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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 28, 2016.
I'm not playing it, but rooting for Shaman Ghost in the Big Cap.
Don't think Dortmund liked the Turf ! Finished last. At 5/1 it was worth the risk to me. Still a good night thanks to sharks picks.
Shaman Ghost with a nice win in the Big Cap. Looked like he started backing up midway through the far turn a little bit, but regrouped and made a nice late run to the wire.
Shit, I didn't notice this when watching the race live, but Term of Art was actually much closer to Iliad at the line that I originally thought he was. If the race was another 50 yards or so we could've been cashing a nice 40/1 exacta. Yeah, I'm greedy like that.
This year's Derby winner getting ready to roll in the Rebel this weekend after getting his final workout for the race in yesterday.
Because I'm a dork like this, I've also watched the videos and calculated all of the stride rates of the Rebel probables already save for one, who looks like a no-hoper on paper anyways.
The four probables that I like in order;
American Anthem - 24 strides early, 26 strides late during an 8F race after running a Brisnet E1 pace of 108 and an E2 pace of 112 while being pressured and dueling with Gormley for most of the race. Little wasted motion with this guy. He has stride length, length maintenance, and stride frequency. Only small concern I may have is that race may have taken something out of Gormley, so it's possible here as well. Gormley was put into a tough position yesterday around the far turn, though, when he was between horses and had pressure from both sides. Not uncommon at all for the middle horse to concede first when caught in that position. American Anthem's training says he'll be just fine too.
Petrov - 26 strides early, 27.5 strides late during an 8.5F race after running an E1 of 98 and an E2 of 101. His race prior to that at 8F he took 26 strides early and 27 strides late after an E1 of 96 and an E2 of 99. In those races it was left to him to chase Uncontested on the lead, which is not likely to be the case this weekend. He also had to deal with One Timer right after putting away Uncontested in the last race. He didn't get a break. He can sit back and relax a little more in the Rebel I think. Decent stride length, very good length maintenance, and okay stride frequency. If American Anthem stubs his toe I think this guy could be the one to capitalize.
Lookin At Lee - 25.5 strides early in both of his races at 8.5F, and 26.5/27 late after running very similar E1's and E2's of 75 and 90 in both. Good stride length and length maintenance, although average at best stride frequency. He's more plodder than a closer with a quick turn of foot, but he'll be running late once again and passing tired horses. Not likely to win, but has a good chance to finish in the trifecta and possibly grab 2nd.
Silver Dust - 26 strides early, 27.5/28 in his races at 8F and 8.5F. His last race he ran an E1 of 90 and an E2 of 91, which would actually make him fit the E2 lung opener angle as it was his first race back off a layoff (had ran E2's of 76 and 80 before that). He also looked like he gained about 5 lengths on the backstretch in his last race before leveling off late to some extent. Still kept to running though, and was able to finish 4th in the Southwest. He still runs a little green, but should improve this next race and could fill out a trifecta at a big price. Maybe even an exacta if the race falls apart late.
The four I don't like and who are all going to be bet to some extent;
Uncontested - 24 strides early in each of his last two races with a stride rate of 26 late in his race at 8F and at least 27 in his last race at 8.5F (counted the 7-8F portion because he fell back). He had E1's of 99 & 100 in those races and E2's of 102 & 104, but both times he sat unpressured on the lead so he was able to relax even though he was moving at a pretty good clip. He's got a lot of length to his stride, but runs ugly while doing so. There's a whole lot of moving parts to him that do nothing but waste energy in a horse. He also runs kinda stiff legged. Might be dangerous with an easy lead in the Rebel, but like his last race, I don't think he sees the wire near the front.
Royal Mo - 24.5 strides early, 27 strides late in a 8.5F race after running an E1 of 89 and an E2 of 95 while recieving little pressure from other horses. Very good stride length, but poor stride length maintenance and was really struggling at the end of the Bob Lewis even though he won. He loses that race if anybody even half decent showed up for it. He also doesn't much in the way of stride frequency compared to the other long striding types in this field. I would expect the early pace of the Rebel will be faster than this guy's last race, and I don't think he'll be able to keep up in the late going as they hit the turn. Don't like this guy at all.
Untrapped - 25.5 strides early, 28 strides late in a race at 8.5F after running an E1 pace of 76 and an E2 pace of 82. Shows good stride strength early, but poor length maintenance, and I think the fact that he was able to come along and finish 2nd in the Risen Star says more about the competition than him. Might grab a piece if there's a hot pace battle up front, but others of this type look more appealing.
Malagacy - 27 strides early and 30 strides late in a 6.5F race last time out after running an E1 of 100 and E2 of 108. Might have been slowed by a half a stride or so near the line because he was well in front, but no more than that. Will get his share of support due to being a Pletcher trainee who popped a 95 BSF in that last race of his, which is a BSF right in line with what some of these others have gotten (American Anthem, Uncontested, Petrov, Royal Mo are all mid 90's). Has the quick short stride of a sprinter and nothing more.
Everybody is already adjusting their Derby top 10 lists after yesterday's races, so I figured, what the hell, I might as well offer up mine;
1 - American Anthem
2 - Tapwrit
3 - Gunnevera
4 - (vacant)
5 - (doesn't matter)
6 - (who cares)
7 - (no chance)
8 - (clown show)
9 - (a donkey)
10 - McCraken (maybe)
Iliad got a 95 BSF after throwing in the towel with over a furlong to go in the San Felipe yesterday. Term of Art got a 92 for his clunk up job. For the sake of comparison, Tapwrit only got a 96 for winning his race and doing so in stakes record time. They're basically saying that Tapwrit only ran a half length better than Iliad. I mean, come on.
cheltenham starts tomorrow
i like Melon in the first race at 5/2
Vroum Vroum mag in the champion hurdle at 9/4 and Brain Power 13/2
re: Silver Dust who is set to run in the Rebel this weekend;
I mentioned this above, but take note of where he was positioned at the pole signifying a quarter mile has been run at the 0:26 mark of the following video. He's the light grey #2 horse. Now take note of his positioning at the 5F pole at the 1:02 mark of the video. He gained about 4 lengths on the leader, Uncontested, who, at that time, was still running sub 12 second furlongs. Silver Dust was making that move in his first start off a 3 month layoff as well, which probably contributed to him flattening out some around the far turn. He still stuck it out pretty gamely in the stretch, though, and got up for 4th just missing 3rd by a half length. This is one of those occasions when both the E2 and middle move angle are one and the same, and that was a pretty strong middle move by a horse coming in off a layoff. He's also a horse that is very likely to be at least 20/1 in the Rebel, if not 30/1, and who'll have a race shape in the Rebel that should benefit his style of running. He probably won't win, but at 20/1 minimum he could be the one to spice up those exotics by finishing 2nd or 3rd.
Post position draw for the Rebel;
1 - Silver Bullion - 30/1
2 - Uncontested - 10/1
3 - Sonneteer - 30/1
4 - Petrov - 9/2
5 - Untrapped - 8/1
6 - Malagacy - 4/1
7 - American Anthem - 2/1
8 - Silver Dust - 15/1
9 - Appalachian Gem - 30/1
10 - Royal Mo - 9/2
11 - Lookin at Lee - 15/1
All four of the horses I'm interested in drew well enough. Petrov should get a nice rail trip with Uncontested likely to go out for the early lead, and the #1 & #3 being pure closer types. American Anthem drew outside both Uncontested and Malagacy, so he should get a nice stalking/just behind trip, and he'll also have room to move over as well. Both Silver Dust and Lookin at Lee will be fine since their style is to come from off the pace. I have no interest in him, but Royal Mo got a tough draw being outside like that. He may be forced to go early. Or sit back and take up a position he's not all that accustomed to.
Free past performances for the Rebel if anyone is interested;
I've been thinking about how I want to structure my wagers for this race for almost an hour now, and I'm really struggling with it for some reason. I have a clear #1 in American Anthem who'll be short odds. I have a clear #2 in Petrov who should go off a very decent odds as maybe the 4th or 5th choice. And I have two clear #3's in Lookin at Lee and Silver Dust. It should seem pretty obvious how I play this race, but part of me wants to spread a little bit with those four runners, increase my bankroll for this race, and maybe try for a pretty decent score in the exotics by beating out my #1 in the top spot. What to do, what to do. I still have a couple of days to go, though, so I don't need to rush. Plus the bright side is that I won't have to watch videos of horses running around the track in slow motion while counting their steps for the next little while.
The early impressions I got are that Royal Mo, Malagacy or Untrapped with be vying for 2nd choice in the betting behind American Anthem on Saturday. Not seeing much support for Petrov at all in comparison to those three, which is fantastic. I've also pretty much decided that I'm not going to try to get too cute for this race. I have an opinion on who wins this race and have an opinion on who look to have the best chances to run 2nd or 3rd. I've come to my senses and I'll be betting accordingly.
Editted to include the morning line odds.
I wouldn't bet a nickel on Malagacy at 40/1 nevermind if getting him at 4/1. In his debut race at 5.5F he took 27 strides early, 29 strides late after running an E1 of 97 and E2 of 106. In his next start at 6.5F he again took 27 strides and then 30 strides late after running an E1 of 100 and E2 of 108. He ran a fast pace early in both of those races, but if you can't do a very good job of maintaining your stride length (and stride frequency as well) at those distances how the hell are you going to be able to do so when forced to run a fast early pace in a 8.5F race and doing so against much better horses who also have 2+ feet of length in their strides? He won't. Even in his workouts he's showing that short quick stride of a pure sprinter, as I had him covering his final furlong of a 5F workout in 28.5 strides. That's after having conserved his energy in the early portion of the workout. The only way this pure sprinter should be 4/1 is if it was odds on who would run dead last, and that 4/1 in that case would actually represent pretty good value.
Alright, I'm a little bored right now and since I have nothing left to figure out with this race I figured I might as well come up with a little breakdown on how I think the Rebel plays out.
Positioning as they hit the backstretch;
The #2 Uncontested goes to the lead from his inside post with the #6 Malagacy prompting a fast pace just to his inside. Or maybe vice versa, and Malagacy is able to get the early lead with Uncontested chasing him. Either or. The #7 American Anthem sits just behind those two in the early running with #4 Petrov, #10 Royal Mo, and #1 Silver Bullion grouped together in a pack just behind him. The rest are looking to come from off the pace.
Positioning as they round the far turn;
#2, #7...#4...#6,#10, #5,#8...#1,#11..#3,#9
Malagacy has given way at this point, and has left American Anthem to challenge Uncontested, which isn't going to work out that well for Uncontested since he's already showed a lack of inners when challenged late in a race on two different occasions already when a horse gets up alongside of him late in a race. Petrov is ready to take advantage of Uncontested fading at that point and looks to follow American Anthem in the stretch. Royal Mo is running an even race at this point, and the likes of Untrapped, Silver Dust and Lookin at Lee are starting to move up a bit.
Positioning as they hit the wire;
#7.....#4....#8,#11(or vice versa)...#5..#10,#2..#3.....#6...#1.....#9
American Anthem puts away Uncontested coming off the turn and it's clear sailing from there. Petrov shows his gameness once again and keeps trying, but can't run with the winner in the late going. Silver Dust and Lookin at Lee are left to battle well behind the winner for 3rd. Untrapped can't close as well as the other two in the stretch so he has to settle for 5th. Royal Mo runs an even race all around the track and doesn't have the quickness or stamina to make any sort of run in the stretch. He's never involved nor looks a threat at all. Uncontested fades badly in the stretch after having been forced to look American Anthem in the eye. Sonneteer slowly plods along, passes a couple of dead tired horses but nothing more. The other three are looking to find a spot to lay down with over a furlong to go.
And that be that. Just my opinion of course.
1st - American Anthem by 5 lengths
2nd - Petrov a couple/few lengths ahead of 3rd
3rd - Lookin at Lee or Silver Dust
My prediction is that 48 hours from now people will be tweeting out "Mastery who?".
Next weeks prep races are the Spiral, UAE Derby, and Sunland Derby. I may look at the Sunland Derby a little bit, although I'm leaning towards not betting them as of now since I doubt any of the runners will be on my Derby radar throughout April. I'm a little interested in how the Japanese horse, Epicharis, does next weekend, though. I'll be much more of a fan next weekend I think with Arrogate and others running in the Dubai World Cup, as well as a lot of other great racing from Meydan that day. Mind Your Biscuits should be running in the sprint race over there. I think Highland Reel is going over there. Going to be a lot of good horses gathering for some good racing.
Post 10,000 has to go to this guy since I've been talking him up some, right?
Well shit, I fucked that up. I thought you reached silver belt level when you had 10,000 posts.