Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

[Lead]

Depends on how many end up running, but you can't have more than 5 on stage and get anything accomplished. If Bush, Rubio, Walker, Christie, Paul, Perry, Huck are all running you need to really whittle down the numbers and quick. I'd guess all will be invited to the first one, but then after than you'll just have the true contenders. I guess it would be hard to marginalize a sitting US Senator though.

There are only nine debates this cycle compared to like 16 in 2012. I'm sure the first debate is going to allow close to 10 to start off and then dwindle it from there based on poll numbers. Cruz will have a chance to make a debate.

 

[Lead]

Let

 

[ShoelessRye]

^And Christie being so moderate - he's basically Huntsman with personality.

 

[Lead]

^And Christie being so moderate - he's basically Huntsman with personality.

Huntsman record is less shady. Also, I think it's hard when people are on the moderate scale cause it can be for different reasons. I actually like Huntsman most in 2012 but don't care for Christie much.

 

[Makani]

Huntsman record is less shady. Also, I think it's hard when people are on the moderate scale cause it can be for different reasons. I actually like Huntsman most in 2012 but don't care for Christie much.

I had a friend who was big-time on the Huntsman wagon, he hated Romney the whole way through and I admit I got a little joy out of his anger. There will probably be a few surprises in the primary, I wonder if Cruz can win by attrition. I was a little afraid of Walker early, but I think the debates will kill him. These are not good candidates, but it will really play to Hillary's strengths if they put a real hardliner like Cruz up there. Guys like Rubio are actually more interesting matchups. Bush is a real quagmire that I'd love to avoid.

Most interesting part of the graph for me was actually the dichotomy between the public statements and the voting records of the Pauls.

 

[Lead]

I had a friend who was big-time on the Huntsman wagon, he hated Romney the whole way through and I admit I got a little joy out of his anger. There will probably be a few surprises in the primary, I wonder if Cruz can win by attrition. I was a little afraid of Walker early, but I think the debates will kill him. These are not good candidates, but it will really play to Hillary's strengths if they put a real hardliner like Cruz up there. Guys like Rubio are actually more interesting matchups. Bush is a real quagmire that I'd love to avoid.

Most interesting part of the graph for me was actually the dichotomy between the public statements and the voting records of the Pauls.

Yea, I was surprised with that too, especially with Ron.

 

[Makani]

Yea, I was surprised with that too, especially with Ron.

I of course don't have the detailed criteria they used, but the possibilities seem to me to be that they either talk big about some issues to look moderate and then vote hardline conservative, or they believe that way but don't favor the left/moderate attempts to get there. I mean, in the end you have to vote yea or nay, right? And even their public opinions are still right of center. Weird outliers though, I'd like to see more of their system.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Pro legalization drug policy and anti-interventionalist foreign policy views probably both register as "less conservative" while there is little chance to really vote on either to have your vote match your statements. I know both of those stances have wooed some of the progressive left to Rand's side.

 

[Diamond Jim]

Cruz has a legit chance in Iowa but that's about it. He'll be lucky to make it to South Carolina.

 

[Lead]

I of course don't have the detailed criteria they used, but the possibilities seem to me to be that they either talk big about some issues to look moderate and then vote hardline conservative, or they believe that way but don't favor the left/moderate attempts to get there. I mean, in the end you have to vote yea or nay, right? And even their public opinions are still right of center. Weird outliers though, I'd like to see more of their system.

It might be the fact they are libertarian which would mean some social issues could be seen as far left.

 

[Lead]

Pro legalization drug policy and anti-interventionalist foreign policy views probably both register as "less conservative" while there is little chance to really vote on either to have your vote match your statements. I know both of those stances have wooed some of the progressive left to Rand's side.

Yea, I'd say that sums it up.

Cruz has a legit chance in Iowa but that's about it. He'll be lucky to make it to South Carolina.

Hopefully Iowa doesn't waste their influence this cycle. Santorum and Paul were the top guys in 2012. That's laughable. Iowa really is the only reason that guys like Cruz, Carson, Huckabee, and Santorum have chances early on and it always pulls the party right to begin.

 

[Lead]

The curse of being first

Call it the curse of being first.
When Ted Cruz officially launched his presidential bid on Monday, he joined the ranks of a group with a dismal recent track record. No other first-in candidate has won the presidency in the past 15 years, and only one, Al Gore, has even clinched a party nomination.
Story Continued Below

 

[COTUR1@43]

Monday on 'Hannity'
Weekdays @ 10 PM ET

The race for the White House is officially on! Tune in tonight for a 'Hannity' exclusive as Sen. Ted Cruz joins Sean to explain his decision to run for president

 

[Lead]

Monday on 'Hannity'
Weekdays @ 10 PM ET

The race for the White House is officially on! Tune in tonight for a 'Hannity' exclusive as Sen. Ted Cruz joins Sean to explain his decision to run for president

Pretty sure that the talk radio guys (Rush, Beck, Hannity) are for a mix of Walker or Cruz. Beck has been for Cruz. Rush said Walker over Bush. Haven't heard what Hannity has said but I think he said he sees Reagan in Cruz and also likes all the candidates aside from Jeb.

 

[Diamond Jim]

Cruz will run circles around Walker in a debate. He is much more intelligent and has much more charisma.

 

[Lead]

Cruz will run circles around Walker in a debate. He is much more intelligent and has much more charisma.

Walker is going to suffer in debates and Cruz definitely could thrive. I still don't think it's going to turn the tables on the two in the polls. They overlap a little in the groups they are trying to win but not completely.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Cruz will run circles around Walker in a debate. He is much more intelligent and has much more charisma.

Agreed. Walker can perform a decent speech, but he's never been in a tough debate on a national level.

And Cruz goes on tough interviews on CNN & MSNBC and performs very well each time, most recently on Morning Joe -

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Cruz reminds me of Phil Hellmuth.

 

[Diamond Jim]

Cruz reminds me of Phil Hellmuth.

Lack of a chin?

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Lack of a chin?

Perpetual Condescending Prick Face (PCPF)