Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

[RetiredWisFighter]

That IS funny. I think you're in the minority.

If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to vote GOP-only, I'd go with Jeb or Walker.

Jeb = no, sour taste from last Bush

Walker = lol more of the same middle aged guy who gives tax breaks to the rich while spending us into oblivion but because it isn't on social programs he's a "conservative"

 

[Lead]

That IS funny. I think you're in the minority.

If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to vote GOP-only, I'd go with Jeb or Walker.

Hilary actually has a decently high approval rating among republicans (19% in one poll I saw). I understand once the campaign actually begins that will change a lot but at this point, the majority of the country knows she is the most qualified for 16

 

[Diamond Jim]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/jeb-bush-fundraiser-100k-per-ticket-115086.html

Jeb Bush will be raising money on Wall St Wednesday at a 100k per ticket Park Avenue event.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

I think Jeb's Bush stigma will start to wear off as the months go by.

It already IS wearing off. A few years ago, him running was unthinkable because of what his brother did. Today he's leading Republican polls.

 

[Octavian]

That IS funny. I think you're in the minority.

If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to vote GOP-only, I'd go with Jeb or Walker.

Jeb is by FAR the least of the evils out of that list... he's probably, behind closed doors (or in the open, depending on how brave he is), socially moderate to progressive. He's also probably not a "drown the federal government in the bathtub" type of Norquist Republican.

 

[Octavian]

I think Jeb's Bush stigma will start to wear off as the months go by.

It already IS wearing off. A few years ago, him running was unthinkable because of what his brother did. Today he's leading Republican polls.

But again... remember, that's a Republican poll... those are probably people that proudly voted for GW the first time and indignantly, unable to admit wrong-doing, voted for him a second time. The latest election was yet another referendum on that phenomenon - much of our national electorate has remained concretely firm in its vote and stance. The change comes form evolving demographics and young voters coming of age.

 

[Lead]

Jeb Bush faces plenty of early warning signs

We've seen a smattering of new polls of the nascent 2016 campaign in recent days.

The good news for Jeb Bush: Most of them show him as a front-runner.

The bad news: There's plenty of bad news.

 

[Ayin]

I honestly don't really know much about the Republican party's plan to fix the immigration issue in the US (or even how much of a true 'issue' it is for the country), but I do read in a few of those articles that Jeb Bush seems to at least have a plan (or support a plan) that is fairly well filled out, and that his plan/support of that plan is only going to hurt him with Republican voters.

Does another Republican candidate have a well developed counter-proposal/plan that IS widely supported by their voters?

 

[UpaLoompa]

Does another Republican candidate have a well developed counter-proposal/plan that IS widely supported by their voters?

Fences, walls, shipping them out by train.
Maybe alligators.

 

[Ayin]

Fences, walls, shipping them out by train.
Maybe alligators.

So, would that be an escalated version of what border states (on the US side along the US/Mexico border) have been doing for some time now?

 

[UpaLoompa]

So, would that be an escalated version of what border states (on the US side along the US/Mexico border) have been doing for some time now?

Not quite, see the trains would go to camps where those being deported first work off the costs of their transportation. Perhaps they'd be called work camps.

As far as I can tell that seems to be the route the GOP would like to go.

 

[Lead]

I honestly don't really know much about the Republican party's plan to fix the immigration issue in the US (or even how much of a true 'issue' it is for the country), but I do read in a few of those articles that Jeb Bush seems to at least have a plan (or support a plan) that is fairly well filled out, and that his plan/support of that plan is only going to hurt him with Republican voters.

Does another Republican candidate have a well developed counter-proposal/plan that IS widely supported by their voters?

From what I see, Jeb, Rubio, and Walker all want a path to citizenship at this point. I don't see there being a large difference in opinions with this issue once we get to the GE.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

But again... remember, that's a Republican poll... those are probably people that proudly voted for GW the first time and indignantly, unable to admit wrong-doing, voted for him a second time. The latest election was yet another referendum on that phenomenon - much of our national electorate has remained concretely firm in its vote and stance. The change comes form evolving demographics and young voters coming of age.

Yeah, any Republican (or Democratic) nominee is pretty much guaranteed 40-44% of the votes just based on party affiliation (assuming there's no 3rd party candidate). It's about getting those extra 4-9 percentage points.

I honestly give Jeb a decent chance to get those few points. The Republican party is so extreme that when a moderate pops up, people will be drawn to them. Jeb seems like an old-school Republican which a lot of people think is ideal because they're "fiscally responsible" while not being fanatic about social issues.

The far right will bitch and moan about Jeb's liberal leanings but they'll fall in line.

Plus, there may be Democratic fatigue. Democrats haven't won the White House three elections in a row in several decades.

Fences, walls, shipping them out by train.
Maybe alligators.

I'm too lazy to look it up but I'm pretty sure that even Republican voters showed a slight majority in favor of the Dream Act or some sort of legalization path for undocumented children.

Elected Republicans are another matter. There's only a handful that entertain that idea. The rest firmly believe in 15th century-style mass expulsion, or in making their lives so unbearable here that they have no choice but to leave on their own.

 

[UpaLoompa]

I'm too lazy to look it up but I'm pretty sure that even Republican voters showed a slight majority in favor of the Dream Act or some sort of legalization path for undocumented children.

Elected Republicans are another matter. There's only a handful that entertain that idea. The rest firmly believe in 15th century-style mass expulsion, or in making their lives so unbearable here that they have no choice but to leave on their own.

While that may hold for Republican voters in general, it doesn't hold for primary voters.

 

[Ayin]

From what I see, Jeb, Rubio, and Walker all want a path to citizenship at this point. I don't see there being a large difference in opinions with this issue once we get to the GE.

So would you say it's a non-issue once the election actually gets under-way? It seemed to me from reading here and elsewhere that many people who identify strongly as Republicans are very strongly against citizenship for people who are already in the USA, but if most of the likely candidates for their party are for it, will it just not be much of an issue?

 

[Lead]

So would you say it's a non-issue once the election actually gets under-way? It seemed to me from reading here and elsewhere that many people who identify strongly as Republicans are very strongly against citizenship for people who are already in the USA, but if most of the likely candidates for their party are for it, will it just not be much of an issue?

For the GOP, the top candidates are on board with immigration. Most of the top guys in the party want an immigration bill as well. The problem is, the GOP has a conflict of interest between two groups they pander to, big business and the southern blue collar working class. Big business wants cheap labor while the other group wants more jobs available to them.

I think it will definitely be an issue in the primaries and brought up frequently. However, once we get to the GE, I think the differences in opinions between the two candidates will be more rhetoric than anything. The GOP candidate will talk about "a path" so it doesn't seem like outright amnesty and better border security. The Dem will talk about complete amnesty without much considerations. Either way, this issue is reaching a close once 2016 ends as legislation will be made.

 

[Lead]

Yeah, any Republican (or Democratic) nominee is pretty much guaranteed 40-44% of the votes just based on party affiliation (assuming there's no 3rd party candidate). It's about getting those extra 4-9 percentage points.

I honestly give Jeb a decent chance to get those few points. The Republican party is so extreme that when a moderate pops up, people will be drawn to them. Jeb seems like an old-school Republican which a lot of people think is ideal because they're "fiscally responsible" while not being fanatic about social issues.

The far right will bitch and moan about Jeb's liberal leanings but they'll fall in line.

Plus, there may be Democratic fatigue. Democrats haven't won the White House three elections in a row in several decades.


I'm too lazy to look it up but I'm pretty sure that even Republican voters showed a slight majority in favor of the Dream Act or some sort of legalization path for undocumented children.

Elected Republicans are another matter. There's only a handful that entertain that idea. The rest firmly believe in 15th century-style mass expulsion, or in making their lives so unbearable here that they have no choice but to leave on their own.

I really think we can never see a landslide election again the way we did in the 80's with the way our media is. If Obama couldn't seal a complete landslide like that, no one is pulling that off for a long time.

Top republicans go farther than entertaining the idea. Boehner, Bush, Walker, Rubio (formed legistlation to actually get it done). I think Romney's campaign would've been far more dangerous if he took to immigration. Boehner is caught up right now in politics because he's trying to time the debate while also opposing Obama's executive actions. It's leading to a disaster for this new congress. We have a senate obsessed with the Keystone Pipeline bill and a house trying to undo Obama's executive orders that actually just help delay the debate.



Can This Republican Win the Immigration Fight that Marco Rubio Couldn't?
Another Republican Cuban congressman working on an immigration bill as Rubio did.

 

[Ayin]

Can This Republican Win the Immigration Fight that Marco Rubio Couldn't?
Another Republican Cuban congressman working on an immigration bill as Rubio did.

That quick article really seems to show the difficulty of the issue for the party. Here's a guy who represents an area where that position is popular, so it's a good idea he support the concept and tie his party to supporting actions moving towards it, while actively opposing actually implementing it, but needing to frame his opposition to it not being against the concept, but the system of implementation (that system seemingly being necessary as too many in his party oppose the concept for it to be entered into any other way).

 

[Lead]

That quick article really seems to show the difficulty of the issue for the party. Here's a guy who represents an area where that position is popular, so it's a good idea he support the concept and tie his party to supporting actions moving towards it, while actively opposing actually implementing it, but needing to frame his opposition to it not being against the concept, but the system of implementation (that system seemingly being necessary as too many in his party oppose the concept for it to be entered into any other way).

The better translation is the GOP wants a Republican president to pass the immigration bill and will sit on it until Obama leaves. Dems are at fault with this stuff too. They pissed on Rubio's bill before it even had a chance. Both parties want the credit of passing immigration which results in stalemate,

 

[Lead]

It's not GOP stuff but thought I'd post this:

First on CNN: Philadelphia wins bid to host the 2016 Democratic National Convention

Looks like Ohio and Penn are getting recognition.