Elections 2016 Iowa Caucus Thread

Who wins from each party's Iowa Caucus? (Two options for each party)

  • Jeb Bush (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ben Carson (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Chris Christie (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Carly Fiorina (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Rick Santorum (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Mike Huckabee (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • John Kasich (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Jim Gilmore (R)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
I see LOL! All I'm saying is you can't ever underestimate galvanized young voters who support their candidate. That's why Barack Won it big in 2008, Because he ran on a message of hope and change against Hillary Clinton, and now Bernie Sanders is running on a platform of hope and change against Hillary Clinton. He talks about his support at rallies in this video and is asking his supporters to prove the pundits wrong.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bern...n-slapped-email-controversy/story?id=36617226

And I hate Donald Trump with the same passion but I've accepted that he is going to win on the Republican side.

Obama's Iowa win was actually called correctly by Selzer. I don't want to compared Obama and Bernie though cause their entirely different candidates with different policies. Also, Obama came into the primary with much more support with blacks than Bernie who is still trying to make up before post-NH. Also, young voters usually are the worst demographic to rely on for getting you over the top for an election. I haven't looked at the data but I'm sure whatever changes you saw with young voters with Obama likely was more due to young minority voters. That's just a generational thing the GOP is slowly realizing. They lose the younth vote because the minority percentage is different. You can win the white vote with youth and still lose in this category (ask Romney)

youth_vote.png


Also, I know Bernie isn't Paul but this is an example of courting the youth vote first and other demographics second

imrs.php
 
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Hucks lining himself up to be trumps vp
Dumb move for Trump. Huckabee is a God Warrior and would turn off moderates. Him parading that fucking hypocrite, Kim Davis around, turns off moderates.
Trump or Cruz do not need the God Warrior vote. The only way they would vote for Hildawg or if Feel the Bern(he wins only if Hildawg gets arrested) is if Jesus himself told them too and even then they would not like it.
The VP for Duck Trump or Canadian Cruz needs to be a conservative moderate. Kasich would be perfect for either one. Kasich can handle himself in any debate, his foreign policy experience is 2nd to none, and he does not come off as crazy. Kasich is still a religious dude so you won't lose the God Warriors.
That shill Huckabee would be a net loss in votes. There is a reason, Huckabee is at the B team debate. This is not 2008 anymore and Shuckabee's ship has sailed.
 
I voted for Bernie and Trump to win the Iowa caucus. Trump can still own Iowa and still loose the nomination that happens basically every year with the Republicans. For Democrats, since 1988 only like twice has the Iowa caucus winner not gone on to be the nominee.

I think Bernie has a legit shot to win Iowa and I think he will win New Hampshire but lose South Carolina and Nevada and lose on Super Tuesday. I think Trump will either win it all or he will eventually fade and lose to Rubio on Supertuesday. I don't think Cruz can pull ahead of Trump unless Trump really drops the ball and Cruz makes himself way more appealing. As far as appeal goes though, Rubio seems to be the more 'moderate' and likable guy. I will be shocked if Hillary wins Iowa convincingly.
 
Obama's Iowa win was actually called correctly by Selzer. I don't want to compared Obama and Bernie though cause their entirely different candidates with different policies. Also, Obama came into the primary with much more support with blacks than Bernie who is still trying to make up before post-NH. Also, young voters usually are the worst demographic to rely on for getting you over the top for an election. I haven't looked at the data but I'm sure whatever changes you saw with young voters with Obama likely was more due to young minority voters. That's just a generational thing the GOP is slowly realizing. They lose the younth vote because the minority percentage is different. You can win the white vote with youth and still lose in this category (ask Romney)

youth_vote.png


Also, I know Bernie isn't Paul but this is an example of courting the youth vote first and other demographics second

imrs.php

Obama was also different because he was Hillary Clinton (without an Iraq war yes vote) and a more 'squeaky' clean image. Until the 'socialist' and his connections to 'socialists' came out. Obama, also had a lot more endorsements by delegates, Senators, Representatives, states legislators, governors, etc. If I recall and read correctly Obama had way more money and a much larger operation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...85377e-2b37-11e5-bd33-395c05608059_story.html

^^ This piece argues why they are different. Mentioning that Obama did not play the 'challenger' role by challenging a candidate to be more and more left leaning and hence allowed Obama to expand his base. He ran a less ideological campaign which again widely expanded his base.

"Sanders’s campaign is growing rapidly, but even with new field offices opening fast, it’s still less than half the size of Obama’s organization at a similar juncture in our race: In July 2007, Obama had 80 paid staffers working in 25 offices in Iowa. Obama was able to raise more early money for his campaign; that, coupled with his potential to make history as the nation’s first black president, attracted a very experienced set of advisors with deep knowledge of how to run a sophisticated operation. While Sanders has decided to play the role of the liberal challenger to Clinton, pushing her to the left at every opportunity, Obama ran a much less ideological campaign, which allowed him to build a broader base of support from the outset.

If 2008 is not the best parallel for Sanders vs. Clinton, what is? Probably the 2000 contest between Vice President Al Gore and Bill Bradley. That contest, like this one, was about who would get a chance to succeed a two-term Democratic president. That contest, like this one, was essentially a two-person race (though this could change in the coming months). And in that contest, like this one, the Democratic Party was looking to redefine itself for a new era. Bradley made a surprisingly strong challenge to a sitting vice president, forcing Gore to shake up his campaign, move his headquarters from D.C. to Nashville and retool his entire effort. Ultimately, though, Bradley could not broaden his base of support, and he ended up losing all 50 states to Gore."
 
Polls are saying Hillary and Trump, but polls have been historically inaccurate in predicting the winners.

Going with Cruz and Bernie.
 
Polls are saying Hillary and Trump, but polls have been historically inaccurate in predicting the winners.

Going with Cruz and Bernie.

Selzer has been pretty accruate since 88, only getting one wrong and that one even showed the winning candidate was surging right before. RCP seemed pretty clear in 2012 as well what was going on.
 
Selzer has been pretty accruate since 88, only getting one wrong and that one even showed the winning candidate was surging right before. RCP seemed pretty clear in 2012 as well what was going on.

The one they got wrong was in 2012, the most recent, but it was by the slimmest of margins.

Also, the polls had Santorum in 3rd in the days prior. Though I can't recall how many points they were off by. 2012's and todays polls are still done over landlines.

Ill admit to a little wishful thinking influenced my prediction. But Iowa has historically gone with the most religious and conservative candidate.

I think we put too much stock in good/bad debate performances this cycle. Trump hasn't rocketed to the frontrunner status because of the debates, and they haven't hurt him even when he doesn't attend. Same with Cruz's so-so performance on Thursday.

Oh, one more thing I'll put a prediction on. IF Cruz comes in 3rd, that'll kill any chance he has of being nominated.
 
I think Trump and Clinton. I know Bernie has the crowds, but will they show up?
 
The one they got wrong was in 2012, the most recent, but it was by the slimmest of margins.

Also, the polls had Santorum in 3rd in the days prior. Though I can't recall how many points they were off by. 2012's and todays polls are still done over landlines.

Ill admit to a little wishful thinking influenced my prediction. But Iowa has historically gone with the most religious and conservative candidate.

I think we put too much stock in good/bad debate performances this cycle. Trump hasn't rocketed to the frontrunner status because of the debates, and they haven't hurt him even when he doesn't attend. Same with Cruz's so-so performance on Thursday.

Oh, one more thing I'll put a prediction on. IF Cruz comes in 3rd, that'll kill any chance he has of being nominated.

Even with RCP, you could see Santorum was surging just like Perry Bachman Cain and he was going to garner more support than Romney's consistent following. The other ones were dead on. I will say with there being multiple candidates and it tight between Trump and Cruz, it's likely this is a race that could be off from final polling. However, polls in Iowa aren't historically wrong. That was the point I was trying to make.
 
Obama was also different because he was Hillary Clinton (without an Iraq war yes vote) and a more 'squeaky' clean image. Until the 'socialist' and his connections to 'socialists' came out. Obama, also had a lot more endorsements by delegates, Senators, Representatives, states legislators, governors, etc. If I recall and read correctly Obama had way more money and a much larger operation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...85377e-2b37-11e5-bd33-395c05608059_story.html

^^ This piece argues why they are different. Mentioning that Obama did not play the 'challenger' role by challenging a candidate to be more and more left leaning and hence allowed Obama to expand his base. He ran a less ideological campaign which again widely expanded his base.

"Sanders’s campaign is growing rapidly, but even with new field offices opening fast, it’s still less than half the size of Obama’s organization at a similar juncture in our race: In July 2007, Obama had 80 paid staffers working in 25 offices in Iowa. Obama was able to raise more early money for his campaign; that, coupled with his potential to make history as the nation’s first black president, attracted a very experienced set of advisors with deep knowledge of how to run a sophisticated operation. While Sanders has decided to play the role of the liberal challenger to Clinton, pushing her to the left at every opportunity, Obama ran a much less ideological campaign, which allowed him to build a broader base of support from the outset.

If 2008 is not the best parallel for Sanders vs. Clinton, what is? Probably the 2000 contest between Vice President Al Gore and Bill Bradley. That contest, like this one, was about who would get a chance to succeed a two-term Democratic president. That contest, like this one, was essentially a two-person race (though this could change in the coming months). And in that contest, like this one, the Democratic Party was looking to redefine itself for a new era. Bradley made a surprisingly strong challenge to a sitting vice president, forcing Gore to shake up his campaign, move his headquarters from D.C. to Nashville and retool his entire effort. Ultimately, though, Bradley could not broaden his base of support, and he ended up losing all 50 states to Gore."

Yea, like I said, they aren't the same candidates and there are many reasons to show that to be true.
 
Even with RCP, you could see Santorum was surging just like Perry Bachman Cain and he was going to garner more support than Romney's consistent following. The other ones were dead on. I will say with there being multiple candidates and it tight between Trump and Cruz, it's likely this is a race that could be off from final polling. However, polls in Iowa aren't historically wrong. That was the point I was trying to make.

If you're right, I'll give you props.

If I'm right, you give me props.
 
Donald Trump Starts to Consider an Iowa Loss
By Jon Herskovitz
January 29, 2016 5:36 PM

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'Unless I win, I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful—and, by the way, a very expensive—waste of time'

Heading into the final days before Iowa’s caucuses, Republican front-runner Donald Trump warned supporters that his months of headline-grabbing antics could be for naught if they do not show up Monday night.

“You have to get out there and caucus, or we’ve all wasted our time,” Trump said on a tarmac, speaking to supporters who stood in a cold airplane hangar for hours to see the former Apprentice star. It was a rare suggestion from the billionaire that he might not be invincible and might well not become the GOP nominee.

“Unless I win, I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful—and, by the way, a very expensive—waste of time,” Trump said. “If I don’t win, maybe bad things happen.”

Should he come up short to rival Ted Cruz, who has taken a more traditional approach at organizing in Iowa, Trump already has his talking point ready. “You haven’t had a winner in 16 years. You pick people. What are you doing?”

Trump ticked through his polling leads in other early nominating states, a favorite feature at his rallies. Such numbers have eluded him in Iowa, though. “I’m thinking about buying a farm. Is your farm for sale?” he asked voters.

In his signature style, Trump guided a couple hundred Iowans—and more watching on television and online—through what the world would like under a President Trump. He would stiff the Iranians (“the Persians are great negotiators”) and would beat Beijing (“I love the Chinese”). Trump said the Republican Party in Washington is a “basket case” and his rivals for the GOP’s nomination are weaklings. “Why am I even talking about him? He’s at 2% in the polls,” Trump mocked former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

“Ted Cruz. He was not born on U.S. soil. It’s a problem. He has to solve that problem. … He was a Canadian citizen until 15 months ago. How the hell can he run for President?” He kept hammering Cruz on errors on his financial disclosure forms. “Frankly, he might not have the right to serve as President of the United States.” (Cruz was born in Canada to an American mother; most scholars agree that his birthplace alone will not be what keeps him from the White House.)

And he mocked Sen. Marco Rubio’s weak support in his home state of Florida. “Marco Rubio. He’s at a 11,” Trump said. It was typical fare from the businessman, but the crowds still love it.

True to form, Trump also kept his feud with Fox News, whose debate he skipped on Thursday night in protest. “They weren’t treating me right,” Trump said. He gloated that Fox’s ratings were lower than earlier debates.

“They did about half the number they should have,” Trump said. “It was a lousy debate. Boring. It was hard to watch. If I was there, you would have liked it.”

In a new pitch, Trump also promised to cancel the Pentagon’s contract to replace Air Force One, the presidential jet. “It does seem like an awful lot of money,” Trump said, standing in front of his own custom jet, “a beautiful Boeing. I love Boeing.”

Trump said the contract for the new airliner should be renegotiated. “I guarantee you we can do better,” Trump said, opening his rally with an issue that has seldom been voters’ concerns.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-starts-consider-iowa-213201062.html
 
If Liberals want to assure another Democratic presidency they should seriously be supporting Sanders

12661843_1119326514767702_9147306007359504783_n.jpg
 
And this is supposed to be relevant, how?

Because generally Sanders is doing better against Trump and most early voting states. I would imagine it's probably that way in other states as well.
 
Because generally Sanders is doing better against Trump and most early voting states. I would imagine it's probably that way in other states as well.

You say most early voting states, but that's just one, which is a deep blue state anyway that hasn't gone red in a Presidential election in a very long time.

And New Hampshire is very close to Vermont, which is so crazy they've actually elected Bernie Sanders as their Senator a few times over.

If Trump or Cruz had close polling numbers in NH, THAT'D be worth posting.

Edit - And just to add to my point, solid red states are going to go red, as are the blue ones. What is interesting is which way would the purple states go, like Florida and Ohio.

And perhaps why MSNBC isn't putting those state polls on-screen, is because they're not to favorable to their narriative.
 
You say most early voting states, but that's just one, which is a deep blue state anyway that hasn't gone red in a Presidential election in a very long time.

And New Hampshire is very close to Vermont, which is so crazy they've actually elected Bernie Sanders as their Senator a few times over.

If Trump or Cruz had close polling numbers in NH, THAT'D be worth posting.

Well as of right now Sanders does beat Trump in Iowa to. NBC poll has him up by 13% there. His average lead is eight points and Hillary's is five points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_sanders-5600.html
 
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