Am I crazy to think that Sean will make quick work of Merab?

If for some amazingly retarded reason, the UFC puts OMalley vs Merab in the small cage, maybe due to small venue size in the Sphere... then I could see Merab effectively "swarming" the distance striker.

Other than that, I tend to think Merab is not sophisticated enough in his stand up to get Sean down cleanly, keep him there and win 3 rounds without getting hurt.

I think Sean hits him clean OFTEN, so it will be a matter of how many can Merab eat and continue to press forward and attempt to overwhelm Sean.
 
Yes.

TerraRayzing said:
The closer this fight gets, the more I think that Sean will find a quick knock out. I picked Sterling to win against Sean and was proven wrong as I thought one take down from Aljo and it was game over. O'Malley avoided that but with Merab, even if he gets taken down, it's not game over. He will get up, everyone gets up against Merab and while he chains takedowns really well, I feel that's hard to do against a striker who moves like O'Malley.
Every opponent that Merab wrestle fucked stood in front of him. Cejudo moved around in the first round and gave him problems but as soon as he stopped doing that, Merab overpowered him. I don't think Sean will stop his movement and we've seen Merab hurt before and O'Malley is the hardest hitter in the division likely.
Am I crazy?
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yeah. i fully expect the ufc to hype sean’s chances, but if merab was able to do that to petr yan, i don’t see how sean has any chance. btw, yan set the record for takedowns stuffed in that fight—he was simply overwhelmed with merab’s volume. i don’t think sean’s tdd is up to that level. i mean, he got taken down by petr yan.
 
I think the first round is really dangerous for Merab. He got clipped bad against Moraes and to a lesser extent Cejudo. If Sean hits him like that, he’ll finish the job.
 
Goutfather said:
yeah. i fully expect the ufc to hype sean’s chances, but if merab was able to do that to petr yan, i don’t see how sean has any chance. btw, yan set the record for takedowns stuffed in that fight—he was simply overwhelmed with merab’s volume. i don’t think sean’s tdd is up to that level. i mean, he got taken down by petr yan.
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Sean's movement is much better though and Merab will have to constantly chase him. Good footwork can really disrupt pressure and idk, I have a feeling Merab won't be as confident in closing the distance against Sean. The Sterling KO and the Chito beatdown have really amped up Sean's reputation as a striker.
 
Aldo barely had a height or reach advantage and he fucked Merab up on the feet.
 
TerraRayzing said:
The closer this fight gets, the more I think that Sean will find a quick knock out. I picked Sterling to win against Sean and was proven wrong as I thought one take down from Aljo and it was game over. O'Malley avoided that but with Merab, even if he gets taken down, it's not game over. He will get up, everyone gets up against Merab and while he chains takedowns really well, I feel that's hard to do against a striker who moves like O'Malley.
Every opponent that Merab wrestle fucked stood in front of him. Cejudo moved around in the first round and gave him problems but as soon as he stopped doing that, Merab overpowered him. I don't think Sean will stop his movement and we've seen Merab hurt before and O'Malley is the hardest hitter in the division likely.
Am I crazy?
Click to expand...

No.

I like Merab better as a person, but he got hit a few times, and almost dropped, by the midget Henry Cejudo.

Sean has the height + length, as well as the speed + timing, to catch Merab coming in.

Unlike Petr Yan, I don't think Merab has a great chin, so his lack of durability may cost him in this match.

If Merab wins, it will be a boring fight.

The question is will O'Malley catch him?

If he doesn't, Merab may melt O'Malley over time.

If he does, he may face-plant Dvalishvili.
 
I think Sean is very live in this spot. Merab has a bad habit of getting clipped early on the feet by fast, explosive strikers. Moraes and Cejudo -- both shopworn -- managed to pull it off. While Merab showed incredible grit to push through adversity in those spots, the implications of Sean getting that same opportunity are way worse. Suga is rangier with superior timing & selection along with plenty of power.

Furthermore, while Aljo had the benefit of potentially just needing to get the fight down one time in order to start threatening fight-ending submissions or GnP, Merab has no such ability. His top game is, at best mediocre. So he'll have to remain defensively sound against a knockout threat long enough to drown him with his relentless pace, which is easier said than done... but very much doable. What Merab did against Yan was incredible.

I could see it going either way.
 
Not crazy, Merab gets rocked in every fight and Sean is the best striker with the most power he will have faced. I think Merab is a rightful favorite because of his relentless grappling, but will be 0% shocked if O'malley can avoid the grappling for 1 or 1.5 rounds and find a solid KO inside of that time.

Likelihood for me:
1) Merab by Decision - 48%
2) O'Malley by KO - 42%
3) Everything Else - 10% Probably Omalley by decision, then Omalley by sub, then Merab by KO, then Merab by Sub.
 
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Chinny grappler with no finishing ability vs precision striker with KO power and underrated takedown defence

It'll be over in 2 IMO
 
TerraRayzing said:
Sean's movement is much better though and Merab will have to constantly chase him. Good footwork can really disrupt pressure and idk, I have a feeling Merab won't be as confident in closing the distance against Sean. The Sterling KO and the Chito beatdown have really amped up Sean's reputation as a striker.
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i was quite pleased that he beat sterling, but sterling fought in the stupidest way possible against him. sean’s best asset is his striking, it’s not good enough to carry him. and if yan’s striking wasn’t enough to deter or nullify merab’s td attempts, what can sean do? he’s going have to catch him with a knee coming in, or pray that merab wants to stand and bang.
 
Goutfather said:
yeah. i fully expect the ufc to hype sean’s chances, but if merab was able to do that to petr yan, i don’t see how sean has any chance. btw, yan set the record for takedowns stuffed in that fight—he was simply overwhelmed with merab’s volume. i don’t think sean’s tdd is up to that level. i mean, he got taken down by petr yan.
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The knees and ability to inflict damage should really have Merab nervous as the ones he landed on Yan and Chito were nasty violent and both were fucked up after it was over. Also, if you look at his record and past fights, its hard to rationalize the Aldo KO was "just a lucky shot". I think Merab get's slaughtered as he is not violent enough to really be a threat to Sean when he gets taken (which I am sure will happen) but really vulnerable when standing and shooting.
 
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