Can anyone point to the fights I should watch which show Cereal Gone has the skillset to beat Aspinall definitively?

[Takes Two To Tango]

What?

Nothing, I didn't read your post. It's very long sorry.

 

[Ayreon]

Aspinall basically kos people with the same straight combination of jab-cross. Everytime the same combination.

If he lands it's over. Facts. But on the other hand he has no room for improvements: he's too old to learn new combos.

Gane will need to be patient, don't bum rush, don't brawl. Go in and go out like he does normally and it will be a good fight.

 

[Takes Two To Tango]

Aspinall basically kos people with the same straight combination of jab-cross. Everytime the same combination.

If he lands it's over. Facts. But on the other hand he has no room for improvements: he's too old to learn new combos.

Gane will need to be patient, don't bum rush, don't brawl. Go in and go out like he does normally and it will be a good fight.

I agree, Gane has to be sharp and methodical with his striking.

 

[ShadowRun]

It's simple Tom is a striker ... Gane has better striking the hype is around Toms grappling background he's a BJJ black belt

It's not much different than guys like gaethje who
don't wrestle but are good wrestlers...

Will Tom get Gane to the ground.. will he try..

Tom will try to bang I think this is a fact and could get put away. Or pointed out.

Games grappling defense is sus as his grappling offence it's his big weakness

Gane has "better" striking by what metric? Tom knocking guys out too quickly? Gane getting dropped by Tuivasa?

Honestly, I still think Jon Jones can beat either Tom Aspinall or Ciryl Gane ,and if that rumored UFC event at the White House actually happens next year, there’s no better headliner than Jon stepping in to remind the world who the real king is. That’s legacy stuff. That’s something Jon would live for high stakes, historic venue, all eyes on him. It’s tailor-made for his kind of return.

Now, a lot of people are acting like Tom is just going to steamroll anyone they put in front of him, and I get the hype , he’s fast, explosive, well-rounded, and has real wrestling at heavyweight, which is rare. But if we’re being honest, he’s not unbeatable. There are still a few unknowns with him, especially when you compare his experience level to someone like Gane or Jon. He’s blown through people so quickly that we haven’t really seen how he deals with adversity or if he can adjust mid-fight. What happens when the fight doesn’t go according to plan?

And that’s where Gane becomes interesting.

People are too quick to count Ciryl Gane out, especially because of the way he lost to Jon — but losing to Jon in 2 minutes doesn't automatically mean you can’t beat Tom. Gane still has some of the best striking in the division. He moves like a middleweight, has excellent range control, and his shot selection is clean. If he keeps the fight standing, Tom could have a serious problem. Gane is patient, doesn’t rush, and if Tom can’t get him down early, he’s going to have to play the kickboxing game and I’d argue Gane is much more comfortable there.

Also, Tom’s entries are fast, but he hasn’t really fought someone who moves like Gane, someone who’s light on their feet, doesn’t plod, and can faint you into hesitation. If Gane focuses on takedown defense and sticks to the outside, peppering Tom with jabs, leg kicks, and forcing him to reset, this could go very differently than people expect. Volkov was an easier stylistic matchup for Tom. Gane is not Volkov. He’s slicker, quicker, and he knows how to stay out of danger, unless he gets taken down, which is the big "if."

But if Gane sharpens up his wrestling just enough — and maybe he has been, just not publicly, there’s a real chance he frustrates Tom, keeps it standing, and outpoints or even finishes him. People act like Tom is some untouchable force, but all it takes is one slip-up against a guy like Gane, and suddenly you’re on your back foot, getting kicked apart.

So let’s say that happens. Let’s say Gane beats Tom. Then what?

Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane 2 , but this time at the White House, with Gane on a redemption arc and Jon coming back from injury, defending his GOAT status. That sells itself. And Gane would want that rematch badly. You know that first loss ate at him. He probably still thinks he didn’t show who he really was in there. That’s the kind of motivation that lights a fire under someone. Especially if he proves himself by beating the interim champ.

Now, if Jon wants that fight, and let’s be clear, it’s always “if Jon wants it” because he’s earned the right to pick his moment , I think he can beat either of them. We’ve already seen what he did to Gane. Against Tom, it’d be a bigger test, sure, but Jon’s fight IQ is on another level. He’s the master of taking away your best weapon. Whether it’s Tom’s speed, wrestling, or momentum, Jon knows how to slow that down and make it his kind of fight. He’s not trying to win a highlight reel; he’s trying to break you mentally, systematically.

And if it’s under the spotlight of the first-ever UFC event at the White House? You know Jon would be dialed in. This is a guy who performs best when the pressure is insane. Think about it: D.C., Secret Service, the President cageside, world media and Jon walks in like a living legend, defending his title (or reclaiming it). There’s no way he’s losing that fight. That’s the kind of stage Jon was built for.

So whether it’s Tom or Gane both dangerous in their own ways I still think Jon’s the man to beat. And I wouldn’t be shocked at all if it’s Gane who shocks the world first, beats Tom, and gets that run-back. People forget how close these matchups really are when you take the hype out of the equation.

 

[TeenageMutantLesnarTurtle]

There arent any really. Even the Ngannou fight, as impressive as it was that he could keep it that close, and even though I would favour Ngannou over Tom, it doesnt really tell us much about how Tom/Gane will go.

From what we have seen all we can really say with confidence is that Gane is defensively skilled enough standing to nullify Toms striking game better than others have so far. But then Gane doesnt have a lot of power himself and has shown plenty of vulnerability to wrestling. Honestly the only way I can see Gane winning this is if it turns out that Toms cardio is actually really bad and he falls apart in the later rounds.

 

[TeenageMutantLesnarTurtle]

Honestly, I still think Jon Jones can beat either Tom Aspinall or Ciryl Gane ,and if that rumored UFC event at the White House actually happens next year, there’s no better headliner than Jon stepping in to remind the world who the real king is. That’s legacy stuff. That’s something Jon would live for high stakes, historic venue, all eyes on him. It’s tailor-made for his kind of return.

Now, a lot of people are acting like Tom is just going to steamroll anyone they put in front of him, and I get the hype , he’s fast, explosive, well-rounded, and has real wrestling at heavyweight, which is rare. But if we’re being honest, he’s not unbeatable. There are still a few unknowns with him, especially when you compare his experience level to someone like Gane or Jon. He’s blown through people so quickly that we haven’t really seen how he deals with adversity or if he can adjust mid-fight. What happens when the fight doesn’t go according to plan?

And that’s where Gane becomes interesting.

People are too quick to count Ciryl Gane out, especially because of the way he lost to Jon — but losing to Jon in 2 minutes doesn't automatically mean you can’t beat Tom. Gane still has some of the best striking in the division. He moves like a middleweight, has excellent range control, and his shot selection is clean. If he keeps the fight standing, Tom could have a serious problem. Gane is patient, doesn’t rush, and if Tom can’t get him down early, he’s going to have to play the kickboxing game and I’d argue Gane is much more comfortable there.

Also, Tom’s entries are fast, but he hasn’t really fought someone who moves like Gane, someone who’s light on their feet, doesn’t plod, and can faint you into hesitation. If Gane focuses on takedown defense and sticks to the outside, peppering Tom with jabs, leg kicks, and forcing him to reset, this could go very differently than people expect. Volkov was an easier stylistic matchup for Tom. Gane is not Volkov. He’s slicker, quicker, and he knows how to stay out of danger, unless he gets taken down, which is the big "if."

But if Gane sharpens up his wrestling just enough — and maybe he has been, just not publicly, there’s a real chance he frustrates Tom, keeps it standing, and outpoints or even finishes him. People act like Tom is some untouchable force, but all it takes is one slip-up against a guy like Gane, and suddenly you’re on your back foot, getting kicked apart.

So let’s say that happens. Let’s say Gane beats Tom. Then what?

Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane 2 , but this time at the White House, with Gane on a redemption arc and Jon coming back from injury, defending his GOAT status. That sells itself. And Gane would want that rematch badly. You know that first loss ate at him. He probably still thinks he didn’t show who he really was in there. That’s the kind of motivation that lights a fire under someone. Especially if he proves himself by beating the interim champ.

Now, if Jon wants that fight, and let’s be clear, it’s always “if Jon wants it” because he’s earned the right to pick his moment , I think he can beat either of them. We’ve already seen what he did to Gane. Against Tom, it’d be a bigger test, sure, but Jon’s fight IQ is on another level. He’s the master of taking away your best weapon. Whether it’s Tom’s speed, wrestling, or momentum, Jon knows how to slow that down and make it his kind of fight. He’s not trying to win a highlight reel; he’s trying to break you mentally, systematically.

And if it’s under the spotlight of the first-ever UFC event at the White House? You know Jon would be dialed in. This is a guy who performs best when the pressure is insane. Think about it: D.C., Secret Service, the President cageside, world media and Jon walks in like a living legend, defending his title (or reclaiming it). There’s no way he’s losing that fight. That’s the kind of stage Jon was built for.

So whether it’s Tom or Gane both dangerous in their own ways I still think Jon’s the man to beat. And I wouldn’t be shocked at all if it’s Gane who shocks the world first, beats Tom, and gets that run-back. People forget how close these matchups really are when you take the hype out of the equation.

Its way too risky having an American fighter vs a foreign fighter who actually has a solid chance of winning on that card. It'd look insanely dumb if the American gets steamrolled at the fucking White House while the President is sitting there.

 

[TheTickG]

I am at a loss on this one. It seems all aspects lean towards Aspinall

Some good fights to watch that might prepare you for the possibility of Gane winning are:
- Nunes vs that other lady where Nunes unexpectedly lost.
- Shavkat vs Ian Garry, where Shavkat unexpectedly looked bad.
- Paddy vs Chandler, where Paddy looked unexpectedly good.

 

[pamirec]

Rooting for Aspinal, but Gone does have a chance. He may weather the storm early on and win a decision. As of right now Gone has the cardio advantage due to the mystery around Aspinal’s ability to fight all five rounds.

 

[ShadowRun]

Its way too risky having an American fighter vs a foreign fighter who actually has a solid chance of winning on that card. It'd look insanely dumb if the American gets steamrolled at the fucking White House while the President is sitting there.

Fair point but they rather have the biggest card, not caring about where a fighter is from.

 

[bng]

Can anyone point to the fights I should watch which show Cereal Gone has the skillset to beat Aspinall definitively?/

Gayne - Volkov 2
there you can see Gayne has all needed attributes to win a fight, such as "Ref's best friend" card and "Dana White privilege" card
all Gayne has to do is to survive 5 rounds vs. Asspedal

 

[mkess101]

Honestly, I still think Jon Jones can beat either Tom Aspinall or Ciryl Gane ,and if that rumored UFC event at the White House actually happens next year, there’s no better headliner than Jon stepping in to remind the world who the real king is. That’s legacy stuff. That’s something Jon would live for high stakes, historic venue, all eyes on him. It’s tailor-made for his kind of return.

Now, a lot of people are acting like Tom is just going to steamroll anyone they put in front of him, and I get the hype , he’s fast, explosive, well-rounded, and has real wrestling at heavyweight, which is rare. But if we’re being honest, he’s not unbeatable. There are still a few unknowns with him, especially when you compare his experience level to someone like Gane or Jon. He’s blown through people so quickly that we haven’t really seen how he deals with adversity or if he can adjust mid-fight. What happens when the fight doesn’t go according to plan?

And that’s where Gane becomes interesting.

People are too quick to count Ciryl Gane out, especially because of the way he lost to Jon — but losing to Jon in 2 minutes doesn't automatically mean you can’t beat Tom. Gane still has some of the best striking in the division. He moves like a middleweight, has excellent range control, and his shot selection is clean. If he keeps the fight standing, Tom could have a serious problem. Gane is patient, doesn’t rush, and if Tom can’t get him down early, he’s going to have to play the kickboxing game and I’d argue Gane is much more comfortable there.

Also, Tom’s entries are fast, but he hasn’t really fought someone who moves like Gane, someone who’s light on their feet, doesn’t plod, and can faint you into hesitation. If Gane focuses on takedown defense and sticks to the outside, peppering Tom with jabs, leg kicks, and forcing him to reset, this could go very differently than people expect. Volkov was an easier stylistic matchup for Tom. Gane is not Volkov. He’s slicker, quicker, and he knows how to stay out of danger, unless he gets taken down, which is the big "if."

But if Gane sharpens up his wrestling just enough — and maybe he has been, just not publicly, there’s a real chance he frustrates Tom, keeps it standing, and outpoints or even finishes him. People act like Tom is some untouchable force, but all it takes is one slip-up against a guy like Gane, and suddenly you’re on your back foot, getting kicked apart.

So let’s say that happens. Let’s say Gane beats Tom. Then what?

Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane 2 , but this time at the White House, with Gane on a redemption arc and Jon coming back from injury, defending his GOAT status. That sells itself. And Gane would want that rematch badly. You know that first loss ate at him. He probably still thinks he didn’t show who he really was in there. That’s the kind of motivation that lights a fire under someone. Especially if he proves himself by beating the interim champ.

Now, if Jon wants that fight, and let’s be clear, it’s always “if Jon wants it” because he’s earned the right to pick his moment , I think he can beat either of them. We’ve already seen what he did to Gane. Against Tom, it’d be a bigger test, sure, but Jon’s fight IQ is on another level. He’s the master of taking away your best weapon. Whether it’s Tom’s speed, wrestling, or momentum, Jon knows how to slow that down and make it his kind of fight. He’s not trying to win a highlight reel; he’s trying to break you mentally, systematically.

And if it’s under the spotlight of the first-ever UFC event at the White House? You know Jon would be dialed in. This is a guy who performs best when the pressure is insane. Think about it: D.C., Secret Service, the President cageside, world media and Jon walks in like a living legend, defending his title (or reclaiming it). There’s no way he’s losing that fight. That’s the kind of stage Jon was built for.

So whether it’s Tom or Gane both dangerous in their own ways I still think Jon’s the man to beat. And I wouldn’t be shocked at all if it’s Gane who shocks the world first, beats Tom, and gets that run-back. People forget how close these matchups really are when you take the hype out of the equation.

Nobody, including Aspinall, is "unbeatable". Especially at HW. Of course Gane CAN win. Just like Jones COULD win if he fought Aspinall.

If we're talking likelihood...there's a reason Aspinall is favored over both. A heavier favorite vs Gane for sure, but even favored over Jones when the casual bettor is FAR more likely to know who Jones is.

 

[mkess101]

Aspinall basically kos people with the same straight combination of jab-cross. Everytime the same combination.

If he lands it's over. Facts. But on the other hand he has no room for improvements: he's too old to learn new combos.

Gane will need to be patient, don't bum rush, don't brawl. Go in and go out like he does normally and it will be a good fight.

He KO'd Pavlovich throwing the straight first, then a jab, then another straight. Spivac was in the clinch, Aspinall landed a solid knee but then a couple crushing elbows to drop him.

Me thinks you're simplifying a bit here...

 

[ShadowRun]

Nobody, including Aspinall, is "unbeatable". Especially at HW. Of course Gane CAN win. Just like Jones COULD win if he fought Aspinall.

If we're talking likelihood...there's a reason Aspinall is favored over both. A heavier favorite vs Gane for sure, but even favored over Jones when the casual bettor is FAR more likely to know who Jones is.

Machida was favored over Shogun and should of not been. Even oddsmakers fall for the hype train. Tom should NOT be favored over Jones at all, but Gane makes sense. I will be betting on Gane when they fight

 

[mkess101]

Machida was favored over Shogun and should of not been. Even oddsmakers fall for the hype train. Tom should NOT be favored over Jones at all, but Gane makes sense. I will be betting on Gane when they fight

Oddsmakers have to be right more than they're wrong, or they are out of business. So again, I agree that doesn't mean Gane or Jones CAN'T win--of course they can. But Aspinall is favored for a reason.

 

[Goatenstein]

Gane wins fights via skill or corrupt decision but not lucky punches only.

 

[ShadowRun]

Oddsmakers have to be right more than they're wrong, or they are out of business. So again, I agree that doesn't mean Gane or Jones CAN'T win--of course they can. But Aspinall is favored for a reason.

You also know odds starts changing when people start betting, I would imagine a few days before the fight Jones would be the favorite

 

[HI SCOTT NEWMAN]

Except the Jones fight, all the other of Gane's fights tend to go quite long, a lot go to decision the full 5, and other fights end in later stoppages, round 3,4 and 5 usually in his fights. This is important if we are looking at any reason why Gane can win, because Tom has never ever been past 1 and 1/2 rounds, the longest fight was 7 minutes, so there are still unknowns, what if Tom doesn't finish him quickly, and the fight drags on, will Tom start to blow up and get frustrated. Thats the only thing I can come up with.

 

[mkess101]

You also know odds starts changing when people start betting, I would imagine a few days before the fight Jones would be the favorite

Haha believe me I understand betting markets as well as anyone on this forum. Yes, lines move with action. When Jones/Aspinall seemed like a foregone conclusion, markets were open. Limits were low, but the books use those openers to gauge if they've gotten the line right or if they need to adjust. The lines were open quite awhile and Aspinall remained the favorite.

Jones would likely not become the favorite were the fight to be made UNLESS we saw Tom beat Gane but really struggle with him. That could sway the betting public potentially. Otherwise if Aspinall finished Gane with little trouble, he'd remain favored over Jones.

 

[mkess101]

Gane wins fights via skill or corrupt decision but not lucky punches only.

It takes a special kind of stupidity to see someone do something over and over and attribute it to "luck".

 

[VAfan]

points for Cereal Gone. i chuckled.