Elections 2016 Iowa Caucus Thread

[Max Power]

Why is this muy importante? Iowa is a sparsely populated state that is known for corn, pigs, college wrestling. And only two of those things really matter.

And:

 

[Lead]

Yup.

Rubio's the GOP's only hope. And unless he pulls an incredible comeback, he's not winning. I've been saying it for months now: it's Hillary vs Bernie for the presidency.

So you're saying Bernie beats Rubio in a GE?

 

[Fatt Hughes]

An omen?

 

[speakhandsforme]

So you're saying Bernie beats Rubio in a GE?

Yes.

Rubio is the GOP's only chance, but it's a very good chance should he somehow right the ship. He's been seriously impressive compared to how unrefined he was only a few years ago.

 

[Mondo Freaks]

CNN says Hilary and Trump dont want too many people. Why?

 

[Quipling]

CNN says Hilary and Trump dont want too many people. Why?

Generally, the more people, the less the caucus results resemble recent polling. Since both of them are winning recent polls, they'd prefer the results to be as close to those polls as possible.

(there's an additional factor: the more people, the more 'first-time voters' will participate, but that benefits trump, even if it doesn't benefit hillary directly.

 

[speakhandsforme]

CNN says Hilary and Trump dont want too many people. Why?

You mean they don't want too much turnout?

It makes sense for both. Hillary's constituents, older folks, are the most likely to come out regardless, so a low voter turnout would seemingly favor her, whereas an influx of new and young voters would seem to favor Sanders.

Trump is framing himself as a populist, so I'm hesitant to reason that logic, besides the point that there is a rabid dogma among his supporters that would lead me to believe that they'd go through fire and brimstone to cast their vote, whereas other less passionate supporters of other candidates might not. That's the only way I can reason that.

 

[KOQ24]

CNN says Hilary and Trump dont want too many people. Why?

More people means more young voters.Bernie beats Hillary 70-30 among young voters.
Trump would likely benefit from higher turnout because Cruz relies on winning tiny rural districts

 

[Oedad]

CNN says Hilary and Trump dont want too many people. Why?

They are saying Trump wants a high turnout, and as many first timers as possible.

See above why Hillary wants the opposite.

 

[Unknown Pleasures]

Hopefully Carson and Fiorina fuck off after tonight.

 

[MANIAC123]

Apparently Carson's campaign is to 'take a break' after tonight.

 

[Fatt Hughes]

Huge to record breaking turnouts at caucus sites. Reports of significant changes from democrat to republican with intentions to vote for Trump.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

So you're saying Bernie beats Rubio in a GE?

I think it'd be a toss up.

Rubio could take it if he reaches for the center in smart way. Bernie rolls over Trump and Cruz.

 

[carlos cadona]

Apparently Carson's campaign is to 'take a break' after tonight.

The fact that he was once front runner for a short period of time is crazy.

 

[Fawlty]

I know Iowa is notoriously bad at picking winners, but a big win by Trump is a meaningful result imo. I can't articulate why I believe this, but it feels like the truth. Whereas a close win for either Cruz or Rubio is basically meaningless.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Hopefully Carson and Fiorina fuck off after tonight.

After a year of speculation, polls, and hype, we're going to get the results of actual votes.

In the end, votes are all that matters.

 

[Lead]

The people coming to this place "undecided" are either seriously challenged or just want attention for people to try to convince them. The CNN footage makes this whole thing look sad.

 

[theBLADE1]

Results are just now starting to trickle in.

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Also live coverage of the caucuses by TYT

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I know Iowa is notoriously bad at picking winners, but a big win by Trump is a meaningful result imo. I can't articulate why I believe this, but it feels like the truth. Whereas a close win for either Cruz or Rubio is basically meaningless.

Hopefully, after tonight, you'll still be notoriously bad at picking winners.

Did you pick Bader?

 

[Lead]

CNN reporting less than 1% with Trump and Cruz in the thirties and no one else close.