Elections GOP 2016 Primary Thread V4: Can Trump be Trumped Edition

[GearSolidMetal]

This doesn't make sense. We have a field of 17 people and you're answer is "I don't like Jeb". I keep hearing this too. The majority of people who reply to my criticism of Trump go on about Jeb again and again as if the two matters are one in the same. Their not and other candidates have proven they can be competitive against Jeb. He's a weak establishment frontrunner

Agreed on all points.

If Trump's numbers go down, it's highly doubtful Jeb's numbers will rise.

When Trump's numbers began to rise over the last two months, it's been at the expense of Cruz, Rubio, and Paul. Bush's numbers were consistent, I recall. It was only after the debate that Jeb's numbers have dropped significantly for the supposed likely frontrunner. If he suffers another deduction in support after the CNN debate, his campaign will be on life support before anyone's spent a dime on TV ads.

Speaking of TV ads and spending money, it's extremely early but as we get into the months closer to the primaries we'll see the candidates deep pockets of their campaigns will factor into poll numbers of the first primary states.

I bet shit is really going to fly.

 

[Gervinho]

Trump
Carson
Fiorina
Rubio
Bush
Kasich
Cruz

Cut the rest

 

[ShoelessRye]

Trump hardly comes out of nowhere. There's really little about his ascent that is surprising at all if you've been paying attention to the direction of our politics in the last decade. I don't mean that I would have predicted he'd do this well. I didn't. What I mean is that the nature of his success, the effectiveness of his strategy and message, is entirely predictable. What Trump has done is taken the half-subterranean Republican script of the Obama years, turbocharge it and add a level of media savvy that Trump gained not only from The Apprentice but more from decades navigating and exploiting New York City's rich tabloid news culture. He's just taken the existing script, wrung out the wrinkles and internal contradictions and given it its full voice. There's very, very little that is new or unfamiliar in Trump's campaign beside taking the world of talk radio, conservative media and base Republican hijinx and pushing them to the center of the national political conversation. If you're surprised, it's because you haven't been paying attention.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/that-s-why-we-do-this

 

[Lead]

Agreed on all points.

If Trump's numbers go down, it's highly doubtful Jeb's numbers will rise.

When Trump's numbers began to rise over the last two months, it's been at the expense of Cruz, Rubio, and Paul. Bush's numbers were consistent, I recall. It was only after the debate that Jeb's numbers have dropped significantly for the supposed likely frontrunner. If he suffers another deduction in support after the CNN debate, his campaign will be on life support before anyone's spent a dime on TV ads.

Speaking of TV ads and spending money, it's extremely early but as we get into the months closer to the primaries we'll see the candidates deep pockets of their campaigns will factor into poll numbers of the first primary states.

I bet shit is really going to fly.

That's another reason I hate this whole thing. I've been watching this early on and we had a really evened out field before Trump came in. As soon as he did, you got all these idiots blasting people with "Well we are sick of Bush!". No duh assholes, I am too. That's why we have 15 other guys in the race and have four months to see which ones could compete. But instead we get Trump to come in, steal all the media time and any support for the other guys and I'm somehow the guy who is pro-Bush. It's a load of bullshit. These people are smart enough to realize this is entirely helping Jeb.

 

[Lead]

Newest Poll Shows Trumps continued declined since 2nd Debate

Carson 24
Trump 17
Rubio 11
Fiorina 9
Bush 8
Cruz 6
Kasich 4
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
Christie 2
Jindal 1
Santorum 0
Graham 0
Pataki 0

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/100215-773897-donald-trump-trails-ben-carson-in-ibd-tipp-poll.htm

Someone should let Trump know...

 

[Tigerknee]

Its funny watching the media put a hit on him everyday and he still can't be stopped. Fuck the liberal media

 

[GearSolidMetal]

No, I see those 3 being the front runners as it stands right now. I think for the Republicans it will be narrowed down to either Bush or Trump eventually. I would hope Trump doesn't run as a 3rd party.

Clinton's support is erroding faster now than it did in the '08 primary cycle. Her trustworthiness and leadership approval numbers in the national polls are less than 45%. She's being beat by Sanders in the polls by a significant margin in several early primary states. She's lose to a few Republican candidates according to many state polls.

And that's about a fifth of what I'd write to fully explain the reasons why she won't even come close to sniffing the nomination. And none of it takes into account a possible federal charges, which won't be filed, probably ever.

I'd bet my account that she ain't getting the nomination.

As for Jeb, oh please. Are you kidding? It takes more than a big campaign wallet to win a nomination.

 

[Lead]

Paul Campaign Insists It's Not Folding Tent

Rand Paul raised just $2.5 million for his presidential bid over the last three months—a sum that not only pales in comparison to the high double-digit hauls of his rivals, but amounts to roughly a third of what he brought in the previous quarter.

The Kentucky libertarian has slipped so far in the polls—the RCP average shows him at 2.3 percent—that he may not qualify for the prime-time debate stage later this month.

Paul has also recently been raising money for his U.S. Senate re-election, raising questions about his commitment to the presidential contest. Paul pushed the Kentucky GOP to host a caucus instead of a primary, which would allow him to run for both offices—and he footed the $250,000 bill.

 

[ShoelessRye]

30% in a Republican primary is about 10-12% support nation wide - IIRC that is where Teaparty support was at in the most recent polling. Any growth he gets above and beyond that will come from liberals voting in GOP primaries to try and get Trump the nominee.

 

[Lead]

I really think Citizens United has lowered the barrier of entry to the national election and actually given us more options. The move actually has helped fight against establishment candidates. Jeb may have a shitload of money but you can only do so much with it in the end. It's far more dangerous to him to see 15 other people show up with enough money to run against him.

 

[Lead]

Kasich was on With All Due Respect on Bloomberg and wouldn't even promise he would balance the budget in 8 years as president because we need to spend more on military and temporary spending. What the fuck is purpose of constantly running on how you balanced budgets if that isn't your implied intent as president? The only two players I was taking interest to were Rubio and Kasich and it's hard to at this point. I don't like Rubio's FP and now I have to deal with Kasich being full of shit. The entire field is dead to me right now. I said I won't vote if it's a Bush/Hillary race and I may expand that further at this point since I don't see a truly ideal candidate.

The GOP needs to change their tune on FP. You can't run on fiscally responsible domestic issues if you are also going to run on expansionary militant FP. They just don't coincide. The thing that pisses me off is over a year ago, we were seeing the shift away from this hawk/neo-con ideology until ISIS erupted. The result has shifted everyone right back to where they were. Why though? We now have Assad, ISIS, Iran all killing each other and the rest of the Middle East like Saudi Arabia and Jordan having to actually spend their money for involvement in securing the region. Why must we act so stupid in wanting to get involved in this mess? Also, what fucking side do we pick that truly would justify the amount of money and/or blood we would sacrifice. On top of that, what would supporting that side accomplish for our end goal?

The GOP can't stand to admit it but the Obama administration has managed to do the best moves with FP in recent memory. He's had to complete the rhetoric of American "toughness" and all that BS but in the end, he has avoided conflicts in that hell hole of a region.

 

[Rex Kwon Do]

With Trump I really can see a ww3 starting. I never thought a ww3 would be possible in my life time. But with someone so reckless and arrogant being in charge of the biggest and most powerful army in the world. Its gonna get ugly. The man has zero chill. Until now I thought it was all an act. But I really dont think he is acting. this is who he is.....a full blown idiot

Why? He's said he likes Putin and believes they'd get along great. Who is he gunna start WW3 with? Trump is one of the least hawkish Republicans in the election, which was clear to anyone watching the last debate. All politicians are egotistical and arrogant, that's nothing new.

 

[Lead]

Clinton's support is erroding faster now than it did in the '08 primary cycle. Her trustworthiness and leadership approval numbers in the national polls are less than 45%. She's being beat by Sanders in the polls by a significant margin in several early primary states. She's lose to a few Republican candidates according to many state polls.

And that's about a fifth of what I'd write to fully explain the reasons why she won't even come close to sniffing the nomination. And none of it takes into account a possible federal charges, which won't be filed, probably ever.

I'd bet my account that she ain't getting the nomination.

As for Jeb, oh please. Are you kidding? It takes more than a big campaign wallet to win a nomination.

Biden entering has to hurt her more than Sanders also. That race will be getting way more interesting.

 

[Adamant]

Newest Poll Shows Trumps continued declined since 2nd Debate

Carson 24
Trump 17
Rubio 11
Fiorina 9
Bush 8
Cruz 6
Kasich 4
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
Christie 2
Jindal 1
Santorum 0
Graham 0
Pataki 0

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/100215-773897-donald-trump-trails-ben-carson-in-ibd-tipp-poll.htm

Someone should let Trump know...

I don't mind Carson on top. I believe him to be a good man with a solid head on his shoulders.

Glad to see Rubio climbing. Now, just waiting on Cruz to break into the Top 5.

 

[Diamond Jim]

My prediction.

Cruz will win Iowa. The evangelical vote is already leaning in his direction. Ben Carson isn't going to last much longer. Everyone likes the new guy until you realize he has no clue what he's talking about.

In New Hampshire, it's still up in the air. I think it comes down to Rubio and don't laugh, Chris Christie. He's locking up a lot of nominations up there and spending a lot of time in the state.

Trump could also sweep both so what the hell do I know.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

That's another reason I hate this whole thing. I've been watching this early on and we had a really evened out field before Trump came in. As soon as he did, you got all these idiots blasting people with "Well we are sick of Bush!". No duh assholes, I am too. That's why we have 15 other guys in the race and have four months to see which ones could compete. But instead we get Trump to come in, steal all the media time and any support for the other guys and I'm somehow the guy who is pro-Bush. It's a load of bullshit. These people are smart enough to realize this is entirely helping Jeb.

To be clear, yes, you've never been pro-Bush. I agree.

In theory, yes, it was helping Jeb. Until Jeb had a bad debate performance and his numbers have fallen.

But the thing is, it wasn't anything he said that brought down his numbers... with the exception of he's in favor of a pathway to citizenship for illegals... he's just not very likeable. He doesn't have the charisma required now to win a nomination. Obama changed the game on that, and Trump's risen it even futher among Republicans.

And I'd say Trump has been kicking him while he's down, saying Jeb is low energy and putting people to sleep.

 

[Lead]

I don't mind Carson on top. I believe him to be a good man with a solid head on his shoulders.

Glad to see Rubio climbing. Now, just waiting on Cruz to break into the Top 5.

Cruz is the only guy staying stagnant really, which isn't a bad thing this early. Everyone below him is dropping fast and hard. Every above him has seen a surge.

 

[Lead]

The 2016 ballot wars begin

Voting doesn’t begin for another two months but some presidential candidates have already failed their first big ballot test – actually getting on the ballot in all 50 states.
The business of getting a candidate’s name on the ballot is a costly and complex endeavor, a major drain of money and manpower that threatens to weed out the most underfunded campaigns and strain the others in what remains a historically unwieldy Republican field. Some states require thousands of signatures to qualify; others charge tens of thousands of dollars.

 

[Lead]

To be clear, yes, you've never been pro-Bush. I agree.

In theory, yes, it was helping Jeb. Until Jeb had a bad debate performance and his numbers have fallen.

But the thing is, it wasn't anything he said that brought down his numbers... with the exception of he's in favor of a pathway to citizenship for illegals... he's just not very likeable. He doesn't have the charisma required now to win a nomination. Obama changed the game on that, and Trump's risen it even futher among Republicans.

And I'd say Trump has been kicking him while he's down, saying Jeb is low energy and putting people to sleep.

I think that was true moreso with Walker than Bush but still somewhat true with Bush. Walker bombed in Iowa since then and I think people were right he might be the next Pawlenti as he wasn't good on stage. Bush is losing to Kasich now in NH which has to be far more discouraging than Trumps high numbers at this point.

 

[Adamant]

Ted Cruz is my hero!


Ted Cruz Destroys Sierra Club President's Global Warming Claims in Senate Hearing
[YT]Sl9-tY1oZNw[/YT]

 

[Adamant]

The 2016 ballot wars begin

That doesn't seem fair. There should be something that guarantees that if you're in at least X-amount of televised debates, your name is automatically put on the ballot in all 50 states.

Who didn't get in on all 50 states?

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Biden entering has to hurt her more than Sanders also. That race will be getting way more interesting.

Hillary might have deep pockets in her campaign, but that'll be irrelevant with Biden and Sanders. It's going to be those two.

And whoever offers Warren the VP slot the soonest. Boom. There's the nomination. Bookmark this post. I'm calling it.

 

[Prefect]

Ted Cruz is my hero!


Ted Cruz Destroys Sierra Club President's Global Warming Claims in Senate Hearing
[YT]Sl9-tY1oZNw[/YT]

Destroy? How? He poked no holes in the Sierra clubs warning and only made himself look silly arguing that 97% is not a consensus. He isn't a scientist and somehow expects the Sierra summarize the thousands of studies on the topic. The guy wasn't going to let himself get pulled into a silly argument. Science has spoken on the issue. PoliticiAns don't have the right to question or dissect the scientific process. It is like the pope telling people evolution doesn't exist or the earth is he center of the universe. If Cruz is so smart he should write a paper that holds up to scientific scrutiny and changes the general consensus on global warming.

 

[Lead]

That doesn't seem fair. There should be something that guarantees that if you're in at least X-amount of televised debates, your name is automatically put on the ballot in all 50 states.

Who didn't get in on all 50 states?

At first thought, I think that but then I realize it's a good vetting system. For all of you who say Ben Carson is a good leader because he would be good at picking good advisers to delegate to, this would be the perfect example of him being able to prove that. He easily has enough money to organize and be able to make each states requirements.

If you just let them on because their popular, you are taking away another way we could vet the candidate. This election is more important than ever to have that in place since we have a non-politician group that claims they are good at management/leading. They can prove that off the bat by completing this task like the other candidates have to.

 

[thx113x]

Clinton's support is erroding faster now than it did in the '08 primary cycle. Her trustworthiness and leadership approval numbers in the national polls are less than 45%. She's being beat by Sanders in the polls by a significant margin in several early primary states. She's lose to a few Republican candidates according to many state polls.

And that's about a fifth of what I'd write to fully explain the reasons why she won't even come close to sniffing the nomination. And none of it takes into account a possible federal charges, which won't be filed, probably ever.

I'd bet my account that she ain't getting the nomination.

As for Jeb, oh please. Are you kidding? It takes more than a big campaign wallet to win a nomination.

Yes I am aware Clinton's support is falling. But the establishment and media seems to be pushing her and Bush pretty hard and I'm not feeling very optimistic. And if you are that confident Clinton and Bush won't get the nomination then I'm very happy to hear it. Ideally Trump, Bush and Clinton would all drop out of the race. If Clinton and Bush were not factors there's no way I would support Trump.

 

[Supereem]

Destroy? How? He poked no holes in the Sierra clubs warning and only made himself look silly arguing that 97% is not a consensus. He isn't a scientist and somehow expects the Sierra summarize the thousands of studies on the topic. The guy wasn't going to let himself get pulled into a silly argument. Science has spoken on the issue. PoliticiAns don't have the right to question or dissect the scientific process. It is like the pope telling people evolution doesn't exist or the earth is he center of the universe. If Cruz is so smart he should write a paper that holds up to scientific scrutiny and changes the general consensus on global warming.

He asked the president of the Sierra club to explain to him the 'evidence'. He introduced the satellite evidence and asked the president to explain it. The only thing the president could do is refer to that statistic.

The president looked flustered and would not answer questions. If that was a cross examination in court Cruz would go home that night a very happy man.

I don't really have a dog in the global warming debate. I think greenhouse gasses should be cut regardless of their environmental damage (considering they are not sustainable). I believe these cuts should occur slowly when a suitable replacement is developed (there is noway we can replace oil and coal with our technology today).

But the president of the Sierra club did no favours to climate change advocates with that performance. Perhaps he isn't a scientist and is not knowledgeable on the matter, and in that case he shouldn't even be presenting an opinion.

 

[Lead]

Insiders: Trump’s grip on Iowa is tenuous

After months of waiting for Donald Trump’s decline, Republican insiders now concede the poll leader could take two of the first four early voting states, though they caution his hold on Iowa is weak.
That’s according to the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly poll of the top strategists, operatives and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
For this Thanksgiving holiday week, POLITICO analyzed seven months-worth of responses to our weekly benchmark question: Who would win your state if the voting were today? The result offers a snapshot of the current state of primary play — with Trump, Cruz, and Rubio grappling for wins in the early states — and chronicles Republicans’ slow acceptance of the real estate mogul as a contender with staying power.

Cruz campaign puts family out front

To one degree or another, every candidate running for president has enlisted their family in their effort. But none have gone so far as Ted Cruz, whose surging campaign has placed his wife Heidi and father Rafael at the tip of the spear, leading fundraising and organizing efforts as if they were paid staffers.
Neither has a formal title, but as the Texas senator continues to roll out endorsements and assemble a growing network of supporters in the early states and across the South in anticipation of the March 1 primaries, the influence of his wife, on leave from her position as an executive at Goldman Sachs, and his father, a pastor who is a fixture on the evangelical speaking circuit, is becoming stamped across his campaign.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I think that was true moreso with Walker than Bush but still somewhat true with Bush. Walker bombed in Iowa since then and I think people were right he might be the next Pawlenti as he wasn't good on stage. Bush is losing to Kasich now in NH which has to be far more discouraging than Trumps high numbers at this point.

Kasich will be the Santorum of this race, if he makes it as far as NH. A small victory in a small state, then fall into irrelevancy.

 

[speakhandsforme]

Ted Cruz is my hero!


Ted Cruz Destroys Sierra Club President's Global Warming Claims in Senate Hearing
[YT]Sl9-tY1oZNw[/YT]

 

[Lead]

Ben Carson Seeks 13% of African-American Vote to Beat Hillary Clinton

Ben Carson's campaign doesn't think it can win over the majority of African-American voters, but it does think it can lure enough of them to beat Hillary Clinton.
Though President Barack Obama won 93 percent of the black vote in 2012, Carson is betting he can lead a significant portion of that demographic back to the party of Abraham Lincoln. In fact, his team has set ambitious target of winning 13 percent of the African-American vote in order to defeat the current Democratic front-runner in the general election.
“If we can capture that much of the African-American vote, it is mathematically impossible for her to win,” said Armstrong Williams, a longtime Carson adviser, referring to Clinton.

Karl Rove Opens His Rolodex for Ben Carson

Republican strategist Karl Rove helped set up a meeting between top fundraisers for Ben Carson and casino mogul Steve Wynn.
Rove confirmed to Bloomberg Politics that he acted as the go-between for the Carson camp and Wynn, a sometimes business competitor of Donald Trump, the rival Carson has been batting all fall for the Republican nomination.
"I introduced them but I don't know anything further about that," said Rove, who added that he did not attend the meeting.

 

[Lead]

Kasich will be the Santorum of this race, if he makes it as far as NH. A small victory in a small state, then fall into irrelevancy.

I dont think there really will be an equivalent to Santorum this race. Santurom was the last hope for an anti-establishment alternative to the establishment in Romney. Walker is the alternative establishment candidate. If he could be compared, it would be Huntsman.

Also, NH has more value than Iowa. Iowa has somewhat become a fringe early state and hasnt done well in picking the winner. I don't see Kasich winning it all either though.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

Mr. Sierra Club guy looked bad, but that doesn't mean that Cruz is right.

 

[Lead]

Marco Rubio Bets the Grand Old Party Is Ready for His Younger Face

There is nothing particularly flashy about the endorsements that have been rolling in for Senator Marco Rubio lately: a handful of Republican members of Congress, mostly junior and not terribly influential.

But upon closer inspection, there is something they share. Like Mr. Rubio, almost all are young. They include Mia Love of Utah, 39, a freshman representative and the only black Republican woman in Congress; Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington, who was first elected to the House five years ago when she was only 31; and Cory Gardner of Colorado, who at 41 is the second-youngest member of the Senate.

Marco Rubio is just the guy to win the youth vote. Or so the old folks think.

Marco Rubio — he of the unlined cheeks and recently paid-off student loans and strongly felt preference for Tupac over Biggie Smalls — might be just the thing to get young people to come out and vote Republican in 2016.

So say old people.

“I hope that the young people won’t keep being bumfuzzled by Democrats,” said Larry Trickle, a 77-year-old who came to see the senator speak at a Holiday Inn in Council Bluffs this week. “Here’s a guy that can speak their language, and maybe teach them a thing about work ethic.”

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I dont think there really will be an equivalent to Santorum this race. Santurom was the last hope for an anti-establishment alternative to the establishment in Romney. Walker is the alternative establishment candidate. If he could be compared, it would be Huntsman.

Also, NH has more value than Iowa. Iowa has somewhat become a fringe early state and hasnt done well in picking the winner. I don't see Kasich winning it all either though.

Huntsman.... aug.

What a *u**.

I hate to be reminded he ran for President.

It was him that did the opposition research on Herman Cain and found out about the bullshit sexual harrassment charges... which is fine, but did he openly accuse Cain? No. He leaked it to the press, what a coward.

There were whispers he was considering running for President again. He would be another version of Lindey Graham in the kiddie debates.

 

[Lead]

Ted Cruz sets sights on Rand Paul’s libertarian base

He’s sliding in the polls, struggling to raise money — and now the only base he has left is starting to wobble.
Rand Paul returned to what should have been home turf on Friday when he appeared at the Republican Liberty Caucus, a gathering of libertarian activists in New Hampshire. And while he was a crowd favorite, there is an intensifying buzz around rival Ted Cruz, even from ideological purists still pining for Rand’s dad, Ron.
Story Continued Below
“Cruz is stronger, he’d have more spunk as president,” said Shirlene Van Doorne, 64, of Nashua, after the Texas senator delivered a rousing speech Friday morning, packed with libertarian themes he doesn’t often discuss. “With [Paul’s] father, it’s a different story. When he ran last time, he was more like Cruz, very strong.”

Chris Christie returns from the dead

At long last, Chris Christie's campaign is showing a pulse.
There are signs of life in New Hampshire, where the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll puts him in the middle of the pack. In Iowa, where expectations were never high for the New Jersey governor, Christie recently announced endorsements from top members of Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad's political network. His favorability ratings are also on the rebound after a steady slide.
The current frontrunners don't exactly need to look over their shoulders, but for the first time in months the makings of Christie's path to contention are beginning to take shape.

Republicans fret about Paul's Senate seat

Rand Paul is under increasing pressure from Republicans here and in Washington to pull the plug on his stagnant presidential campaign and instead recommit his resources to keeping his Senate seat in GOP hands.
D.C. Republicans think Paul's poll numbers have flat-lined — and operatives worried about retaining control of the Senate are ready for him to start spending a lot more time in Kentucky and a lot less time in Iowa and New Hampshire.
"This presidential dream needs to come to an end," said a national Republican strategist, granted anonymity to discuss Paul's situation candidly. "Senate Republicans can’t afford to have a competitive race in Kentucky."

 

[kpt018]

How can anyone who isn't a racist support trump at this point?

 

[Tol]

I think that was true moreso with Walker than Bush but still somewhat true with Bush. Walker bombed in Iowa since then and I think people were right he might be the next Pawlenti as he wasn't good on stage. Bush is losing to Kasich now in NH which has to be far more discouraging than Trumps high numbers at this point.

Kasich will be the Santorum of this race, if he makes it as far as NH. A small victory in a small state, then fall into irrelevancy.

I don't think Kasich will fall into irrelevancy. He doesn't come from a ruling family, like Clinton or Bush. He was born in the US, unlike Cruz. He has a college degree, unlike Walker. He doesn't take extreme positions on social issues (gay marriage/abortion), unlike Rubio who was against exceptions for abortions. He has a proven record of governing where he turned Ohio around, unlike Trump who has no governing experience. He's shown he can work across the aisle and balance a budget. He might not be able to speak Spanish, but he's the type of candidate who can win over independents in the General. The real question is weather or not he can waylay the anger on the right and show that he can move forward with the things that they are passionate about.

 

[Lead]

Life in top tier tests Rubio

For months, Marco Rubio has run a low-key campaign, designed to keep a slow and steady pace. The past two weeks explain why.
RIding a post-debate high in the polls, the newly threatening Rubio suddenly became a 2016 pin cushion, pierced by friends (Jeb Bush), rivals (Donald Trump) and strangers (Harvard professor Lawrence Lessig) alike.
On Thursday evening, the ascendant Florida senator got whacked again as news of his surprisingly anemic quarterly fundraising went public -- he raised just $6 million between the end of June and the end of September, hardly the haul of a candidate with a bead on the GOP nomination. It was twice as much as struggling Sen. Rand Paul raised, but only half as much as another Senate rival, Ted Cruz. Rubio wasn't even in the same ballpark as first-time candidate Ben Carson, who announced $20 million in contributions.

 

[JDragon]

How can anyone who isn't a racist support trump at this point?

It's not racist, it's "non-PC".

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I don't think Kasich will fall into irrelevancy. He doesn't come from a ruling family, like Clinton or Bush. He was born in the US, unlike Cruz. He has a college degree, unlike Walker. He doesn't take extreme positions on social issues (gay marriage/abortion), unlike Rubio who was against exceptions for abortions. He has a proven record of governing where he turned Ohio around, unlike Trump who has no governing experience. He's shown he can work across the aisle and balance a budget. He might not be able to speak Spanish, but he's the type of candidate who can win over independents in the General. The real question is weather or not he can waylay the anger on the right and show that he can move forward with the things that they are passionate about.

His main obstancle is that he's a tool.

Good luck overcoming that.

He's a non-factor. Since Feorina got a big spike in support since the kiddie debate, he barely was on the main debate and lost a point in support, I doubt he makes the CNN debate, which only includes the Top 10 candidates, or so I last heard.

 

[Lead]

Sheldon Adelson warms to Marco Rubio

Sheldon Adelson, one of the Republican Party's most sought-after contributors, is leaning increasingly toward supporting Marco Rubio — and the Florida senator is racing to win the backing of other uncommitted megadonors who have the potential to direct tens of millions of dollars his way and alter the contours of the Republican primary fight.
Last week, during a campaign swing through Las Vegas, Rubio held a meeting in Adelson's offices at the Venetian Las Vegas, one of a number of five-star luxury casinos the billionaire mogul owns around the world. Adelson, seated at the head of his conference table, heaped praise on Rubio’s performance while he discussed the dynamics of the 2016 race. Those briefed on the meeting described it as short but said it had an air of importance, with the two joined by Rubio’s campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, and a pair of senior Adelson advisers, Rob Goldstein and Patrick Dumont.

This would be huge for Rubio who hasn't been able to secure a large donor to back his campaign like others. His 6 million haul last quarter definitely has made people question his legitimacy at securing the nomination.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

Why? He's said he likes Putin and believes they'd get along great. Who is he gunna start WW3 with? Trump is one of the least hawkish Republicans in the election, which was clear to anyone watching the last debate. All politicians are egotistical and arrogant, that's nothing new.

He lost his non-hawkish credentials when he gave a patented, classic, neocon answer to his solution to ISIS: I'd bomb the shit out of them!

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-bomb-isis-2015-11

Also, his obsession and contempt towards China is worrying. Yeah, he mentions mostly economic issues but everyone knows that economics and geopolitics are interconnected.

He's hyper-aggressive and violent (which is why conservatives love him) so an attack on foreign soil can't ever be out of the question.

 

[thx113x]

Edit: Disregard

 

[JosephDredd]

did Bush and CNN collude to embarass Trump after Bush planted a staffer at a Trump rally?

theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/10/13/busted-cnn-uses-jeb-bush-staffer-planted-in-audience-to-frame-donald-trump-narrativehit-job/

on phone, can't do fancy link

 

[Lead]

He lost his non-hawkish credentials when he gave a patented, classic, neocon answer to his solution to ISIS: I'd bomb the shit out of them!

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-bomb-isis-2015-11

Also, his obsession and contempt towards China is worrying. Yeah, he mentions mostly economic issues but everyone knows that economics and geopolitics are interconnected.

He's hyper-aggressive and violent (which is why conservatives love him) so an attack on foreign soil can't ever be out of the question.

He was always demonizing Iran/China in his earlier stuff. I think you're right about the bolded comment. Trade tarrifs are far more dangerous in our times than the BS hypothetical WWIII's we hear about. Everything is about economic performance and when you start changing the rules and fucking other economies over with insecure tactics like tariffs, everyone is going to lose.

 

[Lead]

His main obstancle is that he's a tool.

Good luck overcoming that.

He's a non-factor. Since Feorina got a big spike in support since the kiddie debate, he barely was on the main debate and lost a point in support, I doubt he makes the CNN debate, which only includes the Top 10 candidates, or so I last heard.

Paul, Huckabee and Christie all fell behind him in the RCP average. He's at #8 now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Also, CNN is getting a ton of shit for their criteria. They are using some polls from July to determine who gets in. Fiorina actually may get snubbed for this reason. Really dumb move on CNN's part. I don't know how they didn't think there would be a candidate that could surge from the Fox debate and they shouldn't make the criteria go against starting off lower.

 

[Lead]

GOP campaign call with debate host CNBC gets heated

What was supposed to be a routine conference call to discuss planning for the next GOP presidential debate turned heated on Wednesday morning, as several presidential campaigns turned against CNBC over the program’s format.
At issue: the network’s decision to prevent candidates from being able to give opening and closing statements during the Oct. 28 debate, to be held in Boulder, Colorado.
Prior to the nearly 90-minute call, the network distributed a memo to campaigns stating as fact that they had agreed to forgo such statements — a declaration that on the call met with objections from some campaigns, which said they had agreed to no such thing. The first to complain was Ed Brookover, a longtime Republican strategist who is currently working for Ben Carson. Brookover, according to two sources on the call, threatened to take his concerns public.
The sources also said that Chris LaCivita, a top strategist for the Rand Paul campaign, echoed the concerns that the campaigns had not agreed to any such statement, arguing that being able to give opening and closing remarks wouldn’t be too much to ask for during a two-hour debate.

 

[Lead]

The GOP’s identity-politics crisis: Holding race-card aces but loath to play them

Juan Rodriguez, a Colombian immigrant and Republican businessman in Des Moines, is on a mission to persuade his employees, nearly all Hispanic Democrats, to elect a president from what they think of as the party of white guys.

This year, with three minorities among the top four GOP contenders, Rodriguez thought he had a shot. “You are against abortion, yes? Against same-sex marriage, yes?” he tells them. “Then you are a Republican!”

 

[Tol]

He's a non-factor. Since Feorina got a big spike in support since the kiddie debate, he barely was on the main debate and lost a point in support, I doubt he makes the CNN debate, which only includes the Top 10 candidates, or so I last heard.

He was around 2.8 before the debates, and has gained since, now at 4.5. He's ahead of Huckabee, Paul and Christie in the RCP average, so I don't see him missing out on the Prime time CNN debate. His poll numbers will climb after the debate, especially if Jeb and Walker continue to sink.

 

[Juventud]

Fox News is going all out unashamedly establishment tonight.

Megyn Kelly will be hour long interviewing one of the Koch Brothers. I guess it's good he's finally coming out from behind the shadows.

 

[Lead]

Ted Cruz Tells Iowans Why They Should Pick Him Over Donald Trump

Ted Cruz moved to seize his Iowa moment on a cold Sunday evening at a gas station convenience store in a town of under 1,000 people.
The Depot Express in Van Horne was packed to capacity with nearly a hundred voters in the state that goes first in picking presidential nominees. Some in attendance drove great lengths to see the Texan. Standing by the cash register, the final question the firebrand Senator received was one he was well-prepared to answer: Why should Iowa Republicans pick him to carry their torch over Donald Trump, the billionaire juggernaut with whom he is now statistically tied in the Hawkeye State?
After dispensing with the niceties—"I like Donald Trump a lot"—Cruz made his point: He was Donald Trump before Donald Trump was cool.

Ted Cruz Attacks Marco Rubio on Privacy and Immigration

Senator Ted Cruz, responding to a critical ad from allies of Senator Marco Rubio of about his national security record, said on Saturday that his rival’s campaign was clearly “very, very dismayed” about the direction of the race and the fact that conservatives “are uniting around our campaign.”

Speaking to reporters before a meet-and-greet at a high school here, Mr. Cruz addressed a television ad, paid for by American Encore, a nonprofit group with ties to Mr. Rubio, that condemned his support for the USA Freedom Act, which limited the federal government’s bulk collection of phone metadata.

 

[Lead]

I don't think Kasich will fall into irrelevancy. He doesn't come from a ruling family, like Clinton or Bush. He was born in the US, unlike Cruz. He has a college degree, unlike Walker. He doesn't take extreme positions on social issues (gay marriage/abortion), unlike Rubio who was against exceptions for abortions. He has a proven record of governing where he turned Ohio around, unlike Trump who has no governing experience. He's shown he can work across the aisle and balance a budget. He might not be able to speak Spanish, but he's the type of candidate who can win over independents in the General. The real question is weather or not he can waylay the anger on the right and show that he can move forward with the things that they are passionate about.

I know the pros for Kasich. The problem is that many times what is a good thing for a candidate is a bad thing for a GOP primary candidate. I think Kasich is reasonable and honest. He isn't far right on certain issues and the GOP won't forgive him for it. They will bring up Medicare expansion and him saying the Bible wants us to help the poor until the hard right flips out on him. I guess that doesn't matter cause it isn't his base of support but he still needs some of it.

I think the problem with Kasich will be people will focus on the little bits they don't like over the majority of good they could like.

 

[Deleted member 457759]

What's so bad about Chris Christie? He sounds like the most straight shooter of them all, substantive, captivating.

Please don't tell me that a nation as fat as you guys are prejudice against him because he's fat....

 

[Lead]

N.H. Endorsements May Be Key for Christie

A fresh round of major endorsements could boost Chris Christie in New Hampshire at a pivotal point in the Republican presidential primary.

On Sunday, the conservative New Hampshire Union Leader awarded Christie its support, writing in an editorial that he “is the one candidate who has the range and type of experience the nation desperately needs.”

Christie has also nabbed the backing of Renee Plummer, an influential Granite State GOP activist, CBS News reported Saturday. "People feel that he's Reaganesque," Plummer told CBS. "That he's going to take care of us, protect us."

Christie's New Hampshire focus begins to pay dividends

The all-in-on-New Hampshire strategy might be finally paying off for Chris Christie.
The New Jersey governor, whose inability to gain traction in the presidential campaign has left him mired in single digits in national polls, is beginning to see a return on his considerable investment of time and energy in the first-primary-in-the-nation state.
For months, Christie has poured whatever resources he could muster into New Hampshire, visiting on an almost weekly basis. As of Monday, the governor had visited the state 49 times, hosted 36 official town halls and held more than 112 events there. He's also made a habit of repeatedly texting and calling potential supporters — and following up — in an attempt to win them over. Even supporters of rival candidates concede those dogged efforts have left a good impression.

 

[Lead]

Huntsman.... aug.

What a *u**.

I hate to be reminded he ran for President.

It was him that did the opposition research on Herman Cain and found out about the bullshit sexual harrassment charges... which is fine, but did he openly accuse Cain? No. He leaked it to the press, what a coward.

There were whispers he was considering running for President again. He would be another version of Lindey Graham in the kiddie debates.

Funny thing is he was the only guy to not surge at any point in the primary. Paul didn't really either but he at least polled around 10 compared to Huntsman's 2-3.

I don't see a reason why he would run again. He was smart to stay out. If he can't get traction in 2012, he won't get it in 2016. Kasich definitely fits his position though except he's has more success thus far than Huntsman ever did.

 

[JDragon]

What's so bad about Chris Christie? He sounds like the most straight shooter of them all, substantive, captivating.

Please don't tell me that a nation as fat as you guys are prejudice against him because he's fat....

Well Christie was done imo at this point:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Lee_lane_closure_scandal

 

[Lead]

Donald Trump Declares His Meeting With Black Pastors a Success

Following a Monday meeting with approximately 100 African American pastors and religious leaders, Donald Trump emerged into the lobby of his signature Fifth Avenue property and declared it a success.
“There was great love in the room,” said the billionaire, who was swarmed by reporters gathered at Trump Tower.

Ted Cruz Excoriates Marco Rubio on Foreign Policy and Links Him to Hillary Clinton

Ted Cruz on Monday offered his strongest denunciation so far of Marco Rubio's foreign policy views, assailing his Republican presidential rival as a proponent of "military adventurism" that he said has benefited Islamic militant groups. He even tied the Floridian to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
"Senator Rubio emphatically supported Hillary Clinton in toppling [Muammar] Qaddafi in Libya. I think that made no sense," Cruz told Bloomberg in a wide-ranging and exclusive interview during a campaign swing through Iowa. He argued that the 2011 bombings that toppled the Libyan leader didn't help the fight against terrorists. "Qaddafi was a bad man, he had a horrible human rights record. And yet ... he had become a significant ally in fighting radical Islamic terrorism."

 

[GearSolidMetal]

He was around 2.8 before the debates, and has gained since, now at 4.5. He's ahead of Huckabee, Paul and Christie in the RCP average, so I don't see him missing out on the Prime time CNN debate. His poll numbers will climb after the debate, especially if Jeb and Walker continue to sink.

Still irrelevant.

Of all the few candidates to capitalize on if/when Trump's numbers take a significant tumble, then those supporters sure as hell isn't going over to Kasich.

It's all well and good to discuss how far he's going to go, or if he's going to win NH, but let's be honest here. He's got zero chance of winning the nomination. None.

Edit - Just wanted to say that I'm not in the habit of writing off candidates unless I have a very strong feeling they're going to fail, or the poll numbers reflect an impossibility of success.

Everyone that was in the kiddie debate that wasn't named Fiorina? Zero chance.
Christie? Zero chance.
Jindal? Zero chance.

Paul? Very little chance. Not really sure what he can do to get his poll numbers higher, but I'm not willing to put him in the 'zero chance' category yet.
Fiorina? Very little chance. Unless she gets even more steam to get in the Top 3.
Huckabee? Very little chance. His biggest asset is his stance on the Fair Tax, which he needs to remind people what it is in detail, and point out he's the only one running on it.

Bush & Walker - both are in the same boat in terms of poll numbers. They were the #1&2, and now their campaigns are taking on water, and they need a damn good debate performance to get their numbers from sinking their campaigns.

Rubio & Cruz - Each are in the position to gain significant support if/when Trump's numbers take a significant dive. Only question is which one.

Trump - To which I have to ask again... what could take this campaigning juggernaut down?

 

[Deleted member 457759]

Well Christie was done imo at this point:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Lee_lane_closure_scandal

Looks like he was cleared of it and dismissed some of the staff...

 

[Lead]

Top Romney ally backs Rubio

The stampede of establishment support to Marco Rubio is getting louder.
Michigan businessman John Rakolta, who served as a national finance co-chairman on Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign, endorsed the Florida senator on Monday, the most recent example of establishment money gravitating toward Rubio.

As Cruz gains, GOP senators rally for Rubio

Ted Cruz has built his Senate career and presidential campaign on his willingness to stick it to the Republican establishment. And now that he’s gaining momentum in the primary, his many GOP nemeses in Congress are returning the favor by quietly coalescing behind Marco Rubio.
Senior Republican senators who’ve clashed with Cruz for years have had nothing but nice things to say about Rubio even as he’s dissed — and largely ditched — his day job in the Capitol. Just this month, Rubio has racked up endorsements from nine members of Congress, compared with two for early GOP front-runner Jeb Bush. More House endorsements for Rubio are set to roll out in December, according to campaign sources, and several GOP senators said privately they expect their colleagues to get behind Rubio once the GOP field thins.

You can follow the endorsement primary at 538. Bush is still leading with Rubio trailing by 11 in their point system. We should be seeing a lot more endorsements in the next week or so.

The Endorsement Primary


The Cruz-Rubio feud is really heating up. Can't wait for the next debate.