Gary Machado honestl has been lucky so far in his UFC career, during a majority of his fights he’s been connected on cleanly, he’s been hurt and even dropped. His striking defense is average at 54%, but he’s stepping up in comp fighting Geoff Neal who throws hard and often, averaging 5+ connections per minute at a 50% clip. He definitely needs to play it safe and steady with Neal, especially since he probably won’t get any second chances if he makes a mistake. Neal hits like a truck, he owns KO’s over block heads like Perry and Luque, also handed Belal his last defeat. If I were Ian, I’d play the game within the game during fight week to level the field, switch up Neal’s beverage cup with one Ian had rubbed his HSV cold sores all over. If it goes as planned, Geoff will catch the herpes and it could effect his weight cut, giving Gerry a slight advantage.