General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

[spargament]

My bookie doesn't have that but I'd def go unanimous decision or one of those -5.5 handicaps or w/e.

I actually think *swallows vomit* Colby may get a finish. The amount of unanswered pressure he'll put on Woodley could lead to a TKO or choke.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Not even speaking from a biased perspective, but TKZ is literally one of the worst match ups they could have gave Brian. If he was en route to getting put in a coma by Max’s boxing and TDD, TKZ is actually going to put Brian in a coma.

TKZ will probably be my largest wager ever, sprinkling some on ITD/KO as well. Hopefully we get similar lines when the fight was actually supposed to happen with TKZ -120 which would make TKO at least +150

 

[Eggoplata]

SUG 17

There is value on Fowler. The SUG rules certainly favor Fowler as he is the more explosive one. In SUG something fucky often happens, and IMO this one again goes into overtime and will come down to escape time. Fowler knows how to game the system and he showed this in the first SUG where he barely engaged and try to get it into overtime. This also takes Craig Jones' best advantage - leglocks out of game. Fowler is like a smaller Nicky Rodriguez in his explosive wrestling style to escape things. Playing Fowler for a U at +310.

Also played Amanda Loewen -200 as she is bigger and more of a grappler than Roberts.

 

[WhosTheBoss]

What’s your thoughts on Burns v Usman?

Costa + Burns + Francis Yields 10-1 on my money for a parlay.
Feel great about Francis, and decent on Costa

can burns get it done?

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Morales vs. Chikadze is some sharp matchmaking...

You already know the drill, Chikadze by split decision.

 

[svmr_db]

Anyone want to take a guess what the odds would be for Chimaev vs either Meerschaert or Maia?

 

[Broe.]

Anyone want to take a guess what the odds would be for Chimaev vs either Meerschaert or Maia?

1.25 vs meerschaert and then when he wins easily 1.42 vs Maia.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Think I’ve deadass found a max bet opportunity with bethe’s retirement fight. Idk why but I got a feeling UFC likes Bethe for giving us that hilarious ronda fight and wants to give her a nice hanging change up to retire on.

I barely know anything of Wu Yanan, but from wikicapping she got 30-27’d by Gina Mazany and lost to the useless mizuki inoue. Bethe is meme’d as a useless fighter but she dirty boxes and clinches decently for a WBW.

 

[StewDogg11]

Think I’ve deadass found a max bet opportunity with bethe’s retirement fight. Idk why but I got a feeling UFC likes Bethe for giving us that hilarious ronda fight and wants to give her a nice hanging change up to retire on.

I barely know anything of Wu Yanan, but from wikicapping she got 30-27’d by Gina Mazany and lost to the useless mizuki inoue. Bethe is meme’d as a useless fighter but she dirty boxes and clinches decently for a WBW.

Wait I thought the Bethe was released.

 

[careto]

Chimaev -500
GM3 +385
I think the props might be interesting. I see the fight going Over 1.5 at least

 

[theTKDguy]

What’s your thoughts on Burns v Usman?

Costa + Burns + Francis Yields 10-1 on my money for a parlay.
Feel great about Francis, and decent on Costa

can burns get it done?

I think burns has a better shot than costa. I'll play burns straight myself, not sure about the costa vs adesanya fight. Maybe livebet izzy after the first

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Chimaev -500
GM3 +385
I think the props might be interesting. I see the fight going Over 1.5 at least

Idk man, GM3 at this point can’t be trusted. Who tf gets knocked out like that by Ian heinisch??? As much as I don’t think Khamzat is IT like the public is trying to make him out to be, GM3 is one of the best experienced opponents they could give him. Weak takedown defense, just recently knocked out, fringe top 15 dude, and most importantly willing to take this fight for shits and giggles.

he will prolly steamroll GM3 and if you want to see him humbled wait until they make that Maia match up. GM3 fight, chimaevs stand up should be tested. I’ll probably look to take chimaev by decision for the value. ITD will probably be like near -200

 

[careto]

Idk man, GM3 at this point can’t be trusted. Who tf gets knocked out like that by Ian heinisch??? As much as I don’t think Khamzat is IT like the public is trying to make him out to be, GM3 is one of the best experienced opponents they could give him. Weak takedown defense, just recently knocked out, fringe top 15 dude, and most importantly willing to take this fight for shits and giggles.

he will prolly steamroll GM3 and if you want to see him humbled wait until they make that Maia match up. GM3 fight, chimaevs stand up should be tested. I’ll probably look to take chimaev by decision for the value. ITD will probably be like near -200

GM3 and Maia are hand chosen opponents for Chimaev. I feel that GM3 is a tough veteran who will possibly make it out of the first round but inevitably will be dominated and finished. But you are right, a bet on Chimaev ITD is a safer bet. As far as Maia, historically he struggles with wrestlers with a top heavy game (Covington, Woodley, Usman) and Chimaev brings much of the same kryptonite for Maia.

 

[careto]

Walker -135
Spann +105
Am I missing something? shouldnt Spann be the favorite here? Grappler with power and good submissions against a versatile striker with a suspect chin and a horrible ground game.

 

[burge13]

Walker -135
Spann +105
Am I missing something? shouldnt Spann be the favorite here? Grappler with power and good submissions against a versatile striker with a suspect chin and a horrible ground game.

Spann looked absolute garbage v Alvey other than a few flurries and Alvey is one of the easiest guys to gameplan for on the entire roster.

 

[BigSteve]

Walker -135
Spann +105
Am I missing something? shouldnt Spann be the favorite here? Grappler with power and good submissions against a versatile striker with a suspect chin and a horrible ground game.

Spann might actually be more chinny lol

 

[sonhow]

GM3 and Maia are hand chosen opponents for Chimaev. I feel that GM3 is a tough veteran who will possibly make it out of the first round but inevitably will be dominated and finished. But you are right, a bet on Chimaev ITD is a safer bet. As far as Maia, historically he struggles with wrestlers with a top heavy game (Covington, Woodley, Usman) and Chimaev brings much of the same kryptonite for Maia.

None of those guys did offensively wrestle him though. They were all takedown defense and box Maia up wins. Chimaev might be able to do the same. His stand up isn't that tested though.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

GM3 and Maia are hand chosen opponents for Chimaev. I feel that GM3 is a tough veteran who will possibly make it out of the first round but inevitably will be dominated and finished. But you are right, a bet on Chimaev ITD is a safer bet. As far as Maia, historically he struggles with wrestlers with a top heavy game (Covington, Woodley, Usman) and Chimaev brings much of the same kryptonite for Maia.

Maia struggles with wrestlers with good takedown defense... They wanted absolutely 0 part of Maia on the ground. Literally none of them engaged in the grappling and only did so if it was to close out a round or something. Maia could backpack chimaev, reverse him if he tries to take him down... I honestly think anyone without KO power is a winnable match up for old man Maia. What even is khamzats background? Wrestle, judo, sambo? Maia only gets outclassed by All American level wrestlers who happen to be amazing athletes as well. Maia should def be in the hall of fame

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Walker -135
Spann +105
Am I missing something? shouldnt Spann be the favorite here? Grappler with power and good submissions against a versatile striker with a suspect chin and a horrible ground game.

Walker only has 5 UFC fights but has fought three guys currently in the top 10. Spann hasn't fought a single ranked competitor and barely edged out Sam Alvey in a fight that some scored for Alvey.

I think Spann could definitely win, but this isn't a fight Walker should lose based on what we have previously seen from him. He also is going to be cornered by SBG Ireland crew, so theres reason to be optimistic about Walker returning to dominant form; though this is not a fight to put money on if you are looking a definitive edge.

 

[careto]

Spann looked absolute garbage v Alvey other than a few flurries and Alvey is one of the easiest guys to gameplan for on the entire roster.

Spann might actually be more chinny lol

Walker only has 5 UFC fights but has fought three guys currently in the top 10. Spann hasn't fought a single ranked competitor and barely edged out Sam Alvey in a fight that some scored for Alvey.

I think Spann could definitely win, but this isn't a fight Walker should lose based on what we have previously seen from him. He also is going to be cornered by SBG Ireland crew, so theres reason to be optimistic about Walker returning to dominant form; though this is not a fight to put money on if you are looking a definitive edge.

I have lost a lot of confidence on Walker, he looked hopeless in the ground and this isnt something you are going to get better at, particularly at SBG. But I think you are correct, the fight ia closer than I thought. I will definitely keep it out lf any parley.