Economy GOP back to Inflation worries. "Hyperinflation" (Update: 2022 Inflation Highest in 40 Years)

[cottagecheesefan]

Lol. Like clockwork

I believe this is appropriate.

 

[Rob Battisti]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...orecasts-fuels-inflation-concern?srnd=premium


I was told inflation wasn’t real.

 

[TeTe]

Loving the debt fighters claiming they never stopped caring about spending...clearly bullshit because without fail these same Republicans elected candidates who they knew would balloon the debt.

Here's the reality. Democrats are for the most part fine with spending. Republicans don't really give a shit about spending (or anything else really) if it's their party doing it in pursuit of "the good old days"...

Psyched for infrastructure...get it President Joe!

Basically the idea of keeping a balanced budget went out the window with Carter, made a brief return with Clinton and now probably never to be seen again.

 

[TeTe]

Very unlikely that gas prices will hit $4/gallon by the end of the year, though.

lolwut

 

[Jack V Savage]

lolwut

Current average is $3.06. If you want to bet on a 31% increase over the next six months, I'm game.

 

[TeTe]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...orecasts-fuels-inflation-concern?srnd=premium


I was told inflation wasn’t real.

Let it be real bud, let it be real... then, you know what time it is.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Current average is $3.06. If you want to bet on a 31% increase over the next six months, I'm game.

I wouldn’t take that in 6 months but I’d take within 12 months.

 

[Jack V Savage]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...orecasts-fuels-inflation-concern?srnd=premium

I was told inflation wasn’t real.

You weren't told it's not real. Can you think of any reason YOY figures over the past couple of months might be high without being concerning for people who actually care about the economy (as opposed to just trying to score partisan points with intentionally bad analysis)? Here's a chart to help: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/. If you want to make a bet about what it'll be for the year and you're predicting a troubling number, let's hear it.

 

[TeTe]

Current average is $3.06. If you want to bet on a 31% increase over the next six months, I'm game.

Sure, average. Hardly solace in that average when gas is $4.22 on average here.

 

[DavidsGhost]

You weren't told it's not real. Can you think of any reason YOY figures over the past couple of months might be high without being concerning for people who actually care about the economy (as opposed to just trying to score partisan points with intentionally bad analysis)? Here's a chart to help: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/. If you want to make a bet about what it'll be for the year and you're predicting a troubling number, let's hear it.

Inflation is a real problem, though. It’s got economics scared that it could cause a recession. Who knows.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Sure, average. Hardly solace in that average when gas is $4.22 on average here.

I'm talking about the average, obviously.

I wouldn’t take that in 6 months but I’d take within 12 months.

At any moment in the next 12 months or what it'll be in 12 months? I'd bet against the latter for sure, maybe against the former (gotta do a little research first).

 

[Rob Battisti]

You weren't told it's not real. Can you think of any reason YOY figures over the past couple of months might be high without being concerning for people who actually care about the economy (as opposed to just trying to score partisan points with intentionally bad analysis)? Here's a chart to help: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/. If you want to make a bet about what it'll be for the year and you're predicting a troubling number, let's hear it.

I will bet we will be seeing double digit annual inflation.

I’ll AV bet sometime between now and 6/10/22 avg gas will be > $4

 

[Jack V Savage]

Inflation is a real problem, though. It’s got economics scared that it could cause a recession. Who knows.

It's really not, though. I'm not aware of any economists predicting that inflation will cause a recession. If you look at the numbers more carefully, what we're seeing is some supply bottlenecks as the economy comes back faster than expected in some areas, along with really weak YOY comparisons. Two-year core inflation is only 2.6%.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I will bet we will be seeing double digit annual inflation.

I’ll AV bet sometime between now and 6/10/22 avg gas will be > $4

Whoa on the first. You're talking about CPI? Let's say six month sig that we won't see double-digit annual inflation. As I said, I'll have to get back to you on whether I'd bet against gas touching $4/gallon at any point in the next year (I tend to have 80% probability of winning as the standard of what I'll bet on here).

 

[Topguntrophey]

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the shortage of shipping containers, lack of truckers and backups in west coast ports. But yes, blame Biden or Trump or whomever.

The problem is fixable if politics are put aside.

Yeah, right.

 

[TeTe]

I will bet we will be seeing double digit annual inflation.

I’ll AV bet sometime between now and 6/10/22 avg gas will be > $4

Honestly I think when production catches up post-covid, the price of goods will come down a bit.. maybe within the next six month. Cars, lumber, food, etc. The chip shortage is the real cunt in all of this.

The cost of money though, will start getting expensive within the next 12 months. Once inflation hits about 2 percent, that's when the fed will start escalating.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Honestly I think when production catches up post-covid, the price of goods will come down a bit.. maybe within the next six month. Cars, lumber, food, etc. The chip shortage is the real cunt in all of this.

The cost of money though, will start getting expensive within the next 12 months. Once inflation hits about 2 percent, that's when the fed will start escalating.

We're seeing individual prices rise for reasons that are unconnected with inflation (supply-chain issues + weak annual comps), properly understood, related to the strong recovery. I don't think there will be deflation. And the Fed has indicated that they plan to start treating the target as a target rather than as a ceiling, meaning that they can allow a little above-target inflation to counteract periods of below-target inflation. I'd bet that we'll see 2%-plus for a bit, but over 3% for any sustained period is pretty unlikely, and people predicting double digits or whatever are completely nuts.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Honestly I think when production catches up post-covid, the price of goods will come down a bit.. maybe within the next six month. Cars, lumber, food, etc. The chip shortage is the real cunt in all of this.

The cost of money though, will start getting expensive within the next 12 months. Once inflation hits about 2 percent, that's when the fed will start escalating.

Much of it currently is a mix of supplychain and money printing. But the money printing issue will still remain after the supply chain stuff clears up.

 

[Rob Battisti]

We're seeing individual prices rise for reasons that are unconnected with inflation (supply-chain issues + weak annual comps), properly understood, related to the strong recovery. I don't think there will be deflation. And the Fed has indicated that they plan to start treating the target as a target rather than as a ceiling, meaning that they can allow a little above-target inflation to counteract periods of below-target inflation. I'd bet that we'll see 2%-plus for a bit, but over 3% for any sustained period is pretty unlikely, and people predicting double digits or whatever are completely nuts.

what’s your thoughts on this piece from Yellen?

https://apple.news/ARV9Ctn17T_aGU_Hg8a3XMw

 

[TeTe]

We're seeing individual prices rise for reasons that are unconnected with inflation (supply-chain issues + weak annual comps), properly understood, related to the strong recovery. I don't think there will be deflation. And the Fed has indicated that they plan to start treating the target as a target rather than as a ceiling, meaning that they can allow a little above-target inflation to counteract periods of below-target inflation. I'd bet that we'll see 2%-plus for a bit, but over 3% for any sustained period is pretty unlikely, and people predicting double digits or whatever are completely nuts.

Powell did say, it would take 2 percent plus inflation in order for them to consider raising interest rates. I agree with you though, double digits is out of the question.