Elections 2016 GOP/Democratic March 15th Primaries

[Lead]

Democrat Side
Florida (214)
Illinois (156)
Montana (71)
North Carolina (107)
Ohio (143)

FiveThirtyEight's Democratic Delegate Target Forecast
Real Clear Politics March 15th Polling

GOP Side
Florida (99) (Winner Take All)
Illinois (69)
Montana (52)
North Carolina (72)
Ohio (66) (Winner Take All)
Northern Marianas (9) (Winner Take All?)

FiveThirtyEight's GOP Delegate Target Forecast
Real Clear Politcs March 15th Polling

The delegate size awarded is about half what Super Tuesday was but with some winner take all states in the mix, it is likely the second most important day outside of the first states and Super Tuesday. The only time we will see another count this big will be June 7th (the last day of the primaries) where California and some others will vote. After March 15th, we will have approached 60% of delegates allocated.

 

[Lead]

Figures Bernie is closest in a state that isn't winner take all. Seems like every night where it seem like a neck and neck race, you see how states allocate and realize he lost big. The 15th should be the same cause even if he wins IL like Michigan, he loses FL and likely OH which would all go to Hillary rather than a close split

 

[Fawlty]

Clinton has a bigger lead in Ohio in the polls than she had in Michigan. Being an open primary should help Sanders a bit beyond the suggestion of the polls, but I don't think he's closing this gap. The win in Michigan hasn't given him the momentum he needed. His best chance now is an indictment, but I hope he can giver her hell anyway. I think Ohio will also decide whether Trump has to fight it out at the convention. He's got Florida on lockdown, but he's really tight with Kasich there, and if I'm not mistaken really tight races should favor a sitting Governor on primary day.

 

[Lead]

Clinton has a bigger lead in Ohio in the polls than she had in Michigan. Being an open primary should help Sanders a bit beyond the suggestion of the polls, but I don't think he's closing this gap. The win in Michigan hasn't given him the momentum he needed. His best chance now is an indictment, but I hope he can giver her hell anyway. I think Ohio will also decide whether Trump has to fight it out at the convention. He's got Florida on lockdown, but he's really tight with Kasich there, and if I'm not mistaken really tight races should favor a sitting Governor on primary day.

If you count the recent OH poll, it does narrow it a little more.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...hio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...gan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html

Still a decent gap and the Michigan outcome was truly a rare occurrence in primary polling. When people were calling BS on the 1% predictions, they didn't realize that those forecasts are taking all previous primary data and forming a percentage chance of it occurring again. For Michigan, I believe they had it as a 22 point comeback. The last highest turnaround was 1984 and it was around 18 points. So think about that. In how many primary races since 1984 divided by these two upsets and you do have a <1% outcome.

I agree with you though. I think OH will go with Hillary but it is a rust belt state and if that somehow blends enough with what happened in MI, it possible. I just don't see it happening.

 

[Fawlty]

If you count the recent OH poll, it does narrow it a little more.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...hio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...gan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html

Still a decent gap and the Michigan outcome was truly a rare occurrence in primary polling. When people were calling BS on the 1% predictions, they didn't realize that those forecasts are taking all previous primary data and forming a percentage chance of it occurring again. For Michigan, I believe they had it as a 22 point comeback. The last highest turnaround was 1984 and it was around 18 points. So think about that. In how many primary races since 1984 divided by these two upsets and you do have a <1% outcome.

I agree with you though. I think OH will go with Hillary but it is a rust belt state and if that somehow blends enough with what happened in MI, it possible. I just don't see it happening.

A little tighter than I thought it was, interesting. Still tough for Sanders, he needs a big push from Independents.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Trump is guaranteed to win Florida. Hopefully Rubio won't be a piece of shit, and drop out.

Kasich may have a chance in Ohio, but if Trump wins it so Kasich will drop out, that's great too.

Now, as for the other three, they're complete crap shoots between Trump and Cruz. In most polls, Trump wins them, but as recent history has shown, in many states Cruz surged in the final days and out-performed his polls to either win or come in as a close runner-up. But none of the three states are winner-takes-all, so if Cruz wins he takes a large portion of the delegates, but Trump will win the most on Tuesday due to Florida.

Whatever the results on Tuesday, Rubio dropping out will be viewed as a victory for Cruz. Even in a 3-man race, Cruz could catch up to Trump to either win 1237 delegates, or have the most going into a contested convention.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

For those that want to see Kaisch's jimmies russled in a major way... watch this.

 

[Fawlty]

The last minute of Kasich being busted about the Common Core non-issue issue was great. Kasich wouldn't give a straight answer because he knows that Common Core outrage is fabricated.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

The last minute of Kasich being busted about the Common Core non-issue issue was great. Kasich wouldn't give a straight answer because he knows that Common Core outrage is fabricated.

What was funny throughout the video was Kasich's constant annoyance that every issue wasn't framed in the most favorable light possible, and he had to correct every detail.

His irritation was obvious, and he acted Fox owed it to him (since he worked there) to aid him in the optics of his eventual nomination.

I laughed out loud multiple times throughout the interview. It was like Kasich hasn't been running for President for the last nine months. He's taken questions from reporters that he didn't anticipate, hasn't he? Apparently not.

 

[VivaRevolution]

I got Bernie in Illinois, Montana, and I think it will be close in Ohio.

The south is done with after this. Hillary will have about a 200 delegate lead, after this.

I really don't think that is enough to hold Sanders off going into more favorable Sanders territory.

 

[speakhandsforme]

Figures Bernie is closest in a state that isn't winner take all. Seems like every night where it seem like a neck and neck race, you see how states allocate and realize he lost big. The 15th should be the same cause even if he wins IL like Michigan, he loses FL and likely OH which would all go to Hillary rather than a close split

All Democratic Primary states are proportional. The winner take all states only apply to the Republican race.

 

[Lead]

All Democratic Primary states are proportional. The winner take all states only apply to the Republican race.

Oh. In my OP, I didn't even try looking into what the Dem side had and just assumed if the state elected WTA, it applied to both. Really weird the caveats to everything.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Holy fuck... look at Rubio in this clip.

Ignore what he says, but analyse his tone, body language, and facial expressions.

He is completely exhausted, physically and mentally. No confidence whatsoever and he is completely dreading the results on Tuesday.

He should have got out two weeks ago, at the latest. IMO, some other factor is playing a part in keeping him in. No politician that's running for President, and losing, stays in to lose their own state. Especially while they're still in elected office in that state.

Kasich at least has high poll numbers in Ohio, the only state he's had high poll numbers in.

 

[VivaRevolution]

A little tighter than I thought it was, interesting. Still tough for Sanders, he needs a big push from Independents.

That is the key here. Florida is the only closed primary for Tuesday, for the Dems. Independents need to show up, and continue to break 70-30 for Bernie. If this happens, all bets are off.

 

[Lead]

Holy fuck... look at Rubio in this clip.

Ignore what he says, but analyse his tone, body language, and facial expressions.

He is completely exhausted, physically and mentally. No confidence whatsoever and he is completely dreading the results on Tuesday.

He should have got out two weeks ago, at the latest. IMO, some other factor is playing a part in keeping him in. No politician that's running for President, and losing, stays in to lose their own state. Especially while they're still in elected office in that state.

Kasich at least has high poll numbers in Ohio, the only state he's had high poll numbers in.

Even what he's saying reflects his posture, etc. He's pale too. I noticed right before Iowa or NH, Trump looked like a wreck too. People were talking about how his events had gone lower key where he'd be sitting down and fairly quiet as if he had no energy to speak. These races pull everything out of these candidates. It amazes me they do this and then when they are out of the tunnel, they possibly are in charge of running the nation 24/7 for the next four years. It really is a 5 year term in you consider the campaign year.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Even what he's saying reflects his posture, etc. He's pale too. I noticed right before Iowa or NH, Trump looked like a wreck too. People were talking about how his events had gone lower key where he'd be sitting down and fairly quiet as if he had no energy to speak. These races pull everything out of these candidates. It amazes me they do this and then when they are out of the tunnel, they possibly are in charge of running the nation 24/7 for the next four years. It really is a 5 year term in you consider the campaign year.

Which begs the question... Why didn't he get out while the getting was good?

I mean personally and professionally. He could have still ran for his Senate seat re-election. Now it's too late to save face.

He's a smart guy. No one denies that, but I have a gut feeling there was far more than personal pride or the belief of the soundbites he repeats to the media.

I've seen men with serious cases of insomnia, and perhaps it's because he's getting over being sick as a dog, or the fact he wasn't wearing makeup in this bit (all politicians do before going on camera). But I can confidently say he hasn't had much sleep in days.

 

[Fawlty]

That is the key here. Florida is the only closed primary for Tuesday, for the Dems. Independents need to show up, and continue to break 70-30 for Bernie. If this happens, all bets are off.

I don't want to do the math, but I know it's a tough road. Do you have a breakdown of his chances handy?

 

[Lead]

Which begs the question... Why didn't he get out while the getting was good?

I mean personally and professionally. He could have still ran for his Senate seat re-election. Now it's too late to save face.

He's a smart guy. No one denies that, but I have a gut feeling there was far more than personal pride or the belief of the soundbites he repeats to the media.

I've seen men with serious cases of insomnia, and perhaps it's because he's getting over being sick as a dog, or the fact he wasn't wearing makeup in this bit (all politicians do before going on camera). But I can confidently say he hasn't had much sleep in days.

I don't think he was ever considering going back to the senate. He likely thought he'd be in the administration even if he didn't win and with Trump leading, he sees that growing dimmer. Someone brought up he could be considering 2018 for governor or FL since the Rick Scott will be termed out. He might realize that also is dimmer since he likely is going to lose the state Tuesday.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I don't think he was ever considering going back to the senate. He likely thought he'd be in the administration even if he didn't win and with Trump leading, he sees that growing dimmer. Someone brought up he could be considering 2018 for governor or FL since the Rick Scott will be termed out. He might realize that also is dimmer since he likely is going to lose the state Tuesday.

Which makes me wonder why he didn't accept sharing a ticket with Cruz.

No one can tell me that wasn't discussed among the backroom conversations of the campaigns.

After Super Tuesday, if Cruz/Rubio was announced, the entire political spectrum would be 100% different.

Cruz would have won damn near every primary since then, and probably in line to win four of the five states on Tuesday.

Which makes me suspect there MUST be someone pulling Marco's strings. No evidence of this, just a theory, and they'd rather ruin his political career than drop out earlier than they prefer.

 

[Lead]

Which makes me wonder why he didn't accept sharing a ticket with Cruz.

No one can tell me that wasn't discussed among the backroom conversations of the campaigns.

After Super Tuesday, if Cruz/Rubio was announced, the entire political spectrum would be 100% different.

Cruz would have won damn near every primary since then, and probably in line to win four of the five states on Tuesday.

Which makes me suspect there MUST be someone pulling Marco's strings. No evidence of this, just a theory, and they'd rather ruin his political career than drop out earlier than they prefer.

I think you underestimate the ego aspect. These people think they should be running the country and most of them usually don't want to concede to 2nd even if their chances are slim. I'd expect the same in reverse for Cruz. They both are younger and I think that's what makes them oppose a joint ticket. Now if Kasich or Jeb had won, I think Rubio would've been far more willing to concede and understand in eight years he could run the party. With Cruz, that wouldn't be as clear or make as much sense.

Also, I don't think his career is ruined either. Everything is drummed up during these campaigns. In the long run, Rubio is going to be seen positively for being against Trump even if it was a losing battle. His favorability is still high and he's young so he can afford to look longterm like that.