Elections 2016 GOP/Democratic March 15th Primaries

[Lead]

Nope just arguing the counter position in multiple forms.

My first point is that the polling has been horrible so far.

My second point, was that if you reject that notion, that the polls themselves show Sanders doing really well right now.

Maybe I didn't make that clear, but it wasn't meant to be hypocritical, or disingenuous, it was meant to counter multiple counter points.

Polling haven't been awful. One state with Michigan isn't awful. All the other states were within a decent range of what the polls were showing.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

From what I've seen of the polls in Ohio, the only ones reporting Kasich has a lead are conducted by Fox News. And those polls were released on Thursday to hype up a townhall interview with him on Friday.

Thats a big coincidence.

And today at some rallies in Ohio, Mitt Romney spoke in favor of Kasich.

If you're betting on Kasich winning Ohio tomorrow, I'd think twice about that.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Polling haven't been awful. One state with Michigan isn't awful. All the other states were within a decent range of what the polls were showing.

What polls for Maine, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Colorado, ect.?

When I say the polling has been horrible, I include a lack of polling info in that opinion.

 

[Lead]

What polls for Maine, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Colorado, ect.?

When I say the polling has been horrible, I include a lack of polling info in that opinion.

Fair enough. There are a lot of blackout or little info states that aren't exactly fair to call on accuracy

 

[VivaRevolution]

Just doing the math real quick, California has 476 delegates. If Bernie wins 60-40, that means he gets about 286 and Hillary 190. That'd cut Hillary's lead by less than 100. So even if Bernie comes out of Tuesday "only" down 250 and nails California 60-40, he's STILL down 150.

He'd need to start razing some of these medium states 70-30.

It's not looking good, unfortunately.

California is 534 delegates last I saw, Washington state 140 something, Oregon almost 100.

That would be about 750, 60-40 split would be 450 Sanders 300 Clinton, 150 delegate gain. Like I said the west coast would almost be enough to wipe out Clinton's lead alone. Easy to make up 100 delegates in the Rust belt and East coast.

 

[VivaRevolution]

edit

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

projected 60 - 30 wins for Hilary in Florida and NC - over 300 delegates up for grabs between those two states alone.

So far, the majority of polls have Ill and OH for Hilary with a 54-46 projected win - if that goes down, Hilary buries the crypt keeper tomorrow night. But even if Hillary loses to Bernard tomorrow in Ill, Missouri and OH - it will still be by a near 50% +/- a few points - so she still could add an additional 150+ to her lead from blow outs in Florida / NC

 

[SiKnSiN]

I want Hilary to go down as well, but it would take a miracle. Being done with the southern states doesn't mean anything. Even losing Cali, Washington, Oregon 60-40 won't make a difference. Hillary still has New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. She will take at least 55% of those 760+ delegates. Then it just comes down to simple math.


Thanks for the thread TS. Just replace Montana with Missouri.

 

[VivaRevolution]

projected 60 - 30 wins for Hilary in Florida and NC - over 300 delegates up for grabs between those two states alone.

So far, the majority of polls have Ill and OH for Hilary with a 54-46 projected win - if that goes down, Hilary buries the crypt keeper tomorrow night. But even if Hillary loses to Bernard tomorrow in Ill, Missouri and OH - it will still be by a near 50% +/- a few points - so she still could add an additional 150+ to her lead from blow outs in Florida / NC

Sounds like Bernie supporters aren't the only one's wearing rose colored glasses.

Whole lot of if's here.

The most likely outcome for tomorrow, is Clinton holding her lead, maybe extending it by 20-40 delegates.

Bernie is actually running in NC, and Florida, unlike the rest of the south. Don't expect the south's trends to hold there.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure what should be more worrying to Clinton supporters, that the polls showing her up by 20 points in Michigan, and a 24 point swing in Ohio were wrong, or that 20% of voters flipped on her in those states.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Over the weekend I assumed Kasich winning Ohio would be a good thing for Cruz so Trump wouldn't get those delegates.

I assumed that Kasich would drop out after a few more defeats. On second thought, I'm assuming wrong.

Kasich would stay in it until the end, hoping to deal the 125+ delegates he has to Trump in exchange for the VP slot. He won't make the same offer to Cruz, who's chances of winning a total of 1237 delegates he'd be directly sabatoging.

So, I'm hoping for a Trump win in OH and FL tomorrow. It'll finally be down to a 2-man race. Even though Trump would have a big delegate lead, especially if he wins the three other states (which I doubt he wins all of them), Cruz would have a high chance of winning the majority of the remaining delegates to outright win the nomination.

 

[VivaRevolution]

Over the weekend I assumed Kasich winning Ohio would be a good thing for Cruz so Trump wouldn't get those delegates.

I assumed that Kasich would drop out after a few more defeats. On second thought, I'm assuming wrong.

Kasich would stay in it until the end, hoping to deal the 125+ delegates he has to Trump in exchange for the VP slot. He won't make the same offer to Cruz, who's chances of winning a total of 1237 delegates he'd be directly sabatoging.

So, I'm hoping for a Trump win in OH and FL tomorrow. It'll finally be down to a 2-man race. Even though Trump would have a big delegate lead, especially if he wins the three other states (which I doubt he wins all of them), Cruz would have a high chance of winning the majority of the remaining delegates to outright win the nomination.

I think Kasich still has a path here to the nomination through a brokered convention.

The Maine win for Cruz gave me some pause, but I don't think he will play outside the evangelical belt. This means that someone has to beat Trump on the coasts and midwest, and I don't think that is Rubio.

So making some leaps here, in counting Rubio, and Cruz out for the mid-west, and coasts, this would mean Kasich would have all the momentum in reaching a brokered convention, and preventing Trump from getting the delegates needed to secure the nomination.

 

[Fawlty]

How many southern states are left in the contest......Oh wait?

__________________________________________________________________________

Sanders barnstorms Midwest as Clinton lead narrows in several states

In Illinois, one of five states holding primaries on Tuesday, a fresh CBS News poll even shows Sanders ahead of Clinton by 2 points.

The story is the same across the Midwest.

In Ohio’s primary, polls show Clinton leading by an average of just 6 percentage points, down from a high of 30 just a few weeks ago. In Missouri, too, Sanders has decidedly closed the gap.

The polling reflects Sanders’ apparent surge in Midwestern and Rust Belt states, possibly propelled by last week's stunning upset of Clinton in the Michigan primary. The territory is proving to be a potential stronghold for the still-underdog self-professed Socialist senator, even as Clinton locks down traditional Democratic support across the South.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ton-lead-narrows-in-several-states/ar-AAgLni2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...hio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html

Holy shit!

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Sounds like Bernie supporters aren't the only one's wearing rose colored glasses.

Whole lot of if's here.

The most likely outcome for tomorrow, is Clinton holding her lead, maybe extending it by 20-40 delegates.

Bernie is actually running in NC, and Florida, unlike the rest of the south. Don't expect the south's trends to hold there.

As I said earlier, I'm not sure what should be more worrying to Clinton supporters, that the polls showing her up by 20 points in Michigan, and a 24 point swing in Ohio were wrong, or that 20% of voters flipped on her in those states.

You counter what you call if's with even more egregious ones of your own. I merely stated facts - fivethirtyeight has both Florida and NC at 60+ proportional delegate in Hilary's favor - if you want to show me your metrics and not just your opinionated fluff, id be happy to see them.

 

[VivaRevolution]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...hio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html

Holy shit!

Yeah, I think what is going on here, is that they haven't been polling Independents in open primary states.

The poll numbers that we have been seeing, I don't think they reflect reality. Sanders lost with Dems in Michigan. 27% of voters in Michigan were Independents, that broke 70-30 Sanders. If those numbers are still polling just Dems, get ready for the biggest upset in US elections history part 2 from Bernie here.

I expect to see the same throughout the rust belt, and coasts, where states are open primaries.

I've been seeing that some states are partially open, and this has varying definitions. Not sure what to make of that.

 

[VivaRevolution]

You counter what you call if's with even more egregious ones of your own. I merely stated facts - fivethirtyeight has both Florida and NC at 60+ proportional delegate in Hilary's favor - if you want to show me your metrics and not just your opinionated fluff, id be happy to see them.

Metrics based on flawed methodology, aren't worth the Charmin Extra soft I wipe my backside with. Silver admits his methodology was flawed in Michigan. Show me he fixed it.

My conjecture was accompanied by changes in reality. Hence Bernie will do better in NC and Florida because he is actually running there. Do you dispute this statement?

 

[Fawlty]

Yeah, I think what is going on here, is that they haven't been polling Independents in open primary states.

The poll numbers that we have been seeing, I don't think they reflect reality. Sanders lost with Dems in Michigan. 27% of voters in Michigan were Independents, that broke 70-30 Sanders.

I expect to see the same throughout the rust belt, and coasts, where states are open primaries.

I've been seeing that some states are partially open, and this has varying definitions. Not sure what to make of that.

I always expect some Independent swing in Bernie's favor contrary to polls (especially now that the south is about over with), and I figured he would do well in MI after kicking her ass on stage, but did not at all expect him to be closing like this in Ohio. Let us know if you come across any breakdowns of how he needs to perform in the rest of the states?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Metrics based on flawed methodology, aren't worth the Charmin Extra soft I wipe my backside with. Silver admits his methodology was flawed in Michigan. Show me he fixed it.

BTW, I quantified my conjecture as conjecture.

its not silver but Enten and hes been dead on with texas, and the majority of the other states hes done analytics for.

Also, even Bernies own polling team got Michigan wrong - you cant keep clinging to an outlier


edit: you need to stop editing your posts with questions and supplemental points - you dont give people a chance to respond to.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I think Kasich still has a path here to the nomination through a brokered convention.

That's his only path, and it's a pathetic path of desperation that'll guarantee a win to the Democrat in November.

Of all the votes throughout all the caucuses and primaries, what percentage has he recieved?

He got 0% in Wyoming.

The Maine win for Cruz gave me some pause, but I don't think he will play outside the evangelical belt. This means that someone has to beat Trump on the coasts and midwest, and I don't think that is Rubio.

It'd be interesting to see the polls in all the remaining states for a Trump/Cruz matchup. Nationally, which includes states that already voted, it's about 60/40 in favor of Cruz.

After Tuesday, we still have half the states left, with California at the end with 125 delegates. Last poll I heard out of California, Cruz was leading and that was before a few other candidates dropped out.

So making some leaps here, in counting Rubio, and Cruz out for the mid-west, and coasts, this would mean Kasich would have all the momentum in reaching a brokered convention, and preventing Trump from getting the delegates needed to secure the nomination.

Kasich still in the race, with zero chance of winning other states, would hamper his support in future states. There's little chance his support would increase. The few percentage points he'd carve off of Cruz's supposed support, of his supporters that would go to Cruz, would make Cruz's path to 1237 delegates more difficult, but still attainable.

I could be wrong about this, but after tomorrow there'd still be alittle under half the delegates still up for contention. I'd have to add up all the delegates of the past primaries/caucuses, and subtract them from the total delegates of 2477.

 

[VivaRevolution]

its not silver but Enten and hes been dead on with texas, and the majority of the other states hes done analytics for.

Also, even Bernies own polling team got Michigan wrong - you cant keep clinging to an outlier

Texas was polled like crazy. Statistical analysis based on actual statistics, tends to be more accurate.

The problem with Michigan was the lack of polling.

I bet Florida will come out close to what projections are now. Maybe Bernie can move the numbers by 5-10 points by campaigning, but you will not see the 20 point swing, because there are tonnes of polls coming out of there.

NC, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and states further down the road, don't have reliable polling info out.

Your argument is made of mirage, and not based in actual statistics. The polling info for places like Florida, and Texas, are not equal to the polling info coming out of most other places.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Texas was polled like crazy. Statistical analysis based on actual statistics, tends to be more accurate.

The problem with Michigan was the lack of polling.

I bet Florida will come out close to what projections are now. Maybe Bernie can move the numbers by 5-10 points by campaigning, but you will not see the 20 point swing, because there are tonnes of polls coming out of there.

NC, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and states further down the road, don't have reliable polling info out.

Your argument is made of mirage, and not based in actual statistics. The polling info for places like Florida, and Texas, are not equal to the polling info coming out of most other places.

I disagree with your assessment of of NC - all polls out of there have strong sample sizes (you set your threshold at 400 - all off NC are above that) and shares similar patterns as SC, Virgina etc.

Make you a wager - if hilary doesn't win by at least 20% in NC i will not post for a week - if she does, you dont.