Elections 2016 GOP/Democratic March 15th Primaries

[ucunc156]

I think Bernie wins Illinois and Ohio. His constant trashing of Rahm will help him take Illinois and Ohio has even more favorable demographics than Michigan did (higher white population, huge public college population, with named schools throughout the state). He will get smoked in FL though.

Trump wins all except Ohio. Rubio gets embarassed in FL possibly coming in third, but saves face by becoming the VP under Trump to unite the party.

 

[Fatt Hughes]

I think Bernie wins Illinois and Ohio. His constant trashing of Rahm will help him take Illinois and Ohio has even more favorable demographics than Michigan did (higher white population, huge public college population, with named schools throughout the state). He will get smoked in FL though.

Trump wins all except Ohio. Rubio gets embarassed in FL possibly coming in third, but saves face by becoming the VP under Trump to unite the party.

At one time I thought Rubio would be a running mate for Trump, however Rubio went all in with the establishment game plan that he practically nuked Trump with buzz words such as con man. Having Rubio on the ticket, he'd have to constantly defend his rhetoric not only against the press, but against democratic opposition. The attack ads using Rubio against Trump pretty much write themselves. On top of that, if Rubio is soundly beaten in FL, his home state, a state he can't guarantee to help deliver in GE, then it leaves some hesitation in selecting him for the slot.

 

[ucunc156]

thats fair, but even after the unloading by rubio, all the republicans still pledged to support the nominee, so rubio can just point to that.

I do think Kasich is a better choice though to bring in the establishment vote.

 

[ThinkGreen]

Lol @ Rubio not being able to win Florida. What a can.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Trump wins Fla and NC
Cruz wins IL and MO
Kasich wins OH

Rubio couldn't get out two weeks ago because of the early voting. Over 40% of the total votes casts will have been done by absentee and early voting. So if he dropped out two weeks ago, all those votes would have been wasted and obviously couldn't go to Cruz or Kasich. Rubio was the only long shot chance at keeping Trump from winning Florida.

 

[Greco_Wiz]

I got Bernie in Illinois, Montana, and I think it will be close in Ohio.

The south is done with after this. Hillary will have about a 200 delegate lead, after this.

I really don't think that is enough to hold Sanders off going into more favorable Sanders territory.

You're blinded by the Bern. He'll be lucky to be within 300 Wed morning.

 

[VivaRevolution]

You're blinded by the Bern. He'll be lucky to be within 300 Wed morning.

How did Michigan work out for you?

 

[Greco_Wiz]

How did Michigan work out for you?

How many delegates did Bernie gain on Clinton that day?

Oh wait...

 

[ShoelessRye]

Clinton's delegate lead is almost insurmountable now, and probably only grows tomorrow. Problem being that no Dem contests are WTA, and she racked up HUGE margins in the South and otherwise keeps it close win or loss elsewhere outside Vermont really, and a couple caucuses both of which have small delegate counts to award.

Bernie will be able to grind it out though April, but the results have basically been written already. All that's left is to keep her lurching left, spending millions combined to do it. I do think Dems are feeling more "freer" to vote Bernie though because of what's happening on the other side - Trump or Cruz is very likely the GOP nominee, the brokered convention talk isn't likely to amount to a wholly new candidate being foisted on the GOP electorate by party insiders when the two biggest outsider candidates - Trump and Cruz will likley combine for over 1400 delegates - meaning the GOP primary base will have spoken and they want an outsider. There is only ONE possibility and that would be Paul Ryan - he seems to hold some freedom caucus/tea party cred for whatever reason - and he ran on the Presidential ticket in 2012 so he's been heavily vetted - and now he's Speaker of the House.

 

[VivaRevolution]

How many delegates did Bernie gain on Clinton that day?

Oh wait...

How many southern states are left in the contest......Oh wait?

__________________________________________________________________________

Sanders barnstorms Midwest as Clinton lead narrows in several states

In Illinois, one of five states holding primaries on Tuesday, a fresh CBS News poll even shows Sanders ahead of Clinton by 2 points.

The story is the same across the Midwest.

In Ohio’s primary, polls show Clinton leading by an average of just 6 percentage points, down from a high of 30 just a few weeks ago. In Missouri, too, Sanders has decidedly closed the gap.

The polling reflects Sanders’ apparent surge in Midwestern and Rust Belt states, possibly propelled by last week's stunning upset of Clinton in the Michigan primary. The territory is proving to be a potential stronghold for the still-underdog self-professed Socialist senator, even as Clinton locks down traditional Democratic support across the South.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ton-lead-narrows-in-several-states/ar-AAgLni2

 

[VivaRevolution]

Clinton's delegate lead is almost insurmountable now, and probably only grows tomorrow. Problem being that no Dem contests are WTA, and she racked up HUGE margins in the South and otherwise keeps it close win or loss elsewhere outside Vermont really, and a couple caucuses both of which have small delegate counts to award.

Bernie will be able to grind it out though April, but the results have basically been written already. All that's left is to keep her lurching left, spending millions combined to do it. I do think Dems are feeling more "freer" to vote Bernie though because of what's happening on the other side - Trump or Cruz is very likely the GOP nominee, the brokered convention talk isn't likely to amount to a wholly new candidate being foisted on the GOP electorate by party insiders when the two biggest outsider candidates - Trump and Cruz will likley combine for over 1400 delegates - meaning the GOP primary base will have spoken and they want an outsider. There is only ONE possibility and that would be Paul Ryan - he seems to hold some freedom caucus/tea party cred for whatever reason - and he ran on the Presidential ticket in 2012 so he's been heavily vetted - and now he's Speaker of the House.

Debunked talking point. Clinton's delegate lead is based on Superdelegates. This same thing happened in 08, and when Clinton lost the delegate count allotted by voters, the Superdelegates were forced to switch sides.

Clinton's vote allotted delegate lead is 205. That is not only surmountable, but easily doable.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

If Bernie gets 40% in Florida it'll be yuge.

He'll likely squeeze out a few wins and take a few close Ls in the midwest. Overall, it'll be another net loss. The key is to make that loss fairly small. Keeping Hillary's lead under, about, 250 would be ideal.

 

[Greco_Wiz]

How many southern states are left in the contest......Oh wait?

__________________________________________________________________________

Sanders barnstorms Midwest as Clinton lead narrows in several states

In Illinois, one of five states holding primaries on Tuesday, a fresh CBS News poll even shows Sanders ahead of Clinton by 2 points.

The story is the same across the Midwest.

In Ohio’s primary, polls show Clinton leading by an average of just 6 percentage points, down from a high of 30 just a few weeks ago. In Missouri, too, Sanders has decidedly closed the gap.

The polling reflects Sanders’ apparent surge in Midwestern and Rust Belt states, possibly propelled by last week's stunning upset of Clinton in the Michigan primary. The territory is proving to be a potential stronghold for the still-underdog self-professed Socialist senator, even as Clinton locks down traditional Democratic support across the South.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ton-lead-narrows-in-several-states/ar-AAgLni2

It's almost laughable how optimistic you are about this race once it leaves the south. Yes, Bernie will do better (how can he do worse?), but let's see here...

He's STILL trailing in the majority of the states left, let alone thinking he's going to win them by >10% margins. He's behind in the two biggest states yet to vote!!

 

[VivaRevolution]

If Bernie gets 40% in Florida it'll be yuge.

He'll likely squeeze out a few wins and take a few close Ls in the midwest. Overall, it'll be another net loss. The key is to make that loss fairly small. Keeping Hillary's lead under, about, 250 would be ideal.

Florida is key as it is the only closed primary on Tuesday for the Dems, although it really doesn't make that much of a difference, if Bernie wins in Illinois, and Ohio. The south is over come this Tuesday.

If Clinton walks out of the south with even a 300 delegate lead, I don't think it will be enough. I live on the west coast, and I don't think people really understand how the west coast is going to break for Bernie. Our primaries are not closed, and if Bernie wins Dems 55-45 here, and continues with his 70-30 domination of Clinton with Independents, the West coast alone may overturn Clinton's delegate lead.

 

[VivaRevolution]

It's almost laughable how optimistic you are about this race once it leaves the south. Yes, Bernie will do better (how can he do worse?), but let's see here...

He's STILL trailing in the majority of the states left, let alone thinking he's going to win them by >10% margins. He's behind in the two biggest states yet to vote!!

What polling info do you base this on?

Polling for this election on the Dem side has been atrocious.

Show me a poll for California that isn't 2 months old, show me a poll period for Washington state, or Oregon........................

I mean, that is a 24 point swing for Ohio in weeks, that was a 20 point swing in Michigan. I'm not sure what should be more worrying to Clinton supporters, the idea that the polls are completely wrong, or that 20% + of people are switching support to Sanders in the rust belt..........

 

[Possum Jenkins]

Florida is key as it is the only closed primary on Tuesday for the Dems, although it really doesn't make that much of a difference, if Bernie wins in Illinois, and Ohio. The south is over come this Tuesday.

If Clinton walks out of the south with even a 300 delegate lead, I don't think it will be enough. I live on the west coast, and I don't think people really understand how the west coast is going to break for Bernie. Our primaries are not closed, and if Bernie wins Dems 55-45 here, and continues with his 70-30 domination of Clinton with Independents, the West coast alone may overturn Clinton's delegate lead.

But that would mean that, in total, Bernie would win the western states with 60+. I truly don't think that's going to happen. He's only gotten 60+ in small states. For him to reach that in California would be gigantic and, unfortunately, pretty unlikely.

His most likely favorable scenario is to keep it under 250 after Tuesday, then chip away at that lead throughout the rest of the primary. Bunch of 51-57% wins and take it all the way to the convention.

 

[VivaRevolution]

But that would mean that, in total, Bernie would win the western states with 60+. I truly don't think that's going to happen. He's only gotten 60+ in small states. For him to reach that in California would be gigantic and, unfortunately, pretty unlikely.

His most likely favorable scenario is to keep it under 250 after Tuesday, then chip away at that lead throughout the rest of the primary. Bunch of 51-57% wins and take it all the way to the convention.

I see that as the most likely scenario as well.

I know I shouldn't think Seattle is California, but if it is even close to a reflection, 60-40 is very possible. I know registered Republicans that are staunch Bernie supporters here.

I was at a rally in July that had 40 people at it, that were organizing for Bernie.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

How many southern states are left in the contest......Oh wait?

So you scoff at all the micro polls that have Clinton over Sanders but





__________________________________________________________________________

Sanders barnstorms Midwest as Clinton lead narrows in several states

In Illinois, one of five states holding primaries on Tuesday, a fresh CBS News poll even shows Sanders ahead of Clinton by 2 points.

The story is the same across the Midwest.

In Ohio’s primary, polls show Clinton leading by an average of just 6 percentage points, down from a high of 30 just a few weeks ago. In Missouri, too, Sanders has decidedly closed the gap.

The polling reflects Sanders’ apparent surge in Midwestern and Rust Belt states, possibly propelled by last week's stunning upset of Clinton in the Michigan primary. The territory is proving to be a potential stronghold for the still-underdog self-professed Socialist senator, even as Clinton locks down traditional Democratic support across the South.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ton-lead-narrows-in-several-states/ar-AAgLni2

How many southern states are left in the contest......Oh wait?

__________________________________________________________________________

Sanders barnstorms Midwest as Clinton lead narrows in several states

In Illinois, one of five states holding primaries on Tuesday, a fresh CBS News poll even shows Sanders ahead of Clinton by 2 points.

The story is the same across the Midwest.

In Ohio’s primary, polls show Clinton leading by an average of just 6 percentage points, down from a high of 30 just a few weeks ago. In Missouri, too, Sanders has decidedly closed the gap.

The polling reflects Sanders’ apparent surge in Midwestern and Rust Belt states, possibly propelled by last week's stunning upset of Clinton in the Michigan primary. The territory is proving to be a potential stronghold for the still-underdog self-professed Socialist senator, even as Clinton locks down traditional Democratic support across the South.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ton-lead-narrows-in-several-states/ar-AAgLni2

So you scoff at the plethora of polls that have Clinton over Sanders based on their sampling size -- yet you tout the ONE that has Sanders winning even though its sample size is 94 AND only a +2 lead?

Either you're a hypocrite or disingenuous

 

[VivaRevolution]

So you scoff at the plethora of polls that have Clinton over Sanders based on their sampling size -- yet you tout the ONE that has Sanders winning even though its sample size is 94 AND only a +2 lead?

Either you're a hypocrite or disingenuous

Nope just arguing the counter position in multiple forms.

My first point is that the polling has been horrible so far.

My second point, was that if you reject that notion, that the polls themselves show Sanders doing really well right now.

Maybe I didn't make that clear, but it wasn't meant to be hypocritical, or disingenuous, it was meant to counter multiple counter points.

 

[Possum Jenkins]

I see that as the most likely scenario as well.

I know I shouldn't think Seattle is California, but if it is even close to a reflection, 60-40 is very possible. I know registered Republicans that are staunch Bernie supporters here.

I was at a rally in July that had 40 people at it, that were organizing for Bernie.

Just doing the math real quick, California has 476 delegates. If Bernie wins 60-40, that means he gets about 286 and Hillary 190. That'd cut Hillary's lead by less than 100. So even if Bernie comes out of Tuesday "only" down 250 and nails California 60-40, he's STILL down 150.

He'd need to start razing some of these medium states 70-30.

It's not looking good, unfortunately.