I would say Khabib has him.
Beats a real estate agent who shouldn't have ever been in a title fight and despite winning easily couldn't finish him, then fights Conor (and loses a round on the cards) who has been shown to pretty terrible at LW piling up the losses. That leaves Dustin and Justin who while both good wins, neither has shown themselves to be long term champ material. It hurts me to say that especially for Justin who is one of my fav fighters, but if it isn't a standup fight his screwed.
Where as Sterling beats Yan twice, who many thought was almost unbeatable, Dillashaw who is an all time great and Triple C who definitely champion material. The guy is a legend of the sport.
Yes you can put your * there if you want, but the fact is on paper Sterling has been given the hardest run possible with the UFC clearly not trying to give him anything easy. Suga is the first fight where Sterling will be a big fav (or maybe he won't, but I can't believe he won't be a strong fav).