Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

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I don't think Graham ends up running. But I also think he's using the idea he might in order to keep his name in the news - especially in S.Carolina - so he can play a kingmaker role there of sorts and will look to trade his endorsement for a cabinet gig. So I guess he could run Iowa, NH and do terribly and then drop out before S.Carolina primary and endorse one of the front runners to try and break them away from the pack.

Wasn't Rubio taken under the FP wing of McCain/Graham? Rubio winning SC a week or so before Florida would be a big bounce for Marco and Bush losing Florida would effectively end his candidacy.

I agree SC is going to be a big deal. I really could see a lot of different candidates taking it also. It's not really a lock for any group of candidates, especially if Graham doesn't run which I don't want to believe he will. I agree it's a leverage and media thing. I still believe Cruz's run is simply to bolster his 2018 chances for reelection in Senate.

 

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Jeb fundraiser gets special guest: George W.

Jeb Bush knows he pays a price for his last name, so he might as well fully collect on its benefits too.
On Wednesday, the former Florida governor, who stresses in public appearances that he is his

 

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'You can

 

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16 Years After Scuttled Run, John Kasich Returns to New Hampshire

To hear John Kasich tell it, the last time he was in New Hampshire running for president, he was too young and inexperienced. Sixteen years later, Ohio’s Republican governor says he’s just a regular guy with a big job.

Kasich is on a swing through the U.S. Northeast, saying that what he learned as a congressman, governor and investment banker has given him lessons on addressing the biggest national challenges as he considers whether to try for the White House. Seasoned after his failed 1999 bid, Kasich is testing how his pitch of fiscal prudence and compassion for the needy–sometimes delivered in a brash, off-the-cuff manner–plays in an era of poll-tested messaging.

 

[RetiredWisFighter]

'You can

 

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A politician making some sense AND he's a member of GOP? Wow



Granted this doesn't mean he'll be any good. Look at Obama, runs on transparency is arguably one of the least transparent POTUS ever

Most campaigns hardly reflect their policy in office. Bush ran on a foreign policy that was very anti-war prone but 9/11 changed that completely. Though I favor what Obama did in foreign policy, he was promising quicker withdrawal rates than Hillary which helped him a lot in the primaries. Troops weren't withdrawn that quick.

It's disheartening but many of the policies a candidate backs in their campaign will not be what they will do in office. Hell, the GOP has been running on repeal Obamacare for 5-6 years now with the sitting president being a democrat who signed the bill. That's beyond stupid. And then we wonder why we are at a standstill in Washington. It's because the voting public is voting on an issue that can't be changed rather than coming behind a policy of their own.

I think a GOP House and Senate could really pressure Obama into an energy bill. Change the discussion to the science of nuclear plants and the economics of cheap oil/gas and this is when liberals start making far less sense.

Also, they should've been in favor of infrastructure spending during the recession. They still should be for it now. We are falling behind in this department and it should be a staple between both parties on what the government should spend money on.

 

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Jeb Bush

 

[ShoelessRye]

Jeb is surely to stay in to Florida and will likely win the nomination if he wins Florida. Anti-Jeb Republicans better how Rubio runs, and that he's seen as formidable. Because Rubio could win Florida himself or could in the very least take enough of the "Vote for the local Pol" Florida vote whereby another top contender could win with 35-40% of the vote.

 

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Jeb is surely to stay in to Florida and will likely win the nomination if he wins Florida. Anti-Jeb Republicans better how Rubio runs, and that he's seen as formidable. Because Rubio could win Florida himself or could in the very least take enough of the "Vote for the local Pol" Florida vote whereby another top contender could win with 35-40% of the vote.

What states do you think he gets before Florida?

I think Rubio has a chance at winning but Jeb really does mess up his campaign a lot.

 

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Jeb is surely to stay in to Florida and will likely win the nomination if he wins Florida. Anti-Jeb Republicans better how Rubio runs, and that he's seen as formidable. Because Rubio could win Florida himself or could in the very least take enough of the "Vote for the local Pol" Florida vote whereby another top contender could win with 35-40% of the vote.

Didn't McCain pull off something in 08 where he had his delegates vote for Huckabee to prevent Romney the win? I can't remember the circumstance but was that a different format than a state like Florida? You'd think other candidates must really favor Rubio running by the time Florida comes around.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Jeb's best chance before Florida is New Hampshire. I believe Nevada is before Fla as well and Jeb could do well there. I don't think Jeb has a chance in Iowa or SC. Regardless if he doesn't win one before Florida, Florida is winner take all with a huge amount of delegate votes at stake - as long as nobody else is winning all three before Fla, I think Jeb would vault to the lead of delegate count if he won Florida.

 

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Megyn Kelly presses Ted Cruz: Can you win?

 

[ShoelessRye]

Another thing to consider is Operation Chaos attempts by Dems. With no compelling primary on Dem side, Dem voters in open states could just ask for a GOP ballot at the primary polling station and vote for the contender who they feel would be weakest against Clinton or just for the guy polling in second place in order to try to get him a win and hope to extend the primary a bit longer. Who knows if this ever has any effect, but early on when the vote will be split 5-6 ways amongst legit top names it could make the difference in Florida where the difference between first and second could be 1-2 percentage points.

 

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Jeb's best chance before Florida is New Hampshire. I believe Nevada is before Fla as well and Jeb could do well there. I don't think Jeb has a chance in Iowa or SC. Regardless if he doesn't win one before Florida, Florida is winner take all with a huge amount of delegate votes at stake - as long as nobody else is winning all three before Fla, I think Jeb would vault to the lead of delegate count if he won Florida.

Florida is pushed back to March 15th. They had early primary's twice in a row and are being penalized for it with March 15th being the earliest they are allowed. So a lot of states are in play before they even come into the picture.

I could be wrong but that's what I read/
http://election.dos.state.fl.us/calendar/elecdate.sht
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EDIT: Seems like it's an arguement between Florida GOP for March 1st and National GOP for March 15th
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/why-florida-gop-will-follow-rnc-orders-on-2016s-presidential-primary/2210023

If Jeb didn't with NH, who do you think it would go to? I can't see Walker picking it up. Maybe Rubio but still not sure.

 

[ShoelessRye]

NH will go to a NE Republican type. If Christie runs, I think he takes NH.

 

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Another thing to consider is Operation Chaos attempts by Dems. With no compelling primary on Dem side, Dem voters in open states could just ask for a GOP ballot at the primary polling station and vote for the contender who they feel would be weakest against Clinton or just for the guy polling in second place in order to try to get him a win and hope to extend the primary a bit longer. Who knows if this ever has any effect, but early on when the vote will be split 5-6 ways amongst legit top names it could make the difference in Florida where the difference between first and second could be 1-2 percentage points.

True. They would need a consensus on which candidate is worse though. If they didn't agree, it could be split 2-3 ways between guys like Carson, Cruz, Huckabee and wouldn't matter.

 

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NH will go to a NE Republican type. If Christie runs, I think he takes NH.

I keep forgetting to put Christie in the mix. He has been out of the spotlight recently. I wonder when he will announce. I want April to cover most of the announcements.

 

[ShoelessRye]

^I think he's waiting on Bridgegate report/findings.

 

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Speaking of Christie announcing:

Chris Christie says Ted Cruz's announcement won't impact his 2016 decision timetable

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said Monday he won't rush to make up his mind about whether to run for the White House, and said Texas Senator Ted Cruz's first-out-the-gate announcement is not a factor in his timing.

Speaking on his monthly radio show, the Republican governor said there are "still things I'm working through and talking to my family about." He said he expects to make a decision in late spring to early summer.

Cruz became the first major 2016 contender to declare himself a candidate earlier Monday.

No Chris Christie 2016 Announcement Soon

 

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Chris Christie Returns to Town Halls as Polls Show Appeal Sagging

For Chris Christie, all roads to the White House run through New Jersey.

The governor, trailing Jeb Bush and Scott Walker in polls measuring the popularity of potential Republican presidential candidates, has resumed home-state appearances as he seeks to score political victories. Since February, he