None of those fights (whether a loss, e.g. Hughes I or Serra I, or a close fight) presented the same range of challenge that prime Hendricks did. That's a demonstrable fact. Karo and Hughes were one-dimensional, BJ was a fucking LW, Condit can't defend a TD to save his life, etc.
I.e. those were easily solvable problems either the first or second time around - which is a credit to GSP's skillset and athleticism (natty or otherwise).
But it also underscores his retirement (at what, age 32?) after Hendricks whupped that ass. GSP said no mas to that shit where before he'd always at least shown up for the (easy) rematch win.
Thus we arrive at: Hendricks retired GSP; GSP never managed to really overcome his greatest challenger in the way that other MMA greats have either done or tried to do.
You are
assuming that GSP decided to retire
because he did not want to rematch Hendricks. That is pure speculation. Your claim that it is because "it is a demonstrable fact that Hendricks presented a greater challenge" is actually speculation.
You discredit him beating Penn for being a LW, but don't give credit for him beating Bisping, who was a MW had just beat Silva, Rockhold, and Henderson. Nor Shields, who was the SF MW champion, with wins over Okami, Lawler, Henderson, Dayley...
Bisping is a lot larger than Georges, has great takedown defense (see his fight with Chael), has range, and was extremely active. He was the favorite in the polls against GSP. Trigg was a very large WW who also competed competitively in MW (beating Misaki, who beat Henderson). Alves was on a large winning streak, had fantastic takedown defense, and is a far better striker than Hendricks. Shields was on a 15 fight winning streak...
Koscheck was an extremely large and powerful wrestler who acquired a lot of punching power later on. He got a shoddy decision against Peirce, and lost to Rick Story. Hendricks
barely beat Koscheck in a split decision, which many think he lost. He won a decision against Condit, but was gassed and getting murked in the third.
Hendricks was as a result
not the favorite in the polls, nor was he considered at the time they fought to be GSPs greatest challenge until that point. It is easy to say that retrospectively because of how the fight went, ignoring the truth about Hendricks. But Hendricks is not 'well rounded' or presents a "greater range of challenge". He is a great wrestler, with lots of power, but doesn't have remarkable striking or BJJ. He also refused to partake in enhanced testing, while GSP willingly submitted himself to it. We know how he looked after USADA came in.
GSP said that he had an announcement to make
before the fight took place. But of course, your thesis is that he had
other plans, won the fight but didn't want the rematch, and so
changed his mind and retired in the last minute to avoid fighting.
I don't think you have any idea how stupid that sounds.