UFN 125 - Anders vs Machida - Brazil

[Sadistics]

I will love to fade Smith, but 5u? Why are you so sure in this bet?

Watch the tape! I don't want to do a whole write up but here's a few factors.

Smith is very vulnerable to kicks, doesn't fight well backing up, is timid until his opponent gasses out. Santos outcardioed Elias, getting a 10-8 in the 3rd. Every kick Santos lands leaves an imprint on his opponent. One of the most potent finishers in the UFC with the ability to end you with any limb to any target and has great follow up gnp.

Smith has had to rally for the finish in his last 3 fights after clearly losing the first rounds. Hasn't been KOed in years but looks to be a bit chinny, Leleco who barely has any stand up turned Smith into a wrestler. If Smith had any countering ability I would be more hesitant but I don't think he can take advantage of Santos' chin high approach. The only round Smith has looked decent in since his return was the 2nd round against Elvis who doesn't belong anywhere near the UFC, yet still took rd1 off Smith.

I see a left body kick to follow up gnp for the early finish.

 

[MacPherson911]

damn Anders is basically unplayable.

 

[Sadistics]

Green/Prazeres O2.5 -180 is gold

 

[null]

I finally have my head back in the MMA game this week. I love Lyoto Machida plus he's the best fighter by far Anders has ever faced so I am tempted to bet him against Anders at that price despite his age and the fact that it's always a huge risk to bet older fighters against such promising younger prospects. Not sure if I'm a sharp or a sucker with this, but 2.5 units (max allowed) on Machida at +245 to win 6.125 units.

 

[Gugabe]

Machida, Dodson, Moraes and Soto seem like great plays as is.

 

[Sham5916910]

Machida, Dodson, Moraes and Soto seem like great plays as is.

You think moraes can get td's?

 

[Gugabe]

You think moraes can get td's?

Easily, and it's not like Means is untouchable on the feet. +190 for Moraes is silly.

 

[kushn4pushin]

First 5u bet of the year, Santos -150

Look at what you did to the line...

 

[Sham5916910]

Easily, and it's not like Means is untouchable on the feet. +190 for Moraes is silly.

He stuffed garcia and 3 of 4 from belal both better td guys than sergio...

 

[raketmannen]

has there ever been a bigger mismatch than Valentina vs Cachoeira? Who even is she?

A former crack addict turned MMA fighter 18 months into her pro career

 

[northsofia]

His last two performances? Lets not underestimate garcia or belal. He also stuffed both their td attempts outside one td belal landed and garcia and belal are both better wrestlers than sergio. Sergio has landed one td in his last five fights. Im more put off that this is in brazil and only one months notice for means not sure he enjoys travelling.

I dont underistamate them, but that does not change the fact that Means was very inactive for most of the time. Sergio has landed only 1 TD in his last 5 fights because he has never faced such reach and striking disadvantage. I dont think he will love to strike with Tim for 3 rounds, this will be e big mistake for him and i am pretty sure he knows this.

 

[Sham5916910]

I dont underistamate them, but that does not change the fact that Means was very inactive for most of the time. Sergio has landed only 1 TD in his last 5 fights because he has never faced such reach and striking disadvantage. I dont think he will love to strike with Tim for 3 rounds, this will be e big mistake for him and i am pretty sure he knows this.

Sergio isnt persistent with td attempts tho he will happily let minutes even rounds go by without going for a td. Im not betting means by the way i just dont have enough faith in sergio here either

The santos line prob means this is a pass for me. Would not be surprised to see dodson throw this fight away by switching off i cant trust him with my money

 

[Sham5916910]

Belèm is hot any ac in the arena? Anders gonnna gas after one round i suspect

 

[vkram]

Belèm is hot any ac in the arena? Anders gonnna gas after one round i suspect

His cardio looked decent in his last fight tbh.

 

[Tommy945]

Alcantara looked horrible in his last few outings. I think Soto is going to pick him apart.

 

[Gugabe]

Alcantara looked horrible in his last few outings. I think Soto is going to pick him apart.

Yeah. Way more happy to forgive Soto for falling into a calf-crusher, even if that was iffy, than Alcantara for looking flat-out horrible. Iuri's a miracle kneebar against Sanders away from being 1-4 in his last 5, and I see Soto comfortably outstriking him.

 

[lefontes]

Belèm is hot any ac in the arena? Anders gonnna gas after one round i suspect

Yes, Belem is very hot city.

 

[Sham5916910]

Yes, Belem is very hot city.

Any idea on ac in the venue?

 

[Gugabe]

Any idea on ac in the venue?

According to google-translated wikipedia, it's AC'd, but it's not like AC is perfect. Also consider the disruptions in sleep for guys coming down from sub-zero temps in the USA.

Also not seeing how Munhoz-Dodson is priced so close. Dodson's not chinny and I wouldn't put Munhoz's striking on the level of the guys that have edged splits over Dodson lately.

 

[Oblivian]

Belèm is hot any ac in the arena? Anders gonnna gas after one round i suspect

I wouldn't assume that at all. Anders looked ok going 5 in LFA and looked ok going 3 in his last fight. Also, it's not like Machida pushes the pace. Anders line is awful though.