Economy April 2024 - March 2025 jobs revised down by 910k

cottagecheesefan

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This is the second biggest revision ever, if I am not mistaken. The biggest ever was Q2 of 2022 with over a million jobs being over estimated

It is weird that the hand picked Biden appointee to BLS vastly overestimated job growth during election years.

Weird that the democrats and media kept parroting how great the economy was despite inflation and consumer sentiment and didn’t question these numbers at all

Regardless of if it was political fraud by putting out these numbers, but it also influences interest rates with the fed, and they can’t make correct moves with phony and/or inaccurate data

Seems authoritarian and fascist to me, to put out fake numbers during election years. Right out of the authoritarian playbook





Thread in the 2022 revision

 
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cooking the books

Crazy we had an admin with a dementia president, the admin lying about all sorts of economic and other data. Admin trying to censor people, including concerned parents. All while wwaponizing the judicial system to silence opposition. I believe the term is called authoritarian breakthrough.

Thank god Trump won in the most historical comeback ever. The return of the once and future king.
 
While the preliminary revision announced Tuesday was higher than economic experts anticipated, many expected a sizable write-down. The Fed also factors in an array of metrics when setting policy — most notably inflation numbers — and board members know to bake in some leeway to account for possible changes in BLS numbers. (Fed Gov. Christopher Waller, a potential candidate to replace Powell, said in a recent speech that he expected the annual revision to eliminate around 60,000 jobs per month from the 12-month average.)

The preliminary benchmark revision was in the range that was widely expected, though toward the steeper end of that range,” said Jed Kolko, who was a Commerce undersecretary for economic affairs in the Biden administration. “We’re starting from a very large base of 160 million jobs in the economy, so even small revisions in percentage terms will be high numbers.

The BLS said the difference between the results of its routine survey and the more comprehensive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages totaled 911,000 between March 2024 and March 2025. The QCEW is primarily pulled from state administrative records tied to the unemployment insurance tax system.

According to the BLS, businesses that responded to its surveys reported higher employment numbers than indicated by the QCEW, and those that did not reply also had lower employment over that span than those that did.
 
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