UFN 125 - Anders vs Machida - Brazil

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Missing Santos -150 hurts, but the other guys I was looking to bet have come down since openers, so not all bad I suppose. Like Means, Dodson, De Andrade, and Praz/Green over. Hit Green small as well as I think he may have the wrestling to stop Praz tds and his standup is coming along. Hit Soto small as a fade of Luri who looks done at 37. I think Anders probably gets Machida out of there, but did hit Machida small as the line is wide. Digging into Fig/Morales today, but leaning Fig pretape.
 
I haven't read through the thread yet... but I heard this mentioned on MMAJunkie radio... Machida is 0-3 against Southpaws in the UFC.
 
Don't forget judges giving rounds to Brazilian fighters in fights going the distance. For example, Ottow clearly won round 2 against Moraes but every judge gave it to Moraes. The judges were very generous in giving rounds to Moraes against Ramos too. I don't dare play non-brazilians in fights GTD.
MMA Decisions is really a great site.

Someone on reddit listed the best and worst MMA gyms based on fighters results. JacksonWink was one of the worst I think.
Dodson, Alcantara and Vera are listed at JW on Tapology. I won't bet on on JW-guys after Brunson...

Anyone else like Means/Moraes o2.5 @ 1.8? 2.5u
 
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DORIANOS said:
You guys please check me out on Instagram @mmafortuneteller I’ve been killing it $$$. I put a lot of time in on fight footage to find those money makers.
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greenmouse said:
Don't forget judges giving rounds to Brazilian fighters in fights going the distance. For example, Ottow clearly won round 2 against Moraes but every judge gave it to Moraes. The judges were very generous in giving rounds to Moraes against Ramos too. I don't dare play non-brazilians in fights GTD.
MMA Decisions is really a great site.

Someone on reddit listed the best and worst MMA gyms based on fighters results. JacksonWink was one of the worst I think.
Dodson, Alcantara and Vera are listed at JW on Tapology. I won't bet on on JW-guys after Brunson...

Anyone else like Means/Moraes o2.5 @ 1.8? 2.5u
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isn't vera at team oyama?
 
prazeres is an older guy with a lot of muscle mass and a tough weight cut (even at 5'6).

sure he might take green down, but green isn't just going to flop to his back like praz's previous opponents, he'll make the big boy work and drain that gas tank.

i can definitely see it going down like lee/prazeres with green taking over in 2 and 3.
 
Aren't JW 0-20 last 20 UFC fights? I can't bet against a higher power at work.
 
Gugabe said:
Anders still has to close the distance on Machida, which requires some serious striking expertise. How many times has he been KTFO'd from top position? I remember Romero rocking him and then teeing off, which I don't think counts quite the same, and Luke Rockhold's top-control game is one of the best in the sport. I'm not a Machida mark by any means, but this line just feels like pure disrespect and a classic case of the bookmakers looking too hard at the existence of a loss-streak, and not looking into exactly how he's picked up those losses.
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Shogun, Brunson, and yea that was a SAVAGE beating against rockhold
 
DORIANOS said:
You guys please check me out on Instagram @mmafortuneteller I’ve been killing it $$$. I put a lot of time in on fight footage to find those money makers.
Click to expand...
Just seen your pics, you do as good or worse as a lot of people here.
 
piglord said:
prazeres is an older guy with a lot of muscle mass and a tough weight cut (even at 5'6).

sure he might take green down, but green isn't just going to flop to his back like praz's previous opponents, he'll make the big boy work and drain that gas tank.

i can definitely see it going down like lee/prazeres with green taking over in 2 and 3.
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At which point you're hoping to get a close decision against the Brazilian in Brazil

(Devil's advocate)
 
Oblivian said:
I'd have to rewatch again. I actually bet Allen in that fight thinking Anders would gas. I figured it would have more grappling and it would give Anders trouble in a 5 rounder. IIRC, there was a lot of grappling and Anders did fine. I'm sure he slowed down, but from my memory, he still did fine in the later rounds. I definitely don't see any evidence that he's going to gas out really quickly against a guy like Machida.
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He was pretty fresh and delivering some big damage in rd 3 against Perez.. pretty high paced and grueling fight
 
piglord said:
prazeres is an older guy with a lot of muscle mass and a tough weight cut (even at 5'6).

sure he might take green down, but green isn't just going to flop to his back like praz's previous opponents, he'll make the big boy work and drain that gas tank.

i can definitely see it going down like lee/prazeres with green taking over in 2 and 3.
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If you want a bigger confidence increase watch Prazeres/Lazaro
 
Green didn't look bad at all against Khabilov. The Dagestani couldn't take him down and was just a little bit better overall. Green seems to have a good gas tank. A win against Emmett is nice. Prazeres a little stiff on the feet but has the judge advantage being in Brazil but I'm not playing.

Andrade a better play. A bit higher sig-strikes per minute than Vera according to FightMetric. Both a bit hesitant in their latest fights. Maybe Vera could get pressured against the fence as in the Lineker fight.

Think Alcantara can win a controversial decision too (or a with a crazy sub) - ML @2.0. That's his way to victory, Soto has good TDD (70 %) and both fighters haven't got a KO win since 2014. Hedge with Soto SUB.
 
greenmouse said:
Green didn't look bad at all against Khabilov. The Dagestani couldn't take him down and was just a little bit better overall. Green seems to have a good gas tank. A win against Emmett is nice. Prazeres a little stiff on the feet but has the judge advantage being in Brazil but I'm not playing.

Andrade a better play. A bit higher sig-strikes per minute than Vera according to FightMetric. Both a bit hesitant in their latest fights. Maybe Vera could get pressured against the fence as in the Lineker fight.

Think Alcantara can win a controversial decision too (or a with a crazy sub) - ML @2.0. That's his way to victory, Soto has good TDD (70 %) and both fighters haven't got a KO win since 2014. Hedge with Soto SUB.
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He took him down 4 times in the first rd.

Green popped right back up

Hitting the openers can sometimes be a double edged sword for me. I mistook green for someone else who couldn’t wrestle. After watching tape I obviously cap the fight differently now.

Should be closer to a pickem
 
I just watched some tape on Eryk Anders and I think the line is off especially for a guy that only has 2 UFC fights. I was expecting him to open in the -150 range but I do think he takes this one in Belem. I was thinking of playing the under 2.5 but that's getting expensive at -179 but better than Anders ML.

Anders is a pretty good young fighter, smart fight IQ. He paces himself really well which bodes well for this 5 round fight and for a young fighter he is really good at pressuring his opponents and cutting the cage off on them and has them against the fence a lot. He also does a good job of resetting. He also hits really hard, some of those shots that Markus Perez took, present day Machida crumples for sure.

Anders is a pretty big middleweight and if he gets on top of Machida and starts GNP, I don't think Machida escapes and the one thing that made Machida special earlier was his reflexes and after watching some tape, it's not the same anymore especially at his age and some of the beatings he has taken. IMO the guy that's going to hand Anders his first loss is going to submit him but when was the last time Machida submitted someone?
 
Can we debunk this notion that Brazilians get favoritism in Brazil by the judges? I went back and looked at every Brazil event in 2016 and 2017, and there were only 2 questionable decisions that went in Brazil's favor during that time. One of those two (Belfort-Marquardt), is kinda hard to judge because it was a crap fight to begin with. That's a very insignificant amount
 
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Finished De Andrade tape and added another unit, so 2u +118. He varies his power shots nicely and works hard leg kicks, which Lineker had success throwing against Chito. Vera has improved in the past year, but still doesn't have much for consistent offense as he hasn't developed his boxing and he doesn't possess the wrestling to take this to the mat imo. This plays out very similar to Linker matchup with Vera spamming kicks and flying knees while De Andrade lands the more consistent offense and harder shots.
 
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