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Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Lead, Jan 16, 2015.

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  1. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    Running
    Jeb Bush (Former FL Gov.)
    Ted Cruz (Current TX Sen.)
    Ben Carson (Neurosurgeon...)
    Rick Santorum (Former PA Sen.)
    Rand Paul (Current KY Sen.)



    Potential Runners
    Scott Walker (Current WI Gov.)
    Chris Christie (Current NJ Gov.)
    Marco Rubio (Current FL Sen.)
    Lindsay Graham (Current SC Sen.)
    Bobby Jindal (Current LA Gov.)
    George Pataki (Former NY Gov.)
    Mike Pence (Current IN Gov)
    Rick Perry (Current TX Gov.)
    John Kasnich (Current OH Gov.)
    Mike Huckabee (Former AK Gov.)
    Carly Fiorina (Former HP CEO)


    Out
    Mitt Romney (Former MA Gov.)
    Paul Ryan (Current WI Housemember)
    Rob Portman (Current OH Sen.)
    Jon Huntsman Jr. (Former UT Gov.)



    2016 RCP Poll Data

    Previous 2012 Primary Data
    [​IMG]

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    Last edited: Apr 7, 2015
  2. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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  3. AlucardNatasrd

    AlucardNatasrd Blue Belt

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    Romney, Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson have definitively come out in saying "I'm running for president"?

    I know Romney has more or less come out and said so, but Jeb Bush and Ben Carson?
     
  4. 44nutman

    44nutman The Original Nut of Sherdog

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    The GOP better be careful with so many moderates running. It opens the door for a nutjob like Cruz or Santorum to take the nomination.
    I live is Florida Jeb was a good governor. I voted for him. The thing that hurts Jeb is he has GW stink on him.
     
  5. samhain222000

    samhain222000 White Belt

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    Carson would be wasting his time running. No pro second amendment conservative will vote for him.
     
  6. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    February 2nd-February 8th News

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    Will Rand Paul's calm and reserved demeanor hurt his run for presidency?

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    Ben Carson's grass root campaign has already raised 12 million and more with a vast amount of under $200 donations

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    [​IMG]

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    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Carson has been the only one I believe. I'm just adding Bush and Romney because they already began the "serious consideration" speeches and having meetings with huge donors this past month.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2015
  7. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    I can't find the article but it explained that this year is going to be very different from 2012 since we only had Romney in the moderate bracket while all the other (mostly tea party/hard right) candidates fought for each other's votes. That's why each one of them had brief surges above Romney but would fall back.

    If the moderate votes and funding is spread across Romeny, Bush, Christie and Walker (Koch Brothers), that really gives other brackets in the field like Santorum/Huckabee (Evangelical Right), Cruz/Carson/Perry (Tea Party/Hard Right), and Rand Paul (Semi-Libertarian) an advantage compared to 2012. It also may hurt younger less established candidates like Marco Rubio and possibly some of the lesser know GOP governors.
     
  8. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    He announced he was running in 2014. Already made 12 million in funding from Tea Party PACs and is hiring campaign employees in Iowa. Guys like him are starting really early for the donations since they can't compete side by side with the bigger names in funding.
     
  9. ShoelessRye

    ShoelessRye Gold Belt

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    I thought Portman had officially declared his candidacy - did he change his mind?

    Jeb is surely running. Carson is a nobody who will get smoked and not get 1% of the primary votes. I don't think Romney will run, but is trying to be the "party elder" given that George W and Cheney can't do it and George HW Bush is too ill these days.

    Rubio will not run if Jeb is because Rubio would need Florida to have any chance at momentum and Jeb will lock down Florida.

    I don't think Christie will end up running either - too much baggage. His time was in 2012 and he chickened out and missed his chance I think. He won't want fellow Repubs attacking him on his bullying, on Bridgegate, on his less than hard right stances on issues. I think he'll endorse the favorite early and hope to be in their cabinet as a thank you. Ie endorse Jeb Bush or Scott Walker and then hope he's his AG or something.

    I forsee a three man race - Jeb Bush vs Scott Walker vs Ted Cruz. I don't think the field will be as big as some predict - this is a big election for the GOP and they're not going to be playing games with c-level candidates. The c-level candidates minute of importance will be in who they endorse. I can see Christie, Rubio, Kasich backing Jeb Bush, Ryan, Huckabee, Jindal backing Walker and Cruz will have all his crazies.

    Rand Paul won't run in the primary BUT I think there is a real possibility he runs a third party candidacy if it's a Bush vs Clinton election because I think enough folks on both sides would be put off by that idea that he could poll over 10% and would then get included in the Presidential debates.
     
  10. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Rob Portman won't run for presidency

    Walker is really staying low while everything shakes out. I think he has a much better opportunity than Christie in surviving. I think he appeals to the moderate and core side of the party which might be huge for him in the primaries as I'm unsure there are other people in that spot.

    You're Bush/Walker/Cruz idea is pretty fair. Don't be surprised if Huckabee or Santorum have momentum though. That branch of the party still exists and won Santorum six states in 2012. Makes me cringe.
     
  11. ShoelessRye

    ShoelessRye Gold Belt

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    ^Portman was doomed by his pro-gay marriage stance and that he's boring as all hell anyways. I could have sworn I heard he had declared though. Maybe some in the press jumped the gun or something.

    Walker couild make real noise if he gets the big money backing early. He should have the Koch's, but he'll need evangelicals in his corner early to help him win Iowa - because Jeb probably wins NH and surely Florida, so Walker would need Iowa and S.Carolina. Walker has a LOT of credentials the Republican voter would love - union buster like his hero Reagan, rejected Obamacare monies, voter ID law - elected and re-elected THREE times in federally BLUE Wisconsin. I think Huck will endorse Walker early in the process because Bush will be seen as too socially moderate. But admittedly I don't know too much about how much of a cultural warrior Walker is. Walker could tap into the "No American Royalty" attack vein to take on "another Bush" which would then carry over well into his battle with Hillary Clinton.
     
  12. sabretruth

    sabretruth Too many notes

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  13. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    "Seriously considering" It's like people do this as an unofficial announcement to donors. I guess it's so they can make the news multiple times. It's annoying how long Jeb has been saying it.

    I think he has a good position but like you said, the first states make it hard for him to gain momentum unless he knocks Huckabee and Santorum out. I mean, Florida is already a lock for Jeb so he has to get Iowa and the early southern states that Evangelical candidates do better in.

    I think Walker and Paul are the most interesting candidates if they both run. I'm wondering how Paul will fit into the mix. He isn't his father but likely will get that 6% diehard crowd his father brought in in 2012.
     
  14. trainharder

    trainharder Green Belt

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    I'm seriously considering TS. Can my name be in the list.

    But seriously, that's a lot of people to be "considering" to run for prez. There's Jeb, and everyone else please sit the fuck down.
     
  15. ShoelessRye

    ShoelessRye Gold Belt

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    I know in Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder is still playing coy with the idea - but I don't think he runs, but would be a top candidate for any GOP Prez' Cabinet.

    There's an issue with Rand Paul running for both Pres and Senate re-election as Ky law says a person can only appear on ballot for one race. Florida has such a law as well, but only for the general, whereas Ky's is also for the primary. I believe I read where Paul's end around for this would be to not appear on Ky's Presidential Primary ballot.
     
  16. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    I think you would be best running as a write in candidate Trainharder. Get that underground "fight the machine" type crowd. They would understand voting for a forum persona over a greasy politician.

    I don't think it's just Jeb in the sense that it's just Hilary on the other side. I'm almost certain we will not see a Bush v. Clinton election. People don't want that. It's the same reason Hilary didn't win in 2008 and why McCain got steamrolled in the general election. Our demographic wants fresh candidates and that's eventually going to hurt Hilary when the actual primaries and/or general election begins. It's funny because if you look at Bush and Clinton on education, immigration, and Obamacare, their stances don't really conflict much. The biggest difference is Bush thinks Obamacare will fail on it's own and he won't have to repeal it. I think he will ignore that issue entirely.
     
  17. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    I heard that about Paul and Rubio but it seems like they are doing everything possible to show they will be running. Not sure how they plan to get around it. With all the candidates, you almost have to believe that some of these guys are looking for top candidate spots rather than the actual presidency. I think Ryan made a great move not running and staying focused in his chairman position. He may be a lifer for the House or Senate.
     
  18. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Republicans Like Their 2016 Options, Assuming They Avoid Chaos

    To put this in perspective:
    2012 Primary Debates: 20
    2016 Primary Debates: 9

    2012 Start Date: May 5th, 2011
    2016 Start Date: August 2015

    2012 End Date: February 22, 2012
    2016 End Date: February 2016

    They are going for a much tighter and short schedule than last cycle which was criticized for lasting far too long. We had the poll leaders change about 5-6 times before finally getting Romney like we expected.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2015
  19. Hollywood Nicky

    Hollywood Nicky Banned Banned

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    i think romney runs for sure, it's his ego. he wants to be president in the worst way.
     
  20. Nebi

    Nebi Крым наш!

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    Anyone but Hillary Clinton. That woman will start a new war every week.
     
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