UFN 125 - Anders vs Machida - Brazil

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Oblivian said:
I wouldn't assume that at all. Anders looked ok going 5 in LFA and looked ok going 3 in his last fight. Also, it's not like Machida pushes the pace. Anders line is awful though.
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Yeah. I was looking forward to Machida -150 so I could take a stab at Anders +130. Anders also totally dictated the pace in his last fight against a guy with 6 mins of cardio.
 
First plays for me are Praz, Andrade, Soto, Machida, Dodson, Morales, and Anders. I'm considering Moraes.
 
Like Fig/Morales u2.5 +130. Both are finishers, both have heavy hands, both are dangerous on the ground.
 
Man i don't think I'm touching machida. Dude can't take a punch anymore. And Anders packs a big one.
 
Machida at +220 was a no brainer. Anders striking is rudimentary and he’s gotten by on his athleticism

Smith at +220 is a gift line as well. He’s the type of guy that beats Thiago. He can outlast an early onslaught and take advantage of a slower Santos

Dodson’s line is right on imo. He should win the fight but I have problems trusting his output. I think he looks for the kill shot too much and as a result gets outworked. I think his speed and movement will be a problem for Munhoz

Prazeres should be able to take green down and manhandle him

I like golm too. Not really happy I had to pay almost -200 for him.

Like morales as a dog

Vera

Small on soto

Bullet is unplayable.
 
ill800 said:
Machida at +220 was a no brainer. Anders striking is rudimentary and he’s gotten by on his athleticism

Smith at +220 is a gift line as well. He’s the type of guy that beats Thiago. He can outlast an early onslaught and take advantage of a slower Santos

Dodson’s line is right on imo. He should win the fight but I have problems trusting his output. I think he looks for the kill shot too much and as a result gets outworked. I think his speed and movement will be a problem for Munhoz

Prazeres should be able to take green down and manhandle him

I like golm too. Not really happy I had to pay almost -200 for him.

Like morales as a dog

Vera

Small on soto

Bullet is unplayable.
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Why do you like Golm as a near -200 favourite? I think there are too many unknowns about him and Johnson is a solid HW.
 
Oblivian said:
I wouldn't assume that at all. Anders looked ok going 5 in LFA and looked ok going 3 in his last fight. Also, it's not like Machida pushes the pace. Anders line is awful though.
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I have only seen brief highlights of his 5 rounder and i thought he gassed?
 
EzFlyer said:
Man i don't think I'm touching machida. Dude can't take a punch anymore. And Anders packs a big one.
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I just feel like Anders' striking is gonna be pretty rudimentary, and I don't think he's as athletic/hard-hitting as Brunson from what we've seen. I also like the under for this one, I feel like we're either gonna see Machida-Brunson 2, or Dolloway-Machida 2.
 
vkram said:
Why do you like Golm as a near -200 favourite? I think there are too many unknowns about him and Johnson is a solid HW.
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He looks good. He’s got talent. He’s got speed and hits hard. Young. Good gnp

I get it. -200 is too much. Kinda surprised I played it myself but I think it cashes. Johnson doesn’t impress me much. Golm is hungry and he believes in himself
 
Gugabe said:
I just feel like Anders' striking is gonna be pretty rudimentary, and I don't think he's as athletic/hard-hitting as Brunson from what we've seen. I also like the under for this one, I feel like we're either gonna see Machida-Brunson 2, or Dolloway-Machida 2.
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I can easily see machida slumping Anders with a big counter.

Anders has to catch machida and I just don’t think he’s there yet
 
Took u2.5 Anders machida

Took a bunch of o2.5's:
Johnson-golm
Vera-de Andrade
Prazeres-green
 
Gugabe said:
I just feel like Anders' striking is gonna be pretty rudimentary, and I don't think he's as athletic/hard-hitting as Brunson from what we've seen. I also like the under for this one, I feel like we're either gonna see Machida-Brunson 2, or Dolloway-Machida 2.
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It's gnp I think.. Lyoto is terrible at defending shots from bottom, we've seen him get KTFO from gnp a few times... And that's Anders bread and butter
 
ill800 said:
I can easily see machida slumping Anders with a big counter.

Anders has to catch machida and I just don’t think he’s there yet
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Exactly. Machida's been slept hard by Brunson and Romero, who are both unorthodox and hit incredibly hard. I don't think Machida's chin is necessarily gone till I've seen him be taken out by a less notable hitter than those two and I think people are underrating the disparity in striking skill here. I'll probably hedge by Machida play with a Anders KO1 or the u2.5 line but I think Machida deserves more respect than being +255 against Anders.
 
EzFlyer said:
It's gnp I think.. Lyoto is terrible at defending shots from bottom, we've seen him get KTFO from gnp a few times... And that's Anders bread and butter
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Anders still has to close the distance on Machida, which requires some serious striking expertise. How many times has he been KTFO'd from top position? I remember Romero rocking him and then teeing off, which I don't think counts quite the same, and Luke Rockhold's top-control game is one of the best in the sport. I'm not a Machida mark by any means, but this line just feels like pure disrespect and a classic case of the bookmakers looking too hard at the existence of a loss-streak, and not looking into exactly how he's picked up those losses.
 
vkram said:
Playing Andres even as such a big favourite?
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Sorry, meant to put Anders/Machida under 2.5 and must have got sidetracked. I have a play on Machida at +220.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I have only seen brief highlights of his 5 rounder and i thought he gassed?
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I'd have to rewatch again. I actually bet Allen in that fight thinking Anders would gas. I figured it would have more grappling and it would give Anders trouble in a 5 rounder. IIRC, there was a lot of grappling and Anders did fine. I'm sure he slowed down, but from my memory, he still did fine in the later rounds. I definitely don't see any evidence that he's going to gas out really quickly against a guy like Machida.
 
Dodson -122
I think his speed and footwork will be too much against very hittable and plodding Munhoz. Dodson being stupid enough to shoot a TD and get guillotined is a concern though.

Prazeres -128 and O2.5 -200
I like Prazeres volume on the feet and ability to mix in good takedowns with a strong top game to win a dec.

Soto -104
Sotos wrestling should be strong enough to take Alcantara down who doesn't have the best TDD. Soto much better on the ground.

Andrade +120 and O2.5 -128
Andrade will connect om Vera with hard combos. Vera will have to set up his kicks better. Surprised this line hasn't moved.
 
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