Gaethje vs Fizev early predictions

[SpinningElbowEnjoyer]

Firstly, I feel like Justin should be shit on less for taking this fight and doing something Chandler and Poirier did not have the guts to do in taking a fight with a dangerous contender outside of the top 5.

On with the predictions, the more I think about this fight the more of a chance I am starting to give to Justin. Fizev is very dangerous and is very good at decimating the body but Gaethje is one of the hardest hitters at lw. I feel like if Rafael were to lose it would be by getting reckless in the pocket and getting dropped by an uppercut or some other wild strike Gaethje throws. What concerns me is how Justin's chin is doing these days. He got wobbled four seconds in against Charles; I don't know if Rafael has more power than Charles but he's a very hard hitter in his own regard considering how he heemed Rda. Justin also seems to have a lot of trouble with bodyshots because those knees Charles threw slowed down his momentum greatly. This was also apparent in the Eddie fight as well ( wish Tony did the same). I feel like the fact that this is three rounds swings more in the favor of Justin because he can swing wild and crazy and not worry about being gassed in the fourth and fith rounds when the occasion comes and it also gives less time for Rafael to analyze what Justin is doing and find a killshot. Ultimately, I see Rafael winning by decision by a 29-28 but a knockout from either guy could very well happen. What do you think?

 

[Travis Alexander]

Gaethje will win.

 

[jk7707]

This fight will determine whether Gaethje is still a contender or a gatekeeper. I slightly favor Fisev because he has some great counters and at this point in his career is going to be faster than Gaethje.

 

[Viva]

Fiziev will turn Gaethje into a wrestler.

If Gaethje stands he's gonna get blasted. Dude loves to eat punches.

 

[SpinningElbowEnjoyer]

Fiziev will turn Gaethje into a wrestler.

If Gaethje stands he's gonna get blasted. Dude loves to eat punches.

idk why but I feel like Gaethje will try to wrestle offensively a little bit, he's been posting a lot of wrestling videos on his instagram

 

[13Seconds]

I have a hard time seeing Gaethje winning this

 

[StonedLemur]

I have a hard time seeing Gaethje winning this

Why sir?
Justin has the power to change any fight and he has that dog in him.
Not an impossible outcome tbf.

 

[Crazy Librarian]

@Adamant__

 

[Kb7]

Fiziev by being a better technical striker, Gaethje is one of the sloppiest strikers currently in the UFC, I have never thought too highly of him in the first place. His wrestling is overrated and he has never shown it in any of his bouts, Olympic World NCAA Champion Dustin Poirier took him down without any resistance. Justin only has power and that is the only way I can see him winning this bout, other than that I think he gets picked apart and stopped.

 

[swimba]

 

[matrixremaster]

Love Justin but this is not going to end well for him.

Fiziev is too technical for him.

 

[Pain4Pain]

Gaethje's technique has improved a lot since losing to Poirier and Alvarez, but when he gets pressured his ego takes over and he starts winging punches. Fiziev wins this one via UD.

 

[The_Renaissance]

Fiziev will be too slick for him, but won't finish him.

 

[aogiri]

Fiziev will murder his body with that high guard Justin uses. Imo Justin needs to make this a dog fight and not be playing counter striker like he has been lately. He won't out technique Fiziev but he can win if its a brawl. Fiziev looked good in his last two but when it gets wild like when he fought Green he is hittable and slows down due to that fight being much higher pace than his last two

 

[haj02]

I think Justin's durability, good hands and leg kicks will be key in this fight. He's not an easy fight for a Thai style fighter.

 

[The Last King]

Fiz stops Gaethje violently with punches and kicks.

 

[Shay Brennan]

Fiziev will batter him.

 

[The Witcher]

I think fiziev is going to be gunshy due to risk and gaethje is going to walk him down. But fiziev will be too tough to be finished

 

[Banana Tree's Nemesis]

I think Justin's durability, good hands and leg kicks will be key in this fight. He's not an easy fight for a Thai style fighter.

Kinda true, but that's not exactly due to his 'style' but rather due to his countering ability/ fight IQ (I don't even know in what category that would fall tbh).
He's pretty good at punching when you're kicking and slipping and kicking when you're punching. He's also very good at punishing opponents who move out laterally, which is a tendency of Rafi for sure.

But Fiziev is more of a K-1 type fighter than a Thai fighter. He likes to chain long combos and he's not really balancing on his backfoot like the Thai's do. He doesn't really throw linear kicks either.
Justin doesn't have the greatest track record of dealing with multiple-strike-combinations. He has or at least had a tendency to roll and swing. And he likes to finish with a chopping leg kick, which is imo one of the biggest problem factors if he can't eliminate that from his game. It's much slower than a regular leg kick and it overrotates him quite a bit. Against a guy like Fiziev who always has his hands in place this might become an issue.

If I had to gameplan for either, I would try to implement calf kicks and cutting off sideways movement for Justin.
For Fiziev, I would probably try to counter with 2-3 strike combinations for the first couple rounds and then try to increase forward pressure later and chain the combos as long as possible. Maybe look for a thai clinch or just uppercuts when Justin shells up. Maybe try to find an inside sweeping low kick when Justin lunges forward. Of course he also always has that switch kick at hand.

Tough one to call. Slight edge to Fiziev, but Justin's hands are dangerous at all times man. Justin can eat a lot of damage, and if Fiziev gets a little to comfy landing on Justin, he might use up more energy than he should, and find himself gassed against a still functioning, adrenaline fueled, Justin Gaethje in round 3.

 

[C0NCH3TO]

Don’t count out the old dogs.