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Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

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Jack V Savage said:
He also ran in 2008, and was one of the front-runners. He was a great candidate then, too.
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Yea, I'm still surprised McCain surpassed him at the time but he wouldn't have won in either election. The GOP is lucky there is a two term limit.
 
ShoelessRye said:
I think Huckabee could be a good VP running mate for Walker - the guy has some crazy views, but he's damn likable and that likability gives him certain teflon coating that other social fundies don't get the benefit of. Now maybe that would change come the GE, but as the running mate he wouldn't get much real scrutiny/focus, but would hold great appeal to the RR who really didn't like McCain or Romney but turned out in droves for George W. Bush.

Huck could also be a Southern bulwark against Clinton, specifically Bill, making any inroads in the South.
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I feel like the longer time goes on, the less Huckabee is likeable. Most of the news I've read about him recently has mostly made me shake my head. His Iowa speech was really off also. I think I just hate candidates like him and Santorum.
 
Two more New Hampshire polls out

2-3-15

New Hampshire Walker 23 Bush 16 Christie12 Paul11 Huckabee 6 Rubio 8 Cruz 6 Perry 2 Santorum 3
New Hampshire Walker 12 Bush 17 Christie 9 Paul 9 Carson 8 Huckabee 9 Rubio 5 Cruz 4 Perry 2 Santorum 2 Jindal 1
 
^I think Bush/Christie are splitting the moderate vote and when one drops out/doesn't run their support will go mostly to the other. I think Walker/Rubio are probably splitting their vote base as well. Paul has his own, and Huck has his own. But I think the RR eventually goes to Walker/Rubio before Bush/Christie.
 
ShoelessRye said:
I think Huckabee could be a good VP running mate for Walker - the guy has some crazy views, but he's damn likable and that likability gives him certain teflon coating that other social fundies don't get the benefit of. Now maybe that would change come the GE, but as the running mate he wouldn't get much real scrutiny/focus, but would hold great appeal to the RR who really didn't like McCain or Romney but turned out in droves for George W. Bush.

Huck could also be a Southern bulwark against Clinton, specifically Bill, making any inroads in the South.
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Huckabee reminds me if the preacher from Footloose decided to make a run at office.
 
ShoelessRye said:
^I think Bush/Christie are splitting the moderate vote and when one drops out/doesn't run their support will go mostly to the other. I think Walker/Rubio are probably splitting their vote base as well. Paul has his own, and Huck has his own. But I think the RR eventually goes to Walker/Rubio before Bush/Christie.
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That's how I would group it. Its like there are two establishment groups. I still wonder how long Christie will run if he even does. I can see him being stubborn and staying long or doing a early withdrawal if enough heat on him.
 
Diamond Jim said:
Nate Silver Odd's for 2016 nominee.

Bush 25%
Walker 25%
Rubio 12%
Paul 9%
Christie 5%
Jindal 4%
Pence 4%
Huckabee 3%

A bunch at 1% and only one he have 0% is Graham.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/...16-presidential-odds-for-early-february-2015/
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I agree with this other than I really don't know about Paul and Christies spots. I think maybe I'd lower Paul's chances despite his good staff. His policies and reserved demeanor just isn't going to do well in debates. Rubio is definitely #3 in my head.
 
Lead Salad said:
For certain states national polls will be misleading but for the most part, they are a good indicator. Romney held the lead for the majority of 2012 and won.

Iowa has been polling to Huckabee and Walker. Also, that poll has Romney in it. In national polls without Romney, Bush has held a small lead. I'd like to see what it looks like in Iowa for a non Romney poll
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Without Romney not much changes. Same two guys are leading the pack. And the nomination is won state by state so national polls are crap.
 
MyOwnSummer12 said:
Without Romney not much changes. Same two guys are leading the pack. And the nomination is won state by state so national polls are crap.
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Romney had a significant lead if he was factored in and lowered Bush's number. He would've had an affect. I'm surprised Walker surged after Romney bowing out. It's weird the crowd supporting Mitt would move over to Walker.
 
Another GOP circus in 2016?
150207_longshots_sapgty_1160_1160x629.jpg

The Republican 2016 presidential field includes three politicians
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Lead Salad said:
I agree with this other than I really don't know about Paul and Christies spots. I think maybe I'd lower Paul's chances despite his good staff. His policies and reserved demeanor just isn't going to do well in debates. Rubio is definitely #3 in my head.
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Rand is good in debates. Definitely a fighter.

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Lead Salad said:
Romney had a significant lead if he was factored in and lowered Bush's number. He would've had an affect. I'm surprised Walker surged after Romney bowing out. It's weird the crowd supporting Mitt would move over to Walker.
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The staff at the Des Moines Register addressed this and allocated the Romney voters second choice to the totals to see if anything significantly changed; it didn't.

Video here:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2015/01/31/iowa-poll-republicans-fared/22660983/
 
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Lead Salad said:
Another GOP circus in 2016?
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I don't see it this time around. 2012 happened because half the primary voter base didn't like/trust Romney and there was no A-List "Not-Romney" further right option to rally around.

Too many top tier candidates now that will not give any of the lesser candidates any oxygen - Bush, Christie, Walker, Paul, Rubio represent a broad political spectrum of the right to give an A-list candidate to support whatever your politics are. Only one missing is a Religious Right/Evangelical candidate but none of those mentioned clown car candidates will fill that void. Huck would do well with this faction if he ran - if not they probably go to Rubio.

Most of these also-ran long shot types are doing it to raise their national profiles for various reasons and don't really believe they have a shot at the nomination. Maybe it's in hopes of a cabinet spot, maybe it's to sell a book.
 
Jack V Savage said:
To be clear, that's his subjective assessment done for fun. Silver's work is generally very good on election predictions, but it's generally based on serious analysis.
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By the end of the 2012 cycle, he called the map very well. I think that raised his status.
 
MyOwnSummer12 said:
That's where the first caucus is lol. It sets the table for everything to come and winnows the field. Iowa and NH are kind of a big deal.
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I know it's first. It generally goes for an evangelical/more conservative candidate though so it's going to be different in contrast to a national poll when your talking about the difference of Romney's votes affecting Bush.

Santorum led Iowa last cycle with Paul third in the popular vote. Can you not see what I'm saying in a Iowa poll isn't going to tell us how much Romney dropping out affected Bush and Walker?
 
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