Elections Clinton vs. Trump Polls thread, v2

[Irenaeus]

I mean the majority of the Brexit polls in the UK remaining in the EU, but they still won. I don't think Trump will win but that's something to take into consideration.

This is what I was going to bring up. Another parallel I see is if Trump actually wins, his supporters will have the same "oh shit, what now?" kind of reaction.

No, they weren't. The polls were quite undecided, and they produced a result completely within the margin of error. I'm going to quote myself and Lead Salad from less than thirty posts before this. The short version is that the polls before Brexit were pretty good, despite British political polling in general being worse than American.

I'm afraid you misremember. The individual polls were all over the place, and the aggregate numbers were close to dead even, well within the margin of error of the actual result.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...dom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016

It should also be noted that UK polling is significantly worse than US presidential polling, with both methodological problems, and a far worse track record. Add a unique vote such as the EU referendum, and it adds a lot of uncertainity that isn't there in more usual races. Even so, the final poll aggregate numbers were close as hell, and leave won by less than two percent.

TL;DR Even with low-quality polls describing a situation with little precedent, Brexit isn't an example of polls failing, but of them working rather well.

We could research this. Oh, you don't have time to look up and gather individual polls to find out what the average polling data was for Brexit? That's too taxing on your time? I agree. If only there were such a way to find all the polls gathered in one place and it taking possibly 1 or even 2 minutes to find out if you claims are right.

Well then, lets try google maybe? Worth a shot, right?
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=brexit+polls
Oh, look. Bloomberg has a Brexit poll tracker. Lets see were that was at right before Brexit
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/
WHAT! 46 remian/44 leave/9 undecided?! But those are really close results when you consider margin of error. Lets try another source.
Ah, the economist has one too. Surely it will show how the polls were vastly wrong and favoring the wrong result
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum
Mother fucker. 44/44 right before the vote with 9% undecided. It's almost like the polls actually reflected how close and uncertain this vote was going to be?

Nah, fuck polling. If I just change my memory of what they showed, they can be easily discredited.

EDIT- I was an ass in this post. I am attacking the point of polling not being useful rather than yourselves.

 

[Irenaeus]

We all know the war the majority of mainstream media has waged against Trump. He's been portrayed as the next Adolf Hitler, and they've done everything they can to shame his supporters - painting them as uneducated, racist, rednecks.

I have a feeling that there is a LARGE contingent of voters who will vote Trump when the time comes, but are afraid to admit it due to the stigma attached. Most people are non-confrontational and don't want to rock the boat, so maybe they tell their liberal friends, family and coworkers that they don't know who they're voting for. Maybe they even say they're going to vote for Hillary.

Is this possible? Or do you think this is wishful thinking on the part of a Hillary hater? I don't live in the States so I'm unaware of the political climate on the ground level there.

This suggestion has been around since he started campaigning. It's never turned out to be true. Even while he was winning the nomination, the "silent supporters" just never materialized.

Every time it comes up, I assume it's a planted story to offset potential loss of support by reassuring people that they are not alone in supporting him. If too many on the fence voters think they're alone in their Trump support, they might not come out to vote. This gives them something to believe in.

Panamaican is on the money here. The polls were accurate for Trump's result during the primaries, suggesting that his voters were no shyer than others. At least not to pollsters.

Here, have an article on the subject:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/

 

[GoldenAzazel]

No, they weren't. The polls were quite undecided, and they produced a result completely within the margin of error. I'm going to quote myself and Lead Salad from less than thirty posts before this. The short version is that the polls before Brexit were pretty good, despite British political polling in general being worse than American.

Thanks for the correction! I remember watching Sky News on the day of the referendum and the majority of polls that they shown had remain ahead with a significant amount of undecided voters. I'm probably just be remembering that.

 

[Irenaeus]

Thanks for the correction! I remember watching Sky News on the day of the referendum and the majority of polls that they shown had remain ahead with a significant amount of undecided voters. I'm probably just be remembering that.

No problem. It's easy to misremember, because although the polls were even, the pundits talking about them all were like "yeah, it's a dead even race, but they are probably going to play it safe and break towards remain". Our conclusion must then be to be more sceptical towards punditry which goes contrary to polling data.

 

[Ruprecht]

Yeah, bunch of people with bullshit social sciences degrees voting Hillary.

The psychologist that thinks gender is a choice is voting for Hillary, whodathought?

Let's remember, most people with college degrees have bullshit degrees. Most college educated people are not exactly the intellectual elite. Those of us with STEM backgrounds are a little more 50/50 because our education isn't full of propaganda.

Maybe I should have been clearer. If you follow the link you'll see it was .65% out of 1% from those who identified as Republicans and were voting in the Republican primaries. How many of those do you think were your stereotype of college liberals?
Likewise the fact that his strongest demographic is uneducated, poor, middle aged white men in areas noted for racial resentment (just east of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers), and across every demographic the strongest response noted was people feeling politically disenfranchised.
It's funny that so many of his supporters claim to like Trump because of his "straight talk" despite all of his documented lies, and yet refuse to recognise exactly what Trump's "straight talk" and populist appeal actually is.
An empty protest vote tinged with nationalism at best. A b-grade TV celebrity trolling for attention and dog-whistling to bigots through tabloid gutter-press.

 

[DannyNL]

Panamaican is on the money here. The polls were accurate for Trump's result during the primaries, suggesting that his voters were no shyer than others. At least not to pollsters.

Here, have an article on the subject:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/

Maybe so but what I do know is everyone has been wrong about Trump from the get-go.

All the so-called experts were telling us it was a joke and he'd drop out before the debates. Nope.

They told us he sunk his own ship with the many controversial remarks he made. Nope, he just rose in the polls.

They said he'd never be the nominee. Welp, here we are.

I remember talking to someone on another forum about his potential to be the Republican nominee, back when he was leading all of them in the polls. This person said "no, there's no way he's going to be the nominee, there are measures put in place to keep a guy like this from winning." When I argued that he was well ahead in the polls, this person said "no idiot, listen to me, I've spent my adult life working on political campaigns, I know this world like the back of my hand, he'll never be the nominee".

So I have a hard time trusting the media and the so called experts here, most of whom have a clear anti-Trump agenda.

Trump will win and the wall will now be 20 feet higher!

 

[Irenaeus]

I remember talking to someone on another forum about his potential to be the Republican nominee, back when he was leading all of them in the polls. This person said "no, there's no way he's going to be the nominee, there are measures put in place to keep a guy like this from winning." When I argued that he was well ahead in the polls, this person said "no idiot, listen to me, I've spent my adult life working on political campaigns, I know this world like the back of my hand, he'll never be the nominee".

Then why isn't your conclusion to trust the polls more, considering they were right, and the experts weren't?

They told us he sunk his own ship with the many controversial remarks he made. Nope, he just rose in the polls.

This is false, although a quite common misconseption. He never rose in the polls after his most controversial remarks, he just wasn't hurt like people expected, since his rock-solid base was big enough to be a plurality in the big field. The same is obviously not true in the general election, where this base is a far smaller portion of the total voters, and he simply has to get a lot of non-supporters to vote for him. We know this, because suddenly his controversial statements show up strongly in the polls.

 

[Blackened]

Maybe I should have been clearer. If you follow the link you'll see it was .65% out of 1% from those who identified as Republicans and were voting in the Republican primaries. How many of those do you think were your stereotype of college liberals?
Likewise the fact that his strongest demographic is uneducated, poor, middle aged white men in areas noted for racial resentment (just east of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers), and across every demographic the strongest response noted was people feeling politically disenfranchised.
It's funny that so many of his supporters claim to like Trump because of his "straight talk" despite all of his documented lies, and yet refuse to recognise exactly what Trump's "straight talk" and populist appeal actually is.
An empty protest vote tinged with nationalism at best. A b-grade TV celebrity trolling for attention and dog-whistling to bigots through tabloid gutter-press.

Bigot or not, if ya bring in the refugees you can't complain when there are no go zones like in France. I'm honestly getting sick of being called a bigot, but if it means we get to preserve our identity I'll accept the term.

Then again, it would be nice to see all the cucks that were fine with these policies unable to walk the street and without a burka or everyone afraid to go out, but personally the pleasure I'd get from "told you so" wouldn't be worth the inconvenience.

I think the hypocrisy of the left criticizing the education of Trump supporters is ridiculous given most college educated liberals can't factor a quadratic equation. They love Islamic fascists, but are afraid of math.

 

[Rational Poster]

Bigot or not, if ya bring in the refugees you can't complain when there are no go zones like in France. I'm honestly getting sick of being called a bigot, but if it means we get to preserve our identity I'll accept the term.

Then again, it would be nice to see all the cucks that were fine with these policies unable to walk the street and without a burka or everyone afraid to go out, but personally the pleasure I'd get from "told you so" wouldn't be worth the inconvenience.

I think the hypocrisy of the left criticizing the education of Trump supporters is ridiculous given most college educated liberals can't factor a quadratic equation. They love Islamic fascists, but are afraid of math.

We've let in 10,000 or less refugees, mostly women and children, in a country of 350M+

I think our identity is fine.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

It's getting real out here lol. You might get shot for supporting Trump in the wrong neighborhood.

Dude, I'm not even joking. The hostility and vitriol that Trump and his supporters get is out of control. If I wore a Trump/Pence shirt in downtown I would be assaulted, spit on, have shit thrown at me...

I'm not talking about the pussy libs who say things like:

"...if Trump gets elected I'm moving to Canada blah blah blah"

I'm talking about the libs and "progressives" who genuinely believe that Trump is the next Hitler and believe that his followers are all racist.

 

[Ruprecht]

Bigot or not, if ya bring in the refugees you can't complain when there are no go zones like in France. I'm honestly getting sick of being called a bigot, but if it means we get to preserve our identity I'll accept the term.

Then again, it would be nice to see all the cucks that were fine with these policies unable to walk the street and without a burka or everyone afraid to go out, but personally the pleasure I'd get from "told you so" wouldn't be worth the inconvenience.

I think the hypocrisy of the left criticizing the education of Trump supporters is ridiculous given most college educated liberals can't factor a quadratic equation. They love Islamic fascists, but are afraid of math.

Again, you clearly don't bother to read the link. The lack of education isn't cited to promote some ridiculously ignorant stereotype like, "duh Trump voters are stupid" or "duh liberals can't do math". It's a matter of which group has been hurt the most by economic globalisation and immigration. The answer is, uneducated and unskilled labour in developed nations.
Factor in the resulting dissatisfaction and feelings of disenfranchisement, along with the appeal to bigotry (or being shit scared of Muslims if you prefer), in-group identity politics and a bit of nationalism... that's Trump's campaign.

 

[Sir Galahad]

Obama's ratings way down in Louisiana.

 

[Joe]

the undercover trump fan that is so afraid to reveal he supports trump that he wont even reveal it to pollsters is the funniest shit. btw saying you dont support publicly or even privately doesnt do him any favors.

 

[TUFNewb]

the undercover trump fan that is so afraid to reveal he supports trump that he wont even reveal it to pollsters is the funniest shit. btw saying you dont support publicly or even privately doesnt do him any favors.

The funny thing is Trumpsters love to talk about is how enthusiastic the base is, size of his rallies, number of yard signs, social media followers, etc.. but when it comes to telling a stranger who they are going to vote for, all of the sudden they're shy lol?



In other news:



Absolutely BRUTAL!

 

[ncordless]

Obama's ratings way down in Louisiana.

And that matters how? Clinton's running, not Obama. And regardless, your state is too red to matter in a Presidential election.

 

[Quipling]

Dude, I'm not even joking. The hostility and vitriol that Trump and his supporters get is out of control. If I wore a Trump/Pence shirt in downtown I would be assaulted, spit on, have shit thrown at me...

I'm not talking about the pussy libs who say things like:

"...if Trump gets elected I'm moving to Canada blah blah blah"

I'm talking about the libs and "progressives" who genuinely believe that Trump is the next Hitler and believe that his followers are all racist.

Lol, "conservative" Trump supporters playing the victim card again. Nothing new here.

 

[Blackened]

We've let in 10,000 or less refugees, mostly women and children, in a country of 350M+

I think our identity is fine.

Hillary wants to bring in 300,000 more. Make it a clean 1%. Just watch.

I know most of you people are bad at math, but let's take a look. 30,000 terrorist attacks since 9/11. 7 billion people on this planet. Average lifespan around 80 years. So roughly 1 in 45,000 people will experience a terrorist attack in their lifetime. These numbers will continue to increase, if the trends continue (they will).

 

[ncordless]

Dude, I'm not even joking. The hostility and vitriol that Trump and his supporters get is out of control. If I wore a Trump/Pence shirt in downtown I would be assaulted, spit on, have shit thrown at me...

I'm not talking about the pussy libs who say things like:

"...if Trump gets elected I'm moving to Canada blah blah blah"

I'm talking about the libs and "progressives" who genuinely believe that Trump is the next Hitler and believe that his followers are all racist.

If I wore a Trump hat in Portland, people would either assume I am being ironic or start a protest around me. 3 hotel guys were rumored to be involved in a Trump fundraiser and just about got lynched before they disavowed any relationship or support for him. He's hated so much, the alt-weeklies are throwing their support behind Clinton instead of Stein.

His schtick has not gone over well on the best coast.

 

[ncordless]

Hillary wants to bring in 300,000 more. Make it a clean 1%. Just watch.

I know most of you people are bad at math, but let's take a look. 30,000 terrorist attacks since 9/11. 7 billion people on this planet. Average lifespan around 80 years. So roughly 1 in 45,000 people will experience a terrorist attack in their lifetime. These numbers will continue to increase, if the trends continue (they will).

That's the same percent chance that an asteroid will hit the Earth in 2036.

 

[Rational Poster]

Hillary wants to bring in 300,000 more. Make it a clean 1%. Just watch.

I know most of you people are bad at math, but let's take a look. 30,000 terrorist attacks since 9/11. 7 billion people on this planet. Average lifespan around 80 years. So roughly 1 in 45,000 people will experience a terrorist attack in their lifetime. These numbers will continue to increase, if the trends continue (they will).

You accuse me of being bad at math then you're bad at math in the same paragraph.

300,000 is not 1% of 350M+

That's assuming your made up 300,000 is true.. the biggest number I've seen is about 60-70,000 refugees.