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Again, Darwinist's point doesn't exactly account for the fact that the National Front won 6% of the French EU Parliament vote in 2009, and then 25% of the vote in 2014 (which was the next EP election). Voter participation rates were the same in both those elections, yet votes for the National Front rose 400% over that five year period. You can easily see this on the Wiki page, and compare to the 2009 election:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)
What is true is that lower participation means that you are likely to see more extreme parties overall. Lower participation increases the *total* percentage of extreme votes, but it does not explain the *change* or delta between the elections. Total French voter participation was nearly identical in 2009 and 2014.
But then one has to further and ask the question, even in that context -- was voter participation in fact low due to this being an EU parliament election, as Darwinist suggests? 18 million French voters does not strike me as particularly low. How does that participation compare to the most recent French presidential elections?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2012
....18 million voters. Virtually identical voter participation. Darwinist's argument may have weight in some contexts, but the French NF's stunning win in the 2014 election can't exactly be wished away by citing low voter participation, because that's not really true and wouldn't explain the change in NF votes even if it was true.
I remain skeptical about extrapolating long-term trends from a short time period here (the NF was floundering in the mid 2000s), but I think it's unreasonable to portray this as somehow business as usual. It's actually a very stunning development in modern European politics. Whether it has legs, we will see.
I think it has legs because Europe, unlike America, is actually divided more along perceived ethnic identity. Furthermore, even though you have the EU, there has also been fracturing of nations in the past 20-30 years within Europe along ethnic lines and there is support for even more splintering.
Hell, the Scots perceive themselves as different than the English. To me, that form of identity politics has been tamped down post WWII but as WWII becomes a distant memory why wouldn't ancient notions of tribe reignite?