Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

[Lead]

Who's going to win Iowa and N.H.? Introducing The POLITICO Caucus

This is one of several intriguing findings in the debut survey of The POLITICO Caucus. More than 100 of the most plugged-in activists, operatives and elected officials in Iowa and New Hampshire have agreed to answer a weekly survey over the next year, which will be published here every Friday. It

 

[JDragon]

Something deep in me says Americans won't elect another Bush.

 

[Lead]

Something deep in me says Americans won't elect another Bush.

I'd really question this countries integrity if we allowed a Bush v. Clinton GE. I'm be even more surprised if Jeb beat Hilary.

 

[JDragon]

I'd really question this countries integrity if we allowed a Bush v. Clinton GE. I'm be even more surprised if Jeb beat Hilary.

I haven't read through this thread and I do not always follow American domestic politics. But the way I see it, this is gonna happen. I mean, Hillary appears to be a lock, and looking at the Republican candidate list, everything in me screams OMGWTF. So many unelectable and already burned names. Jeb Bush will be the Republican candidate IMO.

 

[Lead]

As Scott Walker mulls White House bid, questions linger over college exit

Scott Walker was gone. Dropped out. And in the spring of his senior year.
In 1990, that news stunned his friends at Marquette University. Walker, the campus

 

[Lead]

I haven't read through this thread and I do not always follow American domestic politics. But the way I see it, this is gonna happen. I mean, Hillary appears to be a lock, and looking at the Republican candidate list, everything in me screams OMGWTF. So many unelectable and already burned names. Jeb Bush will be the Republican candidate IMO.

I'm not saying it isn't possible. It's very hard to count Jeb out with his weight in Florida. However, he isn't even considered the sole frontrunner right now and has been the guy to unofficially announce his candidacy at this point.

I think it's very different from past elections we've seen with fundraising. I don't think Jeb will have a huge advantage in funding. The best hope he has is this election could be like 2012 with a establishment v. non-establishment vote but that doesn't even work as I think guys like Christie, Rubio and even Walker can dip into those votes.

 

[ShoelessRye]

As Scott Walker mulls White House bid, questions linger over college exit

I don't think this will really hurt him - especially in the GOP primary. He can cast himself as the everyman against the Policital Dynastic, affluent, highly educated Jeb Bush. Especially if he left for ill parent or out of money - but even a "I had enough of school and wanted to work" excuse isn't a bad one in that most folks who never finished college decided pretty much along the same lines that they were done with schooling, and even folks with a degree by the end were damn glad they got that out of the way. School isn't for everybody, and George W. Bush won in large because he played the everyman very well - Jeb doesn't have that ability/quality.

Now if he dropped out because of some scandal or something than that would hurt him. And it's not like he claimed to have a degree or anything. He seems pretty honest about it - was burnt out/tired of school and wanted to work with the idea of going back later but then life happened and he was successful without the degree and raising a family etc and he simply never got around to it.

 

[Lead]

I don't think this will really hurt him - especially in the GOP primary. He can cast himself as the everyman against the Policital Dynastic, affluent, highly educated Jeb Bush. Especially if he left for ill parent or out of money - but even a "I had enough of school and wanted to work" excuse isn't a bad one in that most folks who never finished college decided pretty much along the same lines that they were done with schooling, and even folks with a degree by the end were damn glad they got that out of the way. School isn't for everybody, and George W. Bush won in large because he played the everyman very well - Jeb doesn't have that ability/quality.

Now if he dropped out because of some scandal or something than that would hurt him. And it's not like he claimed to have a degree or anything. He seems pretty honest about it - was burnt out/tired of school and wanted to work with the idea of going back later but then life happened and he was successful without the degree and raising a family etc and he simply never got around to it.

This downfall is actually his strength for the candidates he's going to be running against. He already is chiming the message that America needs new candidates and names to run the country in 2016. He easily can have this contribute to not being apart of the insiders/establishment and representing the people. For Jeb in the primaries, it likely will work very well. In the GE with Hilary, probably much less since Hilary I think can brag far more about her credentials than Jeb can.

 

[Lead]

Scott Walker

 

[Diamond Jim]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/poll-chris-christie-approval-ratings-115173.html

Christie's approval rating has hit a new low. 53% of New Jersey voters find the Governor unfavorable.

 

[Lead]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/poll-chris-christie-approval-ratings-115173.html

Christie's approval rating has hit a new low. 53% of New Jersey voters find the Governor unfavorable.

Are state governor polls better than presidential ones? 53% sounds pretty high for biggest low. Bush and Obama dipped into the 30s at one point.

 

[Lead]

Rand Paul

 

[ShoelessRye]

^Sounds more like an independent run than GOP primary run as well.

He can't run for both President and Senator due to Kentucky rules which state you can only be listed on one ballot for simultaneous elections - so if he decides to run for President, he's basically giving up his Senate seat.

 

[Lead]

^Sounds more like an independent run than GOP primary run as well.

He can't run for both President and Senator due to Kentucky rules which state you can only be listed on one ballot for simultaneous elections - so if he decides to run for President, he's basically giving up his Senate seat.

Yea, I don't understand why he would be thinking independent. It never makes sense and he has stated in the past he is for the party. He's said he would support GOP candidates over libertarian ones challenging seats. Running third party would alienate him and leave him without a Senate seat. I just don't get it.

 

[Makani]

Scott Walker’s yellow politics

One of my favorite contradictions in American politics is the obsession with the "rampant" abuse of welfare and the hypothetical effect on the economy while they try to give the rich every conceivable advantage.

The Republican nomination is far more interesting to me than the Democratic one, just because of the mental gymnastics you have to do to get through the primaries without promising something GE fatal like burning the Social Security building to the ground.

 

[Lead]

One of my favorite contradictions in American politics is the obsession with the "rampant" abuse of welfare and the hypothetical effect on the economy while they try to give the rich every conceivable advantage.

The Republican nomination is far more interesting to me than the Democratic one, just because of the mental gymnastics you have to do to get through the primaries without promising something GE fatal like burning the Social Security building to the ground.

I get annoyed with Welfare drug testing, voter fraud, and Social Security disability fraud. There are countless articles you can read up on to understand this isn't the crazy abuse the GOP makes it out to be.

There are issues that deserve a conversation for reforming. Government can be more efficient and save taxpayers money but when you shift the message finding the savings in "deadbeat" citizens rather than structural changes, you alienate people.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Yea, I don't understand why he would be thinking independent. It never makes sense and he has stated in the past he is for the party. He's said he would support GOP candidates over libertarian ones challenging seats. Running third party would alienate him and leave him without a Senate seat. I just don't get it.

Running for President under GOP banner will leave him without a Senate seat as well. As will being a climate change believer in Coal State Kentucky.

And he's taken three stances that will leave him to the left of Hillary Clinton, which just so happens to be the three liberal factions that mistrust her the most to begin with - National Security/War Mongering, Climate Change, Drug Policy. Does he think these groups will support/fundraise for him in the GOP Primary when these same stances will get him blown out in that same primary?

 

[Lead]

Running for President under GOP banner will leave him without a Senate seat as well. As will being a climate change believer in Coal State Kentucky.

And he's taken three stances that will leave him to the left of Hillary Clinton, which just so happens to be the three liberal factions that mistrust her the most to begin with - National Security/War Mongering, Climate Change, Drug Policy. Does he think these groups will support/fundraise for him in the GOP Primary when these same stances will get him blown out in that same primary?

Yes but how willing will those groups that mistrust Hilary be to support Paul over a Dem primary candidate. There can't be too much opposition to her in her own party with the poll numbers she's receiving.

 

[Makani]

I think there will be a challenger to Hillary from the Dems, maybe Webb, who will push her a fair bit, but when the voters see whomever the GOP is starting to favor, I think we'll see fear of the unknown push them back to Hillary. I don't think many people who would vote Paul just because Hillary is to their right on a few issues. I think many have the suspicion, not unfounded, that Rand's few progressive views won't make up for the rest of the package.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

One of my favorite contradictions in American politics is the obsession with the "rampant" abuse of welfare and the hypothetical effect on the economy while they try to give the rich every conceivable advantage.

It's a combination of massive corporate propaganda, and deep-seated racism.

It's interesting that welfare didn't have its stigma when it was associated with poor, rural whites. It was seen pretty much as what it was: basic assistance for people in poor enough situations to need it. But starting in the 70s and really kicked up in the 80s with Reagan, welfare took a different turn.

Nowadays, "welfare" is pretty much synonymous with "poor black people." It's knee-jerk, really. So while stigmatizing blacks as being violent or less intelligent was THE go-to strategy in decades past, since about the 1980s it's been the lazy-welfare link (the other two are still there though).

When racism and corporatism team up, amazing things are produced.