BREXIT Discussion, v4.0: The Back-Pedaling

[Arkain2K]

EU Trade Commissioner: No trade talks until full Brexit
By Mark Urban
June 30, 2016

The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left.

"First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.

After Brexit, the UK would become a "third country" in EU terms, she said - meaning trade would be carried out based on World Trade Organisation rules until a new deal was complete.

A recent trade deal with Canada took seven years to negotiate.

The Canadian agreement will also require ratification by all EU countries, adding another one to two years before it takes effect.

Ms Malmstrom, the EU Trade Commissioner, underlined that detailed talks to shape the UK's new trading relationship with the EU should not start until after the process of leaving politically, under an Article 50 process lasting up to two years.

"There are actually two negotiations. First you exit, and then you negotiate the new relationship, whatever that is," she said.

"The referendum - which of course we take note of and respect - has no legal effect. First there has to be notification, which the next prime minister will do, I hope swiftly. And then that process can start."

There is concern in the City that having to do business for years under WTO rules could be disastrous for the UK's service industries.

Asked whether sticking to such a process wouldn't harm the economies of all EU members, Ms Malmstrom replied: "Yes, but the vote was very clear."

She said she was "saddened" that the UK - which has traditionally defended the principle of free trade - is leaving the EU.

Fearsome challenge

Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave.

It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU.

Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit.

EU officials say the UK's options will soon refine themselves into a Norway-style package that keeps Britain within the single market - subject to EU rules and regulations - or a bespoke "third country" deal on the pattern of Canada's.

They agree that because British businesses are already compliant with EU rules and regulations, choosing to remain within the single market would be "a little quicker", than negotiating a deal like Canada's.

But even a Norway-style single market access deal, they caution, could take years to negotiate, leaving the UK trading on WTO terms in the meantime.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222

 

[Arkain2K]

Theresa May launches Tory leadership bid with pledge to unite country
Home secretary vows to make sure Britain leaves EU, saying there must be no attempts to ‘remain through the back door’

​

Theresa May has launched her bid for the Conservative leadership, pledging that “Brexit means Brexit” and that there would be no general election before 2020.

The home secretary, who campaigned to remain in the EU, positioned herself as the candidate of stability and experience.

Asked for her pitch, she said: “I’m Theresa May and I’m the best person to be prime minister.”

The event was electrified by Michael Gove’s surprise announcement just minutes before she stood up that he would run for the leadership because, he said, Boris Johnson was not a suitable candidate.

Bookmakers were making May the favourite, followed by Gove, even before Johnson dramatically announced later in the morning, after she had made her speech, that he was not going to stand.

At the May leadership announcement event, most MPs thought her speech had worked against Johnson and in her favour by splitting the vote among leave supporters. But Gove is also extremely popular among the Conservative grassroots, so could prove fatal to her campaign if the pair become the final two on the shortlist.

While a string of MPs were defecting from Johnson’s camp to Gove, those loyal to May were making frantic plans to check that all her supporters were still backing her bid.

During her speech, May positioned herself as a candidate to unify the party after a divisive referendum and someone to appeal to the whole country, not a privileged few.

She attempted to woo leave voters by signing up Chris Grayling, a prominent leave campaigner, to chair her campaign and pledging to create a department to negotiate the UK leaving the EU.

After the meeting, other prominent Conservatives signed up to support her. Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, declared his support after having considered a bid himself.

He said: “I have decided that now is not the right time for me to run for the leadership – though I remain completely committed to ensuring we secure our position as a great trading nation with sensible controls on migration. I believe that Theresa May has the strength, judgment and values to deliver those things. She is the right choice to lead Britain in a challenging period and will make a truly outstanding prime minister.”

May also promised categorically that Britain would leave the EU, with no attempts to “remain through the back door”.

“The country voted to leave the European Union, and it is the duty of the government and of parliament to make sure we do just that,” she said.

She also ruled out an early general election if she was leader and said there would be a normal autumn statement and no emergency budget. No decision to invoke article 50 should be made until the British negotiating strategy was agreed, she said, which means not before the end of this year.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...y-leadership-bid-with-pledge-to-unite-country

 

[Concrete Whale]

The shamelessness displayed by some of the delusional British posters in this thread is incredible. You guy voted to Leave, the E.U have asked you repeatedly to Leave, now just fucking Leave already!!!

With all the foot-dragging, back-pedalling, straw-grasping, and finger-pointing after the vote, I now seriously doubts that we would even see Article 50 invoked by the British this year, if at all.

A few days ago, the vote was widely seen as a display of defiance. Now it just looks like a bluff that got called.



It does explain why there are millions of stupid young Brits demanding a second round of voting (via online petition, of all things) because they somehow didn't get to do it properly the first time.

It's unclear if that's also the evil E.U's fault as well.

We the actual normal British people are no longer masters in our own country.

 

[Concrete Whale]

The night of experts said it would take at least two years to move out of the EU officially, A point that seems lost with alot of people. It seems to me the only people who are freaking out are the ones trying to convince everyone that the people got it wrong and that they need to let the EU take full control of their country. I say get the process going but I am well aware this is only the beginning.

Yes they need to trigger article 50 which starts a 2 year countdown to leaving. If for some reason the UK has not left in those 2 years there's a backup clause as well in which it can unilaterally leave. However they are saying it's going to be months before they even discuss starting the process, it has to wait until after new party leaders are elected, after conferences, my succesor will do it etc.

 

[Metusalemi]

So, leave campaigners are painted out to be bumbling morons.

What does it tell us about the remain campaigners, because you know... they lost.

 

[Ruprecht]

Hilarious. So much for Boris' naked ambition.
See a lot of rumours floating around about his sudden face plant.
Gove back stabbing obviously being the major factor, but also a couple of supposed email "leaks" painting a picture of his complete lack of conservative establishment support.

 

[Concrete Whale]

Hilarious. So much for Boris' naked ambition.
See a lot of rumours floating around about his sudden face plant.
Gove back stabbing obviously being the major factor, but also a couple of supposed email "leaks" painting a picture of his complete lack of conservative establishment support.

5 out of 6 of the UK's top political parties were for remain and the people still voted leave lol. Labour is a shadow of its former self and the Conservative party will have to make major changes to stay relevant much longer.

 

[Metusalemi]

5 out of 6 of the UK's top political parties were for remain and the people still voted leave lol. Labour is a shadow of its former self and the Conservative party will have to make major changes to stay relevant much longer.

That's just a tell tale sign of how detached the political elite is from this world atm.

 

[avengedsixfold]

That's just a tell tale sign of how detached the political elite is from this world atm.

I'm not so sure, the vote was very close and a lot of the leave campaign was based on several prominent declarations that have since been retracted (like halting immigration, easy access to EU market, 350m a week to be spent on the NHS).

 

[Metusalemi]

I'm not so sure, the vote was very close and a lot of the leave campaign was based on several prominent declarations that have since been retracted (like halting immigration, easy access to EU market, 350m a week to be spent on the NHS).

Just like when we were voting for joining in the EU...

I was a naive 18 year old...

 

[Codger]

I'm not so sure, the vote was very close and a lot of the leave campaign was based on several prominent declarations that have since been retracted (like halting immigration, easy access to EU market, 350m a week to be spent on the NHS).

it might well allow us to take control of our borders and reduce immigration to sensible levels. Nobody knows what the deals we'll get are. It's not over yet.

I've not spoken to a single person who thought that 350m a week would ever go to the NHS or even that it should. And they certainly didn't vote because of it. People I speak to voted to bring back control to the UK: control of borders and political control. These things may well happen. I personally think they will and that the EU countries will have to accept a new arrangement in the end.

The remain camp pretend it's a foregone conclusion that we'll go into a Norway-style situation. It's not. They like to pretend the leavers are stupid bigots. They're not. I met with 3 MD of companies today - a lady originally from Thailand, a guy originally from Nepal and a white brit. They all run successful companies. They all deal with Europe to a greater or lesser extent. None of them are stupid or racist, or even mentioned anything about spending on the NHS etc. And they all voted to leave as they are sick of the EU impositions and the ever forward march of a project they never agreed to. They all wonder what the fuss is about and are confident good deals will be reached when the panicking stops. Obviously this doesn't fit with the "stupid, racist leavers" story so they're not the ones selected to appear in the media.

The cost of this single market is far more complex and greater than simple figures touted in this thread. The truth is the government doesn't even keep figures as to the true costs of the the regulation etc because it's not convenient to do so.

To obtain an additional £14.2bn of UK exports of goods and services in 2013, the UK taxpayer paid the EU £11.2bn, plus estimated indirect costs. How much? well if we accept the EU estimate in 2012 another £99.3bn.

But how much are the invaluable trade agreements negotiated by the powerful
EU block on behalf of and instead of its members? We'll be missing out sorely on those....

The GDP in 2015 of the 55 countries with an EU agreement in force in January 2014 is $7.7tn.
That sounds like quite a big market. But how does it compare to some other countries who negotiated their own agreements with countries? The countries Chile has signed up with are worth $58tn, Korea $41tn, Switzerland $40tn and Singapore $41tn. Doesn't sound like the EU are negotiating such amazing deals with big economies - nowhere near as big as other, independent countries are doing.

But the UK is heavily dependent on its service industries so the EU's agreements must be better for us in that regard right? Wrong. Less than 70% of EU trade agreements include services whereas these 90% of these 4 countries' agreements include services. The EU has only opened $4.8tn of services markets to the UK exporters whereas the Swiss have $35tn

But of course being outside the EU's "mighty negotiating" power would be death the UK operting on its own terms.....

 

[Goonerview]

Brexit prompts a push to end English as an official language of the European Union
By Michael Birnbaum
June 28, 2016

British Prime Minister David Cameron, left, speaks with E.U. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels on Tuesday. ​

BRUSSELS — European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had a message for Britain on Tuesday. He delivered it in French.

With the impending British exit from the European Union, the polyglot Babel that has 24 official languages may soon strike English off the list, according to officials here, who note the change with a mixture of sadness and glee.

The European Union long conducted its business in French, even for decades after Britain and Ireland joined the bloc in 1973. But as the alliance expanded into Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, the momentum moved ineluctably toward English, the second language of choice for a far wider number of European citizens, diplomats and leaders. English is the common tongue at summits such as the one taking place Tuesday, with the leaders of E.U. member nations descending on Brussels for a grim, English-speaking dinner with British Prime Minister David Cameron.

But if Britain pulls out, the European Union will lose the only nation that has designated English as its official language inside E.U. institutions. Each country is allowed to pick one tongue, and Ireland and Malta — the other two E.U. nations that are predominantly English-speaking — chose Gaelic and Maltese, respectively. But they are tiny compared with the juggernauts of France and Germany, which supply the other two “unofficial” working languages of the European Union.

“Despite the vote, the British remain our friends,” Juncker told the European Parliament in French on Tuesday, forcing many of the 751 legislators to put on headsets to hear a translation. “As a result of the British vote, we’ve lost something very important.”

Juncker, a former prime minister of polyglot Luxembourg, typically speaks publicly in a succession of English, French and German, although English is his weakest language among the three. Other top E.U. leaders, including European Council President Donald Tusk, a former prime minister of Poland, confine their public comments to English.

Aides to Juncker said before his speech that the omission of English was a deliberate effort to send a message to Britain.

But others in Europe also were rooting for an end to English.

“English can no longer be the third working language of the European Parliament,” left-wing French politician and European Parliament member Jean-Luc Mélenchon wrote on Twitter.



“English is our official language because it has been notified by the U.K.,” Danuta Hübner, the chair of the Constitutional Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, said at a news conference on Monday. “If we don't have the U.K., we don't have English.”

Official E.U. rules require that all official communications be translated into all 24 E.U. languages — a vast operation that the European Commission says makes it the largest employer of translators in the world. If English were to be struck from the list, that would leave Britain to muddle through the difference between "adieu" and "au revoir" on its own.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-a-push-to-end-english-in-the-european-union/

lol, the EU is going to be a club of failed economies with the Germans propping them up. The Germans would love that though, as they have a lot of WW2, cuck guilt they want to shed.

I'm so glad we left.

 

[Goonerview]

Brexit: Vote Leave wipes NHS £350m claim and rest of its website after EU referendum

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...its-website-after-eu-referendum-a7105546.html

Brexit was a referendum .... Boris and Farage are NOT the government .... you do know this??

 

[Goonerview]

Not sure if this is funny or sad. It's the most important British vote of the century and these folks thought it's just fun and games:

Anger over 'Bregret' as Leave voters say they thought UK would stay in EU
Lizzie Dearden
Saturday 25 June 2016

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...hought-uk-stay-in-eu-remain-win-a7102516.html

bunch of pussies ... at least stand by your decision .... probably feeling guilted into regret by their cuck, "liberal" friends and FB wall.

 

[McBryde Mats LLC]

Loved the Anonymous scam petition, people and media can be such sheep

 

[TheStruggle]

So, leave campaigners are painted out to be bumbling morons.

What does it tell us about the remain campaigners, because you know... they lost.

and it wasn't even close

 

[Teen Wolf]

Brexit was a referendum .... Boris and Farage are NOT the government .... you do know this??

Just reporting some information. You don't have to defend everything, including their lies.

 

[BVG]

Britain is better off leaving...

the fact that our media is pushing for them to stay and creating a narrative that their needs to be a second vote and that it was a big mistake kind of seals my opinion that leaving was the right call.

 

[Arkain2K]

We are.

It's okay, people who have done their research and casted their votes based on cold hard facts have no reasons to feel bad about themselves.

Emotional suckers who have casted their votes based on sweet lies or doomsday predictions should feel bad for not doing their research like they should.

But it's the millions of crybabies refusing to get out of bed to go vote (or just randomly voted for fun and now want to change their mind) who should shut the hell up. This isn't a stupid game. There is no do-overs, kids. The quicker you accepts reality, the sooner you can move on from limbo and focus on what's next: selecting a new Prime Minister to trigger Article 50 and initiate Brexit trade negotiations.

 

[snakedafunky]

The only possible option for the UK to go forward with some kind of consistency is if they can get a new Prime minister that was in the remaining camp but not on the vocal site like this May Lady.

It is pretty obvious now that the UK wont get a deal to the single market without free movement of people. So the new prime minister needs to sell that to the people in the UK, because I think having no access to the single market would a possibility for the UK. I don't see how a new prime minister that was on the exit team can explain it to the British people, he will be in trouble straight away.

It might also sent a signal to the EU that they new government is willing to negotiate. I don't think anyone in Brussels would have been happy to negotiate with Boris.

I guess the claim from the brexit camp that the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU are proven to be false now. Because the EU has already established certain things and pushes for an exit asap, while the UK is already in staling mode.

I can understand the people that voted for the Brexit because they want to take the control back. But it seems more and more the economic reality the UK faces now has been misrepresented by the Brexit campaign.