Everyone in the know is picking DC

Lol at everyone taking the term 'Vegas' this literally. It's shorthand. It's used constantly in that way on this forum, but when the money is against your fighter, everyone becomes a gambling expert. LMAO.

The gamblers are better at picking winners than sherdoggers or fighters. I'm not saying it's a lock or in any way overwhelming, but pretending 'everyone in the know' is picking DC is just inaccurate.
 
No Mas said:
Lols,

Although betting lines are the most accurate indicator of who will win, MMA is yet a very inefficient market, and the main steam will come in closer to fight time at higher limits. "Vegas" does not shape anything, its the offshore and it simply tries to balance its action.

Claiming being a 60% favorite is a huge deal in MMA, prob the easiest sport to mishandicap terribly, is laughable.
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How many fights in which the challenger beat an established champion did the betting lines reflect the eventual winner? People were giving Weidman a great chance, yet Silva was still a betting favorite.
 
iwhoopedbatman said:
Lol at everyone taking the term 'Vegas' this literally. It's shorthand. It's used constantly in that way on this forum, but when the money is against your fighter, everyone becomes a gambling expert. LMAO.

The gamblers are better at picking winners than sherdoggers or fighters. I'm not saying it's a lock or in any way overwhelming, but pretending 'everyone in the know' is picking DC is just inaccurate.
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You are talking about a very small subsection of gamblers that are able to win consistently. Those are guys who don't bet on every fight, and watch betting lines and employ statistics to put their money on a sporting event. I agree though, it isn't like their are a bunch of millionaire gamblers secretly sitting around with betting stubs that have Cormier over Jones written on them. I don't think either guy is a smart bet in this fight, unless one has inside information about an injury or something.
 
iwhoopedbatman said:
Who said it was a huge deal, although it's closer to 65%? The thread said 'everyone in the know'. The bookies all opened with Jones favored, and more money has been placed on him. You can be annoyed by this reality if you want, but 'everyone in the know' hasn't chosen DC.
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Take the vigfree and it's not closer to 65 as it stands but I don't want to split hairs. I don't care to educate some random poster on one of the least intelligent message boards on the internet, but there hasn't been more money placed n Jones, in fact it's been quite similar since the line is not too far off from the opener. My point is the most telling indicator will be the late steam, even then it's still a highly inefficient market. I'm not annoyed by anything, I'm hoping for the line to improve since I got 20% of my planned wager on Cormier at ranging from +155 to +160,and I hope I can manage to get the remainder at a better number.
 
good comparison. a harder one cuz Jones is so much better than Brock, though.
 
Cake4Breakfast said:
How many fights in which the challenger beat an established champion did the betting lines reflect the eventual winner? People were giving Weidman a great chance, yet Silva was still a betting favorite.
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Depends on what you go by, is a -110/+100 a telling indicator on who wins? And if not at what point does it become so? And in nearly all cases you have one event to go by, the other possibilities are not shown, hard to quantify it.

I have MMA somewhere in with european handball in terms of efficiency, which is to say not too efficient. I have some logs of which steam moves were correct or not though.
 
iwhoopedbatman said:
Jones remains the betting favorite. Vegas tends to be in the know.
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nothing to do with vegas. That just means most the casual fans are betting on the champ because they never heard of cormier
 
While I would like to hope you are right, I doubt he is going to win. He's another shorter, stubbier fighter that Jones is going to out-range.
 
7th said:
nothing to do with vegas. That just means most the casual fans are betting on the champ because they never heard of cormier
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The line fluctuates but it's originally set by the booking agencies. They aren't in the business of losing money.
 
Yolandabecool said:
Dominic Cruz is picking DC. When Jones wins my superior prediction ability will stand tall above that puny manlet.
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i think he didnt pick neither, wasnt it?

but if he picked dc, its over

and the new
 
Toco said:
i think he didnt pick neither, wasnt it?

but if he picked dc, its over

and the new
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He said Jones has many ways to win but DC only has one. He said DC's one advantage [Wrestling] will be enough to shut down all of Jones weapons. I take that as a DC prediction.

He also picked Gustaffson. I can't see Cormier winning though [Although the extra lessons from Seagal make me question my tip].
 
I think Cormier is getting overconfident and will lose the fight because of that.
I'm not a big fan Jones, but he's way more focused.
 
theheater said:
Sounds like you dont understand how things work
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I work for sporting bet fella. I know exactly how it works.

An educated guess sets the line. It's never going to be set at inflated odds i.e Bones 3.25 [Unless it's a new company looking to infiltrate the market, and even then it isn't extreme] - The betting agencies would stand to lose millions.
 
Last edited:
Who is everyone?

Im picking jones
 
iwhoopedbatman said:
Jones remains the betting favorite. Vegas tends to be in the know.
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7th said:
nothing to do with vegas. That just means most the casual fans are betting on the champ because they never heard of cormier
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Yolandabecool said:
The line fluctuates but it's originally set by the booking agencies. They aren't in the business of losing money.
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Yolandabecool said:
I work for sporting bet fella. I know exactly how it works.

An educated guess sets the line. It's never going to be set at inflated odds i.e Bones 3.25 [Unless it's a new company looking to infiltrate the market, and even then it isn't extreme] - The betting agencies would stand to lose millions.
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7th seems to understand while you do not. instead of pretending you know for sure just look it up bro
 
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