Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

[Lead]

Running
Jeb Bush (Former FL Gov.)
Ted Cruz (Current TX Sen.)
Ben Carson (Neurosurgeon...)
Rick Santorum (Former PA Sen.)
Rand Paul (Current KY Sen.)



Potential Runners
Scott Walker (Current WI Gov.)
Chris Christie (Current NJ Gov.)
Marco Rubio (Current FL Sen.)
Lindsay Graham (Current SC Sen.)
Bobby Jindal (Current LA Gov.)
George Pataki (Former NY Gov.)
Mike Pence (Current IN Gov)
Rick Perry (Current TX Gov.)
John Kasnich (Current OH Gov.)
Mike Huckabee (Former AK Gov.)
Carly Fiorina (Former HP CEO)

Out
Mitt Romney (Former MA Gov.)
Paul Ryan (Current WI Housemember)
Rob Portman (Current OH Sen.)
Jon Huntsman Jr. (Former UT Gov.)


2016 RCP Poll Data

Previous 2012 Primary Data

Popular Threads on Candidates
Indiana Governor signs "Religious Freedom" bill into law (updated 3/31)
Ben Carson: Prison's prove being gay is a choice.
Jeb bush listed himself as Hispanic in 2009 voter registration card

March 2nd-March 8th
Jeb Bush hopes his Florida record erases doubts of conservatives
How Jeb Bush’s school reforms really played out in Florida
A $75 million question confronts Republican candidates for 2016
Scott Walker Comes Out in Support of 20 Week Federal Abortion Ban
Marco Rubio tax plan takes aim at big business break
Ben Carson’s general election strategy
With Eye on 2016, Rand Paul Courts Sheldon Adelson
Marco Rubio Has Lots of Ideas, but Few Legislative Victories
Christie blasts back to defend Exxon settlement
How the Other Candidates Plan to Kill Scott Walker's Candidacy
Kelly Ayotte Hosting Graham, Bush for Private N.H. Events

 

[Lead]

CPAC 2015
CPAC 2015 LIVE BLOG -CNN
CPAC SOUNDBYTES -NATIONAL JOURNAL
Ted Cruz Wants to #Disrupt Washington
Ted Cruz at CPAC: Beware the

 

[AlucardNatasrd]

Romney, Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson have definitively come out in saying "I'm running for president"?

I know Romney has more or less come out and said so, but Jeb Bush and Ben Carson?

 

[44nutman]

The GOP better be careful with so many moderates running. It opens the door for a nutjob like Cruz or Santorum to take the nomination.
I live is Florida Jeb was a good governor. I voted for him. The thing that hurts Jeb is he has GW stink on him.

 

[samhain222000]

Carson would be wasting his time running. No pro second amendment conservative will vote for him.

 

[Lead]

February 2nd-February 8th News

How Rand Paul bombed at Koch brothers gathering

Paul: Vaccines can cause 'profound mental disorders'
Rand Paul recent comments about the safety of vaccines is getting him grilled by the media.

Romney Exit Opens the Field
Who wins and loses out of Romney's exit

Look Who's Terrified of Marco Rubio
The conflict with having a GOP candidate ready for Rubio's senate seat is he stays in the presidential race

Where 2016 GOPers stand on vaccinations

The GOP Elite Puts Its Foot Down Opinion on how 2012's field is a shadow to the contenders in 2016's race

Priebus: Hopefuls must hit ‘thresholds’ to join Republican debates
Information from Priebus on how the debates will be handled

The Kissinger primary
GOP Hopefuls work to court Kissinger's endorsement

Walker targets Romney donors, Jeb turf
Just as Walker successful raised large campaign contributions for his reelections, he will be looking for the same with his run for President

Chris Christie's London trip was a disaster
Christie's attempt to build foreign policy credentials fall flat with trip to London

Jeb Bush Debuts 'Reform Conservative' Image in Detroit
Can Jeb Rebrand 'Bush'?
Bush begins mission to stand out his policies as fixing Democratic issues with right of center solutions as well as restore the family name

Another GOP circus in 2016?
The leftovers proposing a 2016 run

January 26th-February 1st News
What’s Behind Rand Paul’s Staffing Strategy?
Details on Rand Paul's campaign staff's credentials

Chris Christie to Tap Ex-Romney Aide to Lead Iowa Effort

Daddy issues: Are Ron Paul’s hard-core stands a problem for son’s presidential bid?
Will Ron Paul's ideology harm Rand Paul's hopes for presidency?

The rise of 'scam PACs'
Grassroot donors easily are being scammed by PACs that most compensate the advisers with little to nothing done for campaigns

Reports: Mitt Romney to announce decision on 2016

Mitt Romney will not run in 2016

January 18th-24th News
Rand Paul Plays it Cool
Will Rand Paul's calm and reserved demeanor hurt his run for presidency?

Can Scott Walker's Unflashy Style Break through the 2016 Presidential Race?
Similar article to the one of Rand above. Walker is apart of rustbelt politicans who often are seen as "too nice" when it comes to the national stage (Ex. Tim Pawlenty)

Cash is Piling Up for Ben Carson
Ben Carson's grass root campaign has already raised 12 million and more with a vast amount of under $200 donations

4 GOP hopefuls expected to attend Koch event
Koch brothers inviting Rubio, Paul, Walker, and Cruz for gathering with donors

Scott Walker Heading to New Hampshire

Rating 2016 candidates by donors busts conventional wisdom

Rubio moving towards 2016 bid
Rubio add Anna Rogers, current finance director of American Crossroads, to his political action committee.

Jeb's invisible man strategy
Insight into Bush gaining donors before the primary cycle

Cruz-Paul-Rubio event previews GOP foreign policy debate
Differences in foreign policy issues between three possible GOP candidates

GOP hopefuls weigh in on gay marriage
The record each potential candidate has on gay marriage at this point

Scott Walker adds key Iowa strategist to 2016 team
Walker adds strategist that helped Huckabee win Iowa in 2008

Team Rubio message to supporters: We're ready to run

January 16th News
Chris Christie, Odd Man Out?
With Romney and Bush in the field, will there be room for another establishment moderate like Christie?

RNC announces nine presidential debates Debates will begin August in Ohio

In a packed GOP Presidential Field, Is There Room for Rubio? Rubio has the potential to not be classified in any generic grouping for this field of candidates. Will this be an advantage/disadvantage?

2016 Hopefuls Skirt Leaders of the GOP
Rand Paul and Marco Rubio skip GOP party leaders annual retreat for fundraising visits; Ted Cruz has rival retreat with Heritage Foundation as a statement to the leaders of the GOP.

Is Mitt Romney for Real?

In the 15-minute speech, he sounded very much like a potential contender, laying out a vision of where he said the Republican Party should go as it looks to toward the 2016 election. In 2012 his detractors dismissed Romney as the candidate of the “1 percent”; on Friday, he said the GOP needs to focus on closing the income gap between rich and poor Americans and lifting people out of poverty.

Romney, moving toward 2016 run, outlines vision to eradicate poverty
Seems like Romney is trying to rebrand himself for 2016 talking about Poverty to improve his image of only caring for the rich in 2012.

Mitt Romney's 2016 pitch: I'm a foreign policy prophet
Another point Romney will likely be running on as many of the candidates are already indirectly attacking him by saying the GOP needs something new.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Romney, Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson have definitively come out in saying "I'm running for president"?

I know Romney has more or less come out and said so, but Jeb Bush and Ben Carson?

Carson has been the only one I believe. I'm just adding Bush and Romney because they already began the "serious consideration" speeches and having meetings with huge donors this past month.

 

[Lead]

The GOP better be careful with so many moderates running. It opens the door for a nutjob like Cruz or Santorum to take the nomination.
I live is Florida Jeb was a good governor. I voted for him. The thing that hurts Jeb is he has GW stink on him.

I can't find the article but it explained that this year is going to be very different from 2012 since we only had Romney in the moderate bracket while all the other (mostly tea party/hard right) candidates fought for each other's votes. That's why each one of them had brief surges above Romney but would fall back.

If the moderate votes and funding is spread across Romeny, Bush, Christie and Walker (Koch Brothers), that really gives other brackets in the field like Santorum/Huckabee (Evangelical Right), Cruz/Carson/Perry (Tea Party/Hard Right), and Rand Paul (Semi-Libertarian) an advantage compared to 2012. It also may hurt younger less established candidates like Marco Rubio and possibly some of the lesser know GOP governors.

 

[Lead]

Carson would be wasting his time running. No pro second amendment conservative will vote for him.

He announced he was running in 2014. Already made 12 million in funding from Tea Party PACs and is hiring campaign employees in Iowa. Guys like him are starting really early for the donations since they can't compete side by side with the bigger names in funding.

 

[ShoelessRye]

I thought Portman had officially declared his candidacy - did he change his mind?

Jeb is surely running. Carson is a nobody who will get smoked and not get 1% of the primary votes. I don't think Romney will run, but is trying to be the "party elder" given that George W and Cheney can't do it and George HW Bush is too ill these days.

Rubio will not run if Jeb is because Rubio would need Florida to have any chance at momentum and Jeb will lock down Florida.

I don't think Christie will end up running either - too much baggage. His time was in 2012 and he chickened out and missed his chance I think. He won't want fellow Repubs attacking him on his bullying, on Bridgegate, on his less than hard right stances on issues. I think he'll endorse the favorite early and hope to be in their cabinet as a thank you. Ie endorse Jeb Bush or Scott Walker and then hope he's his AG or something.

I forsee a three man race - Jeb Bush vs Scott Walker vs Ted Cruz. I don't think the field will be as big as some predict - this is a big election for the GOP and they're not going to be playing games with c-level candidates. The c-level candidates minute of importance will be in who they endorse. I can see Christie, Rubio, Kasich backing Jeb Bush, Ryan, Huckabee, Jindal backing Walker and Cruz will have all his crazies.

Rand Paul won't run in the primary BUT I think there is a real possibility he runs a third party candidacy if it's a Bush vs Clinton election because I think enough folks on both sides would be put off by that idea that he could poll over 10% and would then get included in the Presidential debates.

 

[Lead]

I thought Portman had officially declared his candidacy - did he change his mind?

Jeb is surely running. Carson is a nobody who will get smoked and not get 1% of the primary votes. I don't think Romney will run, but is trying to be the "party elder" given that George W and Cheney can't do it and George HW Bush is too ill these days.

Rubio will not run if Jeb is because Rubio would need Florida to have any chance at momentum and Jeb will lock down Florida.

I don't think Christie will end up running either - too much baggage. His time was in 2012 and he chickened out and missed his chance I think. He won't want fellow Repubs attacking him on his bullying, on Bridgegate, on his less than hard right stances on issues. I think he'll endorse the favorite early and hope to be in their cabinet as a thank you. Ie endorse Jeb Bush or Scott Walker and then hope he's his AG or something.

I forsee a three man race - Jeb Bush vs Scott Walker vs Ted Cruz. I don't think the field will be as big as some predict - this is a big election for the GOP and they're not going to be playing games with c-level candidates. The c-level candidates minute of importance will be in who they endorse. I can see Christie, Rubio, Kasich backing Jeb Bush, Ryan, Huckabee, Jindal backing Walker and Cruz will have all his crazies.

Rand Paul won't run in the primary BUT I think there is a real possibility he runs a third party candidacy if it's a Bush vs Clinton election because I think enough folks on both sides would be put off by that idea that he could poll over 10% and would then get included in the Presidential debates.

Rob Portman won't run for presidency

Walker is really staying low while everything shakes out. I think he has a much better opportunity than Christie in surviving. I think he appeals to the moderate and core side of the party which might be huge for him in the primaries as I'm unsure there are other people in that spot.

You're Bush/Walker/Cruz idea is pretty fair. Don't be surprised if Huckabee or Santorum have momentum though. That branch of the party still exists and won Santorum six states in 2012. Makes me cringe.

 

[ShoelessRye]

^Portman was doomed by his pro-gay marriage stance and that he's boring as all hell anyways. I could have sworn I heard he had declared though. Maybe some in the press jumped the gun or something.

Walker couild make real noise if he gets the big money backing early. He should have the Koch's, but he'll need evangelicals in his corner early to help him win Iowa - because Jeb probably wins NH and surely Florida, so Walker would need Iowa and S.Carolina. Walker has a LOT of credentials the Republican voter would love - union buster like his hero Reagan, rejected Obamacare monies, voter ID law - elected and re-elected THREE times in federally BLUE Wisconsin. I think Huck will endorse Walker early in the process because Bush will be seen as too socially moderate. But admittedly I don't know too much about how much of a cultural warrior Walker is. Walker could tap into the "No American Royalty" attack vein to take on "another Bush" which would then carry over well into his battle with Hillary Clinton.

 

[Deleted member 159002]

Add George Pataki to the list.

http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/george-pataki-for-president/?_r=0

 

[Lead]

Add George Pataki to the list.

http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/george-pataki-for-president/?_r=0

"Seriously considering" It's like people do this as an unofficial announcement to donors. I guess it's so they can make the news multiple times. It's annoying how long Jeb has been saying it.

^Portman was doomed by his pro-gay marriage stance and that he's boring as all hell anyways. I could have sworn I heard he had declared though. Maybe some in the press jumped the gun or something.

Walker couild make real noise if he gets the big money backing early. He should have the Koch's, but he'll need evangelicals in his corner early to help him win Iowa - because Jeb probably wins NH and surely Florida, so Walker would need Iowa and S.Carolina. Walker has a LOT of credentials the Republican voter would love - union buster like his hero Reagan, rejected Obamacare monies, voter ID law - elected and re-elected THREE times in federally BLUE Wisconsin. I think Huck will endorse Walker early in the process because Bush will be seen as too socially moderate. But admittedly I don't know too much about how much of a cultural warrior Walker is. Walker could tap into the "No American Royalty" attack vein to take on "another Bush" which would then carry over well into his battle with Hillary Clinton.

I think he has a good position but like you said, the first states make it hard for him to gain momentum unless he knocks Huckabee and Santorum out. I mean, Florida is already a lock for Jeb so he has to get Iowa and the early southern states that Evangelical candidates do better in.

I think Walker and Paul are the most interesting candidates if they both run. I'm wondering how Paul will fit into the mix. He isn't his father but likely will get that 6% diehard crowd his father brought in in 2012.

 

[trainharder]

I'm seriously considering TS. Can my name be in the list.

But seriously, that's a lot of people to be "considering" to run for prez. There's Jeb, and everyone else please sit the fuck down.

 

[ShoelessRye]

I know in Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder is still playing coy with the idea - but I don't think he runs, but would be a top candidate for any GOP Prez' Cabinet.

There's an issue with Rand Paul running for both Pres and Senate re-election as Ky law says a person can only appear on ballot for one race. Florida has such a law as well, but only for the general, whereas Ky's is also for the primary. I believe I read where Paul's end around for this would be to not appear on Ky's Presidential Primary ballot.

 

[Lead]

I'm seriously considering TS. Can my name be in the list.

But seriously, that's a lot of people to be "considering" to run for prez. There's Jeb, and everyone else please sit the fuck down.

I think you would be best running as a write in candidate Trainharder. Get that underground "fight the machine" type crowd. They would understand voting for a forum persona over a greasy politician.

I don't think it's just Jeb in the sense that it's just Hilary on the other side. I'm almost certain we will not see a Bush v. Clinton election. People don't want that. It's the same reason Hilary didn't win in 2008 and why McCain got steamrolled in the general election. Our demographic wants fresh candidates and that's eventually going to hurt Hilary when the actual primaries and/or general election begins. It's funny because if you look at Bush and Clinton on education, immigration, and Obamacare, their stances don't really conflict much. The biggest difference is Bush thinks Obamacare will fail on it's own and he won't have to repeal it. I think he will ignore that issue entirely.

 

[Lead]

I know in Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder is still playing coy with the idea - but I don't think he runs, but would be a top candidate for any GOP Prez' Cabinet.

There's an issue with Rand Paul running for both Pres and Senate re-election as Ky law says a person can only appear on ballot for one race. Florida has such a law as well, but only for the general, whereas Ky's is also for the primary. I believe I read where Paul's end around for this would be to not appear on Ky's Presidential Primary ballot.

I heard that about Paul and Rubio but it seems like they are doing everything possible to show they will be running. Not sure how they plan to get around it. With all the candidates, you almost have to believe that some of these guys are looking for top candidate spots rather than the actual presidency. I think Ryan made a great move not running and staying focused in his chairman position. He may be a lifer for the House or Senate.

 

[Lead]

Republicans Like Their 2016 Options, Assuming They Avoid Chaos

At the same time, they agreed to limit the number of primary debates to nine sanctioned forums and moved forward with calendar rules aimed at terminating the contest by the end of March — steps designed to ensure a short, orderly process.

The committee has encouraged a front-loading of the primary calendar by allowing states beyond the traditional four that kick off the contest — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — to begin holding winner-take-all primaries on March 15. With the early states staggered throughout February, the idea is to “have about a 60-day primary,” as Mr. Priebus put it.

But conversations here raised the possibility that the new calendar could actually prolong the contest. That is because some Southern states, including delegate-rich Texas, are discussing holding their primaries on March 1. If there is no clear establishment-aligned leader after the initial four contests in February, a distinct possibility, then a Super Tuesday at the beginning of March in Southern states could scatter delegates among a number of conservative candidates.

“This may be the first time there really is a chance since ’76 where you don’t know the outcome before you go into the convention,” said Steve Munisteri, the Texas party chairman, referring to the clash between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan.

“We’re not going to shut down people,” said Mr. Gleason, the Pennsylvania chairman, adding, “We might have 20 people at the first debate.”

Envisioning such a prospect, Mr. Gleason recalibrated. “We don’t want 20,” he said. “We’d have to stretch it out to four hours or something.”

To put this in perspective:
2012 Primary Debates: 20
2016 Primary Debates: 9

2012 Start Date: May 5th, 2011
2016 Start Date: August 2015

2012 End Date: February 22, 2012
2016 End Date: February 2016

They are going for a much tighter and short schedule than last cycle which was criticized for lasting far too long. We had the poll leaders change about 5-6 times before finally getting Romney like we expected.

 

[Hollywood Nicky]

i think romney runs for sure, it's his ego. he wants to be president in the worst way.

 

[Nebi]

Anyone but Hillary Clinton. That woman will start a new war every week.