BREXIT Discussion, v4.0: The Back-Pedaling

Arkain2K

Arkain2K

Si vis pacem, para bellum
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IMPORTANT NOTICE:

- Get yourself up to speed with the latest information indexed below prior to joining the discussion, as this is a retardation-free zone.

- Perpetuating lies from the politicians on either side is the quickest way to get curb-stomped in here, as many have learned.

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Brexit Discussion, Part 4: The Back-Pedaling


Brexit Discussion, Part 3: The World's Reaction to Brexit


Brexit Discussion, Part 2: The Day After The Vote


Brexit Discussion, Part 1: Counting Down to the Referendum
 
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Cameron hands task of EU divorce to next PM
By Angela Dewan, for CNN
Mon June 27, 2016

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London (CNN) Not since World War II has Britain faced such an uncertain future.

A vote last week to pull out of the European Union has left Britain with a nasty hangover, sending the currency spiraling, dampening markets, creating a leadership vacuum and triggering talks of Scottish secession from Britain, forcing the government into damage control.

But the divorce is already looking messy, with Prime Minister David Cameron and key EU leaders in disagreement on how to even begin.
Cameron, who resigned after the vote and plans to step down in October, said he would not yet officially inform the EU of Britain's withdrawal from the bloc.

"Before we do that, we need to determine the kind of relationship we want with the EU," he said. "Any new negotiation to leave the EU will begin under a new prime minister."

But German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear that Britain's official notice must come first, which involves invoking a clause in the treaty that binds the union.

"We cannot start some sort of informal talks without having received the notice from Great Britain. This is very clear to me," she told journalists in Berlin on Monday as EU leaders huddled ahead of a major meeting in Brussels. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will also attend, although Cameron is not expected to take part in much of the session.

She said the EU does "not want a stalemate." "But we have to be sure we are not hanging in the balance, and the first step must be taken by Great Britain," she said.

French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi agreed with Merkel, saying Britain must "waste no time" to get the separation started.

Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, who backed Britain remaining in the EU, said stalling the announcement would leave Britain in "a state of paralysis," delaying for months what could be a two-year separation process, potentially followed by more years of trade talks.

But Corbyn faces political paralysis of his own, and his Labour Party is offering no more certainty to the British public than the ruling Conservatives.
Nineteen Labour Party MPs have resigned from senior posts in an act of no confidence in the divisive leftist leader.

Cameron was quick to jump on fallout from an attempted Labour Party coup, appearing chirpy despite the failure of his campaign to keep Britain in the European Union.

"And I thought I was having a bad day," he joked in Parliament of Corbyn's leadership problems.
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Broken promises

Like the markets, Brits are jittery, not knowing who will lead their country come October or whether any of the promises made by the leave camp will even come into fruition.

Leave campaigners are already back-pedaling on their promises, and many who voted to leave say they feel cheated, and regret their vote.

The leave camp said pulling out of the European Union would save Britain £350 million a week, money that could be poured into the country's stretched National Health Service. Now they are saying they can't guarantee that would actually happen.
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Who's in charge?

Cameron announced in parliament that a new unit would be established to deal specifically with the EU divorce in what he described as one of the "most complex" tasks assigned to the civil service in decades.

It would bring together members of various bodies and services, including the cabinet office, the foreign office and the Treasury, among others.

Earlier a spokeswoman from the prime minister's office said that Oliver Letwin, one of Cameron's influential policy advisers, would lead the unit.
Letwin is an old friend of Cameron's from Eton College. Cameron had come under criticism for peppering his cabinet with old school friends from the expensive institution.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that the vote would not change Washington's "unbreakable bond" with Britain.

"We believe our relationship remains as strong and as crucial as ever," he said at a joint press conference in London with British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond.

Hammond said that vote was "damaging to Britain" but also "damaging for the European Union," arguing that both Britain and EU would have been enhanced if the people voted to remain in the bloc.
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'Open for business'

Leaders are now trying to allay fears that Britain may be heading for recession and are trying to boost confidence in its markets and currency to avoid an economic meltdown.

Cameron reminded parliament that Britain has "one of the strongest major advanced economies in the world."

But the country just lost its top AAA credit rating with agency Standard & Poor's, which measures a country's ability to meet its financial commitments.
"In the nationwide referendum on the U.K.'s membership of the European Union (EU), the majority of the electorate voted to leave the EU. In our opinion, this outcome is a seminal event, and will lead to a less predictable, stable, and effective policy framework in the U.K.," S&P said in a staement.

"The vote for 'remain' in Scotland and Northern Ireland also creates wider constitutional issues for the country as a whole," it said.
But Cameron assured the world that Britain was "well placed to face the challenges ahead. The [central] bank's stress tests show that UK institutions have enough capital and liquidity reserves to withstand a scenario more severe than the country currently faces."

Cameron's comments echoed those of UK Treasury chief George Osborne, who said earlier that the economy remained "fundamentally strong."

"To companies, large and small, I would say this: the British economy is fundamentally strong, highly competitive and we are open for business."

But the shock outcome of the Brexit vote pushed the British pound down to its lowest leve in around three decades, and hit the country's markets hard.

The pound was down to 1.31 to the dollar by the afternoon and London's FTSE 250, which is made up of mostly mid-sized British companies, closed 7% lower Monday.

Former London mayor and prominent leave campaigner Boris Johnson -- tipped as a favorite to stand in for Cameron as prime minister -- welcomed Osborne's decision not to make any changes to the budget until after a new prime minister is installed. He said "project fear" is over, referring to what he said was economic fear-mongering from remain campaigners trying to keep Britain in the bloc.

But Adam Marshall, Acting Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said that businesses wanted a clear timetable for exit.

"While it is prudent for the UK government to delay firing the starting gun on negotiations with the European Union, firms want a clear timetable, and simultaneous action to support the wider economy," he said.
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Labour's own meltdown

The jockeying for power is not exclusive to Cameron's Conservative Party. Labour MPs have seized the Brexit turmoil to try to oust party leader Corbyn, who has taken the party in a new direction after two consecutive election losses to the Conservatives.

Corbyn is a divisive figure among Labour MPs -- his leftist economic vision is seen as radical, including salary caps and nationalization of essential services like public transportation.

But he is popular among Britain's left. He has brought tens of thousands of new members to the party and an attempt to oust him could easily backfire, as party members across the country could easily vote him back in should his leadership be officially challenged.

Labour MPs argue that Corbyn is popular but not realistically electable, and could keep the party in the political doldrums for years to come.
On Monday, Corbyn announced a new-look "shadow" cabinet, following the resignations of senior party members from their positions.

Britain's main opposition party typically creates a shadow cabinet mirroring the party in power. Shadow ministers are assigned portfolios, and it is their job to challenge cabinet ministers on specific issues.

By the late afternoon, 19 of these shadow ministers had resigned. Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn was given the boot after he was accused of being behind the leadership coup against Corbyn that is still simmering.

Labour confirmed 10 new appointments, including key allies Diane Abbott as shadow health secretary and Emily Thornberry as shadow foreign secretary to replace Benn. While his parliamentary colleagues are set to discuss a no confidence motion against Corbyn, the beleaguered leader has stated that he will stand in any future leadership contests.

"Those who want to change Labour's leadership will have to stand in a democratic election, in which I will be a candidate," he said.
Critics within his own party have criticized Corbyn's lukewarm campaigning for the UK to remain within the EU, and suggest the blame for the country's exit should at least partially fall on his shoulders.

At the time of writing, an online petition to retain Corbyn as leader had garnered just over 200,000 signatures.
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Boris Johnson: Time for unity

In his regular Sunday Telegraph column, leave campaigner and potential future prime minister Boris Johnson sought to reassure Britain that the country remains "a part of Europe, and always will be" following Thursday's EU referendum.

Writing his first opinion piece in the pro-Leave Telegraph since the so-called "Brexit" poll determined that a majority of voters wished to end the UK's43-year membershipin the European project, Johnson sought to reassure "Remain" voters and the markets.

"We who are part of this narrow majority must do everything we can to reassure the Remainers," he wrote.

"We must reach out, we must heal, we must build bridges -- because it is clear that some have feelings of dismay, and of loss, and confusion."
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Renewed calls for Scotland to secede

Following the seismic vote, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested that the Scottish Parliament could yet veto the decision, the BBC reports, though the Conservative Party has rejected the idea. Sturgeon earlier said that a second independence referendum for Sctoland was very possible should Britain's EU divorce become official.

On Sunday she said that she would "of course" ask her party's members to refuse to give their "legislative consent" for the EU separation and that it would be "democratically unacceptable" for Scotland to lose its EU membership after voting 62% to remain. She said she would initiate talks with Brussels in the coming week about Scotland remaining in the EU.
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Global economic shockwaves

The Brexit effects are still being felt around the world. In the U.S., the Dow dropped 258 points in the early afternoon and U.S. financial stocks took a hammering.

Europe's markets closed deep in the red, with the Irish Stock Exchange losing a steep 9.5% and Germany's DAX dropping 3%.

But some markets further afield appear to have weathered the storm. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed up 2.39%, recovering some of Friday's steep losses, while Australia's S&P ASX 200 finished up 0.47%.

Delivering opening remarks at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin, China, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that the impact of the vote was being felt worldwide and would increase global uncertainty and make it more difficult for the global economy to rebound. He added that stability for both the bloc and the breakaway UK was important to shore up the global economy.

"Europe is an important partner of China. China will keep preserving and developing both China-EU and China-UK relations. We hope to see a united and stable EU as well as a stable and prosperous UK."
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http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/27/europe/uk-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-boris-johnson/
 
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Germany rules out informal Brexit negotiations before Article 50 is Triggered
June 27, 2016

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The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has said there can be no talks on Brexit before the UK formally begins the process of leaving the EU.

While accepting the UK needed time, she added it should not be a "long time".

Mrs Merkel is due to meet French and Italian leaders later in Berlin, with the speed of negotiations for the UK's exit high on the agenda.

UK Prime Minister David Cameron has confirmed the UK is not ready to begin the formal withdrawal process.

Earlier, Chancellor George Osborne issued a statement to try to calm markets. UK shares remained uneasy in the wake of the vote.

Billions more dollars were wiped off the value of shares in Europe and on Wall Street as a result of market uncertainty on Monday. London's benchmark share index was down 2.75% while Germany's leading index fell by 3%.

Last Thursday, the UK voted 52-48 in favour of leaving the EU in a historic referendum, throwing the economy and politics into turmoil.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has said his country's "special relationship" with the UK will be maintained. "The vote did not come out the way US President [Barack] Obama and I had expected but that's democracy," he told reporters in Brussels.
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What exactly did Mrs Merkel say?
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"The reality is that a majority of British citizens voted to leave... so I await a communication about Article 50 [the formal trigger for withdrawal] from the UK addressed to the EU," Mrs Merkel said.

"We should not wait a long time. I do understand that the UK will consider things for a while. There cannot be any informal negotiations until we get that message from the UK.

"We can't have a permanent impasse," she was quoted as saying by Reuters news agency.

Once the UK invokes it, Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon sets out a two-year timetable to reach an exit deal. But UK PM David Cameron, who will step down by October, says he will leave the timing to his successor. He is due to make a special address to parliament later.

The Leave campaign says there is no need to rush the UK's exit.

France and Germany have insisted they are in "full agreement" on Brexit, although French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said on Monday this meant Britain should "go quickly".
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How is the UK government responding?

Mr Cameron took to the floor of the House of Commons to say he had spoken to European leaders and told them "the British government [would] not be triggering Article 50 at this stage".

"Before we do that we need to determine the kind of relationship we want with the EU," he said.

He repeated his promise to stand down as prime minister this year and said it would be up to his successor to invoke Article 50.

The chancellor, who backed Remain, tried to reassure financial markets that the UK was in a strong position to tackle the inevitable volatility.

Despite suggesting before the vote that an emergency budget would be needed, he indicated that this would not now be an immediate priority, preferring to leave any adjustments to the economy to the new PM.

He appeared to rule out resigning in the near future.
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What are the Leave campaigners saying?

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Boris Johnson, the leading light of the Leave campaign, used an article in the Daily Telegraph to try to soothe British fears.

"EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU. British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and settle down," he said.

He also suggested the UK would still have access to the EU's single market, a remark quickly challenged by the German Business Institute and Merkel ally Michael Fuchs, MP.

Mr Fuchs said: "It will be possible, of course, but not for free - you have to see with Norway, with Switzerland, you have to pay a certain fee. And the per capita fee of Norway is exactly the same as what Britain is now paying into the EU. So there won't be any savings."
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What's the latest political fallout in the UK?

Labour faced more turmoil, with further resignations of shadow ministers on Monday. Twenty-three of the 31 members of the shadow cabinet have now gone.

Mr Corbyn has announced a new team but faces a possible no-confidence vote.

Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland, which voted 62% for Remain, told the BBC the Scottish parliament could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

She also confirmed a second Scottish independence referendum was back on the table.
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Brexit: A busy week ahead

Monday: Angela Merkel holds crisis talks in Berlin, first with EU President Donald Tusk, then with Mr Hollande and Mr Renzi (statement to media expected at 18:30 local time, 16:30 GMT).

Tuesday: Extraordinary European Parliament session in Brussels on Brexit vote 10:00-12:00 (08:00-10:00 GMT), including speeches by Mr Tusk, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and party leaders, probably including UKIP's Nigel Farage. There is also an EU summit (European Council) in Brussels, at which David Cameron will brief the other EU leaders over dinner, from 19:45 (17:45 GMT), explaining the political fallout in the UK

Wednesday: Second day of EU summit will feature breakfast talks between 27 leaders - Mr Cameron not attending. Talks focus on UK's "divorce process" as stipulated by Article 50, and Mr Tusk will "launch a wider reflection on the future of the EU"; press conferences in afternoon.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36637232
 
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John Oliver on Brexit Vote: 'There Are No Fucking Do Overs'
Tom Huddleston, Jr.
June 27, 2016


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A week after dedicating the bulk of an episode of HBO’s Last Week Tonight to laying out the potential pitfalls of a U.K. decision to leave the European Union, British comedian John Oliver returned on Sunday night with a condemnation of the Brexit referendum results.

Discussing the seismic aftereffects of the U.K.’s vote to leave the EU, the British-born Oliver kicked off Sunday’s show by joking that after the events of the past week the name, the United Kingdom “is beginning to sound a bit sarcastic.” He went on: “Because the U.K. this week voted to leave the European Union, a decision that has shaken the world. And not in a, ‘Muhammad Ali beating Sonny Liston’ kind of way. More in a, ‘Those IKEA meatballs you love contain horse kind of way.’ And, the fallout in Britain has been swift and significant.”

In addition to the global financial fallout in the wake of the U.K.’s historic decision, Oliver noted the announcement that British Prime Minister David Cameron will resign as a result of the vote, due to the fact that Cameron had supported the “Remain” camp in the vote. And he talked about the upheaval that will ensue from the Brexit vote.

“It seems like whoever the next U.K. prime minister is going to be, whether it’s Boris Johnson or a racist tea kettle, they are going to be in for a rough few years,” he said.

Even though he said he’d normally take pleasure in Cameron leaving his post, he couldn’t now because he knew how horrible the Brexit fallout will be for the U.K. “David Cameron announced he would be stepping down in the wake of the vote, which should make me happy, but in this situation, it doesn’t,” he said. “It’s like catching an ice cream cone out of the air because a child was hit by a car. I mean, I’ll eat it, I’ll eat it — but it’s tainted somehow.”

http://fortune.com/2016/06/27/john-oliver-brexit-trump/
 
Merkel, Hollande in 'full agreement' on Brexit negotiations
June 27, 2016

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The German and French leaders are in "full agreement" on dealing with the "Brexit," according to the French presidency. But elsewhere, uncertainty about what happens next seems to prevail.

Ahead of an EU-wide summit on Tuesday and Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande have said they are in "full agreement on how to handle the situation" after British citizens voted last Thursday to leave the bloc, French presidency sources say.

A source close to Hollande told the AFP news agency that both leaders had agreed in a phone call on the need for "the greatest clarity to avoid any uncertainty," and had called for the quick European action "on concrete priorities."

However, the clarity and certainty they are calling for currently seem like impossible goals, as the European Union, and Britain itself, struggle to come to terms with the UK's decision to become the first member state ever to quit the bloc.
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Calls for swift British action

Germany's EU Commissioner Günther Oettinger on Monday joined the chorus of voices calling on Britain to clarify its intentions after the Brexit vote, telling broadcaster Deutschlandfunk that the Conservative Party under Prime Minister David Cameron must swiftly decide on what course to take.

"With every day of uncertainty, investors in the whole world will be discouraged from investing in Great Britain or from believing in Europe," Oettinger said.

His comments echoed those made at the weekend by the president of the European Parliament, Oettinger's compatriot Martin Schulz.

Schulz called for Britain to apply to leave on Tuesday at the EU summit to make it easier for the bloc to get back on its feet quickly after the shock of losing one of its most powerful economies.

On Monday, Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert also said that the chancellor rejected any long delay in Britain's departure from the bloc.

"The German government does not want an impasse. That cannot be in anyone's interest in Europe," Seibert said in Berlin.

He added that Merkel was also opposed to "informal exit talks" with Britain before it officially applied to leave the EU.
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Wait and see?

However, Britain's Cameron has so far refused to invoke Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty and has signalled that he wants to wait several months before beginning the country's exit from the bloc, leaving his European partners in a state of limbo. Invoking Article 50 would trigger some two years of exit negotiations.

Cameron, who supported the "Remain" campaign at Thursday's referendum, is expected to stay on in a caretaker role until his Conservative Party chooses a new leader. By Cameron's timetable, a replacement should be found ready for the Tories' party conference in October, a delay that might not prove palatable on the continent.

Even those British politicians behind the "Leave" campaign seem to be in considerable doubt as to how to proceed without damaging British interests.

Boris Johnson, who is favorite to become the next Conservative prime minister, has tried to allay fears about the country's economic future by claiming that it would continue to have access to the EU single market.

What he could not explain, however, was how Britain can continue to partake in free trade in Europe without accepting precisely the EU regulations that those in the "Leave" campaign want to jettison, including rules on freedom of movement for EU citizens.

The fallout from the referendum result has also wreaked havoc within the opposition Labour Party, with senior parliamentarians withrawing their backing for leader Jeremy Corbyn, who has faced widespread accusations of failing to galvanize Labour supporters into voting against the "Brexit."
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Historic decision

On mainland Europe, Merkel and Hollande will be meeting on Monday with Italian leader Matteo Renzi in Berlin to discuss the consequences of a British EU exit for the bloc.

Then, on Tuesday, leaders from all 28 EU member states, including Cameron, will meet in Brussels for a two-day summit to hammer out a plan for how to proceed in the unprecedented situation.

The United Kingdom joined the forerunner of the EU, the European Economic Community, 43 years ago. Many fear that its decision now to leave the bloc could fuel euroskepticism in other member states as well, thus undermining a project that is widely seen as promoting not only economic prosperity, but also peace and international harmony.
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http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-hollande-in-full-agreement-on-brexit-negotiations/a-19359282
 
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You put a lot of effort into your threads, Arkain. You deserve more likes.

Thanks, Brah!!
 
PrinceOfPain said:
You put a lot of effort into your threads, Arkain. You deserve more likes.

Thanks, Brah!!
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he would get more likes if he didnt have half of the forum on his ignore list lol
 
MayhemMonkey919 said:
he would get more likes if he didnt have half of the forum on his ignore list lol
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Lol, I don't know about that, but the guy's threads are kept updated, indexed and informative. I don't know (or particularly care) if I'm on his ignore list, but he puts in the work.
 
It's starting to sound like The Mad Cow and Hollande want to take the adversarial path to Brexit. Is this just to discourage other states from leaving the EU, or purely a negotiating tactic? Rhetorical question, as only time will tell.
 
PrinceOfPain said:
Lol, I don't know about that, but the guy's threads are kept updated, indexed and informative. I don't know (or particularly care) if I'm on his ignore list, but he puts in the work.
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he used to moan at me for arguing with people in his threads, probably because he could only see my part of the arguments. but yeah man I agree, Arkain is a really good poster and he puts effort into his threads
 
Bald1 said:
It's starting to sound like The Mad Cow and Hollande want to take the adversarial path to Brexit. Is this just to discourage other states from leaving the EU, or purely a negotiating tactic? Rhetorical question, as only time will tell.
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If they make it a combative divorce, I think they'll be fucking themselves in the foot (yes, fucking themselves in the foot).
The European peoples are already apprehensive about the EU. Punishing Britain for making a decision for themselves will just rile those groups up even more, and prove that the EU is an abusive power.
IMO.
 
The EU is kind of creepy. It's like once you are in they won't let you leave. I just read Merkel wants to now stop any other nation from leaving. Wow isn't that interesting.4 freaking years hahaha

Like a gang. Once you join you can't leave. Lol at the EU.

Also, EU apologists don't give me that "it takes time" crap. I support the EU I just find it funny how a mess it is and that Europe feels it will collapse and cant survive without the 'glorious' EU.
 
Also, the USA, Canada and the UK should now form their own trade pact/union. Maybe. Or UK can be independent like Norway and Switzerland are.
 
SouthoftheAndes said:
The EU is kind of creepy. It's like once you are in they won't let you leave. I just read Merkel wants to now stop any other nation from leaving. Wow isn't that interesting.4 freaking years hahaha

Like a gang. Once you join you can't leave. Lol at the EU.

Also, EU apologists don't give me that "it takes time" crap. I support the EU I just find it funny how a mess it is and that Europe feels it will collapse and cant survive without the 'glorious' EU.
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I think their problem is that they are pushing too fast, and too hard.

Also it is getting a tad obvious that they are using demographics engineering to undermine and dissolve their member states. If they slowed it down and made it less obvious there would be less apprehension.
 
http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...onsent-scottish-parliament-says-lords-report/

Brexit ‘Would Need Consent of Scottish Parliament’ Says Lords Report

Britain’s final withdrawal from the European Union would need the consent of the Scottish Parliament, a House of Lords report has suggested.
The report, published last month, says that in the event of Brexit, parts of the law that established the Scottish Parliament would have to be amended, and that can normally only be done with the Scottish Parliament’s consent.
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The bright side of Brexit? A US-UK trade deal
Benjamin Oreskes and Victoria Guida
Updated 6/25/16

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As sprawling regional trade deals become increasingly toxic politically, a trade deal with the U.K. could be relatively easy to negotiate and sell.​


A new two-way trade deal between the U.S. and one of its oldest allies could rise from the ashes of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union and the already-foundering EU-U.S. talks.

President Barack Obama reassured the world Friday that British voters’ decisions to leave the EU would not affect “the special relationship” between the two countries, despite having warned this spring that Brits would move to “the back of the queue” in trade negotiations if they voted to leave.

And several Republican lawmakers told POLITICO they’d be more than happy to pursue a U.S.-United Kingdom deal once the smoke from an EU-U.K. split clears.

“They’ve been a great trading partner to the United States for decades and decades, and I wouldn’t stop trading with them ’cause they got out of the EU,” Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) said before the vote. “I’d be happy to negotiate a bilateral agreement.”

Senate Finance Committee member Isakson added, “it might even be easier” than negotiating a broad agreement with the entire EU.

And that’s not an insignificant point.

As sprawling regional trade deals become increasingly toxic politically — EU-U.S. trade talks have faced strident opposition in Germany and Austria, for example, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership became a bogeyman during the U.S. presidential primaries — a trade deal with the U.K. could be relatively easy to negotiate and then sell to lawmakers and the public. The prize would be reducing tariffs and other regulatory barriers the U.K. would likely have as a holdover from EU policies.

“We’re interested in having free trade with anybody,” Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said when asked about the prospects of a two-way agreement post-Brexit.

“We should now begin to discuss a modern, new trade agreement with the U.K that not only continues but expands the level of trade between our two nations,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady said Friday, adding he remains committed to an agreement with the EU as well.

If the Brits vote to leave the EU, “there will be a new bilateral trade agreement,” Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton declared on Tuesday.

To be sure, it could take up to two years for the United Kingdom to unwind itself from the European Union, and the U.K. would be prevented from negotiating separately with the U.S. until it has fully extricated itself from the bloc. The former empire would also have to sort out its relationship with the World Trade Organization.

At that point, if the president were so inclined, he or she would likely face an easier job convincing Congress to back a two-country agreement than a European-wide agreement, known as The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership or TTIP, which has already has drawn concerns from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and other key Republicans over the EU’s stances on agriculture.

The struggles of the those talks make a hypothetical U.S.-U.K. deal seem like a cakewalk by comparison.

Beyond the comparatively inviting political landscape, it’s easier to negotiate a trade pact without having to navigate the political dynamics of, in TTIP’s case, 27 additional countries. Trade experts also say that a two-way deal could encompass areas where the U.K. and the U.S. are more in sync than the rest of Europe, such as financial services and the recognition of professional credentials.

Donald Trump said Friday morning that the United Kingdom will “always be at the front of the line,” when it comes to negotiating free trade deals. He has expressed a preference for simpler trade deals.

“I want one-on-one,” the candidate said in a rally in Indiana last month. “I don’t want to be tied up: If ‘Country A’ does this and if ‘Country C’ does that, then ‘Country D’ will be able to come to — nobody knows what the hell is going on. And the bad countries, countries that haven’t treated us well, benefit because they get the benefit of what the good countries are getting. So everybody is taking advantage. It’s a disaster.”

Hillary Clinton was more cautious in a statement Friday, affirming the close ties between the countries. Reacting to plunging global stock markets, she said, “our first task has to be to make sure that the economic uncertainty created by these events does not hurt working families here in America.”

There’s also a strong economic relationship for the two sides to build on. The U.S. is the U.K.’s most important trading partner – importing just over $56 billion in goods a year. A fifth of the goods that the U.S. exports to the EU go to the U.K., and, in 2014, there was almost $588 billion in U.S. foreign direct investment in the country.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) made it clear that he was all for encouraging more trade with Britain, although he continues to prefer a U.S.-EU trade pact.

“We will continue to work together,” he said of Britain, “to strengthen a robust trade relationship and to address our common security interests.”

This wouldn’t be the first time the two nations considered casting their lot together. In the late ’90s and early 2000s, after the North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect, conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic pushed the U.K. to spurn the EU and join the nascent trilateral trade bloc. In 1999, the Senate Finance Committee even commissioned a report to study the scenario.

“This report demonstrates the potential benefit of cementing our strong relationship with Britain by joining with them in a free-trade partnership,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Phil Gramm said in 2000. “I am also convinced that such a partnership would go far toward removing the trade barriers that are being built around the European Union.”

The prospect of a deal with the U.K. had been floated for decades as NAFTA came together, said Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Though talks on a U.S.-EU trade deal have encountered some opposition from Brits worried about what it will mean for their public health service, Hufbauer notes that free trade deals already have broad support in the country — an increasingly rare phenomenon in Europe.

As part of the EU, moreover, their tariffs are low and their services markets are already fairly open to foreign investment. Labor and environmental rules, which have plagued deals like the TPP with developing countries, would be simpler to negotiate because the U.S. and U.K. are more compatible, he added.

“After one lifts one’s head out of the dust and casts their gaze forward, it could be an opportune moment to make a deal with the Brits,” Hufbauer said. “If you have the U.K., Canada and the U.S., that makes an attractive package. Mexico could also take part.”

Bill Reinsch, former president of the National Foreign Trade Council who is now a fellow at the Stimson Center, is also bullish on opening negotiations with the U.K. while “reaffirming our commitment to the EU.”

“President Obama may have put [the U.K.] in the back of the queue when it comes to negotiating a trade agreement, but he should put that aside and move quickly to work out a bilateral agreement that builds on our relationship,” Reinsch said.

One roadblock that has snagged the Trans-Atlantic talks would also be an issue in a U.S.-U.K. deal –how to handle financial regulation, the U.K.’s main demand in the TTIP talks, said Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy.

The U.S. has resisted the push, both by industry and the European Commission, to include financial regulatory cooperation as part of TTIP, over worries that it could disrupt implementation of the Dodd-Frank law.

“You could argue the necessity for regulatory cooperation is less between U.K. and U.S.” than other European countries, he said in an interview. “The U.K. is far more deregulated in its approach. … But they’d still have to scope the agreement in a way that would work for the U.K., post-Brexit. Would they actually throw financial services under the bus?”

But Hufbauer thinks that after some years elapsed and the anger that propelled Sen. Bernie Sanders’ primary success has subsided, the United States would be more willing to discuss a financial regulation chapter in a free trade deal.

“I think it would be easier,” Hufbauer said. “By that time, all these Dodd-Frank hiccups will be over.”
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http://www.politico.eu/article/the-bright-side-of-brexit-us-uk-bilateral-bliss/
 
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Merkel/Hollande/Renzi to the U.K: Take your time — but don’t call us
Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin and Guy Chazan in Brussels
June 27, 2016

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French president François Hollande, German chancellor Angela Merkel and Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi​


The leaders of Germany, France and Italy on Monday decided against pressing the UK into a rapid start to its Brexit negotiations, in a move that gives London time to consider its options amid raging political and economic uncertainty.

But German chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande and Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi also rejected suggestions from Britain’s Leave campaigners for informal discussions about the break-up — putting pressure on the UK to decide alone on its next moves.

The three met in Berlin amid frantic EU-wide efforts to hammer out a response to the Brexit vote, contain the damage, and rally together the remaining member states in the face of one of the EU’s biggest crises since its foundation nearly 60 years ago.

The trio prepared the ground for a key EU summit in Brussels this week where Brexit will top the agenda and the UK will, for the first time, be excluded from part of the discussions.

The decision to give the UK time is at odds with demands from European Commission president Jean Claude Juncker and others for Britain to move quickly into formal negotiations. Ms Merkel opposes that; Mr Hollande and Mr Renzi fell in reluctantly with the chancellor’s approach, with both urging the UK to move “as fast as possible”.

“I can certainly understand that Britain now needs a certain amount of time to first analyse things,” the chancellor said, though she also warned that long delays would “not be good for the economies of both parties — the EU-27 and Great Britain.”

Her approach chimes with that suggested by British premier David Cameron, who told the House of Commons on Monday that London would not be starting formal exit procedures “at this stage”, adding: “Before we do that we need to determine the kind of relationship we want with the EU. And that is rightly something for the next prime minister and their cabinet to decide.”

However, Ms Merkel’s veto on informal talks with the UK could be a rebuff for leading Brexit campaigners seeking such contacts, including Chris Grayling, the House of Commons leader, who have tried to preserve as much flexibility as possible in the divorce negotiation.

“There’s going to be a lengthy process now. First of all an informal process . . . while we prepare our strategy, what we actually want to negotiate with our European partners, and then a formal process whereby we go through that process of negotiation.”

EU diplomats emphasised that it was not about taking revenge on the UK — nor about setting a painful precedent for other member states that might consider leaving — but about negotiating fair terms reasonably quickly. “Nobody wants uncertainty — it’s going to be toxic. Limbo is unsustainable,” one diplomat said. “[But] views have converged on a recognition that the UK needs some time. The vindictiveness is starting to dissipate even now.”

The German, French and Italian also called for a “new impulse” to revitalise the EU. They are considering common EU-wide initiatives in security, external border control, antiterrorism measures, and in boosting economic growth and employment. Recognising the disenchantment of many young Europeans with politics, they pledged to focus on youth-oriented proposals, such as educational exchanges. “We must not simply wait for what happens. We know that must not waste a single minute,” Mr Renzi said.

In a joint statement, the three leaders pledged to “concentrate on the challenges with which European are today confronted, such as worldwide migration, and new threats, especially international terrorism, which no member state can manage effectively on its own”.

The reform plans are to be discussed in outline at this week’s European summit, with concrete plans to be presented in September.

Ms Merkel, who is concerned about rallying all of the 27 post-Brexit EU members, earlier met European Council president Donald Tusk, with whom she also agreed the strategy towards the UK and for EU reform.
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d2e8ad6-3c91-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0.html#axzz4Cp6HqIxW
 
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