Alex vs Tom needs to be done!!

[Luffy]

Absolutely we can make a gentleman's wager on it it ever happens. Tom will be too big, too strong, too good a grappler for Alex. I do bet $ on fights, but would probably pass on this matchup because Tom will be too juiced. Alex is a dangerous striker obviously so paying -400 or whatever on Tom wouldn't make sense. But most likely he'd steamroll Alex and make it look easy. Wouldn't be a knoc on Alex, just losing to a bigger, younger and more well rounded guy.

Yeah the fight will happen and sure let's do a friendly betting.

Look, I'm not overlooking Tom’s speed plus his wrestling package, but the idea he “steamrolls” Pereira ignores everything we’ve actually seen in the octagon... Alex isn’t a blown-up middleweight anymore, he competes at 228-232 lb fight-night, weighs naturally ~ 243 lbs while keeping a very lean physique, had stuffed 8/9 TDs from a heavier Jan Błachowicz when he was still improving his wrestling in his first LHW fight, and absorbed zero control time from Magomed Ankalaev and not even a single TD all while fighting with Norovirus and a bad hand (which isn't an excuse, but it's important when you know that Pereira will fight Tom when healthy)... And Ankalaev is an opponent who is a far cleaner chain-wrestler than Tom. Meanwhile Aspinall’s sample size above seven minutes is basically a blank sheet vs opponents who were never #1 of HW, let alone champions of HW, an easier division than LHW for sure... When bouts stretch, like vs Arlovski, Tom's offence came from the same burst entries that calf kicks happen to punish, and Pereira’s low kick is already the most damaging single strike in the division (see Jiri after two fights vs Pereira)... Add that to a HW Pereira vs a HW who isn't used to get leg kicks much less by an elite kickboxer, yeah...

On the feet the matchup is even tougher for Tom than most want to admit.... That's just the truth... Pereira’s >60% accuracy is the highest of any active champion over 170 lb... every mistake costs half a round, sometimes the whole fight... Tom has speed, but defensive problems, which is why Curtis Blaydes could tag him sometimes. He needs confident forward pressure to set up those blast doubles, and that pressure disappears once the lead leg is compromised... Add the fact Alex has walked through Hill’s speed (if you look at the stats, he's quick AF), Jiri's chaos, Rountree's proven big power punching with higher speed than Tom (not as much power but Khalil is officially quicker than Tom and has better striking as per metrics and background)... All that inside 12 months, and I’m not seeing a “too big, too strong” problem — I’m seeing the sport’s most efficient striker versus a heavyweight who’s never been past the second round while fighting on average one time per year (vs opponents less skilled than the ones Pereira has faced)... The fact that Tom still rehabs the knee he blew out on a checked kick vs Curtis... In short, the more data we have and the most I see it by an analytical heavy way only, the more this looks like a Pereira's W by surgical dismantling... By no means an easy night for Tom. Could happen, but I'm highly confident of what I'm speaking.

Yeah I sure can do a friendly bet for fun here, I want to test my analysis skills considering how much time I've invested in UFC lol when I try something for a while, I was told by ppl I have a huge potential to learn, that is a unique talent. I myself haven't noticed when ppl (mainly doctors, neurologist actually) say it, but since I've become very interested in going deep into UFC, I'm glad to be having those friendly bets. If I'm wrong then I will be like oh yeah I thought wrong... I've really not nearly the emotional investment in feeling devastated in the way that some ppl think. I genuinely argue what I think stands as more likely... I'm the most neutral I can ever be, believe me... It's what I wish will happen yeah, but also, my analysis are totally unbiased. I wish Chimaev smashes DDP and I hope he does it and I'm wrong... However, I see that as more unlikely than not (despite rooting for Khamzat)...

 

[mkess101]

Yeah the fight will happen and sure let's do a friendly betting.

Look, I'm not overlooking Tom’s speed plus his wrestling package, but the idea he “steamrolls” Pereira ignores everything we’ve actually seen in the octagon... Alex isn’t a blown-up middleweight anymore, he competes at 228-232 lb fight-night, weighs naturally ~ 243 lbs while keeping a very lean physique, had stuffed 8/9 TDs from a heavier Jan Błachowicz when he was still improving his wrestling in his first LHW fight, and absorbed zero control time from Magomed Ankalaev and not even a single TD all while fighting with Norovirus and a bad hand (which isn't an excuse, but it's important when you know that Pereira will fight Tom when healthy)... And Ankalaev is an opponent who is a far cleaner chain-wrestler than Tom. Meanwhile Aspinall’s sample size above seven minutes is basically a blank sheet vs opponents who were never #1 of HW, let alone champions of HW, an easier division than LHW for sure... When bouts stretch, like vs Arlovski, Tom's offence came from the same burst entries that calf kicks happen to punish, and Pereira’s low kick is already the most damaging single strike in the division (see Jiri after two fights vs Pereira)... Add that to a HW Pereira vs a HW who isn't used to get leg kicks much less by an elite kickboxer, yeah...

On the feet the matchup is even tougher for Tom than most want to admit.... That's just the truth... Pereira’s >60% accuracy is the highest of any active champion over 170 lb... every mistake costs half a round, sometimes the whole fight... Tom has speed, but defensive problems, which is why Curtis Blaydes could tag him sometimes. He needs confident forward pressure to set up those blast doubles, and that pressure disappears once the lead leg is compromised... Add the fact Alex has walked through Hill’s speed (if you look at the stats, he's quick AF), Jiri's chaos, Rountree's proven big power punching with higher speed than Tom (not as much power but Khalil is officially quicker than Tom and has better striking as per metrics and background)... All that inside 12 months, and I’m not seeing a “too big, too strong” problem — I’m seeing the sport’s most efficient striker versus a heavyweight who’s never been past the second round while fighting on average one time per year (vs opponents less skilled than the ones Pereira has faced)... The fact that Tom still rehabs the knee he blew out on a checked kick vs Curtis... In short, the more data we have and the most I see it by an analytical heavy way only, the more this looks like a Pereira's W by surgical dismantling... By no means an easy night for Tom. Could happen, but I'm highly confident of what I'm speaking.

Yeah I sure can do a friendly bet for fun here, I want to test my analysis skills considering how much time I've invested in UFC lol when I try something for a while, I was told by ppl I have a huge potential to learn, that is a unique talent. I myself haven't noticed when ppl (mainly doctors, neurologist actually) say it, but since I've become very interested in going deep into UFC, I'm glad to be having those friendly bets. If I'm wrong then I will be like oh yeah I thought wrong... I've really not nearly the emotional investment in feeling devastated in the way that some ppl think. I genuinely argue what I think stands as more likely... I'm the most neutral I can ever be, believe me... It's what I wish will happen yeah, but also, my analysis are totally unbiased. I wish Chimaev smashes DDP and I hope he does it and I'm wrong... However, I see that as more unlikely than not (despite rooting for Khamzat)...

Luffy, it doesn't ignore what we've seen because we've LITERALLY never seen Alex deal with a True HW at all, let alone one as athletic and fast as Tom. You saying "Oh he's big, oh Jan was bigger and he stuffed some of his TD's"...that's just you projecting what you want to be true. You'll deny it and that's fine but there's a stone cold reality that one guy is a true 255lb+ HW and the other isn’t. All the rest is just projecting. Sorry, I'm absolutely not saying it to be a dick. I promise. It's just the truth. And it's WHY Aspinall would be heavily favored.

 

[Tweak896]

No, the path he chose is literally what is the best for the division. If he vacated without facing Ankalaev, then ppl would always say "Ankalaev is trash". The honorable thing to do is to pass the torch if you go up... So you dint hold a division down to your standards. I'm fact, Alex was almost pulled off the fight due to him being very I'll when fighting Ankalaev, but he said he doesn't regret... He even said that losing the LHW gets him to not hold a belt. Btw, look at Dana saying, Alex is set to face the winner of Tom and Cyril Gane... And DC is saying he thinks Alex Pereira will call out JJ to a last fight. It's not for nothing those fighters are thinking on Alex Vs Jon Jones... It's not for nothing Tom is hesitant on calling Alex... Alex is the biggest fight he can have, even more than JJ in terms of money. The fact he was even calling Ankaalev to build a rematch vs Alex means that — he isn't confident enough to take on Alex. Like Illia Topuria said, "the UFC needs to show Alex fighting soon". Real knows real

I'm glad he fought Ankalaev, I'm just saying with a L to Ank, the path to HW is atleast single fight longer. This guy fought as champ 3x in a year, I'm sure 1 HW fight wouldn't kill him before a title shot. I do want to see Aspinall vs Pereira, just properly. Either he's a champ moving up weight or fights once.

I literally said no one has ever lost a belt and got a title shot up a weightclass they've never fought at. Would be cool to see a triple champ, but not a shortcut.

 

[Luffy]

Luffy, it doesn't ignore what we've seen because we've LITERALLY never seen Alex deal with a True HW at all, let alone one as athletic and fast as Tom. You saying "Oh he's big, oh Jan was bigger and he stuffed some of his TD's"...that's just you projecting what you want to be true. You'll deny it and that's fine but there's a stone cold reality that one guy is a true 255lb+ HW and the other isn’t. All the rest is just projecting. Sorry, I'm absolutely not saying it to be a dick. I promise. It's just the truth. And it's WHY Aspinall would be heavily favored.

You have an impulse to circle the weight on the "tale-of-the-tape" and stop there, but “true 255-pound heavyweight” isn’t the clean trump card it sounds like.... First off, Alex has lived most of his kickboxing career knocking out legit heavyweight guys listed at 240-250 in Glory — while walking to the ring at 225 lb himself. Plus, most of the UFC’s top big fighters (Stipe, Ngannou, Gane) have been in that 240-255 window, not the old Brock Lesnar 280 class, so the mass gap between Tom’s usual fight-night weight and a hydrated Pereira is 10-ish pounds, not a full division (guess you ignored Pereira weighing 244 lbs while lean and strong, keeping the same speed as shown on footage? Tom said he weighs 250 lbs nowadays btw so make it ~ 7 lbs advantage for Tom)... The game doesn’t start at the scale, it starts at range... Tom’s entire wrestling lane is built off burst entries... you compromise that burst with calf-kicks, which happens to be one of Pereira’s highest scoring strike, before the takedown sequence even begins. We watched Jan shoot nine times and come up empty eight while Pereira was developing his grappling still... We then watched Ankalaev who took Jan down easily when he wanted, a cleaner chain-wrestler than Tom, go 0/12 on dominant positions over 5 rounds vs a compromised Pereira... That’s data, not projection, my friend...

Now, I flip the ledger — what does Tom show when plan A stalls? No five minutes round of measured pocket exchanges, no proof of cardio past the 2nd round mark (in fact he was breathing more heavily in the 2nd round vs Arlovski), plus his knee that detonated on a checked low-kick by Blaydes and to which he said is the problem now, that his knee isn't the same... Pereira’s path is more defendable and easier to see happening than vice versa actually — jab frame, damage the lead leg reducing bounciness, someone no HW did to him and the best are of Pereira specially when fighting at 244 lbs, make the bigger athlete shoot from too far out, change level to the head when the guard drops.
Size matters only if it reaches the phase where it can be applied... Poatan’s entire showcase skills is built around ensuring it never gets that far as mentioned above... If you want to favour Aspinall because you trust his upside more, fair play. But calling the result a foregone conclusion on “true heavyweight” grounds is just as much projection as anything you think I’m doing on the Pereira side... And I'm fine with whatever you think, but I keep strong on this one, Pereira beats Tom and I see it as more than likely. That's why I suggested the friendly betting, because I'm legit confident he will do it. If you're secure with whatever you think, fine, no one's holding you back from having your opinion. I stick to mine though and I'm very confident. That's it. We will see when the fight happens though, and I'm pretty confident Pereira will get his 3rd belt. I can be wrong ofc but do I really think Pereira will do it more likely than not when they fight? Sure!

 

[mkess101]

You have an impulse to circle the weight on the "tale-of-the-tape" and stop there, but “true 255-pound heavyweight” isn’t the clean trump card it sounds like.... First off, Alex has lived most of his kickboxing career knocking out legit heavyweight guys listed at 240-250 in Glory — while walking to the ring at 225 lb himself. Plus, most of the UFC’s top big fighters (Stipe, Ngannou, Gane) have been in that 240-255 window, not the old Brock Lesnar 280 class, so the mass gap between Tom’s usual fight-night weight and a hydrated Pereira is 10-ish pounds, not a full division (guess you ignored Pereira weighing 244 lbs while lean and strong, keeping the same speed as shown on footage? Tom said he weighs 250 lbs nowadays btw so make it ~ 7 lbs advantage for Tom)... The game doesn’t start at the scale, it starts at range... Tom’s entire wrestling lane is built off burst entries... you compromise that burst with calf-kicks, which happens to be one of Pereira’s highest scoring strike, before the takedown sequence even begins. We watched Jan shoot nine times and come up empty eight while Pereira was developing his grappling still... We then watched Ankalaev who took Jan down easily when he wanted, a cleaner chain-wrestler than Tom, go 0/12 on dominant positions over 5 rounds vs a compromised Pereira... That’s data, not projection, my friend...

Now, I flip the ledger — what does Tom show when plan A stalls? No five minutes round of measured pocket exchanges, no proof of cardio past the 2nd round mark (in fact he was breathing more heavily in the 2nd round vs Arlovski), plus his knee that detonated on a checked low-kick by Blaydes and to which he said is the problem now, that his knee isn't the same... Pereira’s path is more defendable and easier to see happening than vice versa actually — jab frame, damage the lead leg reducing bounciness, someone no HW did to him and the best are of Pereira specially when fighting at 244 lbs, make the bigger athlete shoot from too far out, change level to the head when the guard drops.
Size matters only if it reaches the phase where it can be applied... Poatan’s entire showcase skills is built around ensuring it never gets that far as mentioned above... If you want to favour Aspinall because you trust his upside more, fair play. But calling the result a foregone conclusion on “true heavyweight” grounds is just as much projection as anything you think I’m doing on the Pereira side... And I'm fine with whatever you think, but I keep strong on this one, Pereira beats Tom and I see it as more than likely. That's why I suggested the friendly betting, because I'm legit confident he will do it. If you're secure with whatever you think, fine, no one's holding you back from having your opinion. I stick to mine though and I'm very confident. That's it. We will see when the fight happens though, and I'm pretty confident Pereira will get his 3rd belt. I can be wrong ofc but do I really think Pereira will do it more likely than not when they fight? Sure!

You just typed a lot more of the same projection, my dude. I know you think you didn't, but ya did.

 

[Luffy]

You just typed a lot more of the same projection, my dude. I know you think you didn't, but ya did.

It's not the same ""projection""". If you don't feel you can handle the debate, it's fine. But I addressed what you brought up mainly. It's nice to admit you have no counter, you don't need to say something cheeky and untrue just so you can't say "fair enough". I take it as you having no counter. Ok. I respect your opinion but I keep mine and it's strong enough you can't refute. Fine, we move on.

 

[mkess101]

It's not the same ""projection""". If you don't feel you can handle the debate, it's fine. But I addressed what you brought up mainly. It's nice to admit you have no counter, you don't need to say something cheeky and untrue just so you can't say "fair enough". I take it as you having no counter. Ok. I respect your opinion but I keep mine and it's strong enough you can't refute. Fine, we move on.

Luffy there's nothing to refute. All of your arguments are based on "Well so and so said _________" and then you expect people to just acquiesce and accept those opinions as fact. Fighters are wrong ALL THE TIME. Or you shotgun things that are your opinion and expect them to be accepted as gospel but that's not how it works.

And the other thing--who said the outcome was a "foregone conclusion"? I literally said I would NOT bet on Aspinall because the odds would be too wide. If I actually believed the outcome was a "foregone conclusion", I'd bet on Tom even as a big favorite. Will Aspinall win if they fight? Most likely. Is it guaranteed? Of course not.

Also, looking at Pereira's Glory career I'm only seeing MW and LHW fights. I could be missing where he fought at HW. But the LHW limit is 209 lbs. So unless he had HW fights, he wasn't KO'ing guys 240-250.
Also, Alex at 243 didn’t look as good. Just because you say YOU think he did--that's what I mean--others aren't going to take your opinion as fact.

 

[Luffy]

Luffy there's nothing to refute. All of your arguments are based on "Well so and so said _________" and then you expect people to just acquiesce and accept those opinions as fact. Fighters are wrong ALL THE TIME. Or you shotgun things that are your opinion and expect them to be accepted as gospel but that's not how it works.

And the other thing--who said the outcome was a "foregone conclusion"? I literally said I would NOT bet on Aspinall because the odds would be too wide. If I actually believed the outcome was a "foregone conclusion", I'd bet on Tom even as a big favorite. Will Aspinall win if they fight? Most likely. Is it guaranteed? Of course not.

Also, looking at Pereira's Glory career I'm only seeing MW and LHW fights. I could be missing where he fought at HW. But the LHW limit is 209 lbs. So unless he had HW fights, he wasn't KO'ing guys 240-250.
Also, Alex at 243 didn’t look as good. Just because you say YOU think he did--that's what I mean--others aren't going to take your opinion as fact.

Mkess, saying “there’s nothing to refute” while skipping over the 90% of points I’ve laid out reads less like a knockout blow and more like stepping out of the exchange... Someone who doesn't have much to add, is what you're showing basically... I’m not asking you to take someone’s word as gospel, I’m pointing to measurable things — strike‑accuracy %, TDD stats, actual fight‑night weights (Pereira showed to be incredible while weighing ~230 lbs vs Jiri and Khalil btw and Khalil recently said he weighs around 225/230 on nights day in Joe's podcast, so same weight basically) — and framing them within the fighter’s resume. This isn’t “so‑and‑so said it, therefore it’s fact”... it’s Poatan stuffing 8 out of 9 shots in his first LHW fight showing big against Jan Blachowicz, who could take Izzy down way easier... Ankalaev who's way better at wrestling than Jan and than Tom, going 0/12 on clean wrestling entries against him while Pereira wasn't at his best... A ~230 lbs Khalil who's quicker than Tom (not as powerful but he's also very powerful and quicker than Tom, with better striking) being stopped by the calf kick that Tom repeatedly eats with a compromised knee. Those are data points, not blind faith.

To be clear, I’m not claiming Pereira is a guaranteed winner; I lean his way because when weighing up all of the above, I see it about 60/40 in his favour. You yourself concede Tom would be favoured by the oddsmakers. My opinion is that the gap isn’t nearly as wide as people assume, because Poatan’s fight IQ, proven skills vs 6 champions and his skill set negate much of the not so significant size edge when applied at the right range. I'm saying there's more to the equation than "Tom is ~ 10 lbs heavier therefore he wins based off KO'ing HWs who were not even top 1 of a weak HW era that pales in comparison to LHWs"...

Regarding the kickboxing, look beyond a simple “Glory fight list.” Pereira fought in open‑weight tournaments on the regional scene as well (WGP, Jungle Fight) before the UFC, knocking out men listed around 230 lbs... Even in Glory, “light heavyweight” tops out at 95kg but not only do they hydrate with estimations implying fighting against fighters like Thomas Powell whom weighed ~240lbs, but there were open weight contests where he faced larger opponents around the 240 or 250 mark (just look at his whole fights in kickboxing and his opponents in open weight fights, as well as Glory's estimation of fighters during fight night post hydration, which you can check when typing Glory post weight rehydration, opponents like Anthem, etc, who himself is at Pereira's level while he fights at ~240 lbs and was set to face Ricco, the HW Glory kickboxer champion)... The fact you haven’t seen them doesn’t mean they didn’t happen... it just means digging deeper into the records might be worthwhile if you want to act as if you have the "answer which is obvious " when you constantly show you do not...

At the end of the day, yes, weight matters, but Pereira in heavy (where did you take the notion he wasn't as good as 244 lbs? He's as lean and with barely any fat mass and drills at the same speed as seen in his footages, heck he can maintain better stamina at this weight since he's naturally 240 lbs) only if the game plan makes it matter. Tom relies on explosive entries to leverage his mass... Pereira is very big and can very likely neutralize those bursts with stance framing, calf kicks, and lateral movement (things Pereira has already used effectively against 240/250, faster kickboxers who are way better than Tom in the stand up) and the supposed “stone‑cold truth” starts to crack... I’m not asking you to flip your stance dude, you’re entitled to your view. But to say there’s nothing to respond to while leaving most of the technical substance unaddressed only strengthens my own confidence. When this fight happens, we’ll find out whose read was closer to rea
lity.

Tom said he knows Pereira wants to go to HW and said that "I've a lot of respect for Alex. I will fight Gane and then if things go right I think Alex Pereira is inevitable. And that's gonna be one of the toughest challenges in my career. I'm in. Like I've said, I think Alex Pereira is one of the most dangerous guys to ever compete in the UFC... I want to be 100% ready because if I lose, I won't feel bad... No, it's obviously gonna suck, not gonna lie, but if I lose, I want to have given 100% of what I could. I want for people to see that I did my best. The fear of losing is real, but if that happens I want to know I left it all there" — interview with UK Journalist Adam who asked him "a fight that is most interesting and the biggest one is vs Alex Pereira, he has called you... That'd be the biggest fight you could have without Jon Jones"... Then Tom said that he will face Gane and that he wants to be at his best, saying he wants to go there and have fun vs the most dangerous guy (which he said Alex Pereira) and said if he loses, then he wants to have given his best...

Those are Tom's own words... You say I'm posting my opinions as facts, I'm just saying it same as you, I think Tom can win? Yeah. But most likely? No, I think Alex wins. You can cite the odds all you want, but I'm the one bringing data, statistic and proven skill set, quotes said directly from Tom Aspinall... If you think that's "nothing", then you aren't looking at the bigger picture. Like I said believe whatever you want, but I'm confident Alex will win as very likely just as you are in Tom. What's your problem with my belief? We are going to find out who was right anyways, so you if you are so confident, great, you don't need to show insecurity by acting like "I'm treating my opinions as facts" lol. I'm showing the same confidence you are. So...?

 

[mkess101]

Mkess, saying “there’s nothing to refute” while skipping over the 90% of points I’ve laid out reads less like a knockout blow and more like stepping out of the exchange... Someone who doesn't have much to add, is what you're showing basically... I’m not asking you to take someone’s word as gospel, I’m pointing to measurable things — strike‑accuracy %, TDD stats, actual fight‑night weights (Pereira showed to be incredible while weighing ~230 lbs vs Jiri and Khalil btw and Khalil recently said he weighs around 225/230 on nights day in Joe's podcast, so same weight basically) — and framing them within the fighter’s resume. This isn’t “so‑and‑so said it, therefore it’s fact”... it’s Poatan stuffing 8 out of 9 shots in his first LHW fight showing big against Jan Blachowicz, who could take Izzy down way easier... Ankalaev who's way better at wrestling than Jan and than Tom, going 0/12 on clean wrestling entries against him while Pereira wasn't at his best... A ~230 lbs Khalil who's quicker than Tom (not as powerful but he's also very powerful and quicker than Tom, with better striking) being stopped by the calf kick that Tom repeatedly eats with a compromised knee. Those are data points, not blind faith.

To be clear, I’m not claiming Pereira is a guaranteed winner; I lean his way because when weighing up all of the above, I see it about 60/40 in his favour. You yourself concede Tom would be favoured by the oddsmakers. My opinion is that the gap isn’t nearly as wide as people assume, because Poatan’s fight IQ, proven skills vs 6 champions and his skill set negate much of the not so significant size edge when applied at the right range. I'm saying there's more to the equation than "Tom is ~ 10 lbs heavier therefore he wins based off KO'ing HWs who were not even top 1 of a weak HW era that pales in comparison to LHWs"...

Regarding the kickboxing, look beyond a simple “Glory fight list.” Pereira fought in open‑weight tournaments on the regional scene as well (WGP, Jungle Fight) before the UFC, knocking out men listed around 230 lbs... Even in Glory, “light heavyweight” tops out at 95kg but not only do they hydrate with estimations implying fighting against fighters like Thomas Powell whom weighed ~240lbs, but there were open weight contests where he faced larger opponents around the 240 or 250 mark (just look at his whole fights in kickboxing and his opponents in open weight fights, as well as Glory's estimation of fighters during fight night post hydration, which you can check when typing Glory post weight rehydration, opponents like Anthem, etc, who himself is at Pereira's level while he fights at ~240 lbs and was set to face Ricco, the HW Glory kickboxer champion)... The fact you haven’t seen them doesn’t mean they didn’t happen... it just means digging deeper into the records might be worthwhile if you want to act as if you have the "answer which is obvious " when you constantly show you do not...

At the end of the day, yes, weight matters, but Pereira in heavy (where did you take the notion he wasn't as good as 244 lbs? He's as lean and with barely any fat mass and drills at the same speed as seen in his footages, heck he can maintain better stamina at this weight since he's naturally 240 lbs) only if the game plan makes it matter. Tom relies on explosive entries to leverage his mass... Pereira is very big and can very likely neutralize those bursts with stance framing, calf kicks, and lateral movement (things Pereira has already used effectively against 240/250, faster kickboxers who are way better than Tom in the stand up) and the supposed “stone‑cold truth” starts to crack... I’m not asking you to flip your stance dude, you’re entitled to your view. But to say there’s nothing to respond to while leaving most of the technical substance unaddressed only strengthens my own confidence. When this fight happens, we’ll find out whose read was closer to rea
lity.

Tom said he knows Pereira wants to go to HW and said that "I've a lot of respect for Alex. I will fight Gane and then if things go right I think Alex Pereira is inevitable. And that's gonna be one of the toughest challenges in my career. I'm in. Like I've said, I think Alex Pereira is one of the most dangerous guys to ever compete in the UFC... I want to be 100% ready because if I lose, I won't feel bad... No, it's obviously gonna suck, not gonna lie, but if I lose, I want to have given 100% of what I could. I want for people to see that I did my best. The fear of losing is real, but if that happens I want to know I left it all there" — interview with UK Journalist Adam who asked him "a fight that is most interesting and the biggest one is vs Alex Pereira, he has called you... That'd be the biggest fight you could have without Jon Jones"... Then Tom said that he will face Gane and that he wants to be at his best, saying he wants to go there and have fun vs the most dangerous guy (which he said Alex Pereira) and said if he loses, then he wants to have given his best...

Those are Tom's own words... You say I'm posting my opinions as facts, I'm just saying it same as you, I think Tom can win? Yeah. But most likely? No, I think Alex wins. You can cite the odds all you want, but I'm the one bringing data, statistic and proven skill set, quotes said directly from Tom Aspinall... If you think that's "nothing", then you aren't looking at the bigger picture. Like I said believe whatever you want, but I'm confident Alex will win as very likely just as you are in Tom. What's your problem with my belief? We are going to find out who was right anyways, so you if you are so confident, great, you don't need to show insecurity by acting like "I'm treating my opinions as facts" lol. I'm showing the same confidence you are. So...?

Bro, you're bringing random stats from different divisions. Data analysis etc has a place in these discussions but it's one small piece of a much bigger picture.

And for example Tom's quote-- tell me SPECIFICALLY what exactly you think that means. Is it a language barrier thing a little? What he said about Alex is respectful but sure as hell says NOTHING about the fight itself. So why lean on it. I'm not gonna adress every part of posts that long my man. And like you're using random "estimations" about what guys rehydrate to in kickboxing...how can those be proven? That's not data, it's some random estimates.

Like I said, I'm not addressing every aspect of a post that long. Choose to talk about the parts I do adress, or don't. I won't be mad either way, buddy.

 

[Luffy]

Bro, you're bringing random stats from different divisions. Data analysis etc has a place in these discussions but it's one small piece of a much bigger picture.

And for example Tom's quote-- tell me SPECIFICALLY what exactly you think that means. Is it a language barrier thing a little? What he said about Alex is respectful but sure as hell says NOTHING about the fight itself. So why lean on it. I'm not gonna adress every part of posts that long my man. And like you're using random "estimations" about what guys rehydrate to in kickboxing...how can those be proven? That's not data, it's some random estimates.

Like I said, I'm not addressing every aspect of a post that long. Choose to talk about the parts I do adress, or don't. I won't be mad either way, buddy.

Those aren't random stats. This division is harder than HW because the skill set is better. That's why it's way easier to have >70% accuracy in HW than in LHW or MW... Even if you pick on great strikers like Topuria, you can have HWs with better accuracy. That means their striking is better? No, that means the opposition is easier. It's not for nothing that Alex Pereira striking accuracy being >60% is top 3 of all time for someone from previously MW and now LHW... Because the accuracy isn't expected to be that big in those divisions.

That means he sees Alex Pereira as like he said, the most dangerous fighter right now in the UFC or at least, tied up to JJ. When asked which match would be harder, JJ or Alex, he said "I'm not disrespecting JJ like ppl think, his skills are an all time great. But I think Alex may be one of the most dangerous guys to ever fight in the UFC, I think it's tough to say honestly. I think Jon Jones preferred to fight Alex Pereira not because he's an easy match, he's as hard of a match as anyone can be. He likely thinks that the data he has on Alex would make it a little bit easier than if he fought me, as JJ loves to study tapes" ...

... Recently he said "well, I think Alex weighing 244 lbs is natural. Like, that's his best weight I guess. I mean, I'm the easiest guy to fight. And we both have our next fights, and yes, I've never turned down a fight, so maybe it will happen this years yet... And I know how powerful he is, his grappling seems to be evolving. I have 4 more fights. I definitely see my career as closer to the end now, I won't stick for much more due to cognitive decline, I'm not like some guys who act like gladiators, and will push it until near 40, I'm definitely close to the end of my career. I am open about fearing opponents, for me it's not natural to be facing another guy when some of us may be unconscious in front of a crowd, I'm just trying to enjoy the process and not think about whether I win or lose. If I'm enjoying there then that's good. I rather have fights in closed spaces because if I get my ass kicked, then there'd be only 10 people watching... Instead of thousands of people. So psychologically that's better for me. My fight with Curtis was already really bad, I was shaking when wrapping my hands because I was fighting in England. So having my hands wrapped knowing I could lose is a fear that never leaves the cage. And with each fight, the fear gets worse and worse"

— Diary of a CEO video and They Lie to You in the UFC video

Because I looked into Glory's articles... In one of their own training articles, Glory admits fighters can drop “mostly water” and lose ~10% of their wirght in the last week, then rehydrate after the weigh‑in to “put your weight back on in a quick but safe manner”. There's also a research from Muay Thai and MMA shows that contest winners regained ~9% of their body mass between the weigh‑in and the fight, more than losers. A welterweight from Glory who hits 170 lb at the weigh‑in can be 190 lb by fight time. That’s a 20 swing within 24 hours... It was said by a former welterweight champion from Glory (Nieky Holzken) that he normally walks around at 182 but once had to cut ~ 22 lbs for a fight... he said he made weight but felt dizzy and moved up a weight class afterward. That’s a massive cut that practically guarantees he was heavier on fight night...

Heck, at Glory 14, the HW legend CroCop weighed ~ 243 lbs, while other HW Remy Bonjasky was ~240 lbs... And those numbers are before rehydration, meaning they likely stepped into the ring even heavier. Alex Pereira made middleweight at 187 lbs, so moving up to LHW in Glory meant facing opponents who were cutting to the 209 lbs limit and as the article said, the weight gain can and is a regular thing for long time Glory fighters, to gain ~10% of that during the fight night... Which means ~230 lbs.

Considering Khalil Rountree and Ankalaev said their natural weight ranges in the ~230/ 235 lbs and that's their fighting weight (Khalil told that in the Joe podcast) they are big LHWs... Alex is ~ 240 lbs and even when cutting down on UFC and then fighting ~230 lbs he'd do just as well as opponents in LHW who admit their weight also range in that realm (Jan too, when he fought in California has his weight weighed at 232 lbs)... Heck, Khalil had said he would fight before closer to 250 but needed to adapt as he said he wanted to fight as a LHW (he destroyed a fighter from HW in the only time he fought a HW tho)...

So considering Alex weighs ~ 240 or more (he's lean at 243 lbs, no fat mass, no nothing ) would be worse when that's his natural weight, you're wrong. That's increase his stamina due to no weight cut, his power in calf kicks, punches (the record in UFC btw)... And even when suffering from an illness that causes dehydration which is why his frame was also lighter vs Ank, he could stop TDs from a better wrestler than Tom... How do you think he'd do fighting someone whose TD isn't as good as Ankalalev's while weighing his optimal, lean, 243 lbs weight, fresh, bringing skill sets that HWs haven't faced ? Calf kicks quickly hampers bounciness, mobility... His TDD isn't a problem when he can do well vs Ankalaev in that... And kicks like he does, like front kicks, calf-kicks, those sap energy quickly specially in heavier guys who depend on quick movements, thus spend stamina quicker... Tom was already breathing more heavily when in the second round vs Arlovski... He needed a desperate far away shoot TD. Vs an elite kicker that can redden his leg, those quick bursts would be predictable, Tom's own striking are a lot dependant on speed... He has a wrestling and speed advantage. Alex has what it takes to stuff his TDD as he did vs Ankalaev but more easily, better stamina, experience in deep waters, better technical striking exploring opponents who tries to advance in flurries like Tom, better kicking game to damage mobility, and his mentality is that of someone who projects many more fights, unlike Tom...

 

[Prince Nephilim]

UFC wouldn’t risk destroying two stars that could potentially make more stars out of others in their respective divisions.

 

[Cecil Peeples]

Alex is no match for tom

 

[mkess101]

Those aren't random stats. This division is harder than HW because the skill set is better. That's why it's way easier to have >70% accuracy in HW than in LHW or MW... Even if you pick on great strikers like Topuria, you can have HWs with better accuracy. That means their striking is better? No, that means the opposition is easier. It's not for nothing that Alex Pereira striking accuracy being >60% is top 3 of all time for someone from previously MW and now LHW... Because the accuracy isn't expected to be that big in those divisions.

That means he sees Alex Pereira as like he said, the most dangerous fighter right now in the UFC or at least, tied up to JJ. When asked which match would be harder, JJ or Alex, he said "I'm not disrespecting JJ like ppl think, his skills are an all time great. But I think Alex may be one of the most dangerous guys to ever fight in the UFC, I think it's tough to say honestly. I think Jon Jones preferred to fight Alex Pereira not because he's an easy match, he's as hard of a match as anyone can be. He likely thinks that the data he has on Alex would make it a little bit easier than if he fought me, as JJ loves to study tapes" ...

... Recently he said "well, I think Alex weighing 244 lbs is natural. Like, that's his best weight I guess. I mean, I'm the easiest guy to fight. And we both have our next fights, and yes, I've never turned down a fight, so maybe it will happen this years yet... And I know how powerful he is, his grappling seems to be evolving. I have 4 more fights. I definitely see my career as closer to the end now, I won't stick for much more due to cognitive decline, I'm not like some guys who act like gladiators, and will push it until near 40, I'm definitely close to the end of my career. I am open about fearing opponents, for me it's not natural to be facing another guy when some of us may be unconscious in front of a crowd, I'm just trying to enjoy the process and not think about whether I win or lose. If I'm enjoying there then that's good. I rather have fights in closed spaces because if I get my ass kicked, then there'd be only 10 people watching... Instead of thousands of people. So psychologically that's better for me. My fight with Curtis was already really bad, I was shaking when wrapping my hands because I was fighting in England. So having my hands wrapped knowing I could lose is a fear that never leaves the cage. And with each fight, the fear gets worse and worse"

— Diary of a CEO video and They Lie to You in the UFC video

Because I looked into Glory's articles... In one of their own training articles, Glory admits fighters can drop “mostly water” and lose ~10% of their wirght in the last week, then rehydrate after the weigh‑in to “put your weight back on in a quick but safe manner”. There's also a research from Muay Thai and MMA shows that contest winners regained ~9% of their body mass between the weigh‑in and the fight, more than losers. A welterweight from Glory who hits 170 lb at the weigh‑in can be 190 lb by fight time. That’s a 20 swing within 24 hours... It was said by a former welterweight champion from Glory (Nieky Holzken) that he normally walks around at 182 but once had to cut ~ 22 lbs for a fight... he said he made weight but felt dizzy and moved up a weight class afterward. That’s a massive cut that practically guarantees he was heavier on fight night...

Heck, at Glory 14, the HW legend CroCop weighed ~ 243 lbs, while other HW Remy Bonjasky was ~240 lbs... And those numbers are before rehydration, meaning they likely stepped into the ring even heavier. Alex Pereira made middleweight at 187 lbs, so moving up to LHW in Glory meant facing opponents who were cutting to the 209 lbs limit and as the article said, the weight gain can and is a regular thing for long time Glory fighters, to gain ~10% of that during the fight night... Which means ~230 lbs.

Considering Khalil Rountree and Ankalaev said their natural weight ranges in the ~230/ 235 lbs and that's their fighting weight (Khalil told that in the Joe podcast) they are big LHWs... Alex is ~ 240 lbs and even when cutting down on UFC and then fighting ~230 lbs he'd do just as well as opponents in LHW who admit their weight also range in that realm (Jan too, when he fought in California has his weight weighed at 232 lbs)... Heck, Khalil had said he would fight before closer to 250 but needed to adapt as he said he wanted to fight as a LHW (he destroyed a fighter from HW in the only time he fought a HW tho)...

So considering Alex weighs ~ 240 or more (he's lean at 243 lbs, no fat mass, no nothing ) would be worse when that's his natural weight, you're wrong. That's increase his stamina due to no weight cut, his power in calf kicks, punches (the record in UFC btw)... And even when suffering from an illness that causes dehydration which is why his frame was also lighter vs Ank, he could stop TDs from a better wrestler than Tom... How do you think he'd do fighting someone whose TD isn't as good as Ankalalev's while weighing his optimal, lean, 243 lbs weight, fresh, bringing skill sets that HWs haven't faced ? Calf kicks quickly hampers bounciness, mobility... His TDD isn't a problem when he can do well vs Ankalaev in that... And kicks like he does, like front kicks, calf-kicks, those sap energy quickly specially in heavier guys who depend on quick movements, thus spend stamina quicker... Tom was already breathing more heavily when in the second round vs Arlovski... He needed a desperate far away shoot TD. Vs an elite kicker that can redden his leg, those quick bursts would be predictable, Tom's own striking are a lot dependant on speed... He has a wrestling and speed advantage. Alex has what it takes to stuff his TDD as he did vs Ankalaev but more easily, better stamina, experience in deep waters, better technical striking exploring opponents who tries to advance in flurries like Tom, better kicking game to damage mobility, and his mentality is that of someone who projects many more fights, unlike Tom...

Again, can you post one quote from Tom that would state anything about him NOT WINNING vs Alex. You keep posting quotes from him. He was super nervous in England vs Blaydes. Shaking even. Okay? How did it turn out for Tom?

No matter how many times I tell you to stop making assertions and expecting me to accept them, no. You can say Alex has better cardio for example, but that's just guessing. I'm not accepting that at face value. Alex has fought 5 rounds and looked fine, we have no idea about Tom. Maybe Alex has better cardio, but we can't know. You have no clue if he can stop Tom's TD's. Ank is a good amount smaller than Tom, he just is. He's also slower. When Tom does shoot, he's fast as hell in how he explodes into it. Like when he took Volkov down he timed it and just exploded into it. Alex isn't stopping that. It's too much mass moving too quickly.

 

[Luffy]

Again, can you post one quote from Tom that would state anything about him NOT WINNING vs Alex. You keep posting quotes from him. He was super nervous in England vs Blaydes. Shaking even. Okay? How did it turn out for Tom?

No matter how many times I tell you to stop making assertions and expecting me to accept them, no. You can say Alex has better cardio for example, but that's just guessing. I'm not accepting that at face value. Alex has fought 5 rounds and looked fine, we have no idea about Tom. Maybe Alex has better cardio, but we can't know. You have no clue if he can stop Tom's TD's. Ank is a good amount smaller than Tom, he just is. He's also slower. When Tom does shoot, he's fast as hell in how he explodes into it. Like when he took Volkov down he timed it and just exploded into it. Alex isn't stopping that. It's too much mass moving too quickly.

I'm saying quoting that since you say "JJ is afraid to face Tom and be defeated in front of everyone" while Tom is the one who flat out says he's afraid to lose in front of thousands of ppl and would rather lose off camera. What you project onto other fighters is what Tom shows himself.

He didn't say he'd lose to Alex. But he never said it'd be a foregone conclusion. In fact, he said it'd be more dangerous than JJ... If he were truly sure he could win, he would have called Alex Pereira instead of saying "well, if I were Alex, I would rematch Ankalaev firstly. I'm just saying if I were him"... Facing Gane when Gane didn't even mention Tom instead of Alex Pereira who called Tom openly, is weird because

A) Gane is an easier fight and was defeated by JJ... JJ and Alex haven't faced each other yet that we know of, so... Fighting Alex Pereira in case he got the win would skyrocket his name way more than beating Gane. As well as bring more $ PPV money. Dana said Alex wanted the fight and that the UFC called both guys. Alex Pereira said "I've mentioned it sometimes but firstly he said he was interested, then later he didn't want to... But for me, whether it's Jon Jones or Aspinall, it doesn't matter, I'm getting better every fight and whoever has the belt there, it's a good fight for me, I'm gonna be well prepared, refreshed, chama!"

B) Tom had said last year, even before Alex had become even more of a superstar by defeating Jiri the second time and then Khalil, that "let's do a tournament, me vs Alex and Jon Jones vs Stipe, winners face each other" ... After Alex beat Rountree, he went quiet and is also pushing for a rematch vs Ankalaev before he and Alex. Alex had the option to go to HW win or lose vs Ankalaev. Dana had said instant rematch, but then he also said "if Alex wants to fave Tom if the JJ fight isn't done, that's his choice"... Tom didn't want to face Alex right now... Alex was ready.

That speaks to their level of confidence in fighting each other. Alex is the embodiment of facing anyone.

It's not a guess... Tom has never been in a 5 rounds fight, and the only time he has been past the first round in the UFC, he was showing signs of breathing harder vs an older opponent... Alex has fought 3 five rounds fight vs elite opponents and even with Norovirus, he was the one pushing the pace vs Ankalaev in the 5th round, and Ankalaev is a cardio machine, he doesn't tire out. Yet he seemed to be retreating in the 5th round and was breathing heavily when the fight ended in a very competitive fight. It's as valid as you saying Tom has better ground game than Alex.

Ank is smaller but he has a background in sambo ever since he was a kid and was a part of world sambo tournaments... Tom is a jiu jitsu Black belt with no wrestling credentials like Tom. For instance, in one of his later videos, Tom called Craig Jones to help him to improve his wrestling... He was asking for instructions on how to better defend takedowns so he could prepare against fighters with wrestling background. So yes, Ankalaev has better wrestling than Tom because Tom's focus isn't on wrestling, but on ground defense. It doesn't he can't do takedowns, but he doesn't have a strong wrestling background, as he himself admitted, saying he's more like Charles Oliveira, better to defend TDs and work on submissions.

So I'm not saying it's a fact, but I think it's very likely that if Alex stopped TDs from Ankalaev who weighs ~230 lbs, same as Alex on fight night, then you have no basis to say someone whose TDs aren't as good as Ankalaev's would takedown an Alex while fresh, with better stamina and fighting at a natural, lean, muscular 244 lbs frame... The side difference isn't big, it's less than 10 lbs, so again, I'm not forcing you to agree with me, believe whatever you think makes more sense. I stand by what I said tho, Alex got this.

 

[mkess101]

I'm saying quoting that since you say "JJ is afraid to face Tom and be defeated in front of everyone" while Tom is the one who flat out says he's afraid to lose in front of thousands of ppl and would rather lose off camera. What you project onto other fighters is what Tom shows himself.

He didn't say he'd lose to Alex. But he never said it'd be a foregone conclusion. In fact, he said it'd be more dangerous than JJ... If he were truly sure he could win, he would have called Alex Pereira instead of saying "well, if I were Alex, I would rematch Ankalaev firstly. I'm just saying if I were him"... Facing Gane when Gane didn't even mention Tom instead of Alex Pereira who called Tom openly, is weird because

A) Gane is an easier fight and was defeated by JJ... JJ and Alex haven't faced each other yet that we know of, so... Fighting Alex Pereira in case he got the win would skyrocket his name way more than beating Gane. As well as bring more $ PPV money. Dana said Alex wanted the fight and that the UFC called both guys. Alex Pereira said "I've mentioned it sometimes but firstly he said he was interested, then later he didn't want to... But for me, whether it's Jon Jones or Aspinall, it doesn't matter, I'm getting better every fight and whoever has the belt there, it's a good fight for me, I'm gonna be well prepared, refreshed, chama!"

B) Tom had said last year, even before Alex had become even more of a superstar by defeating Jiri the second time and then Khalil, that "let's do a tournament, me vs Alex and Jon Jones vs Stipe, winners face each other" ... After Alex beat Rountree, he went quiet and is also pushing for a rematch vs Ankalaev before he and Alex. Alex had the option to go to HW win or lose vs Ankalaev. Dana had said instant rematch, but then he also said "if Alex wants to fave Tom if the JJ fight isn't done, that's his choice"... Tom didn't want to face Alex right now... Alex was ready.

That speaks to their level of confidence in fighting each other. Alex is the embodiment of facing anyone.

It's not a guess... Tom has never been in a 5 rounds fight, and the only time he has been past the first round in the UFC, he was showing signs of breathing harder vs an older opponent... Alex has fought 3 five rounds fight vs elite opponents and even with Norovirus, he was the one pushing the pace vs Ankalaev in the 5th round, and Ankalaev is a cardio machine, he doesn't tire out. Yet he seemed to be retreating in the 5th round and was breathing heavily when the fight ended in a very competitive fight. It's as valid as you saying Tom has better ground game than Alex.

Ank is smaller but he has a background in sambo ever since he was a kid and was a part of world sambo tournaments... Tom is a jiu jitsu Black belt with no wrestling credentials like Tom. For instance, in one of his later videos, Tom called Craig Jones to help him to improve his wrestling... He was asking for instructions on how to better defend takedowns so he could prepare against fighters with wrestling background. So yes, Ankalaev has better wrestling than Tom because Tom's focus isn't on wrestling, but on ground defense. It doesn't he can't do takedowns, but he doesn't have a strong wrestling background, as he himself admitted, saying he's more like Charles Oliveira, better to defend TDs and work on submissions.

So I'm not saying it's a fact, but I think it's very likely that if Alex stopped TDs from Ankalaev who weighs ~230 lbs, same as Alex on fight night, then you have no basis to say someone whose TDs aren't as good as Ankalaev's would takedown an Alex while fresh, with better stamina and fighting at a natural, lean, muscular 244 lbs frame... The side difference isn't big, it's less than 10 lbs, so again, I'm not forcing you to agree with me, believe whatever you think makes more sense. I stand by what I said tho, Alex got this.

"Ank has better takedowns". Based on...? What's Aspinall's TD % in the UFC?

This is why I can't bother to reply to all this. You fill posts with comments like that and expect me to accept them. Nope.

The stamina IS a guess. Aspinall finished the fight in question. DDP looks to be breathing heavy after 2 rounds every time. But still pushes on fine. You have zero way of knowing how Tom would be late in a fight. None.

I point out these inaccuracies and you ignore it and push ahead full bore and just add more of them. It becomes a redundant thing where you just keep doing the same thing. A bit pointless.

And maybe it's because you aren't as good with English (not talking shit, maybe your 2nd language?)...you post these quotes and don't seem to understand what they actually mean.

 

[Luffy]

"Ank has better takedowns". Based on...? What's Aspinall's TD % in the UFC?

This is why I can't bother to reply to all this. You fill posts with comments like that and expect me to accept them. Nope.

The stamina IS a guess. Aspinall finished the fight in question. DDP looks to be breathing heavy after 2 rounds every time. But still pushes on fine. You have zero way of knowing how Tom would be late in a fight. None.

I point out these inaccuracies and you ignore it and push ahead full bore and just add more of them. It becomes a redundant thing where you just keep doing the same thing. A bit pointless.

And maybe it's because you aren't as good with English (not talking shit, maybe your 2nd language?)...you post these quotes and don't seem to understand what they actually mean.

Again, you’re shifting the goalpost. You ask “based on what?” right after I just spent an entire post explaining exactly what. I said Ankalaev has better takedown setups based on his sambo background, wrestling-first entries, control chaining, and years of applying it at a high level. He’s been a dominant clinch/grappling threat whenever his striking isn't doing the job and he can apply it well enough in later rounds like vs Jan with his leg toasted... Tom is explosive, yes, but he’s not a control wrestler as he admitted himself that he had to call in Craig Jones to sharpen his grappling defense. That’s Tom himself saying that. So no, that’s not me guessing, it’s literally direct evidence, same way you're trying to bring stats.

As for Tom’s UFC takedown %? It’s 100%. You think that helps your case? That stat is bloated by taking down Arlovski, Spivac, and Volkov — never elite sprawlers... It's like saying Tom is better than Islam since Islam doesn't have 100% TD accuracy... Except Islam tried way more vs way more opponents who had better TDD? Same for Ank. Meanwhile, Pereira showed a noticeable improvement when going up in weight by stuffing TDs from the same Jan who ragdolled Izzy, then neutralized Ankalaev’s wrestling while compromised. That’s actual resistance-tested footage and you have no counter to that... None. You keep saying “we don’t know about Tom late in fights”... yes, that’s the whole point. You're talking like it's a coin flip, but that unknowability should lower confidence, not inflate it. When someone has zero data on late rounds and cardio, that's not neutral, that’s a question mark. Actually, like I've said, he was already breathing heavily in the second round vs Arlovski, showing he burns energy very quickly to maintain that pace. So if anything, we have evidence his cardio isn't great.

And on the quotes? You keep pretending I don’t understand what Tom said, but I quoted directly what he said. If the guy says he fears fighting on camera and prefers closed-door matches because of the pressure, and he skips a fight that would bring him the most PPV and prestige, that does say something about how he sees the matchup, even if he never says “I’ll lose.” You can’t have it both ways — quoting when it supports your point, then waving it off when it doesn’t.

If you want to argue that Tom is more well-rounded, half true. You want to say the speed/power combo can overwhelm Pereira? Sure, I’ve already granted that possibility. But the more you try to paint me as the one projecting while you get to skip over 80% of the technical substance of why I'm confident Pereira wins, and say “nah I’m not replying to that, maybe it’s your English”, the more it shows you’re stuck on narrative, not analysis. That’s fine, but call it what it is.

You don’t have to agree, I've shown exactly why I'm confident Alex wins. If you won’t address the content and just keep pivoting to tone or deflection, you're doing nothing but stalling the debate. I'm showing direct evidence for why I'm confident Alex wins. Try to address instead of deflecting, or admit you haven't a proper rebuttal and call it a day.

 

[mkess101]

Again, you’re shifting the goalpost. You ask “based on what?” right after I just spent an entire post explaining exactly what. I said Ankalaev has better takedown setups based on his sambo background, wrestling-first entries, control chaining, and years of applying it at a high level. He’s been a dominant clinch/grappling threat whenever his striking isn't doing the job and he can apply it well enough in later rounds like vs Jan with his leg toasted... Tom is explosive, yes, but he’s not a control wrestler as he admitted himself that he had to call in Craig Jones to sharpen his grappling defense. That’s Tom himself saying that. So no, that’s not me guessing, it’s literally direct evidence, same way you're trying to bring stats.

As for Tom’s UFC takedown %? It’s 100%. You think that helps your case? That stat is bloated by taking down Arlovski, Spivac, and Volkov — never elite sprawlers... It's like saying Tom is better than Islam since Islam doesn't have 100% TD accuracy... Except Islam tried way more vs way more opponents who had better TDD? Same for Ank. Meanwhile, Pereira showed a noticeable improvement when going up in weight by stuffing TDs from the same Jan who ragdolled Izzy, then neutralized Ankalaev’s wrestling while compromised. That’s actual resistance-tested footage and you have no counter to that... None. You keep saying “we don’t know about Tom late in fights”... yes, that’s the whole point. You're talking like it's a coin flip, but that unknowability should lower confidence, not inflate it. When someone has zero data on late rounds and cardio, that's not neutral, that’s a question mark. Actually, like I've said, he was already breathing heavily in the second round vs Arlovski, showing he burns energy very quickly to maintain that pace. So if anything, we have evidence his cardio isn't great.

And on the quotes? You keep pretending I don’t understand what Tom said, but I quoted directly what he said. If the guy says he fears fighting on camera and prefers closed-door matches because of the pressure, and he skips a fight that would bring him the most PPV and prestige, that does say something about how he sees the matchup, even if he never says “I’ll lose.” You can’t have it both ways — quoting when it supports your point, then waving it off when it doesn’t.

If you want to argue that Tom is more well-rounded, half true. You want to say the speed/power combo can overwhelm Pereira? Sure, I’ve already granted that possibility. But the more you try to paint me as the one projecting while you get to skip over 80% of the technical substance of why I'm confident Pereira wins, and say “nah I’m not replying to that, maybe it’s your English”, the more it shows you’re stuck on narrative, not analysis. That’s fine, but call it what it is.

You don’t have to agree, I've shown exactly why I'm confident Alex wins. If you won’t address the content and just keep pivoting to tone or deflection, you're doing nothing but stalling the debate. I'm showing direct evidence for why I'm confident Alex wins. Try to address instead of deflecting, or admit you haven't a proper rebuttal and call it a day.

Luffy, this is EXACTLY what I'm talking about. "Tom says he's not a control wrestler so brings in Craig Jones". Dude, fighters bring in different coaches and training partners ALL THE TIME because they say they wanna shore up a certain part of their game. You take these quotes and run with them and think they mean something they don't. And then say "Look! Look what he said!" But it never means what your interpretation thinks it does. No, you REALLY don't understand what's being said. Skips what fight? A fight vs Alex? Point out where in that quote anywhere that says it was ever offered. You can't. His answer about the hypothetical said NOTHING about him "skipping" a fight. In fact it sounds like he'd be down to fight Alex for sure. Do you not understand? Or are you just trying to purposefully interject clear lies into what he said?

Then you try to use stats but when I give one, your answer is "But but but that doesn't count because Luffy's subjective opinion is that those guys he took down can't sprawl blah blah blah." You don't get to have it both ways, bucko.

 

[Luffy]

Luffy, this is EXACTLY what I'm talking about. "Tom says he's not a control wrestler so brings in Craig Jones". Dude, fighters bring in different coaches and training partners ALL THE TIME because they say they wanna shore up a certain part of their game. You take these quotes and run with them and think they mean something they don't. And then say "Look! Look what he said!" But it never means what your interpretation thinks it does. No, you REALLY don't understand what's being said. Skips what fight? A fight vs Alex? Point out where in that quote anywhere that says it was ever offered. You can't. His answer about the hypothetical said NOTHING about him "skipping" a fight. In fact it sounds like he'd be down to fight Alex for sure. Do you not understand? Or are you just trying to purposefully interject clear lies into what he said?

Then you try to use stats but when I give one, your answer is "But but but that doesn't count because Luffy's subjective opinion is that those guys he took down can't sprawl blah blah blah." You don't get to have it both ways, bucko.

You’re saying I don’t get to “have it both ways” but that’s exactly what you’re doing.

You (or me) pull the stat for Tom — 100% takedown accuracy — and expect it to hold absolute value. I simply contextualized it, because that’s what stats require: context. If all his takedowns were on guys with historically weak TDD and only 3 attempts, and no active guard threats, how is that not relevant? You’re acting like it’s heresy to note that Spivac, Volkov and Arlovski aren’t exactly scrambling machines, with Gane while injured wrestling evenly with Volkov... That’s not "subjective" it’s common analytical practice. Meanwhile, you ignore that Pereira stuffed 8 of 9 attempts from a guy who out wrestled Izzy on short notice while Izzy had out wrestled Pereira months ago (showing improvements quickly from Pereira against a better and heavier wrestler than the one who out wrestled him)... and then he stuffed the most TDs attempts from Ankalaev, who out wrestled Jan easily even with a fucked up leg... And Alex did that while fighting with Norovirus, showing even further grappling improvements since the Jan fight, a big one actually... That’s what we call quality of resistance... Not a small sample vs HWs who aren't known for good TD defense which in itself is already poor in HW nowadays...

And yeah, fighters bring in coaches all the time. But context matters there too. Bringing in Craig Jones isn’t just “shoring up” something... it’s Tom explicitly saying on record that he had to add layers to his grappling. Not jiu jitsu game, but wrestling, grappling as a whole. You can pretend that’s irrelevant, but when it comes from Tom himself, you're the one pretending he’s speaking in riddles. It's like imagining you'd ever see Ankalev bringing Craig Jones to help him and teach him ways to improve his wrestling to face Jon Jones... Not.

You keep pivoting to “that’s not what the quote says” but you’re dodging what I actually said. I never claimed the UFC officially offered him the Pereira fight, but it's true that the UFC with Dana and Hunter stated that Pereira could move to HW if he wanted too, if JJ vs Tom ended up not coming to an agreement soon... Dana said he had no problems with it and that Pereira could fight for the belt in HW. He said that before the Ankalaev fight, even, all while noticing he dislikes when fighters vacate the belt when moving up... Tom was asked three times about it by 3 different journalists (Adams from UK, Ariel Helwani and another from ESPN, because that's a fight that the industry is interested in) and gave a hesitant, pressure-averse answer, then name-dropped the Ankalaev rematch instead of building up the most meaningful fight he could have first and foremost, with less stakes and higher reward... Even though Alex isn't forced to the rematch, Alex simply is seeing who wants to fight, and Ankalev does... You think I’m twisting things? The guy literally said he hates fighting under bright lights and prefers doing it behind closed doors, and in an interview asking about Alex and JJ. That is not nothing. You’re the one trying to sanitize that.

And on a side note, accusing me of “interjecting lies” just because I interpret quotes differently than you? Maybe you lack inference abilities, which is on you. You’ve made your own share of interpretations about what fighters really mean too... We all do. But I don’t need to lie, I’m building a probabilistic case using everything on the table. You just don’t like the direction it’s pointing.

I’m not the one dismissing every uncomfortable point with “you just don’t understand”... I’m engaging all your points. If that’s making you defensive, maybe ask yourself why.

 

[mkess101]

You’re saying I don’t get to “have it both ways” but that’s exactly what you’re doing.

You (or me) pull the stat for Tom — 100% takedown accuracy — and expect it to hold absolute value. I simply contextualized it, because that’s what stats require: context. If all his takedowns were on guys with historically weak TDD and only 3 attempts, and no active guard threats, how is that not relevant? You’re acting like it’s heresy to note that Spivac, Volkov and Arlovski aren’t exactly scrambling machines, with Gane while injured wrestling evenly with Volkov... That’s not "subjective" it’s common analytical practice. Meanwhile, you ignore that Pereira stuffed 8 of 9 attempts from a guy who out wrestled Izzy on short notice while Izzy had out wrestled Pereira months ago (showing improvements quickly from Pereira against a better and heavier wrestler than the one who out wrestled him)... and then he stuffed the most TDs attempts from Ankalaev, who out wrestled Jan easily even with a fucked up leg... And Alex did that while fighting with Norovirus, showing even further grappling improvements since the Jan fight, a big one actually... That’s what we call quality of resistance... Not a small sample vs HWs who aren't known for good TD defense which in itself is already poor in HW nowadays...

And yeah, fighters bring in coaches all the time. But context matters there too. Bringing in Craig Jones isn’t just “shoring up” something... it’s Tom explicitly saying on record that he had to add layers to his grappling. Not jiu jitsu game, but wrestling, grappling as a whole. You can pretend that’s irrelevant, but when it comes from Tom himself, you're the one pretending he’s speaking in riddles. It's like imagining you'd ever see Ankalev bringing Craig Jones to help him and teach him ways to improve his wrestling to face Jon Jones... Not.

You keep pivoting to “that’s not what the quote says” but you’re dodging what I actually said. I never claimed the UFC officially offered him the Pereira fight, but it's true that the UFC with Dana and Hunter stated that Pereira could move to HW if he wanted too, if JJ vs Tom ended up not coming to an agreement soon... Dana said he had no problems with it and that Pereira could fight for the belt in HW. He said that before the Ankalaev fight, even, all while noticing he dislikes when fighters vacate the belt when moving up... Tom was asked three times about it by 3 different journalists (Adams from UK, Ariel Helwani and another from ESPN, because that's a fight that the industry is interested in) and gave a hesitant, pressure-averse answer, then name-dropped the Ankalaev rematch instead of building up the most meaningful fight he could have first and foremost, with less stakes and higher reward... Even though Alex isn't forced to the rematch, Alex simply is seeing who wants to fight, and Ankalev does... You think I’m twisting things? The guy literally said he hates fighting under bright lights and prefers doing it behind closed doors, and in an interview asking about Alex and JJ. That is not nothing. You’re the one trying to sanitize that.

And on a side note, accusing me of “interjecting lies” just because I interpret quotes differently than you? Maybe you lack inference abilities, which is on you. You’ve made your own share of interpretations about what fighters really mean too... We all do. But I don’t need to lie, I’m building a probabilistic case using everything on the table. You just don’t like the direction it’s pointing.

I’m not the one dismissing every uncomfortable point with “you just don’t understand”... I’m engaging all your points. If that’s making you defensive, maybe ask yourself why.

No Luff, I used the stat ONLY because you'd previously tried doing it as some sort of definitive thing. And you only think context applies when it comes back at you in stats. THAT is why you want it both ways. I don't. You don’t get to add context that's just your opinion to my stats and then think your stats hold relevance because you disagree with the context I give them. That's not how it works.

Nobody is defensive, bud. I promise. Your issue is that if someone disagrees with your subjective take, you just pivot and "prove" (and the quotes are the most important part because you don't actually prove anything) it by posting even MORE subjective stuff. "Well a lifetime of sambo means blah blah blah..." When...no, it doesn't necessarily.

And dude...what does Tom hating bright lights and all that have to do with him ACTUALLY PERFORMING IN THE CAGE?? Does it look like he's struggled much lately LMFAO? Wanna know what GSP used to say? Before every fight he'd wish the power in the arena would go out so he wouldn't have to go through with it. Man, that really held back his career and stopped him from winning fights, didn't it!!

As for the Craig Jones thing...you really need to eject. You sound absolutely naive when it comes to training. "Adding layers" to a game means nothing but trying to improve. Jones is a grappler. Tom thinks he's a good grappling coach. Brought him in to improve his grappling. Anything else you're reading into his comments is silly conjecture from you. Fighters (especially good ones) are self critical. Absolutely they'll say stuff like "I thought I was a good wrestler. Then I trained with _______ and learned there are levels and I need to get better." But you cherry pick quotes and then spin them in insane ways.

Aspinall: "I brought in Craig to improve my grappling. I need to add layers. I can be a lot better, and he can help."

Luffy: "So you see what Aspinall means here is that his MMA grappling is levels below Ankalaev so clearly Pereira can stuff Aspinall's TD's since Alex looks so awesome at 243 lbs and if you disagree I want a 375 page thesis on why you disagree that he doesn't look great at that weight and if you don't dissect every word I posted I'll just say you're ignoring all my points."

As for your silly quotes from Aspinall, they literally mean nothing. Reporters asking about it when the Jones fight (bigger fight) was still on the table?? What? And even after, it's stupid conjecture on your part. Tom would be a big betting favorite over Alex. And when Alex loses again to Ankalaev, then what? You'll just switch to "We need big Ank vs Tom!!" And then proceed to spam a million subjective takes into posts and expect people to either agree with those takes or post a novel explaining in detail why they disagree with each one. It's ridiculous.

 

[Luffy]

No Luff, I used the stat ONLY because you'd previously tried doing it as some sort of definitive thing. And you only think context applies when it comes back at you in stats. THAT is why you want it both ways. I don't. You don’t get to add context that's just your opinion to my stats and then think your stats hold relevance because you disagree with the context I give them. That's not how it works.

Nobody is defensive, bud. I promise. Your issue is that if someone disagrees with your subjective take, you just pivot and "prove" (and the quotes are the most important part because you don't actually prove anything) it by posting even MORE subjective stuff. "Well a lifetime of sambo means blah blah blah..." When...no, it doesn't necessarily.

And dude...what does Tom hating bright lights and all that have to do with him ACTUALLY PERFORMING IN THE CAGE?? Does it look like he's struggled much lately LMFAO? Wanna know what GSP used to say? Before every fight he'd wish the power in the arena would go out so he wouldn't have to go through with it. Man, that really held back his career and stopped him from winning fights, didn't it!!

As for the Craig Jones thing...you really need to eject. You sound absolutely naive when it comes to training. "Adding layers" to a game means nothing but trying to improve. Jones is a grappler. Tom thinks he's a good grappling coach. Brought him in to improve his grappling. Anything else you're reading into his comments is silly conjecture from you. Fighters (especially good ones) are self critical. Absolutely they'll say stuff like "I thought I was a good wrestler. Then I trained with _______ and learned there are levels and I need to get better." But you cherry pick quotes and then spin them in insane ways.

Aspinall: "I brought in Craig to improve my grappling. I need to add layers. I can be a lot better, and he can help."

Luffy: "So you see what Aspinall means here is that his MMA grappling is levels below Ankalaev so clearly Pereira can stuff Aspinall's TD's since Alex looks so awesome at 243 lbs and if you disagree I want a 375 page thesis on why you disagree that he doesn't look great at that weight and if you don't dissect every word I posted I'll just say you're ignoring all my points."

As for your silly quotes from Aspinall, they literally mean nothing. Reporters asking about it when the Jones fight (bigger fight) was still on the table?? What? And even after, it's stupid conjecture on your part. Tom would be a big betting favorite over Alex. And when Alex loses again to Ankalaev, then what? You'll just switch to "We need big Ank vs Tom!!" And then proceed to spam a million subjective takes into posts and expect people to either agree with those takes or post a novel explaining in detail why they disagree with each one. It's ridiculous.

You say I'm "dodging stats" yet again — and it makes me laugh because your stat was a tap-im freebie... "100% takedown accuracy". Yes, I contextualized it and that's exactly what stats require. If all, and I mean all, of Tom's takedowns landed against guys with garbage-level takedown defense (think Spivac, Baudot, Arlovski), then yes, your stat is accurate but click bait If you think it predicts success against an elite TDD guy like Pereira. That's not double standard, it's called analytical rigor... Statistics speak louder with context, always, which you miss...

You keep acting like I invented the Craig Jones thing... He's literally on Tom's fucking channel praising his attention to his grappling lmao. It's taken so seriously that EssentiallySports commented fans were scared for Ciryl Gane... This is not unicorn shtick lol it's intentional defensive and offensive evolution for a heavyweight. Yeah bright lights didn't affect performance, ok, but Tom said it in RESPONSE to a QUESTION about facing ALEX PEREIRA... So either you mean nothing when I quote what he literally said, or you believe what he says is irrelevant. Pick one.

You say : "if Alex loses again to Ank, you'll just pivot to big Ank vs Tom"... I adjust as what we see happens. That's a plus, not a down. Claiming that evolving your position is somehow dishonest is not good faith, unless you think blind loyalty that never shifts is a virtue. If Alex has more wins than losses vs those same guys... Cool, I stick. If not, I shift downward. That's how smart posters do, they don't deny reality. But if Alex makes it competitive enough to the point it's very very close or wins, he's guaranteed to fight in HW. That's not me saying it... That's the UFC saying Alex will fight either Gane or Tom... So win or lose, he will fight at HW. Anyways he could of have anyways without the rematch... You can move up a division at will if you don't have a belt. Even more the biggest star of the sort... Duhh

Actually I explicitly said I don't expect you to agree... I said I see it as 60/40 Alex. That's me saying how I believe in what I say, not a guaranteed prophecy... That's nuance. And I explained it in trades, data, angles, you just jump to do mini rants about projection while only picking through the tone, not the content. That's not debate, that's dodge from you. If you want to say Tom has elite TD success against early round opponents, fair, I'll grant that... If you want to ignore how that record might shatter vs a trained Pereira who eats Ankalaev's clean entries while injured and still won the 5th round, well, then you might be surprised and confused when the fight happens...

.., Plus if you feel I'm misinterpreting quotes, then quote it out, explain how it's misinterpreted and add an alternative reading... Ironically that's the same thing you accuse me of doing... At the end, I'm just calling what I think is most likely. You're free to disagree but at least make a point replying to my arguments, "nothing" again is not a criticism, it's skipping the chessboard and sticking to your own narrative. If you can actually challenge the substance then cool, if not, move on.