Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - February, 2017

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iGnP said:
Ugh I wish I had seen this, would have told you to be careful Bc Dallas is hot. Obv hindsight is 20/20 but yeah.
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It covered. A bit tight but I'll take it. Even covered with Ferrell still hitting big shots for the Mavs down the stretch. Best part is I hedged out with Dallas at + odds on the ML when the Blazers cut it to 1. So middled it and cashed both.
 
I'm waiting for the total to hit 59 so I can take the under. I strongly feel this game is very even and no one can really cap the side very strongly. I lean towards the Patriots and will probably bet them small just to have money on the game, but the under will be my big play if I can get 59
 
iGnP said:
I'm waiting for the total to hit 59 so I can take the under. I strongly feel this game is very even and no one can really cap the side very strongly. I lean towards the Patriots and will probably bet them small just to have money on the game, but the under will be my big play if I can get 59
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It's a high total, but man I don't see either defense having much success. It could definitely stay under, but even if it hits I doubt it's by much. No way this game is something like 24-17. I could see something like 30-24 maybe. But I could also see 38-31 or something like that.
 
mkess101 said:
It's a high total, but man I don't see either defense having much success. It could definitely stay under, but even if it hits I doubt it's by much. No way this game is something like 24-17. I could see something like 30-24 maybe. But I could also see 38-31 or something like that.
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Pats had the number one scoring defense in the league. I don't expect them to hold the Falcons to under 20 but the projected score according to the line and total is 31-28 NE, which I think is high for both teams. Falcons have been playing better defense lately but they have too many young guys on defense that I know the Patriots can/will try to exploit. Given that Bellicheck had two weeks to prepare, I think he will be able to slow them down. Don't forget, they limited the greatest show on turf to 17 points in their first super bowl

edit: they allowed 17 against the Rams but it was only 3 (!!!) until the fourth quarter when the Rams scored 2 TDs
 
iGnP said:
Pats had the number one scoring defense in the league. I don't expect them to hold the Falcons to under 20 but the projected score according to the line and total is 31-28 NE, which I think is high for both teams. Falcons have been playing better defense lately but they have too many young guys on defense that I know the Patriots can/will try to exploit. Given that Bellicheck had two weeks to prepare, I think he will be able to slow them down. Don't forget, they limited the greatest show on turf to 17 points in their first super bowl

edit: they allowed 17 against the Rams but it was only 3 (!!!) until the fourth quarter when the Rams scored 2 TDs
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For sure Bill and Patricia will have a solid gameplan. But remember when they held that Rams team to 17 the rules were WAY different. Playing that way now would have multiple flags on every play for illegal contact and PI. They changed the rules based on how NE mugged WR's back then LOL.

I'm leaning ATL and maybe their TT o27.5 if juice drops.

Atlanta will motion their backs out a lot and force NE to show how they are covering. Ryan and Shannahan are in such a groove right now. NE can't play Julio straight up, even with Butler. And if they roll coverage to him or double him, there's too many other weapons.

NE will move the ball too. I think they'll actually pound it with Blount more than normal though. That could help your under by killing clock potentially.
 
Alright homies forget the game, lets discuss real business here

The ridiculous props.

Ones that stick out to me as potentially worth some money: Any player kneels during national anthem +800 (seems like theres always that guy, no?), 'Lacrosse' not said during broadcast +350, 'Gronk' said over 3 times +135 (feel like this could hit in literally one quick discussion about him), Kraft shown on TV o2.5 times -115 (if this is a close game or Patriots are winning feel like this is possible even though line is meh), Trump picks Atlanta to win +1200 (hes gotta pick the dog, right? EDIT forgot Brady was a vocal Trump supporter though....hmmm....), Tweets from Trump under 7.5 +130 (cmon no way he tweets that much during Super Bowl LOL), More TDs than tweets from @POTUS on twitter +290,

Also just wanna say LOL @ a line for 'player seen deflating a ball on TV'
 
Joseph Budden said:
Alright homies forget the game, lets discuss real business here

The ridiculous props.

Ones that stick out to me as potentially worth some money: Any player kneels during national anthem +800 (seems like theres always that guy, no?), 'Lacrosse' not said during broadcast +350, 'Gronk' said over 3 times +135 (feel like this could hit in literally one quick discussion about him), Kraft shown on TV o2.5 times -115 (if this is a close game or Patriots are winning feel like this is possible even though line is meh), Trump picks Atlanta to win +1200 (hes gotta pick the dog, right? EDIT forgot Brady was a vocal Trump supporter though....hmmm....), Tweets from Trump under 7.5 +130 (cmon no way he tweets that much during Super Bowl LOL), More TDs than tweets from @POTUS on twitter +290,

Also just wanna say LOL @ a line for 'player seen deflating a ball on TV'
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Brady and Trump are really good friends. You think he's gonna pick against Brady? lol
 
No prop (yet) for Gaga showing some titties like there was for Beyonce. That was my favorite prop last year :(

Thought since Gaga is such a slore the line for her to not show any would be like +300 and I would've hit it
 
I see this game as 28-24 either way. I agree with @iGnP that one can't be too confident in this game and that arguments can be made for both sides, which normally is true but especially here. Falcons seem to have the better offense but do they? It doesn't matter who is in at qb, wr, or te the Pats don't miss a beat and still score points. Patriots seem to have the better defense but with the 2 defensive ends that the Falcons have they could perhaps give Brady some trouble and the Falcons play Brees, Cam, and Jameis 6x/year.
 
mkess101 said:
For sure Bill and Patricia will have a solid gameplan. But remember when they held that Rams team to 17 the rules were WAY different. Playing that way now would have multiple flags on every play for illegal contact and PI. They changed the rules based on how NE mugged WR's back then LOL.

I'm leaning ATL and maybe their TT o27.5 if juice drops.

Atlanta will motion their backs out a lot and force NE to show how they are covering. Ryan and Shannahan are in such a groove right now. NE can't play Julio straight up, even with Butler. And if they roll coverage to him or double him, there's too many other weapons.

NE will move the ball too. I think they'll actually pound it with Blount more than normal though. That could help your under by killing clock potentially.
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That is true. This is the reason I don't like totals in general. For as good of an argument that you can give me for 'over', there are as many reasons to play 'under'. I think 56.5 or whatever it opened at was the right total and I'd take u59 because of line value and since its a key number in a 31-28 game. IDK ill maybe just pass. Also think we get line value because of HOW awesome the Falcons have looked recently but they ran up scores on some pretty bad defenses. Their offensive point totals against the better defenses were: 23 against the Broncos (w/ Lynch as qb*), 24 against healthy Seahawks, 15 against the Eagles, 23 against the Chargers when the Chargers D was playing well, 28 against the Chiefs, and 38 against the Cardinals. Now we cant ignore the Cardinals game, but 28 is high considering the Pats defense on extra rest should be of the same caliber as the teams I listed.

edit: in the last sentence, 28 referred to the Falcons TT. I think both TTs are inflated a bit but more so the Falcons
 
Timberwolves ML +102 risk: 1u to win 1.02u

I know LaVine is out and as good as he is offensively, I think the Wolves are a better team defensively with him off the floor. In three games without him this season, the Wolves are 3-0 and have large margins of victory over the Lakers (+26), Rockets (+14), and OKC (+10). More so, this is the 6th straight road game for the Memphis Grizzlies so fatigue might be setting in. This is the final meeting between these two teams- the home team has won and covered the spread is each of the previous meetings. I'm hesitant, however, to bet a large amount on the Wolves right now. If you ignore their recent game against the Nets (the Nets suck and get blown out by most teams), the Wolves haven't covered a spread since Jan 19th
 
iGnP said:
Timberwolves ML +102 risk: 1u to win 1.02u

I know LaVine is out and as good as he is offensively, I think the Wolves are a better team defensively with him off the floor. In three games without him this season, the Wolves are 3-0 and have large margins of victory over the Lakers (+26), Rockets (+14), and OKC (+10). More so, this is the 6th straight road game for the Memphis Grizzlies so fatigue might be setting in. This is the final meeting between these two teams- the home team has won and covered the spread is each of the previous meetings. I'm hesitant, however, to bet a large amount on the Wolves right now. If you ignore their recent game against the Nets (the Nets suck and get blown out by most teams), the Wolves haven't covered a spread since Jan 19th
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Last time they played LaVine actually had the worst +/- at -17 further solidifying your point. Taking a look now.
 
iGnP said:
Timberwolves ML +102 risk: 1u to win 1.02u

I know LaVine is out and as good as he is offensively, I think the Wolves are a better team defensively with him off the floor. In three games without him this season, the Wolves are 3-0 and have large margins of victory over the Lakers (+26), Rockets (+14), and OKC (+10). More so, this is the 6th straight road game for the Memphis Grizzlies so fatigue might be setting in. This is the final meeting between these two teams- the home team has won and covered the spread is each of the previous meetings. I'm hesitant, however, to bet a large amount on the Wolves right now. If you ignore their recent game against the Nets (the Nets suck and get blown out by most teams), the Wolves haven't covered a spread since Jan 19th
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With you. Wolves and Suns are my leans today. It looks like they pulled the line and adjusted it after Levine was ruled out. 0.5u Wolves +2.5 for me. Going to wait and see if I can get any better than Suns +1. As bad as the Suns are the Bucks have been downright awful lately and shouldn't be road favs IMO.
 
t6p said:
With you. Wolves and Suns are my leans today. It looks like they pulled the line and adjusted it after Levine was ruled out. 0.5u Wolves +2.5 for me. Going to wait and see if I can get any better than Suns +1. As bad as the Suns are the Bucks have been downright awful lately and shouldn't be road favs IMO.
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Gasol, Allen, and Parsons all ruled out ;)
 
iGnP said:
Gasol, Allen, and Parsons all ruled out ;)
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Oh man, I went to add another 0.5u and they pulled the line again lol. Wolves will surely be favs now.
 
t6p said:
Oh man, I went to add another 0.5u and they pulled the line again lol. Wolves will surely be favs now.
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Agreed. Prob -4.5 range?
 
1st coaches challenge is overturned +110

Supposedly, both coaches combined only lost 1 challenge throughout the entire season and I am pretty sure they won't throw one unless they are pretty damn confident, given the circumstances
 
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