Elections 2016 Iowa Caucus Thread

[Lead]

FiveThirtyEights Democratic Forecast
FiveThirtyEights Republican Forecast

Real Clear Politics Democratic Polling Average
Real Clear Politics Republican Polling Average

 

[Lead]

Quite a few drops outs should occur after this. Huckabee I believe said he needed to finish at least fourth. Carson may have had a similar expectation. Who knows what other fringe candidates like Santorum, Gilmore and Fiorina will do. The establishment likely will ignore this race so Christie, Jeb, Kasich and Rubio all will stay in. Rubio has made a big attempt to finish third in Iowa to give him momentum as the leading establishment position in NH.

Unsure when O'Malley considers dropping out if at all during this race. Bigger question is can Bernie win the first two states. He really needs Iowa to have hope.

 

[Fatt Hughes]

There's no outs for Huck with a 4th finish. As the primary take full swing, he heads into less favorable states. I believe he saw the writing on the wall, a lil more so than Santorum, and gave a slight underhand pitch towards the Donald on Thurs. I wouldn't doubt he drops after Iowa, and throws whatever support the has towards Trump.

Fiorina has no shot. She'll drop and endorse either Rubio or Bush.
Carson would drop. Endorse will be courted by Cruz (if placed 1st) or Trump.
Santorum likely Trump.

A Bernie win would be huge, and combined with a N.H. win could help make the case for viability in the southern states, where Hillary is more solid.

 

[Lead]

There's no outs for Huck with a 4th finish. As the primary take full swing, he heads into less favorable states. I believe he saw the writing on the wall, a lil more so than Santorum, and gave a slight underhand pitch towards the Donald on Thurs. I wouldn't doubt he drops after Iowa, and throws whatever support the has towards Trump.

Fiorina has no shot. She'll drop and endorse either Rubio or Bush.
Carson would drop. Endorse will be courted by Cruz (if placed 1st) or Trump.
Santorum likely Trump.

A Bernie win would be huge, and combined with a N.H. win could help make the case for viability in the southern states, where Hillary is more solid.

I'm just saying what Huckabee said. If I were him, I would've already dropped out but he seems to think 4th is enough. Heck, I guess if he did get 4th that would be a huge surge in general but still. Point is a lot of the evangelical undercard guys are going to drop like flies after tomorrow.

 

[JohnnySagebrush]

I no longer live in Iowa, but my dear Grandma got one of these in the mail from Ted Cruz:
http://gawker.com/ted-cruzs-ludicrous-voter-shaming-mailer-strategy-is-a-1756235951
She's pissed, and had planned on speaking for him at their Caucus. She's now changed her mind and doesn't know who she will support. I'm not sure why she got one of these, as she had attended every caucus and voted in every election since time immemorial (always straight republican, lol).

Anyways, this campaign mailer kind of surprised me and seems tone deaf on the Cruz campaign's part.

 

[Lead]

I no longer live in Iowa, but my dear Grandma got one of these in the mail from Ted Cruz:
http://gawker.com/ted-cruzs-ludicrous-voter-shaming-mailer-strategy-is-a-1756235951
She's pissed, and had planned on speaking for him at their Caucus. She's now changed her mind and doesn't know who she will support. I'm not sure why she got one of these, as she had attended every caucus and voted in every election since time immemorial (always straight republican, lol).

Anyways, this campaign mailer kind of surprised me and seems tone deaf on the Cruz campaign's part.

Read an article on that but couldn't find it again to post here. Lot of shady stuff happens right before these. That one is pretty sad and may backfire hard on him.

 

[Fatt Hughes]

Cruz is not apologizing for that mailer. He said it's within his duty to do whatever it take to increase voter turn out.

 

[Lead]

Cruz is not apologizing for that mailer. He said it's within his duty to do whatever it take to increase voter turn out.

I feel like he should assume higher voter turnout from those who don't follow politics would result in more Trump voters. It's kinda a bad move on his part.

 

[Handsomebwonderfull]

Quite a few drops outs should occur after this. Huckabee I believe said he needed to finish at least fourth. Carson may have had a similar expectation. Who knows what other fringe candidates like Santorum, Gilmore and Fiorina will do. The establishment likely will ignore this race so Christie, Jeb, Kasich and Rubio all will stay in. Rubio has made a big attempt to finish third in Iowa to give him momentum as the leading establishment position in NH.

Unsure when O'Malley considers dropping out if at all during this race. Bigger question is can Bernie win the first two states. He really needs Iowa to have hope.

Hucks lining himself up to be trumps vp

 

[Lead]

Hucks lining himself up to be trumps vp

Just cause someone sucks up to him doesn't mean he will become it. What does bringing Huckabee on board accomplish for Trump in the GE? Nothing.

 

[Handsomebwonderfull]

Just cause someone sucks up to him doesn't mean he will become it. What does bringing Huckabee on board accomplish for Trump in the GE? Nothing.

That's not true at all. Lol. At all. C'mon man.

 

[gspieler]

Us Iowans will feel the Bern.

 

[Fatt Hughes]

IMO, Huck may be looking for a cabinet position, but not sure if VP may be it.

 

[Handsomebwonderfull]

IMO, Huck may be looking for a cabinet position, but not sure if VP may be it.

Maybe. That or Santorum. Trump needs gravitas and someone to appeal to the extreme religious right and old people to have a shot. So get an old churchy guy from the south. Maybe Carson but he's black and horrible at speaking. Not good for old white people. Hill dog will tap Castro to get the Hispanic demographic which will scare old white people (they took Mir jobs).

Republicans have to monopolize the old cracker vote to even have a shot at the White House.

 

[Lead]

That's not true at all. Lol. At all. C'mon man.

He's poling at 2% in national GOP primary polls and comes from a state that will already be red in the GE. Explain some reasons he would help Trump compared to a ton of other people more popular in the party/general public and in swing states?

IMO, Huck may be looking for a cabinet position, but not sure if VP may be it.

He's looking for anything at all to stay relevant. He likely will just go back to his Fox show if they even want him back. Him and Santorum are those politicians who leave and still want to attention. I mean, Santorum hasn't done anything since 2012. These guys make money through running for offices they aren;t going to win.

 

[theBLADE1]

I don't see how anyone thinks Ted Cruz is going to overtake Donald Trump. To me it seems like an assumption based off of people thinking that most of his supporters aren't actually going to turn out for him and that's false.

I think the same thing of Bernie Sanders as well. If you look at the rallies that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump put on and the amount of people that show up, it's pure whimsy to believe that they're not going to turn out on election day. I don't care if it's technically a "scientific" opinion or not. Trump is going to win in a landslide, and Sanders is going to make it extremely competitive.

 

[K1levelgrappler]

Cruz is not apologizing for that mailer. He said it's within his duty to do whatever it take to increase voter turn out.

Somebody should send Ted Cruz a human decency violation.

Dear Ted Cruz, you are receiving this notice because you're an awful piece of shit. To improve your score please kill yourself by Monday. A follow up notice may be issued if you fail to kill yourself by Monday.

 

[Lead]

Maybe. That or Santorum. Trump needs gravitas and someone to appeal to the extreme religious right and old people to have a shot. So get an old churchy guy from the south. Maybe Carson but he's black and horrible at speaking. Not good for old white people. Hill dog will tap Castro to get the Hispanic demographic which will scare old white people (they took Mir jobs).

Republicans have to monopolize the old cracker vote to even have a shot at the White House.

Uhh, not even close. The GOP needs to pick VPs that appeal to evangelicals and old white people?! Karl Rove is on sherdog everyone.

But from an electoral map and demographic perspective, Huckabee is a horrible choice. If you are picking a white guy, you would be smart to pick someone the establishment could back while also playing a role in a key swing state. Someone like Kasich but that isn't likely for a lot of reasons. Trump would be smart to pick a woman or Hispanic since the GOP has plenty qualified politicians for that role. It's silly to be thinking VP spots for Trump at this point though.

 

[Handsomebwonderfull]

He's poling at 2% in national GOP primary polls and comes from a state that will already be red in the GE. Explain some reasons he would help Trump compared to a ton of other people more popular in the party/general public and in swing states?



He's looking for anything at all to stay relevant. He likely will just go back to his Fox show if they even want him back. Him and Santorum are those politicians who leave and still want to attention. I mean, Santorum hasn't done anything since 2012. These guys make money through running for offices they aren;t going to win.

Already explAined it in the post above but in summary

Trump needs to secure old white religious people.

Also Who cares about 2% gop primary polling for the presidency and coming from a red state when considering the Vice President? Lol. That's completely pointless.

 

[Lead]

I don't see how anyone thinks Ted Cruz is going to overtake Donald Trump. To me it seems like an assumption based off of people thinking that most of his supporters aren't actually going to turn out for him and that's false.

I think the same thing of Bernie Sanders as well. If you look at the rallies that Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump put on and the amount of people that show up, it's pure whimsy to believe that they're not going to turn out on election day. I don't care if it's technically a "scientific" opinion or not. Trump is going to win in a landslide, and Sanders is going to make it extremely competitive.

There's a lot of subjectivity in that assumption. Part of it likely is true but heres a good reason you can't just take little facts like this and come out with a definitive answer. Most of the campaigns sell tickets to their events and will let people know when they reached their full capacity for where the event is at. Trump doesn't do this at all. They will actually sell tickets (whether free or not) to events they know can't fill the build and then don't choose to let their supporters to know. Sure it looks great for TV with the large crowds but ultimately it can be somewhat misleading and also kinda slimy on their part.

Polling and predictions favor Trump. Silver, Wang, and Selzer all have Trump winning Iowa. That's something much more feasible to latch onto.