Elections GOP 2016 Primary Thread V4: Can Trump be Trumped Edition

He's said many times that he respects a couple of of his opponents and thinks they're capable.,.obviously thats cruz and Carson.
 
Two more polls out since the debate

Bloomberg
Trump 21
Carson 16
Bush 13
Fiorina 11
Rubio 8
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Kasich 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Walker 1
Santorum 1
Jindal 1
Graham 0
Pataki 0

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-09-23/150924_thursday_8698175.pdf


Quinnipiac
Trump 25
Carson 17
Fiorina 12
Bush 10
Rubio 9
Cruz 7
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 1
Pataki 1
Santorum 0
Jindal 0
Graham 0


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us09242015_ui47mfb.pdf

Field is narrowing and Trump/Carson are dropping and Fiorina/Bush/Rubio are rising. Cruz seems to be the only one not rising or falling.
 
There is no way Trump drops out even he doesn't get the nomination. He's in too deep. He'll go third party.
 
teflon don is absolutely killing it .. you can't say it's some fluke any longer .. the lead is growing and growing despite everything anyone thought would have derailed him by now .. it's obvious people are fed up and trump is that sign flashing in everyone's face ..

there's no indication at this point that he won't maintain this, barring some colossal fk up or some crazy revelation like he used to kill babies for fun or something .. although they were showing his numbers against democrats and they were not good at all .. not sure how he could turn that around ?
 
Two more polls out since the debate

Bloomberg
Trump 21
Carson 16
Bush 13
Fiorina 11
Rubio 8
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Kasich 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Walker 1
Santorum 1
Jindal 1
Graham 0
Pataki 0

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-09-23/150924_thursday_8698175.pdf


Quinnipiac
Trump 25
Carson 17
Fiorina 12
Bush 10
Rubio 9
Cruz 7
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 1
Pataki 1
Santorum 0
Jindal 0
Graham 0


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us09242015_ui47mfb.pdf

Field is narrowing and Trump/Carson are dropping and Fiorina/Bush/Rubio are rising. Cruz seems to be the only one not rising or falling.

The GOP really has an embarrassing field of candidates.
 
There is no way Trump drops out even he doesn't get the nomination. He's in too deep. He'll go third party.

But didn't he agree to the deal not too go third party?
 
teflon don is absolutely killing it .. you can't say it's some fluke any longer .. the lead is growing and growing despite everything anyone thought would have derailed him by now .. it's obvious people are fed up and trump is that sign flashing in everyone's face ..

there's no indication at this point that he won't maintain this, barring some colossal fk up or some crazy revelation like he used to kill babies for fun or something .. although they were showing his numbers against democrats and they were not good at all .. not sure how he could turn that around ?

Could've said it with Guiliani or Perry or Cain, etc. Pretty laughable to see how shortsighted people get with these things. "It's summer of 2015, nothing could change at this point!" Uhh, yea. Voters usually sober up by the fall/winter.
 
I haven't been following along lately very well, so I apologize if this has been discussed, but I've heard this tossed around a bit here (in Canada) and was wondering if this is a real thing being discussed:

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/09/24/41-per-cent-of-americans-support-building-a-wall-on-canadian-border/

The idea that any in the US support this is just boggling to me. The cost alone... and just...considering nothing other than the massive disruption to animal migration and hunting areas (probably the least often discussed issue with proposed projects like this), I just can't imagine what the propsed benefit would be.

My understanding is that was a ridiculous reaction to the already ridiculous notion that building a wall along the southern border is a good idea.

But this is what the right has brought to the table in 2015. A wall along both the southern and northern border of the U.S. I fully expect a candidate to propose a dome over the country at some point in the next year.
 
Trump would have ZERO support in a 3rd party. His support now work out to maybe 10% of the general election electorate. He'd probably lose at least half, if not more, who would leave him to support the Republican in the race. So he'd get MAYBE 3-4% come the GE, in otherwords utterly embarrassed. What he would do is ensure Dems win the WH and the percentage he'd take in Va, OH and Fla would be enough to potentially flip those States to the Dems and ensure a President Hillary.

So he'd become a national pariah - Conservatives would loath him for his third party stunt, and Liberals would still loath him because of his horrid politics and remarks.
 
Could've said it with Guiliani or Perry or Cain, etc. Pretty laughable to see how shortsighted people get with these things. "It's summer of 2015, nothing could change at this point!" Uhh, yea. Voters usually sober up by the fall/winter.

You're probably right but I saw a piece the other day suggesting the difference with Trump could be his ability to turn out voters who don't usually vote. The Arnold & Jesse "The Body" scenario where average, non-political adult stumbles into a voting booth because it's cool and fun to vote for the apprentice guy.
 
I haven't been following along lately very well, so I apologize if this has been discussed, but I've heard this tossed around a bit here (in Canada) and was wondering if this is a real thing being discussed:

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/09/24/41-per-cent-of-americans-support-building-a-wall-on-canadian-border/

The idea that any in the US support this is just boggling to me. The cost alone... and just...considering nothing other than the massive disruption to animal migration and hunting areas (probably the least often discussed issue with proposed projects like this), I just can't imagine what the propsed benefit would be.

Canadians aren't a problem.
 
But didn't he agree to the deal not too go third party?

You act like that matters. He's saying this week that the RNC when against their deal with him so that will be his BS excuse if he doesn't honor it.
 
You're probably right but I saw a piece the other day suggesting the difference with Trump could be his ability to turn out voters who don't usually vote. The Arnold & Jesse "The Body" scenario where average, non-political adult stumbles into a voting booth because it's cool and fun to vote for the apprentice guy.

It's the same problem with Bernie. His biggest base is young white college liberals who get all excited and then don't vote. Trump leads highest with non-degree voters. This is all an emotional reaction. These people want to pretend they agree with his policies but if so, it means they either don't know what their talking about or they lean completely left on ideology or they don't care about policy and think "talking tough" makes you conservative. Either way, this will die and I'll be embarrassed for those who hopped on while it lasted.
 
Two recent polls show Cruz passing Carson in Iowa

Quinnipiac
Trump 25
Cruz 23
Carson 18
Rubio 13
Paul 5
Bush 4
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Santorum 2
Kasich 1

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-retakes-lead-cruz-surges-in-ia-rubio-second-in-nh/

CBS/YouGov
Trump 30
Cruz 21
Carson 18
Rubio 11
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Paul 2
Jindal 2
Christie 2
Santorum 2
Huckabee 1
Kasich 1
Graham 0
Pataki 0

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia11242015_Ic344mgh.pdf

RCP Iowa Polls

Cruz climbing on up. :cool:
 
Ted Cruz is Stalking Donald Trump
Four days after Donald Trump drew tens of thousands of supporters to a modest, multipurpose football arena in this state, Ted Cruz stood 200 miles away inside a glass-enclosed suite overlooking the north end zone inside legendary Denny-Bryant Stadium. Here, in the home of the Alabama Crimson Tide, Cruz offered blistering critiques identical to those delivered by Trump
 
But didn't he agree to the deal not too go third party?

If he doesn't get the nomination he may claim unfairness from the RNC or something and say that's the reason he's running third party. In essence giving himself a way out of that pledge.
 
I voted Trump. I would have preferred Paul but at this point there's no chance in hell he will be President.

And I would prefer Trump over 'same old shit' Hillary and Jeb. I don't trust Trump but I see him being the lesser of the evils with the front runners.
 
With South Carolina in play, Tim Scott handicaps the 2016 field
90

Sen. Tim Scott’s endorsement is suddenly a pretty hot commodity.
With the Republican presidential contest likely still up for grabs going into February’s South Carolina primary, the freshman senator is being courted by contenders as varied as Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina.
Story Continued Below
He’s holding town-hall events with any candidate who asks and is unafraid to criticize them publicly. He said he is looking for a unifying candidate who supports school choice and believes the United States must embrace its unique role in a volatile world.
Discussing the GOP field with POLITICO, Scott praised Trump for sparking public interest in politics, but would not go so far as to say that the controversial frontrunner meets his unifier criteria.
 
Cruz climbing on up. :cool:

I really think it's only him and Carson who can win Iowa now. Jindal was also in that group if he ever caught fire but he didn't. Carson is getting beat up over FP too so I think it's going to lean in Cruz's favor by the time we get to the caucus.
 

Good to see Rubio calling him out, Trump is incredibly insecure for a billionaire, it's so easy to get under his skin, it just hasn't paid dividends yet. Someone like Rubio who was a nobody a few years ago and has youthful charisma Trump had to pay for must really drive Trump crazy when he sees him creeping up the polls. This is still a Rubio-Bush race in my opinion.
 
I really think it's only him and Carson who can win Iowa now. Jindal was also in that group if he ever caught fire but he didn't. Carson is getting beat up over FP too so I think it's going to lean in Cruz's favor by the time we get to the caucus.

What about Rubio?
 
I voted Trump. I would have preferred Paul but at this point there's no chance in hell he will be President.

And I would prefer Trump over 'same old shit' Hillary and Jeb. I don't trust Trump but I see him being the lesser of the evils with the front runners.

You are the people who make absolutely no sense. Pro-Life Libertarian policies to Secular Populist/Protectionist. People don't even focus on issues anymore. It's just who they think looks cool I guess? I'm not sure how to explain something this silly.
 
Good to see Rubio calling him out, Trump is incredibly insecure for a billionaire, it's so easy to get under his skin, it just hasn't paid dividends yet. Someone like Rubio who was a nobody a few years ago and has youthful charisma Trump had to pay for must really drive Trump crazy when he sees him creeping up the polls. This is still a Rubio-Bush race in my opinion.

I'm surprised how long it's taken for that word to be thrown out there. Rubio is taking a big risk with this. He is surging and I guess he's kinda been forced to reply to some of the comments Trump has made. It's not even October and it seems like he's going to have to start playing as a main player on the debate stage soon. Their campaign has stated they wanted to remain steady and low key.So much for that.
 
I would love to see trump run 3rd party. The ultimate rustling of the GOP establishment when they realize they've lost another election. The shock on the Trump-eters faces when their savior doesn't even break double digits in the election. Of course there'll be another 4 years of "Obama is destroying America" to listen to.
 
Could've said it with Guiliani or Perry or Cain, etc. Pretty laughable to see how shortsighted people get with these things. "It's summer of 2015, nothing could change at this point!" Uhh, yea. Voters usually sober up by the fall/winter.

I'm not disagreeing, but it does beg the question 'What can cause a significant dip in Trump's numbers, and the rising of another's?'

Can't reveal he's flipflopped on several issues.
Can't hit him with targeted questions at a debate.
Can't give him negative press converage.
It doesn't matter if he does a huge gaff - like the McCain/POW slip a month ago.
Twisting his words to make it seem like he was accusing Megyn Kelly of being on her period?

All of those have resulted his approval numbers rising, and his negatives lowering.

So... let's speculate.

What about the accusations of sexual misconduct at the workplace? (Let's say the media pulls a Bill Cosby, with dozens of accusers.) That worked to get Herman Cain out of the race.
How about revelations of dirty business deals that were on the edge of the law, but legal, but unquestionably immoral?
What about using the word 'Motherfucker' at a CPAC speech? (There's video of that)
Getting X-rated with his tweets toward Megyn Kelly?

I honestly don't know if any of these would have an effect at this point If the media knows of BIG juicy stories, I'm betting they're withholding them in hopes Trump wins the nomination, so they can 'release the kracken.'
 
Another article on the "early" argument

Early-State Polls Aren't Predictive -- Yet
332158_5_.jpg

If you’ve been following the wonky world of political science and data journalism, you’ve probably heard someone say that you should ignore early polling – especially in a presidential primary. When data nerds deploy phrases like this, we aren’t advocating for wholesale avoidance of these surveys – the polls provide reams of useful and interesting data. Instead we’re pointing out that in chaotic primaries (such as this cycle’s Republican contest) polls done long before the actual voting typically don’t do a good job of predicting election results. One only needs to scroll through the Washington Post’s Past Frontrunners feed to find Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Howard Dean and other non-nominees topping the polls in the November before previous primary contests.

So good news. After Thursday, it begins...

200_s.gif
 
You are the people who make absolutely no sense. Pro-Life Libertarian policies to Secular Populist/Protectionist. People don't even focus on issues anymore. It's just who they think looks cool I guess? I'm not sure how to explain something this silly.

I have no confidence in Jeb or Hillary whatsoever. Maybe if there were more front runners but its looking like it will be Bush, Trump and Clinton. I'd be more willing to roll the dice and support Trump then see one of those 2 as President. I don't actually trust any of them, including Trump.
 
I wish the real polls reflected our Sherdog poll.

#Rand2016

Of course there'll be another 4 years of "Obama is destroying America" to listen to.

Ah, 4 more years...going the FDR route, is he?
 
I'm surprised how long it's taken for that word to be thrown out there. Rubio is taking a big risk with this. He is surging and I guess he's kinda been forced to reply to some of the comments Trump has made. It's not even October and it seems like he's going to have to start playing as a main player on the debate stage soon. Their campaign has stated they wanted to remain steady and low key.So much for that.

I think when he was riding high and hadn't hit the debate stage they couldn't count on people to see what is so obvious to most sensible voters. He gets in Twitter fights with nobodies and sues people if they question his wealth, he oozes insecurity, but before he had tough questions to answer it was hard to see behind the podium. Unless Rubio was just gunning for a VP spot, he was going to have to be a big boy sooner or later, might as well jump in now. Honestly, he has the tools to win, it's just a matter of picking battles and watching the tides.

Also, fuck Scott Walker. Just though I'd get that out there. Pasty gnome-faced 5 dollar haircut bought and paid for to the marrow criminally corrupt motherfucker.

Though he's right that the size of the field is preventing a proper Trump prevention initiative.
 
What about Rubio?

Nah, that state leans evangelical. Rubio is putting his bets on New Hampshire or South Carolina. NH I would say is very important to him though cause if it doesn't go to him, it's going to go to Bush, Christie or Kasich possibly and he can't afford to have that if he wants to present himself as the main guy for that lane of the race. Cruz is the farther right/evangelical lane this year. Think of it as 2012, Iowa- Santorum, New Hampshire- Romney.
 
I have no confidence in Jeb or Hillary whatsoever. Maybe if there were more front runners but its looking like it will be Bush, Trump and Clinton. I'd be more willing to roll the dice and support Trump then see one of those 2 as President. I don't actually trust any of them, including Trump.

This doesn't make sense. We have a field of 17 people and you're answer is "I don't like Jeb". I keep hearing this too. The majority of people who reply to my criticism of Trump go on about Jeb again and again as if the two matters are one in the same. Their not and other candidates have proven they can be competitive against Jeb. He's a weak establishment frontrunner
 
Third GOP debate sets off wave of anxiety
90

The uncertain terms of the next Republican debate are setting off a wave of anxiety among middle and bottom tier campaigns, with several lashing out at the Republican National Committee for failing to provide clarity on how many candidates will appear on stage..
The campaigns fear the entry criteria for the Oct. 28 debate is being designed to reduce the number of candidates on stage for the third primetime debate -- a life-or-death matter for White House hopefuls on the bubble.

Should the next debate be a lower number than 10/11 candidates? What you guys think?
 
I wish the real polls reflected our Sherdog poll.

#Rand2016

Ron Paul would've already destroyed the country by this point if Sherdog polls reflected the US.
 
I have no confidence in Jeb or Hillary whatsoever. Maybe if there were more front runners but its looking like it will be Bush, Trump and Clinton. I'd be more willing to roll the dice and support Trump then see one of those 2 as President. I don't actually trust any of them, including Trump.

....Jeb...AND Clinton?

Both getting nominations, and Trump running 3rd party?
 
I would love to see trump run 3rd party. The ultimate rustling of the GOP establishment when they realize they've lost another election. The shock on the Trump-eters faces when their savior doesn't even break double digits in the election. Of course there'll be another 4 years of "Obama is destroying America" to listen to.

The only time I would be okay with Trump third party is if Bush gets the nomination. A bullshit election like that (Clinton-Bush) easily deserves a third party to say fuck the establishment as whole. I wouldn't vote for him but I'd certainly be happier watching the chaos cause at that point I wouldn't care/
 
This doesn't make sense. We have a field of 17 people and you're answer is "I don't like Jeb". I keep hearing this too. The majority of people who reply to my criticism of Trump go on about Jeb again and again as if the two matters are one in the same. Their not and other candidates have proven they can be competitive against Jeb. He's a weak establishment frontrunner

I don't see the rest of field having much of a chance besides Jeb and Trump. Maybe I'm wrong. There's lots of time and I could always change my mind depending on what happens but Trump is my choice right now.
 
I would love to see trump run 3rd party. The ultimate rustling of the GOP establishment when they realize they've lost another election. The shock on the Trump-eters faces when their savior doesn't even break double digits in the election. Of course there'll be another 4 years of "Obama is destroying America" to listen to.

Yeah, no. I really don't look forwards to another 4 years of Rip complaining about how his children are about to be rounded up by BLM so that Obama's secret islamo-mexicans can use them to fuel transexual gungrabbing robots.
 
I'm not disagreeing, but it does beg the question 'What can cause a significant dip in Trump's numbers, and the rising of another's?'

Can't reveal he's flipflopped on several issues.
Can't hit him with targeted questions at a debate.
Can't give him negative press converage.
It doesn't matter if he does a huge gaff - like the McCain/POW slip a month ago.
Twisting his words to make it seem like he was accusing Megyn Kelly of being on her period?

All of those have resulted his approval numbers rising, and his negatives lowering.

So... let's speculate.

What about the accusations of sexual misconduct at the workplace? (Let's say the media pulls a Bill Cosby, with dozens of accusers.) That worked to get Herman Cain out of the race.
How about revelations of dirty business deals that were on the edge of the law, but legal, but unquestionably immoral?
What about using the word 'Motherfucker' at a CPAC speech? (There's video of that)
Getting X-rated with his tweets toward Megyn Kelly?

I honestly don't know if any of these would have an effect at this point If the media knows of BIG juicy stories, I'm betting they're withholding them in hopes Trump wins the nomination, so they can 'release the kracken.'

A few things
-I think most of his supports don't vote
-I think the ones who do vote just go with the momentum and Trump's isn't going to last four whole months. We have short attention span voters here and emotional ones at that
-I don't think it will be a specific moment that kills his chances. It will just be a subtle realization he isn't meant to be the GOP nominee. The only people propping this guy up are people who are angry. Those people eventually calm down when they hear ideas for prosperity rather than idiotic rhetoric Trump spews.
-The debates are going to kill this guy also. I am baffled people thought he did well for the first one. The longer they go, the more he will be asked about policies rather than his personal stuff and the more we are going to see inconsistencies and lack of ideas.
 
Carson staffer cuts off CNN interview
90

A staffer for Dr. Ben Carson cut off an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper as Tapper was pressing the GOP presidential candidate about his previous statements that a Muslim would need to reject the tenets of Islam in order to become president.
Tapper was in the middle of an extended back and forth with Carson over the subject, when Tapper said that as an African-American and a member of the Seventh Day Adventist Church, Carson knows "what it is like for people to make false assumptions about you. And you seem to be doing the same thing with Muslims."
"You're assuming that Muslim Americans put their religion ahead of the country," Tapper replied as Carson asked what false assumptions Tapper thought he was making.
 
Also, keep in mind that a portion of GOP primary voters are letting all these things slide. Boy, it would be embarrassing to see him get to the GE and realize the average Joe voter isn't going to let this guy be president.
 
Bobby Jindal Could Still Win Iowa
gettyimages-484894502.jpg

Mike Huckabee’s support in Iowa started to climb in late 2007. The Republican presidential candidate and former Arkansas governor was stuck in the single digits in the polls in the summer and early fall, but steadily gained momentum as the year came to a close and the 2008 Iowa caucuses approached.

During the 2012 primary season, Rick Santorum took even longer to find a foothold in the Hawkeye State. As late as November 2011, Santorum was in second-to-last place in Iowa with just a few percentage points of support.
 
Yeah, no. I really don't look forwards to another 4 years of Rip complaining about how his children are about to be rounded up by BLM so that Obama's secret islamo-mexicans can use them to fuel transexual gungrabbing robots.

I like rip and despise BLM but this made me lol.
 
....Jeb...AND Clinton?

Both getting nominations, and Trump running 3rd party?

No, I see those 3 being the front runners as it stands right now. I think for the Republicans it will be narrowed down to either Bush or Trump eventually. I would hope Trump doesn't run as a 3rd party.
 
Crunch time for candidates
90

Rand Paul has a place on the GOP debate stage -- for now.
But the debate rules announced Wednesday by CNBC could end up spelling disaster for the Kentucky senator and several other high-profile candidates -- including Gov. Chris Christie and former Gov. Mike Huckabee.
All three would qualify for the all-important primetime debate if it were held today, but just barely -- thanks to a rounding provision in the rules, Paul's current polling average would meet the 3 percent threshold set by the cable network. The other two are slightly above the 3 percent cut-off.

Looks like next debate is a bigger cut off. No specific number but a percentage floor that easily could get us below 10. If polls held the same from today, we would have the following ten candidates on stage:

1. Trump
2. Carson
3. Firoina
4. Rubio
5. Bush
6. Cruz
7. Kasich
8. Huckabee
9. Christie
10. Paul (by rounding provision)

CNBC will still have a Jr Debate two hours before the primetime one if they poll at 1% and I guess because of the rounding rule, that means as long as they don't poll 0 in all the polls
 
I wish the real polls reflected our Sherdog poll.

#Rand2016



Ah, 4 more years...going the FDR route, is he?

After the election, Obama enacts Jade Helm 2.0 and declares "Marshall" law. He remains in power fur 4 more years, then hands the presidency to the first woman in US history. Michelle Obama.
 
I don't see the rest of field having much of a chance besides Jeb and Trump. Maybe I'm wrong. There's lots of time and I could always change my mind depending on what happens but Trump is my choice right now.

What are you basing this on? Current polls? You realize it was a six way tie before Trump entered the race, right? And also, Jeb doesn't stand a chance in hell with Iowa.
 
I've kind of checked out until the next debate, but I thought this was beautiful, I've always loved the NFL Bad Lip Readings, and this one was excellent as always.

 
With Trump I really can see a ww3 starting. I never thought a ww3 would be possible in my life time. But with someone so reckless and arrogant being in charge of the biggest and most powerful army in the world. Its gonna get ugly. The man has zero chill. Until now I thought it was all an act. But I really dont think he is acting. this is who he is.....a full blown idiot
 
Cruz has been saying that line repeatedly for months before Trump entered the race.

The proximity isn't a factor.

The press is trying to goat Trump to attack someone other than Bush. Weak attempt.

His strategy definitely is to let Trump implode and get his support after. No doubt about it.
 
Third GOP debate sets off wave of anxiety


Should the next debate be a lower number than 10/11 candidates? What you guys think?

Honestly, although I feel everyone in the Top 10 or 11 has earned their spot on the stage, I think it's probably for the best the Main Debate is cut off at around the Top 6 or 7.

Stuff the earlier debate and let them go at it.


Then for following debates, adjust the ranks accordingly.
 
I would love to see trump run 3rd party. The ultimate rustling of the GOP establishment when they realize they've lost another election. The shock on the Trump-eters faces when their savior doesn't even break double digits in the election. Of course there'll be another 4 years of "Obama is destroying America" to listen to.

All of the recent news reports that he might be reconsidering running as a 3rd party candidate, are bullshit.

More media fabrication.

The original deal the Trump made with the RNC still stands, and they've been treating him fairly. The deal was never made under the stipulation that the other candidates had to treat him fairly, reguarding the Bush and Kasich Super-Pacs launching attack ads against him.

Even if they're effective, they might shed a few points off his numbers, which he can afford.

But what really is surprising to me, is what do Bush and Kasich have to gain from it? Ask Trump supporters their 2nd or 3rd choice, there'll be very few that would pick Bush or Kaisch.

Ironically, Bush and Kasich's C-Pac attack ads will only benefit Carson, Cruz, or Rubio, under the best case senario. Worst case, it's just more supposedly bad publicity to Trump that helps rise his numbers even higher.
 
Back
Top