The difference between Aspinall and Ankalaev is that Tom is a dangerous submission threat. Ankalaev is not. He's never subbed anyone in a pro bout. If the gameplan is to purely wrestle Alex he's going to have to do it for 25 minutes.
Not it he does it in the first round. When he did that, he was already tired from striking. He had his legs very hurt vs Jan, so he wasn't fresh anymore. If he shoots immediately, then he can get it done in the first round
There's a lot of risk here because if he wrestles and doesn't get Alex out of there, being gassed and having to stand with Alex is a terrible spot to be in whether that's round 3, 4, or 5.
I doubt Aspinall was too serious when he said this lol.
He wouldn't be the only one gassed...
He seemed to be legit serious. Later he said Alex is the most dangerous MMA striker he has ever seen, and that there is no way he wouldn't try to get him to the ground. He said he'd trust in his takedown but it's risky because he also said that he knows Alex is a fast learner and is getting better at defending takedowns... That's why he said it'd be a very dangerous match for him. Tom is way more of a BJJ, he isn't a typical wrestler like JJ and Ankalaev, who have both way easier time in getting take downs.
For what it's worth, while Tom isn't a wrestler he has a 100% TD accuracy in the UFC. Ankalaev has a 31% TD accuracy. Looking at Magomed's stats, he's only had 10 takedowns in his 14 UFC fights.
Just watched the vid. He was laughing when he said it.
..and honestly I think Alex anti wrestling game is pretty decent, if he has a weakness its that he gives submission openings when he's getting back up.
That's why Jones is a terrible fight for Poatan, while Ankalaev will be a walk in the park, you have a good grappling eye.
He was not laughing. He was serious and seemed kinda intense. He laughed about the interviewer saying "spear him". He has already said Alex is the best striker in MMA and Alex's punches are heavier than Aspinall's even with the LHW physiche. Curtis Blaydes also said the first thing he'd do is go for the takedown vs Alex... So yeah, Alex is better in striking alone than Tom. Tom better hope he manages to get the takedown effective, otherwise I'd bet Alex would bounce his head out of the canvas.
All fights he could win in striking alone. If he needs wrestling, he will use his wrestling. And it's not like a wrestler can't do damage if they don't try to submit. Anakalaev with his legs toasted still managed to stay dominant on top of Jan... He is really dangerous in wrestling.My favorite stats to copy + paste
Ankalaev Grappling Stats:
1 TD per fight on average, 30% TD accuracy
2/10 against Jan.
1/4 against mighty wrestler Volkan Oezdimir.
1/2 against post-exploded-knees Thiago Santos.
1/3 against Klidson Abreu (who???)
1/3 against Dalcha Lungiambula (literally who?)
Got taken down by Paul Craig, twice, then submitted.
That's why Jones is a terrible fight for Poatan, while Ankalaev will be a walk in the park, you have a good grappling eye.
Half this forum is going to be crying about "Wait, why didnt Ank try harder to get a TD? He's dagestani!" when he stands in front of Poatan and gets fucking blasted. That will of course lead to Poatan still being "untested against a wrestler."
He didn't look worse than Rakić, he just didn't want to wrestle because he knew he didn't need to wrestle to beat Rakić. Alex is a dff story... He may have a slight chance if he strikes only, maybe he could win if he caught Alex with a good set up, but if he goes wrestling mode from the get go..... That's gonna be hard....
How many fights did Tom go for the sub? Btw Tom may be good at subbing, but he is not known to have an elite take down... Guys like JJ, Anakalaev, etc are way better in takedowns. He's more like a Charles Oliveira (less skilled in BJJ ofc). We don't know if he has a good takedown. Maybe his takedown isn't that hard to defend against for guys that train takedown defense a lot. A wrestler is way better for take downs. Aspinall is not a wrestler.
Specially if he wrestles
he literally waited til jan took his legs away before he started using his wrestling
