General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2020

[TrueAscension]

Adesanya gonna clown Jones

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Adesanya gonna clown Jones

Very easy fight vs washed Jones. Prime Jones years ago during the days that pico's roamed freely in his body smokes Izzy but those days are gone.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Saddened to learn of the fighter releases of Nadia Kassem and Dequan Townsend. They were prime fade fodders to freely boost one's bankrolls.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Saddened to learn of the fighter releases of Nadia Kassem and Dequan Townsend. They were prime fade fodders to freely boost one's bankrolls.

Were they, though? The trouble with fighters as obviously shitty (Kassem) or limited (Townsend) as those two is that the market clues in very quickly.

(Warning: Lots of analysis ahead)

Kassem entered as a ridiculous -190 closing favorite against Chambers...and shockingly won when Chambers gassed out. I then made a nice amount of money betting MDLR against her at -240, which is ordinarily crazy juice for a very average female fighter, but I wouldn't call it a goldmine.

People here then made some nice money betting Kim, who closed at -180, against Kassem. Hindsight is 20/20, but there were some risks and sweats there, too. Kim is an absolutely dreadful fighter, and Kassem did look a LOT more muscular against Kim than she did 8 months earlier against MDLR...even "unnaturally" so.

For the first 1.5 rounds, the fight was very, very even, despite how awful Kassem is. It was actually reminding me a lot of Kim vs. Fabian, Fabian also being a terrible, terrible fighter that Kim was rather lucky to win a split against.

Then Kim caught her and Kassem went down and gave up, but again, not exactly a homerun unless you were lucky enough to catch Kim at near-evens.

Townsend is even more polarized. I actually bet Dalcha against Towsend at -400, and yeah, anyone who hit Dalcha at close to his -230 starter made out like a bandit, no arguments.

But I passed on Bevon Lewis and Devin Clark both being -400 to -500 against Townsend, as both had very weak chins, and Lewis was looking very shaky at times in winning. Dusko at -300 to -350 was good value against Townsend, sure, but again, hardly a crazy bonanza.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Reminder to self: bet on Hermanson to win via submission against Till. Till has a lot of fans, primarily a striker, he is a fan favorite. Hermannson is so crafty that if Woodley Darcie’s Till (albeit after breaking his will) that Hermanson will at least threaten Till with a hermansottine.

I suspect that the odds will be anywhere from +250-+400 when it opens. If it opens at +300ish yeah that’s a play for me no doubt. Submission defense and grappling in general seems to be a weakness of Till. Am I underestimating Till? A little bit, I think he suffers from the same disease as Kevin Lee where the hype is there but the skill isn’t. He obviously has skill and so does Kevin, but I feel like when these guys go against the “next level”, they don’t have it and the octagon is the ultimate proving ground.

Till acting like a self righteous high school wrestler who doesn’t really train harder then the guys who are better then him, saying that “oh I know I coulda done this and this and my skill set is so high.” Till says it in a convincing manner with that beautiful scouser accent to the hundreds of thousands while Jack is probably on some weird Swedish MMA podcast talking about how he should have gotten that crazy choke against BJJ god, Jacare Souza.

What’s tills PTV here? He’s not going to be offensive in the clinch because that’s exactly where Hermanson would want this fight against the guys whose been fighting Muay Thai for 10+ years. On the ground there is a clear clear favorite here, till has to pitch a perfect match defending takedowns, not getting clinched up at all, and of course out striking Hermanson or knocking him out. Hermansons lack of traditional wrestling skills may contribute to Till fighting his fight, but in a 15 minute fight it’s hard to imagine that Hermanson won’t impose his superior grappling skills somehow. The Kelvin fight was weird, I’m sure Kelvin backers were like “aww shit this Hermanson got taken to wrasslin school son” and capped him as a -500... then Kelvin learned that instead of smoking weed and trying to get the fastest hands in America, he shoulda been training more with edgy brah defending unorthodox submissions like that. This is day 1 beginner stuff where I come from (not really, but Kelvin ur supposed to be a world beater...)

tl;dr I see value in Hermanson via sub anywhere from +300. Just see value in Hermanson ML as well lol

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

He obviously has skill and so does Kevin, but I feel like when these guys go against the “next level”, they don’t have it and the octagon is the ultimate proving ground.

Till completely shut down and dominated Gastelum, and then beat Whittaker on my scorecard and that of almost half the people watching. The former champion called it the most technical fight of his career.

I dislike Till as a person too, but there is no doubting his talent level and skills at this point.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Till completely shut down and dominated Gastelum, and then beat Whittaker on my scorecard and that of almost half the people watching. The former champion called it the most technical fight of his career.

I dislike Till as a person too, but there is no doubting his talent level and skills at this point.

I beg to differ on the Whittaker fight. I thought Whittaker clearly won and once again till showed that he doesn’t have IT to beat a guy like Rob. Rob obviously wants to give credit to Till, and maybe it was the most technical fight of his career but... Romero is not really a methodical guy like Till. Romero is pretty much dancing to the vibe of the fight and he just explodes. After fighting Romero, getting absolutely wiped out by adesanya because rob is a purple belt striker and adesanya is a BLACK BELT, yeah of course he is going to say he felt COMPETITIVE against the methodical Till who requires you to think instead of reacting against a guy like Romero.

Till SHOULD have beat Rob if his skills were really all he hypes himself up to be. Also, don’t think till has the ability to catch Hermanson coming in looking to either take him down or latch on to him. Till is not that level of MMA fighter where he can do that like Cannonier. What cannonier did against Hermanson was HIGH level MMA, Till cannot replicate that and I’d be absolutely shocked if Till KO’d Hermanson.

Just my two cents on the fight, I think the 3 rounds obviously helps Tills chances to fight his fight. We all know Till doesn’t mind winning an absolutely boring fight. Oh and how could I forget, I also thing Hermanson will have more to prove considering that Till is such a big name. I have confidence that I will feel good spending money on Hermanson as he will come to FIGHT, not protect. Till has his reputation to protect, that’s his families money and his kids futures family money. I’m actually starting to sense that Till can’t really deal with the pressure of being a high level athlete/competitor. He looked nervous fighting Rob and was probably elated when he dropped Rob (this was a chinny Rob, cannonier would have eaten that version of Rob alive) in the 1st round. Till, also not a high level enough guy to finish rob off that. He just jumped into the guard of a superior grappler with his nonexistent top game and ground and pound. Once again, showing that he does not know his strengths and playing into his opponents strengths.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[TrueAscension]

Joker gonna fuck Till in the face

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Joker gonna fuck Till in the face

lovely dog odds on him waiting to see if it gets wider tho

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Woodley vs till at 185

woodley opens as +250

wyd?

 

[StewDogg11]

Bookies have finally stopped installing Gadelha as a massive favorite in every fight (besides the second Joanna fight). But the question is is now the time to play her as a dog?

 

[StewDogg11]

Woodley vs till at 185

woodley opens as +250

wyd?

Wait what? First I’ve heard of this.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Wait what? First I’ve heard of this.

This is completely theoretical

I’m asking y’all what you would do if you saw that line.

i would personally lay 5U on Woodley lol

 

[sonhow]

Any leans on tonights Bellator?

 

[Oblivian]

Any leans on tonights Bellator?

I favor Higo of Bandejas

 

[StewDogg11]

Please oh please give me dog odds on Jordan Wright against Buckley.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I favor Higo of Bandejas

Taped last night. What do you see in Higo?
When you're getting buzzed by Bunch multiple times by the right, all the while throwing single strikes, naked kicks, miles out TD attempts, and generally looking stiff....not the best look. Bandejas isn't anything special but he has weird power and will land on the hittable Higo. I see guard-pull sub or bust for Higo's side.

 

[Broe.]

Please oh please give me dog odds on Jordan Wright against Buckley.

For sure you will get it. But I don't see why Buckley couldnt beat him tbh.

 

[StewDogg11]

For sure you will get it. But I don't see why Buckley couldnt beat him tbh.

You don’t think Wright stands at least a decent chance of beating him? I know he’s viral now but it’s still the same guy who had a beat down laid on him by Kevin Holland a couple months ago.