I do believe Alex will win the rematch vs Ank and I also believe he will try a HW run/superfight
I dont think Alex beats Tom, tho. Jones should be less hard (I wont say easier, cause both are hard opponents for him)
I do believe he beats Tom. He's elite and the best or tied with Ank as the modern LHW era. HW is still with Gane as #1 contender. Gane was subbed by JJ, who when younger had more troubles with LHW opponents who aren't on the same level as those that Alex destroyed (Santos, Reyes).
Alex has a proven solid grappling and TDD vs a better grappler in Ank. Has proven cardio, is more active, has fought better competition. And without cutting to 205 he'd fight with a lean 245 lbs frame which he showed to have. Calf kicks with that added mass are even more lethal, as proven when Alex went up to LHW.
Tom depends on his lead leg a lot for his quick entries. Plus, he has quick hands movements but his striking isn't as polished as Ankalaev's never mind Alex. He goes on flurries and resets tall, which leaves him open to counter hooks (similar to Hill). He hasn't more power than Alex, specially when Alex is at HW... And his TD % is off 4 attempts, a small sample. If we look at just stats we need to account that he has tried few TDs. His background isn't grappling, it's jiujitsu. Not to say he can't grapple, but not like Ankalaev.
I see it 60/40 for Alex. More tested cardio, better striking, proven TDD and grappling (which evolved a lot), far more active and has beaten 5 world champions. If it goes the distance I think it's a 49-46 Alex, tho I think Alex gets to him by 3rd or 4th round TKO. Pereira isn't the same as others 37 yo. He got later into MMA and is more active than most fighters younger than him. Like Glover who was champion at 42 yo, Pereira is still improving... I see Tom as easier for him than Ankalaev, who's imo his hardest test now (Ank is 22-1...). By really focusing on what Alex and Tom have shown, I think people would be mind blown by Tom getting dragged into deep waters and beaten up. That's my opinion. We gotta see them fight.