Elections 2016 Iowa Caucus Thread

Who wins from each party's Iowa Caucus? (Two options for each party)

  • Hillary Clinton (D)

    Votes: 26 47.3%

  • Bernie Sanders (D)

    Votes: 22 40.0%

  • Martin O'Malley (D)

    Votes: 1 1.8%

  • Donald Trump (..R)

    Votes: 35 63.6%

  • Ted Cruz (R)

    Votes: 11 20.0%

  • Marco Rubio (R)

    Votes: 4 7.3%

  • Jeb Bush (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Ben Carson (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Chris Christie (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Rand Paul (R)

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Carly Fiorina (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Rick Santorum (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Mike Huckabee (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • John Kasich (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Jim Gilmore (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
Trump loses in the GE, period. I don't even see the point in discussing it. People backing him want the GOP to lose.
 
Why is this muy importante? Iowa is a sparsely populated state that is known for corn, pigs, college wrestling. And only two of those things really matter.
 
Only three candidates have won Iowa and the presidency. Jimmy Carter, W., and Obama.
 
Trump has a very narrow goal post compared to other candidates. If he loses, places 2nd. It'll be spun as an electoral rebuke of his candidacy and appeal, and those supporting him in N.H. S.C., and Nevada should really reconsider his viability as a general election candidate.

If Trump wins: It was expected, however Marco Rubio had a very strong showing at 2nd or 3rd, thus demonstrating that there is a demand for a more "sensible" established candidate, other establishment candidates should drop and support Rubio, and those that are undecided in the follow up states should reconsider Trumps appeal in the G.E. and support Rubio.

Trump understands Iowa's history of not picking the G.E. candidates. He's said this pretty much every stump speech in Iowa. He'd like to win (who wouldn't?), but understands the follow up states are where things heat up and true appeal is selected.

I maintain that if Trump wins, he runs the table, despite the spin of a surging estabo candidate. The Rubio camp knows this, which is why this weekend, their strategy was to push Cruz as frontrunner and not mention Trump at all, in hopes that it places in peoples minds the inevitability of a Cruz win, and with a strong showing of Rubio in 2nd or 3rd. They understand and are aware that a Trump victory is game over not just for Cruz, but all the candidates.
 
The last polls covering this weekend show Rubio surging. Might not be enough to pass to second but who really knows at this point. Quinnipac shows a clear seven point difference between the top three and Emerson and opinion survey show them all within five points of each other.
 
Fatt Hughes said:
Trump has a very narrow goal post compared to other candidates. If he loses, places 2nd. It'll be spun as an electoral rebuke of his candidacy and appeal, and those supporting him in N.H. S.C., and Nevada should really reconsider his viability as a general election candidate.

If Trump wins: It was expected, however Marco Rubio had a very strong showing at 2nd or 3rd, thus demonstrating that there is a demand for a more "sensible" established candidate, other establishment candidates should drop and support Rubio, and those that are undecided in the follow up states should reconsider Trumps appeal in the G.E. and support Rubio.

Trump understands Iowa's history of not picking the G.E. candidates. He's said this pretty much every stump speech in Iowa. He'd like to win (who wouldn't?), but understands the follow up states are where things heat up and true appeal is selected.

I maintain that if Trump wins, he runs the table, despite the spin of a surging estabo candidate. The Rubio camp knows this, which is why this weekend, their strategy was to push Cruz as frontrunner and not mention Trump at all, in hopes that it places in peoples minds the inevitability of a Cruz win, and with a strong showing of Rubio in 2nd or 3rd. They understand and are aware that a Trump victory is game over not just for Cruz, but all the candidates.
Click to expand...

If Rubio strategy was to help Cruz get Iowa, he sure messed up in the last debate doing that.

Also, the surge isn't spin. Look at the polls on real clear politics. Rubio is surging. It looks like it might be not in time to win the state but he definitely narrowed the wider margin he had between trump and Cruz in the past weeks and is at the highest numbers in the state since announcing.
 
Also, Rubio and Trump may have played the best with the expectation game for Iowa. Cruz didn't but imo, Iowa really is crucial to him so he can't really try to play down not getting it. I know he has a lot set up for Super Tuesday but if you don't win before that, historically it isn't likely you will suddenly have success that day regardless of the network you have in place
 
Posted this in Repub Primary thread, meant to post here. Not sure why Jeb is wasting time in Iowa. It's ova for him here.

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I honestly think that Cruz is a worse candidate than Trump.
 
I think Huck will make a good VP, kind got that good cop bad cop vibe
 
^^Because he actually believes his ridiculous ideas and is actually intelligent enough to cause harm with his ideas.
 
KOQ24 said:
they dont even start until 8pm right?
Click to expand...

Bush told people 7pm but that might be to make sure they get there in time. It's definitely later in the evening, 7 or 8ish.
 
Lead Salad said:
Trump loses in the GE, period. I don't even see the point in discussing it. People backing him want the GOP to lose.
Click to expand...

Yup.

Rubio's the GOP's only hope. And unless he pulls an incredible comeback, he's not winning. I've been saying it for months now: it's Hillary vs Bernie for the presidency.
 
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