International BREXIT: Leave/Remain Referendum on June 23 Will Change Europe, No Matter the Outcome.

[Arkain2K]

7:24PM - 'Britain needs Australia points-based immigration system'

Harsimrat Kaur, from Women for Britain, says Britain needs to change its immigration system - and the only way to do that is to vote Leave.

She tells the debate: "Why are we ignoring the rest of the world? We need to have a fair and global response to migration.

"Having something like an Australia points-based system means we control immigration and bring in the skills that we need."

Australian style points system
Australia, Switzerland and Norway have all had higher immigration as a proportion of their total population than the UK since 2011.

The "Australian-based system" is hailed by the Leave campaign as a model of future UK immigration policy in the event of Brexit, who claim that the selective system could boost skilled migration into the UK.

However, figures show that Australia has more immigrants per head than the UK - when the numbers between 2011 and 2015 account for 4.6 per cent of the population, compared to 1.4 per cent level in the UK.

Find out more here.

 

[Arkain2K]

7:34PM - The guests arrive

Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative leader

Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London

Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London

 

[Arkain2K]

7:38PM - A fresh line up for Remain



Remain's line-up is all-new tonight, but the Leave side have opted to revert back to the set-up for last week's ITV debate, with Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom and Gisela Stuart fighting their corner.

Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, and Frances O'Grady, the TUC general secretary, are fighting for Remain.

 

[Arkain2K]

7:40PM - 'There will always be an England'

This van has been going up and down around the Wembley arena ahead of the debate.

 

[Arkain2K]

7:53PM - Commentary: Is this the future of British politics?

James Kirkup offers this insight before the debate begins:

"A thought before we start: are we about to witness the future of British politics, on the same side?

Sadiq Khan is a good bet for Labour leader one day: he has a major powerbase in London and has kept his distance from Jeremy Corbyn. He'd be a strong contender to replace Corbyn after a bad general election loss in 2020.

As for Ruth Davidson, she did something many thought impossible: led the Tories to beat Labour in Scotland, and in so doing denied the SNP the all-out win that might have led to another independence referendum. The Tory who can do that sure has a bright future."

 

[Arkain2K]

8:04PM - 'Take back control and vote leave'

The two sides drew lots to decide who starts the debate. Leave won and Gisela Stuart is summarising their argument:

“Ask yourself just one question, if we were not in the EU today would we join it? If the answer is no then on Thursday vote Leave and take control.”

“The only continent with a growth rate lower than Europe is Antarctica”

“Sometimes voting doesn’t make much difference. On Thursday it really does. You will decide who makes decisions for this country. So take back control and vote Leave.”

 

[Arkain2K]

8:06PM - 'We are stronger, safer and better off in Europe'

Sadiq Khan opens the debate for the Remain side:

“In just two days’ time we will make the most important decision in a generation."

“You and your family will be both better off and safer. Your job will be more secure and your wages will be higher.

"The prices you pay in the shops will be lower and your rights as a worker will be better protected.”

“I urge you to make the positive and patriotic choice and vote to remain.”

 

[Arkain2K]

8:08PM - Tonight's topics

There are three topics tonight - the economy, immigration and Britain's place in the world.

First up is the economy.

The UK's trade with the EU
Trade is a big weapon in the armory of the Remain camp, which argues that EU trade advantages are worth the budget contributions we give to Europe.

For each of the last 15 years, however, Britain has run a trade deficit with the EU - with us importing more from European countries than we export to them. The EU trade deficit was £61.6bn in 2014.

As a proportion of GDP, however, the amount the UK exports to the EU is much higher than the amount the EU exports to the UK - meaning that this trade is very important to the UK economy.

Find out more here.

 

[Arkain2K]

8:12PM - First question: What benefits are there for small business owners to remaining in the EU?

Ruth Davidson admits that some people find the EU frustrating, but she says it is important "we have a seat at the table". She says the Leave campaign hasn't said how many jobs could be lost and how new trade deals would be formed.
Boris Johnson says that the UK received 820,000 vehicles a year from Germany and he says it would be "insane" for the EU to impose tariffs on Britain if it leaves the EU. He says he has been "amazed" at how many British small businesses want to get out of the EU.

Frances O'Grady, the TUC general secretary, says voters need to "listen to the shopfloor because I am here representing workers tonight". She says: "There are lots of small businesses in Britain that have a pretty tough time but many of them are also parts of supply chains, the leave side roll out JCB but that's one company, all the experts are saying the economy would take a big hit if we came out of the EU.

"If you don't believe the experts then listen to the shop floor .... union reps from BMW, Toyata, Ford, Nissan you name it across the manufacturing sector they are saying we cannot afford to take this gamble with our jobs our wages our livelihoods and our rights."

Gisela Stuart says that small business owners do not have the time to "lobby in Brussels", leaving a free-for-all for the big businesses. She says that the Remain side has previously admitted that wages would go up if we vote to leave.

FAQ: Would Brexit be good for Britain's small businesses?


Pros: Small business owners blame the EU for creating excess red tape, especially in areas like food. They believe that leaving the EU would free the UK Government to liberalise many of these regulations.

Once out of the EU, the UK will no longer need to contribute to the EU budget, which could result in tax reductions for domestic businesses.

Britain will be free to negotiate its own trade deals, which Leave campaigners claim could result in better terms.

It may become easier to hire talent from outside the EU, as the rules currently favour European immigrants over those from further afield.

Cons: The cost of trading with the EU could rise, and become much more complex.

Businesses may cut back on their UK investment once it is no longer part of the EU because of the increased risk.

Many small businesses rely on EU workers, and any curbs on immigration could affect their ability to grow and hire talent.

It could take many years to renegotiate trade agreements, causing sales to fall.

Farmers fear the loss of EU farming subsidies would put them out of business, unless the UK could absorb them.

Many small businesses protect their intellectual property through the European Patent Office and a Brexit could require emergency new rules to keep it safe.

 

[Arkain2K]

8:19PM - How British jobs would be affected by Brexit

Ruth Davidson has ripped into the Leave side, asking Boris Johnson: "How many jobs will go Boris? How many jobs?"

Boris hits back saying "we're back to Project Fear", but the Scottish Conservative leaders insists her point is "positive" because it is pointing to the success of the British economy.

How many British jobs rely on EU membership?

Treasury figures released under the last government agree with European Institute research that says 3.4 million current UK jobs are connected to exports to EU countries. Note: these jobs are connected to EU exports; they do not necessarily rely on the EU.

We have proved wrong a claim by Labour Leave leader Alan Johnson that two thirds of manufacturing jobs depend on demand from Europe, but the majority of the jobs dependent on EU exports are in this industry. After that, the finance and hospitality industries are set to be most affected.

However, it's difficult to say how many of these jobs would be at risk. Leave campaigners say Britain would still be able to export extensively from outside the EU, while Remainers say exporters would face restrictive trade barriers.

Find out more here

 

[Arkain2K]

8:21PM - Analysis: Mothers into battle for Leave

"Both Gisela Stuart and Andrea Leadsom for the Leave team have stressed that they are both mums (in Ms Stuart’s case a grandmother too) as they frame their arguments. Interesting how they are reaching out to mothers at home, which is a large part of tonight’s audience. No attempt to the same by the Remain side."

 

[Arkain2K]

8:26PM - Second question: Will Brexit be a slippy slope to weaker employment rights?

Andrea Leadsom argues that the British government has "led the way" when it comes to workers rights, adding "we do not need these unelected, bureaucratic European leaders who none of us can name".

She did, however, make this unfortunate slip-up:



Frances O'Grady says "we too often hear about red tape but what they mean is the vital rights of workers". She says the EU guarantees these rights. For example, if your child is sick, equal rights for agency workers, the working time directive, paid holidays.

Sadiq Khan adds: "What is your plan? How would you make sure the terms of trade with the EU are better than they are now? How do you make sure that jobs won't suffer, how will you make sure small businesses wont suffer, the last time there was a recession hard working people suffered many lost their homes and what's important Boris is you answer their questions, what is your plan?"


8:34PM - Row breaks out on workers rights

Gisela Stuart says she finds it "extraordinary" that it has been claimed Brussels is needed to protect workers' rights in Britain.

She says: "I first joined a trade union 45 years ago when I was an apprentice and I know that strong trade unions and best supported by Labour Government actually protect worker's rights

"I find it extraordinary that I'm being told I can't trust you the voter to get a government in to protect workers rights and that we need Brussels to defend you, the euro is a broken project we are going to pay, no you are going to pay out of your taxes one bailout out of another and the European union does not protect your jobs."

Sadiq Khan hits back: "Everytime we walked through those lobby to vote for worker's rights they've been in the other lobby voting against those rights.

"Priti Patel let the mask slip (on worker's rights). The worst thing for worker's is their bosses business going out of business. Gisela, you should know better."


8:38PM - 'The EU cannot even organise a takeaway curry'
Andrea Leadsom is convinced Britain can create new free trade deals with non-EU nations.

She says: "The truth is that 80% of the world's economy is not in the single market and the free trade deals that Ruth is talking about that the EU has many most of them are not in the single market.

"You do not need to be in the single market we do not need that we are the word's fifth biggest economy. Most economies can agree free trade deals within two years the EU is taking 10 years or never at all, why? Because 28 member states cannot even organise a takeaway curry let alone what they're going to do on free trade with the rest of the world."


8:39PM - Ruth on Boris

Ruth Davidson launches a direct attack on Boris Johnson: "It's not the Boris show .... Boris can you name me one country in the world that has said it would give us a better deal if we come out of the EU?"

She adds: "Obama says we would go to the back of the queue, Obama says we would go to the back of the queue."

 

[Arkain2K]

8:40PM - Next topic: Immigration

Our second topic tonight is immigration. Let's look at the facts before we get into the questions.

EU immigration to the UK
Immigration has always been one of the centre-points of the campaign to leave. Leave campaigners say we can reclaim control of our borders outside the EU.

Just over three million EU-born people currently live in the UK, approximately 1.9 million of whom are employed here.

Over the last five years the rate of immigration from the EU has increased by 51 per cent, while non-EU immigration has fallen eight per cent.

The Migration Observatory figures put this rise down to the introduction of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU. Still, however, the annual number of non-EU immigrants is just higher than those from the EU.

Find out more here.

8:42PM - Immigration and the NHS

The first question on immigration is about the impact it has on the NHS.

Fact check | Would Brexit mean more money for the NHS?
What the Brexiteers say: The UK sends £350m a week to Brussels – money which could be better spent on the NHS.

What the Remainers say: Leaving the European Union would damage the economy and mean less money for the NHS.

How much money do we give to Brussels? Our rebate from the EU is deducted at source, so the contribution is actually £276m a week. This includes £88m a week spent in the UK on farmers, regional aid and such like. It also includes £27m a week in funding for things like research projects in UK universities and companies.

Subtract these figures and we end up with £161m a week being sent to the EU, though this also includes funding which counts towards the government's pledge to spend at least 0.7% of gross national income on aid.

So could more cash be diverted to the NHS? It's hard to say. Being outside the EU would mean the government spend that money however it wished. But the Leave campaign's claim that money could be diverted the NHS has been criticised by the IFS.

The Remain campaign has claimed that the economic shock of Brexit would slow the UK economy meaning the Government raised less in tax and so would end up with less money to spend overall. Brexiteers say those warnings are exaggerated.

 

[Arkain2K]

8:46PM - 'Thank you' to the migrants running our NHS

Sadiq Khan says more than 130,000 EU migrants work in the NHS and our schools.

He says "thank you" to all the migrants who offer a great deal to Britain.

Gisela Stuart responds by highlight that she is an immigrant herself, but she says if you look at places like the West Midlands where there are "50,000 primary school places missing", you soon start to realise the pressures on public services.


8:49PM - Frances O'Grady stuns Vote Leave with BNP question

Frances O'Grady just threw a hand grenade into the debate by saying Vote Leave accepted a £600,000 donation from a former BNP supporter.

Andrea Leadsom says the question is "unworthy" for the debate, quickly moving onto the issue of free movement of people.

It emerged earlier today that one of Vote Leave’s biggest single donors is a former member of the British National Party.

BuzzFeed News revealed that Gladys Bramall, of Sutton Coldfield, has given £600,000 to the official campaign to leave the European Union, according to updated Electoral Commission filings released on Tuesday morning.

This makes her the third biggest individual donor to the campaign to take Britain out of the EU.

The 88-year-old’s name and address appears on a version of the BNP membership list which was leaked in 2006, when Nick Griffin was the party leader.

 

[JDragon]

I just realized that this referendum is not binding for parliament.

If turnout is low and a pro Brexit result is close, I would expect parliament to ignore the vote.

 

[Arkain2K]

8:53PM - Is Turkey going to join the EU?

Sadiq Khan accuses Boris Johnson of using taxpayers money to put out a leaflet which suggests Turkey is about to join the EU. He says it is "scaremongering" to highlight the nearby countries of Syria and Iraq on the map.

Ruth Davidson says that Turkey is not going to join the EU, adding "it is simply not on the cards", but Mr Johnson says "it is government policy".

FAQ | Is Turkey going to join the EU?


By Matthew Holehouse, Brussels Correspondent

What does the Government say?
Backing Turkey’s accession as a means of encouraging reforms and “anchoring” the predominantly Muslim country in the Western order is Britain’s long-standing policy. Visiting six years ago, David Cameron declared it was wrong that Turkey, a Nato member, was asked to “guard the camp but not allowed to sit in the tent”. However, the Prime Minster has recently insisted membership is “not remotely on the cards”.

Surely the Prime Minister is saying this to prevent a Leave vote?
He undoubtably is. But few believe Turkey will be joining for several decades. Turkey and Brussels first agreed to discuss membership in 1963. Ankara applied for EE membership in 1987, and it was given EU candidate status in 1999. Before joining, a state must fulfil convergence reforms in 35 chapters, covering the full sweep of EU law. So far, 14 have been opened and just one, on science and research, provisionally closed. Progress is painfully slow.

Yet isn't the EU going to speed up accession?
Officially, yes. As a sweetener in the €6billion “dirty deal” to halt the migrant crisis, EU leaders agreed in March 2016 to “re-energise” accession talks. But this is going through the motions. President Erdogan’s increasingly erratic and authoritarian conduct, including dismissing his EU-friendly prime minister and threatening to flood Europe with refugees, has alarmed some European leaders.

Could David Cameron stop it?
Yes. Any final decision would require consensus among the leaders of all 28 EU member states. They could insist on clauses delaying the right of free movement for many years, or until certain economic criteria are met. Parties opposed to Muslim immigration are surging across Europe, particularly in the former Soviet bloc, meaning other prime ministers could come under intense pressure to use their veto. In Britain, accession would require ratification by an Act of Parliament, meaning MPs could torpedo the treaty.

 

[Arkain2K]

8:57PM - Next question: How many people can the UK reasonably cope with?
Frances O'Grady admits "there is no doubt that we need to manage migration better" but she says it is wrong that "migrants are always getting the blame for politicians". She says she wants to tackle zero hours contracts, improve the minimum wage and put investment into public services, rather than cuts.

"Greedy bankers trashing the economy" are to blame, not migrants, she adds.


9:05PM - Ruth Davidson: Immigration debate has been too narrow

Ruth Davidson says "we need a much bigger conversation than this" when it comes to immigration. I'm not sure how big she wants it to be? There are 6,000 very excitable audience members here tonight, cheering and applauding both sides.

The Leave campaign has certainly take to using the phrase "take back control" quite a bit tonight, without any real commitment to numbers.

 

[Arkain2K]

9:09PM - Sadiq Khan: 'Leaving EU isn't the answer'

"How is it having more control if you have less money in your pocket as Martin Lewis Moneysaving expert says?

How is it having more control if we have a recession as the Bank of England and IFS say?

How is it having more control if we're not investing in the schools, hospitals and GP practices?

How is it having more control if Karim can't get a job because local employers are suffering?

How is it having more control if there is double the immigration as there would be under an Australian style points system?

How is it having more control if there are businesses from China, India, America choosing Germany and France over London?


9:12PM - 'Mums and dads are on Remain side too'

Ruth Davidson tells the Leave campaign: "I do actually have to remind people that there are actually mums and dads and grans and granddads on this side of the argument as well.

"Britain deserves better than people who say they've got a quick fix but won't tell you what it actually means for Britain, we need a much bigger conversation than this ."

Frances O'Grady, also on the Remain side, says: "Well done you, well done."

How is it having more control if there are young people stifled the opportunities that we had?"

 

[Arkain2K]

Factcheck: Is Turkey going to join the EU?

Is Turkey going to join the European Union? Yes it is. That's EU policy, and British government policy, and David Cameron has promised to pave the "road from Ankara to Brussels".

But is Turkey really going to join the European Union? Not for a very long time; it has only met one out of 35 accession criteria, and David Cameron has said it won't happen until the year 3000.

You're entitled to be confused.

The truth is that the once noble process of EU accession - which let our friends and allies in Poland and Latvia step out of the communist shadow and anchor themselves in a western orbit has become a diplomatic weapon: to foster stabilisation in the Balkans, bolster the hand of reformist leaders, and win Turkish co-operation on halting migration.

It's a bit of a charade. They know this is Ankara, they know it in Brussels, and they know it in Tirana.

If baffled voters blow the whistle on the game on June 23, it will be a diplomatic catastrophe, with profound consequences for Europe's relations with its southern neighbours. But it will also be predictable, and leaders will only have themselves to blame.

 

[Arkain2K]

9:15PM - Next question: If we Remain, how do we know we won't find ourselves in a United States of Europe in another 40 years time?

About | Brexit and British sovereignty

The 1972 Act: supremacy of EU law explained
When the Parliament passed the European Communities Act 1972 it implicitly recognised the primacy of EU law over UK law - a principle that over the following decades was deepened and extended by the decisions of the EU’s top court, the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

Recently there has been push-back by EU member states following years of so-called judicial activism by the ECJ. According to Damian Chalmers, professor of European Union law at the London School of Economics, EU law now takes precedence “unless Parliament expressly says this is not the case or British courts believe that the EU has exceeded its powers”.

A so-called Sovereignty Bill currently being considered could also set out further circumstances when EU legal authority should be restricted. This could include giving the UK Supreme Court a mandate to test whether EU court is exceeding its own competencies.

How many EU rules and regulations are there, and where do they impact us most?
Precise number are impossible to obtain, but Professor Chalmers, citing a 2010 House of Commons Library study, estimates that 14 to 17 per cent of UK law is derived from our EU membership.

In the same study, the UK government estimated that about 50 per cent of UK legislation with “significant economic impact” originates from EU legislation.

The bulk of those laws - around 60 per cent - relate to the fields of agriculture, fisheries and trade with non-EU states

Other areas like defence and public services are largely free of EU involvement, while other areas such as foreign policy and taxation, the UK is protected by either by a veto or qualified majority voting.

Here we look in detail at the key areas where the EU currently impinges on UK sovereignty, and how much sovereignty the UK could reclaim if we voted to leave.