Elections GOP Road to 2016 Primary Thread

[Jack V Savage]

By the end of the 2012 cycle, he called the map very well. I think that raised his status.

He did great in 2008 and 2010, too. He was a terrific baseball analyst before that so I was a fan before he even got into writing about politics. But, again, his edge is data analysis, which those numbers didn't come from.

 

[Lead]

He did great in 2008 and 2010, too. He was a terrific baseball analyst before that so I was a fan before he even got into writing about politics. But, again, his edge is data analysis, which those numbers didn't come from.

Yea, I wouldn;t think he'd expect much from data two years before. I just agree with the way he laid it out.

Did he get Kansas right for 2014 midterms? RCP wasnt even close with the polls they got. The media seemed to be completely off with it.

 

[Lead]

Chris Christie's weeklong train wreck

Chris Christie intended to use this week to present himself as a serious figure ready to lead the country at home and abroad.
It didn

 

[Lead]

GOP's 2016 war primary

Sen. Lindsey Graham wants Congress to give President Barack Obama unequivocal authority to fight Islamic State militants. Yet Sen. Ted Cruz says lawmakers should be wary of handing the commander in chief a

 

[Lead]

Rand Paul Seeks Middle (Sorry, Dad)

When Ron Paul ran for president in 2008 and 2012, his rallies were decidedly unpretentious affairs, appropriately suited to the scrappy outsider nature of his campaign.
His son is trying things a little differently.

 

[Lead]

For GOP Presidential Candidates, a Slightly Changing Climate

The 2012 Republican presidential field was largely made up of climate skeptics. As the 2016 field shapes up, that's still the case.

Many of the would-be 2016 contenders will acknowledge that the climate is changing but publicly question the extent to which man-made greenhouse-gas emissions are responsible

 

[Lead]

Jindal's Education Plan: Less Washington, Less Jeb Bush

ouisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is in Washington Monday to unveil a series of education reforms as part of his 2016 presidential preparations. But his proposals call for scaling back Washington's role in education while promoting increased parental choice for children's schools, better measures to assess teacher performance, and more autonomy for individual schools over their own operations.

Most notably, Jindal will reiterate his opposition to Common Core—a not-too-subtle rebuke of GOP presidential front-runner Jeb Bush's support for the educational standards that were once widely supported by most governors of both parties (including Jindal). Without mentioning Bush by name, Jindal told National Journal that "there's a belief among some that don't trust the states, they don't trust parents, [it's] this belief that a centralized elite knows better" by supporting Common Core.

 

[Lead]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/twenty-sixteen/rand-paul-s-iowa-albatross-20150204

Rand Paul opens 2015 with an enviable base of support in Iowa from his father's two presidential bids. But as he tries to broaden his appeal beyond the hard-core liberty activists who lifted Ron Paul to a third place finish in 2012, the senator is encountering an unlikely roadblock: his own campaign team.

One of Paul's two top Iowa operatives, A.J. Spiker, is so deeply disliked and mistrusted by so much of the Iowa Republican establishment that party activists, officials, and strategists say he is damaging Paul's credibility in the state.

 

[Lead]

How Will Jeb Bush Run Differently Than Mitt Romney?

It's easy for Republican presidential candidates to make the case that they're policy-driven and have the best ideas to get the country back on track. It's smart politics to be seen as forward-looking and reform-minded. But the hard part is coming up with detailed specifics that don't alienate key constituencies within the party or the broader electorate.

Jeb Bush is as accomplished a policy thinker on education and immigration as there is in the party. But even his emerging campaign demonstrated the political limits of a "reform conservatism" message with his speech at the Detroit Economic Club on Wednesday.

 

[Lead]

Another New Hampshire Poll
(2/9/15)


New Hampshire President
Bush 16 Paul 13 Walker 12 Christie 10 Carson 6 Huckabee 6 Rubio 5 Cruz 3 Santorum 2 Perry 1 Jindal 3

 

[ShoelessRye]

I think Christie could be getting a taste of Primary Politics and wouldn't be surprised if there is Bushie loyalists pulling some strings behind Christie's no-good-very-bad week+ as he seems to be testing the waters for a 2016 run. Christie afterall would be Bush's main competition for moderate GOP primary votes and if Christie can be convinced not to run than all the better for Bush.

I think Christie missed his chance - the GOP party was desperate for him to run in 2012 and he was scared of running against a sitting President, thinking the party would still be clamoring for him in 2016 and he'd have a cakewalk or something. Now he has to worry about the GOP Primary battles, where there wouldn't be circling of the wagons to give him cover on every thing he says or does but criticism from other Republicans - which will make any attacks stick because they can't be easily written off as "partisan witch hunts". If a Republican attacks him on his corruption/bridgegate, on the crap NJ economy, on his bullying/demeanor, on his luxury spending/helicopter to son's baseball game etc there will be no party wide defence running to the airwaves.

Another issue is that he needs to resign as Gov in order to get banker/Wall Street monies, and until he does that he's going to be at a great fundraising disadvantage - especially considering that WallSt/Banksters would be his primary base of support, especially in the primary.

For all of this, I don't think he ends up running. He missed his chance. I think he will endorse Bush early in hopes of winning favor to get a cabinet gig - or will serve out his term as Gov and then challenge Sen. Melendez next time he's up in 2018.

 

[Lead]

I think Christie could be getting a taste of Primary Politics and wouldn't be surprised if there is Bushie loyalists pulling some strings behind Christie's no-good-very-bad week+ as he seems to be testing the waters for a 2016 run. Christie afterall would be Bush's main competition for moderate GOP primary votes and if Christie can be convinced not to run than all the better for Bush.

I think Christie missed his chance - the GOP party was desperate for him to run in 2012 and he was scared of running against a sitting President, thinking the party would still be clamoring for him in 2016 and he'd have a cakewalk or something. Now he has to worry about the GOP Primary battles, where there wouldn't be circling of the wagons to give him cover on every thing he says or does but criticism from other Republicans - which will make any attacks stick because they can't be easily written off as "partisan witch hunts". If a Republican attacks him on his corruption/bridgegate, on the crap NJ economy, on his bullying/demeanor, on his luxury spending/helicopter to son's baseball game etc there will be no party wide defence running to the airwaves.

Another issue is that he needs to resign as Gov in order to get banker/Wall Street monies, and until he does that he's going to be at a great fundraising disadvantage - especially considering that WallSt/Banksters would be his primary base of support, especially in the primary.

For all of this, I don't think he ends up running. He missed his chance. I think he will endorse Bush early in hopes of winning favor to get a cabinet gig - or will serve out his term as Gov and then challenge Sen. Melendez next time he's up in 2018.

Stewart brought up a point on his show about Christie making an executive order to have the governor (himself) be able to receive payments from foreign governments. I think that's going to be the biggest thing in the news if he does run. He isn't going to come off the right way when he says he tells it like it is and he's a reformer when he seems very corrupt and secretive.

This was a good article in Christie's cons
Chris Christie Shows Fondness for Luxury Benefits When Others Pay the Bill

 

[Lead]

I think Christie could be getting a taste of Primary Politics and wouldn't be surprised if there is Bushie loyalists pulling some strings behind Christie's no-good-very-bad week+ as he seems to be testing the waters for a 2016 run. Christie afterall would be Bush's main competition for moderate GOP primary votes and if Christie can be convinced not to run than all the better for Bush.

I think Christie missed his chance - the GOP party was desperate for him to run in 2012 and he was scared of running against a sitting President, thinking the party would still be clamoring for him in 2016 and he'd have a cakewalk or something. Now he has to worry about the GOP Primary battles, where there wouldn't be circling of the wagons to give him cover on every thing he says or does but criticism from other Republicans - which will make any attacks stick because they can't be easily written off as "partisan witch hunts". If a Republican attacks him on his corruption/bridgegate, on the crap NJ economy, on his bullying/demeanor, on his luxury spending/helicopter to son's baseball game etc there will be no party wide defence running to the airwaves.

Another issue is that he needs to resign as Gov in order to get banker/Wall Street monies, and until he does that he's going to be at a great fundraising disadvantage - especially considering that WallSt/Banksters would be his primary base of support, especially in the primary.

For all of this, I don't think he ends up running. He missed his chance. I think he will endorse Bush early in hopes of winning favor to get a cabinet gig - or will serve out his term as Gov and then challenge Sen. Melendez next time he's up in 2018.

You think he'd like to be a senator? That would be very interesting to see him in Congress but I just don't picture that. I think he'll stay in NJ as long as he knows he can be reelected.

 

[ShoelessRye]

^He's term limited out after two terms - he'd have to take one election off before then running again as there is no limited to total number of terms served, only can serve two consecutively.

 

[Octavian]

Another New Hampshire Poll
(2/9/15)


New Hampshire President
Bush 16 Paul 13 Walker 12 Christie 10 Carson 6 Huckabee 6 Rubio 5 Cruz 3 Santorum 2 Perry 1 Jindal 3

Hilarious they're rating Santorum at this point... the religious yahoos are probably praying to their god that he runs.

The problem the GOP has is as follows:

-Jeb has a "Bush" problem... and he also has a Romney problem where his private equity background will be a real problem in a national election. It's really, really hard to see him winning a national election with his name and family lingering in the background.

-Christie - wholly unlikable for a large segment of the population resulting from his bombastic and often rude demeanor. That fires up a voter base but NEVER does well nationally. He's also full of hot air and religious right voters can't rally around him.

-Rubio and Cruz... there's just no way they stand up in the primaries

-Santorum... not a chance

-Rand - sounds good from afar but like a lunatic upon further inspection

-Walker - isn't he basically the same thing as Jeb? They will fight for money.

Walker's yet another pro-big business middle age white guy... the GOP needs something more than that. They have rallied their base as hard as possible in the past and it hasn't worked and will work less and less effectively now and in the future. They're desperate for a candidate that effectively takes the middle ground and gets people excited. There is nothing exciting at all about their candidates - they all strike me as more or less the same... secretly or outwardly super-pro-big business interests at all costs.. they pander to the super religious conservative base and they want "states' rights" to decide domestic policy as if we really need to go back to the 19th century.

The root of the problem is the vast difference in the GOP's voter base. Marrying the super religious right, super conservative south with midwest, west and east coast moderates is tough especially when you're serving the same message and meal you've been serving for 30 years. Reagan was a disaster no matter what the GOP spin is... his messaging is dead and antiquated. The sooner the GOP embraces that, the better off they'll be nationally. The only reason they're still politically relevant is a disgusting bastardization of the democratic process with gerrymandered house voting districts - a sad and incredibly hurtful fortress that will unfortunately last for a long time. It doesn't truly represent the country in the way the House was designed to do as a check and balance.

 

[ShoelessRye]

^I think the plan from the GOP Decision Makers is to have Bush get the nomination and then use the idea that it would be the first Latino-American first family in hopes of flipping the Latino vote. Jeb Bush is also pro-DREAMer citizenship, and on the whole sounds pretty much like Pres Obama does on immigration, and George W. Bush was even pretty reasonable on immigration reform before he was sabotaged by his own party in his attempt.

Also I never count out Condi Rice as a potential game changer running mate.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

Hilarious they're rating Santorum at this point... the religious yahoos are probably praying to their god that he runs.

The problem the GOP has is as follows:

-Jeb has a "Bush" problem... and he also has a Romney problem where his private equity background will be a real problem in a national election. It's really, really hard to see him winning a national election with his name and family lingering in the background.

-Christie - wholly unlikable for a large segment of the population resulting from his bombastic and often rude demeanor. That fires up a voter base but NEVER does well nationally. He's also full of hot air and religious right voters can't rally around him.

-Rubio and Cruz... there's just no way they stand up in the primaries

-Santorum... not a chance

-Rand - sounds good from afar but like a lunatic upon further inspection

-Walker - isn't he basically the same thing as Jeb? They will fight for money.

Walker's yet another pro-big business middle age white guy... the GOP needs something more than that. They have rallied their base as hard as possible in the past and it hasn't worked and will work less and less effectively now and in the future. They're desperate for a candidate that effectively takes the middle ground and gets people excited. There is nothing exciting at all about their candidates - they all strike me as more or less the same... secretly or outwardly super-pro-big business interests at all costs.. they pander to the super religious conservative base and they want "states' rights" to decide domestic policy as if we really need to go back to the 19th century.

The root of the problem is the vast difference in the GOP's voter base. Marrying the super religious right, super conservative south with midwest, west and east coast moderates is tough especially when you're serving the same message and meal you've been serving for 30 years. Reagan was a disaster no matter what the GOP spin is... his messaging is dead and antiquated. The sooner the GOP embraces that, the better off they'll be nationally. The only reason they're still politically relevant is a disgusting bastardization of the democratic process with gerrymandered house voting districts - a sad and incredibly hurtful fortress that will unfortunately last for a long time. It doesn't truly represent the country in the way the House was designed to do as a check and balance.

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards a Jeb-Walker finale.

I thought Christie's big mouth was mostly an act and was waiting for him to settle down and act more like a statesman. But it seems like he really is a hothead that can't stand a little pressure or questioning. That certainly won't fly in the long run.

Jeb and Walker are cut from the same cloth as Romney. Safe picks that the GOP hopes will attract just enough of the anti-Hillary sentiment to make it in.

 

[GhostZ06]

Hilarious they're rating Santorum at this point... the religious yahoos are probably praying to their god that he runs.

The problem the GOP has is as follows:

-Jeb has a "Bush" problem... and he also has a Romney problem where his private equity background will be a real problem in a national election. It's really, really hard to see him winning a national election with his name and family lingering in the background.

-Christie - wholly unlikable for a large segment of the population resulting from his bombastic and often rude demeanor. That fires up a voter base but NEVER does well nationally. He's also full of hot air and religious right voters can't rally around him.

-Rubio and Cruz... there's just no way they stand up in the primaries

-Santorum... not a chance

-Rand - sounds good from afar but like a lunatic upon further inspection

-Walker - isn't he basically the same thing as Jeb? They will fight for money.

Walker's yet another pro-big business middle age white guy... the GOP needs something more than that. They have rallied their base as hard as possible in the past and it hasn't worked and will work less and less effectively now and in the future. They're desperate for a candidate that effectively takes the middle ground and gets people excited. There is nothing exciting at all about their candidates - they all strike me as more or less the same... secretly or outwardly super-pro-big business interests at all costs.. they pander to the super religious conservative base and they want "states' rights" to decide domestic policy as if we really need to go back to the 19th century.

The root of the problem is the vast difference in the GOP's voter base. Marrying the super religious right, super conservative south with midwest, west and east coast moderates is tough especially when you're serving the same message and meal you've been serving for 30 years. Reagan was a disaster no matter what the GOP spin is... his messaging is dead and antiquated. The sooner the GOP embraces that, the better off they'll be nationally. The only reason they're still politically relevant is a disgusting bastardization of the democratic process with gerrymandered house voting districts - a sad and incredibly hurtful fortress that will unfortunately last for a long time. It doesn't truly represent the country in the way the House was designed to do as a check and balance.

lol you know whats funny? no one even knew or gave a shit about jeb. And all of a sudden he's winning poles? Fuck off with that shit, we dont need another bush or a clinton. ill take paul

 

[RetiredWisFighter]

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards a Jeb-Walker finale.

I thought Christie's big mouth was mostly an act and was waiting for him to settle down and act more like a statesman. But it seems like he really is a hothead that can't stand a little pressure or questioning. That certainly won't fly in the long run.

Jeb and Walker are cut from the same cloth as Romney. Safe picks that the GOP hopes will attract just enough of the anti-Hillary sentiment to make it in.

Funny thing is I'd vote over most of the GOP rather than Hillary except Walker/Jeb

 

[Possum Jenkins]

Funny thing is I'd vote over most of the GOP rather than Hillary except Walker/Jeb

That IS funny. I think you're in the minority.

If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to vote GOP-only, I'd go with Jeb or Walker.