Elections 2016 GOP/Democratic March 15th Primaries

[VivaRevolution]

I disagree with your assessment of of NC - all polls out of there have strong sample sizes (you set your threshold at 400 - all off NC are above that) and shares similar patterns as SC, Virgina etc.

Make you a wager - if hilary doesn't win by at least 20% in NC i will not post for a week - if she does, you dont.

Haven't seen those polls. Shoot me a link to what you are looking at, and I will decide if I want to take the wager.

If you have a sample size of atleast 1500-2000 in combined polls, within the last week or so, I would say it is good info, and again wouldn't expect to see more than a 5% swing, 10% pie in the sky hopes.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Haven't seen those polls. Shoot me a link to what you are looking at, and I will decide if I want to take the wager.

If you have a sample size of atleast 1500-2000 in combined polls, within the last week or so, I would say it is good info, and again wouldn't expect to see more than a 5% swing, 10% pie in the sky hopes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mocratic_presidential_primary-5175.html#polls

4 polls since the 3rd - each with over 500+ lv's

 

[VivaRevolution]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mocratic_presidential_primary-5175.html#polls

4 polls since the 3rd - each with over 500+ lv's

Yeah, when I looked Friday, 3 of those polls weren't out.

No, I would not take your bet. Over 2000 people for a sample size. I would guess Bernie loses NC, by 15% at best.

Can you answer me a question though? Why don't we have quality polling out of Ohio, and Illinois like this?

Can you explain to me why every state Bernie has won, with the exception of New Hampshire, that the polling info has been scarce?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Yeah, when I looked Friday, 3 of those polls weren't out.

No, I would not take your bet. Over 2000 people for a sample size. I would guess Bernie loses NC, by 15% at best.

Can you answer me a question though? Why don't we have quality polling out of Ohio, and Illinois like this?

Can you explain to me why every state Bernie has won, with the exception of New Hampshire, that the polling info has been scarce?

20%+ is not fantastical in NC or Florida - That its a huge amount of delegates in Hill's favor out of 307.

Game on tomorrow.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

If I had to bet...

FL- Trump
OH- Trump
IL- Trump
MO-Cruz
NC-Cruz

 

[DragRacer]

I early voted today, pushing the GO TRUMP button of course.
Talking in line with people there was rumors of Cruz voters being driven around in vans and voting at precincts all over the state.
Is this even possible?

 

[speakhandsforme]

Just got done burning the midnight oil, planting 40-some signs around the city. Now it's time to wait.

 

[speakhandsforme]

If I had to bet...

FL- Trump
OH- Trump
IL- Trump
MO-Cruz
NC-Cruz

Yup, that looks about right. Here in MO, the Cruz commercials are only outpaced by the rampant anti-Trump commercials.

 

[VivaRevolution]

If I had to bet...

FL- Trump
OH- Trump
IL- Trump
MO-Cruz
NC-Cruz

It's over if this is the case. Florida and Ohio are winner take all, I'm pretty sure, and are huge delegate counts.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

It's over if this is the case. Florida and Ohio are winner take all, I'm pretty sure, and are huge delegate counts.

Not done yet. There's still only halfway through the states and delegates.

If these are the results tomorrow, then Trump's delegates are around 650, probably. And Cruz's would be 400-440.

There's still 1200 delegates up for grabs after Tuesday.

 

[VivaRevolution]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mocratic_presidential_primary-5175.html#polls

4 polls since the 3rd - each with over 500+ lv's

Just realized NC is a semi-open primary, and those polls I believe are only polling Democrats.

I'll give you Florida at 20-25%, but I expect Bernie to close big in NC due to the Independent vote not being accounted for in the polling.

I have no evidence for this theory beyond Michigan, and someone is welcome to disprove it by showing Independents being included in the sampling.

I would not be surprised to see it accounted for in the newest polling showing Sanders surging in the rust belt however.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Not done yet. There's still only halfway through the states and delegates.

If these are the results tomorrow, then Trump's delegates are around 650, probably. And Cruz's would be 400-440.

There's still 1200 delegates up for grabs after Tuesday.

True, same argument for Bernie.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Just realized NC is a semi-open primary, and those polls I believe are only polling Democrats.

I'll give you Florida at 20-25%, but I expect Bernie to close big in NC due to the Independent vote not being accounted for in the polling.

I have no evidence for this theory beyond Michigan, and someone is welcome to disprove it by showing Independents being included in the sampling.

I would not be surprised to see it accounted for in the newest polling showing Sanders surging in the rust belt however.

It was a Lv poll, not a RV. Lv allow for independents.

 

[ShoelessRye]

If I had to bet...

FL- Trump
OH- Trump
IL- Trump
MO-Cruz
NC-Cruz

Kasich is going to win Ohio. Cruz will win Missouri almost surely given he won Iowa, Kansas and Arkansas. Trump wins NC though - fits with SC and Va wins for Trump and Rubio fading hard , but if Cruz wins another state it will be Illinois as he's making a play downstate there, which makes sense. If Kasich does well in northern Illinois, Cruz could win it.

So I'll go with -
Trump wins Fla and NC
Cruz wins MO and IL
Kasich wins OH

 

[ShoelessRye]

True, same argument for Bernie.

Difference being Dem primaries are never winner take all. Bernie will have to win the rest of the contests 60-40 in order to overcome the delegate count (Not counting super delegates either). Whereas Trump/Cruz can win whole states with 40% of the vote in a three way race.

 

[Yunes]

What was funny throughout the video was Kasich's constant annoyance that every issue wasn't framed in the most favorable light possible, and he had to correct every detail.

His irritation was obvious, and he acted Fox owed it to him (since he worked there) to aid him in the optics of his eventual nomination.

I laughed out loud multiple times throughout the interview. It was like Kasich hasn't been running for President for the last nine months. He's taken questions from reporters that he didn't anticipate, hasn't he? Apparently not.

I think a lot of people are under estimating the conservative Christian presence in florida Cruz should make it close

 

[Fawlty]

Kasich is going to win Ohio. Cruz will win Missouri almost surely given he won Iowa, Kansas and Arkansas. Trump wins NC though - fits with SC and Va wins for Trump and Rubio fading hard , but if Cruz wins another state it will be Illinois as he's making a play downstate there, which makes sense. If Kasich does well in northern Illinois, Cruz could win it.

So I'll go with -
Trump wins Fla and NC
Cruz wins MO and IL
Kasich wins OH

I believe Trump has a small lead in MO (~6 points according to RCP), and I wouldn't go off of neighboring states like Kansas and Arkansas- MO has its own identity. Not to say Cruz won't win, as he might. It's also an open primary, which favors Trump.

 

[ShoelessRye]

I believe Trump has a small lead in MO (~6 points according to RCP), and I wouldn't go off of neighboring states like Kansas and Arkansas- MO has its own identity. Not to say Cruz won't win, as he might.

Cruz' campaign manager is also a Missouri native and has won several statewide races there - he knows where the votes are and how to get them out to the polls.

 

[Fawlty]

Cruz' campaign manager is also a Missouri native and has won several statewide races there - he knows where the votes are and how to get them out to the polls.

That ground game is definitely strong.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Kasich is going to win Ohio. Cruz will win Missouri almost surely given he won Iowa, Kansas and Arkansas. Trump wins NC though - fits with SC and Va wins for Trump and Rubio fading hard , but if Cruz wins another state it will be Illinois as he's making a play downstate there, which makes sense. If Kasich does well in northern Illinois, Cruz could win it.

So I'll go with -
Trump wins Fla and NC
Cruz wins MO and IL
Kasich wins OH

Kasich is going to win Ohio. Cruz will win Missouri almost surely given he won Iowa, Kansas and Arkansas. Trump wins NC though - fits with SC and Va wins for Trump and Rubio fading hard , but if Cruz wins another state it will be Illinois as he's making a play downstate there, which makes sense. If Kasich does well in northern Illinois, Cruz could win it.

So I'll go with -
Trump wins Fla and NC
Cruz wins MO and IL
Kasich wins OH

Happy to hear that Cruz could win MO.

Still not convinced about Kasich winning OH, but I guess we'll know in 12 hours.