Elections 2016 GOP/Democratic March 15th Primaries

[GearSolidMetal]

I think a lot of people are under estimating the conservative Christian presence in florida Cruz should make it close

If Cruz pulls off a win in FL... that would shock the entire nation.

 

[Yunes]

If Cruz pulls off a win in FL... that would shock the entire nation.

you mean like iowa?

 

[GearSolidMetal]

you mean like iowa?

Iowa wasn't a shocker, and many predicted he would win.

FL? No one is predicting it, and it's worth 99 delegates. That's Yuge.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Cruz winning Florida would be bigger polling failure than Bernie winning Michigan last week. Trump is in the low 40's in polling and Cruz is high teens to low 20's. Now I could see Cruz finish a deistant second as Rubio is finished and Florida voters know it, but can't see it being within 15 points of Trump. Big issue here is the early votes banked for Rubio - over 40% of primary votes will have been cast before today - those votes for Rubio obviously cannot go to Cruz today. If there was no early voting Rubio might have dropped out two weeks ago, and his voters combined with Cruz' support could have made Ted competitive with Trump in Fla.

 

[Fawlty]

The biggest story by far is Trump v Kasich in Ohio. Trump wins Ohio, he has a very good chance at the outright nomination. Trump loses Ohio, they almost certainly go to the convention to fight it out.

Decent article from a few days ago: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/republican-contention-chaos-213725

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Cruz winning Florida would be bigger polling failure than Bernie winning Michigan last week. Trump is in the low 40's in polling and Cruz is high teens to low 20's. Now I could see Cruz finish a deistant second as Rubio is finished and Florida voters know it, but can't see it being within 15 points of Trump. Big issue here is the early votes banked for Rubio - over 40% of primary votes will have been cast before today - those votes for Rubio obviously cannot go to Cruz today. If there was no early voting Rubio might have dropped out two weeks ago, and his voters combined with Cruz' support could have made Ted competitive with Trump in Fla.

I look at it this way -

Kasich is the media's last ditch attempt to push an establishment candidate to fuck over Trump, Cruz, and the voters at the convention.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

California is 534 delegates last I saw, Washington state 140 something, Oregon almost 100.

That would be about 750, 60-40 split would be 450 Sanders 300 Clinton, 150 delegate gain. Like I said the west coast would almost be enough to wipe out Clinton's lead alone. Easy to make up 100 delegates in the Rust belt and East coast.

Bernie would have to 60-40 Hillary in all the west coast AND the Rust Belt and east coast. Complete sweep. I just don't see it happening.

Getting absolutely clobbered in the southern states cost him too much. I mean, Texas went almost 70-30 for Hillary! Travis County, the seat of ultra-liberal Austin, barely went Bernie 51-48.


http://www.nytimes.com/elections/20...REMARK&kwp_0=115245&kwp_4=543329&kwp_1=289112

It's over, man.

 

[COTUR1@43]

Nice...this A.P. writer gets it... :

Mar 15, 9:50 AM EDT

Trump gets huge win in Northern Mariana Islands GOP caucus

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER
Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Donald Trump has posted a big win in the GOP caucus on the Northern Mariana Islands.
The party says the billionaire businessman won almost 73 percent of the vote in Tuesday's caucus. He will get all nine delegates from the U.S. territory.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...MARIANA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

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[in the]

Little Marco drops out of the race tonight.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

And if I could add, that's why the media's focus is on Ohio.

Not Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, or Missouri. Although Florida and Illinois are worth more delegates.

They're promoting Kasich's eventual victory there, in an attempt to get more people to vote for him. And if he does win, expect Kasich to be media darling for the rest of the primary race. He'll be everywhere, acting like he's the frontrunner.

Don't fall for it.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Difference being Dem primaries are never winner take all. Bernie will have to win the rest of the contests 60-40 in order to overcome the delegate count (Not counting super delegates either). Whereas Trump/Cruz can win whole states with 40% of the vote in a three way race.

And I would argue the difference is that Bernie has favorable states in his future, and that Cruz's wheel house is behind him.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Bernie would have to 60-40 Hillary in all the west coast AND the Rust Belt and east coast. Complete sweep. I just don't see it happening.

Getting absolutely clobbered in the southern states cost him too much. I mean, Texas went almost 70-30 for Hillary! Travis County, the seat of ultra-liberal Austin, barely went Bernie 51-48.


http://www.nytimes.com/elections/20...REMARK&kwp_0=115245&kwp_4=543329&kwp_1=289112

It's over, man.

Keep telling yourself that. The fact is that the South's delegate's are nothing compared to the coasts, and rust belt.

Like I said earlier, I'm not sure what should concern Clinton supporters more, the idea that the polls were wrong in Michigan and Ohio, or that 20% of voters switched sides.

 

[theBLADE1]

I voted for my man Bernie last week!!!!!!!!!

I hope im wrong but I have a feeling Sanders loses Ohio. I've been doing some phone banking there and God that was brutal. That place is basically the south.

 

[NelmarksGhost]

Any last minute predictions?

I predict tears, and rustled jimmies.

 

[NelmarksGhost]

Hopefully there are some too close to call races. I bought extra popcorn for tonight, and demand entertainment.

 

[lil billy]

And if I could add, that's why the media's focus is on Ohio.

Not Florida, North Carolina, Illinois, or Missouri. Although Florida and Illinois are worth more delegates.

They're promoting Kasich's eventual victory there, in an attempt to get more people to vote for him. And if he does win, expect Kasich to be media darling for the rest of the primary race. He'll be everywhere, acting like he's the frontrunner.

Don't fall for it.

Definitely -if that happens Cruz gets squeezed again..time would run out on him and he'd never get Trump one-on-one.

 

[NelmarksGhost]

Fucking CNN. They had the timer run down for "First votes in", and then no announcement. They just start some new timer. No results in, and I'm already PISSED.

 

[TheStruggle]

Some slack jawed fraggles in CNN

 

[NelmarksGhost]

Snap. Florida: 62% Trump, 18% Rubio. 1% in.

 

[NelmarksGhost]

Florida: 57% Clinton, 40% Sanders 7% in.