Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Nice, going to bookmark this page.

Excited to see Gunnevera run again.

Hopefully Gunnevera runs a good race tomorrow, but I'm not sure what to expect from him to be honest. He's clearly the best horse in the race and the stand out on paper going in, although I've heard some mixed signals about how he's looked coming into the race in his workouts. I saw his last one when he was working by himself and he looked just okay. Didn't seem to stand out as much as he did going into his last race. Rumour has it that he's also lost a little bit of weight as well. Couple that with how speed favouring Gulfstream is on it's big days, and the fact that Gunnevera doesn't need to win the race to gain entry in the Derby, I might try to beat him tomorrow with somebody like State of Honor who has some things going for him. State of Honor should be up close to the pace in the race tomorrow, and I'm not sure it'll be particularly fast. The track may carry him all the way to the wire if it plays the way I think it might. State of Honor has always had a good stride on him as far as length and maintenance goes. He's also getting the blinkers taken off, which has been a very strong move for his trainer in recent times (3 for 7 for the win, and 6 for 7 to hit the board). My guess is that they expect him to stalk off of Three Rules, which could mean a very nice trip for him. He might be who I lean to if close to his 8/1 morning line odds.

 

[Sharkey]

5dimes has some odds on the Derby winner. All horses have action regardless if horse runs:

McCraken +550
Gunnevera +875
Thunder Snow +1200
Classic Empire +1250
One Liner +1250
Tapwrit +1000
Malagacy +1300
Unique Bella +1300
J Boys Echo +1600
Epicharis wins +1750
Irish War Cry +1750
Practical Joke +1800
El Areeb +2200
Battalion +2500
Mo Town +2550
Girvin +3000
Gormley +3000
Iliad +3000
Uncontested +3000
Always Dreaming +3300
Good Samaritan +3300
Guest Suite +3300
Hence +3300
American Anthem +3500
Beach Bum +3500
Cloud Computing +3500
Petrov +3500
Lookin At Lee +3750
Untrapped +3750
Royal Mo +4000
No Dozing +4250
Faja +5000
State of Honor +5250
Action Everyday +5500
Wild Shot +5500
Three Rules +6000
Hemsworth +6750
Takaful +10000

What a mess, T. I'm not sure who I'd be willing to back at those odds there. I still believe somewhat in American Anthem given that he had some excuses for his shitty performance in the Rebel (missed break, lost his shoe, got rank, etc), but it's hard to forgive him completely for that race and then expect him to run big in the Derby. At +3500 I could be tempted though (uh, I have him 16/1 for the Derby...ugh), since I still think he's among the most talented runners in this year's crop. I would expect a big rebound from him in next week's Santa Anita Derby, so it may be worth the flyer. Beyond him I don't see much value in those lines considering most still have to run their final prep and may not even make the field for whatever reason.

 

[Sharkey]

For the record, Battalion Runner is expected to scratch out of the Florida Derby tomorrow. He was really only entered as insurance for Pletcher in case Always Dreaming drew a bad post, which wasn't the case.

 

[Sharkey]

Out of the two prep races tomorrow the Louisiana Derby looks like it's more likely to open up for an off the pace type to win in my opinion. We have Local Hero entered, and he's been on the lead in each of his last three races including him being a run off in his last race when he pulled the rider. We have Monaco who should be sitting up close to the lead. We also have the horse on the outside, Hotfoot, who's a cheap speed type and only entered in this race as a rabbit for Girvin (same owner & trainer). If Local Hero refuses to relax again like his last race then this pace battle could be hot between him and the rabbit. That means it could shape up very well for a longshot like Senior Investment who'll be running near or at the back of the pack in the early going. Senior Investment is coming into this race having finished 1st in each of his last three races, and what's impressive about that to me is that he's winning these races while closing into soft fractions with each of those races 48+ seconds to the half mile. The quality of competition wasn't all that great in those fields, but it takes talent to close into those fractions regardless of opposition. This guy's a solid horse and runs very professionally for his age. He basically knows what his job is unlike a lot of these three year-olds who are still trying to figure things out. Senior Investment has also been improving his figures from race to race as well, and considering his workout pattern going into the race tomorrow has also shown improvement as far as time goes (4 workouts since last race on Feb 18th is a plus), it looks like he's sitting on the best race of his life so far. And he'll need to run the best race of his life too. He has to improve. But I think he could do it at a very nice price. He has nice stride length, and excellent stride maintenance. He's shown very good late stride length in each of his recent races, which could play quite well for the long stretch run to the wire over the Fair Grounds track.

 

[t6p]

What a mess, T. I'm not sure who I'd be willing to back at those odds there. I still believe somewhat in American Anthem given that he had some excuses for his shitty performance in the Rebel (missed break, lost his shoe, got rank, etc), but it's hard to forgive him completely for that race and then expect him to run big in the Derby. At +3500 I could be tempted though (uh, I have him 16/1 for the Derby...ugh), since I still think he's among the most talented runners in this year's crop. I would expect a big rebound from him in next week's Santa Anita Derby, so it may be worth the flyer. Beyond him I don't see much value in those lines considering most still have to run their final prep and may not even make the field for whatever reason.

Yea, I think at this point it's probably best to wait until we get closer to the Derby and we have a better idea who's running for sure. Sometimes you can lock in some nice odds with them if you know who you want to play a week or two before the big races. The American Anthem line did stand out a bit to me though too. I'm considering putting a small flyer on it.

 

[Sharkey]

Yea, I think at this point it's probably best to wait until we get closer to the Derby and we have a better idea who's running for sure. Sometimes you can lock in some nice odds with them if you know who you want to play a week or two before the big races. The American Anthem line did stand out a bit to me though too. I'm considering putting a small flyer on it.

American Anthem still looks like one of the stronger Derby win candidates to me along with Tapwrit, Gunnevera and McCraken, who are listed as the three favourites on those lines you posted. But American Anthem still has to run well enough next week to earn the points for Derby entry, so there's no guarantee he even makes it. If he does run well enough to make the field, though, we're probably looking at no more than 12/1 on Derby day since he'd be going into the Derby off a top 2 finish in a G1 race and considering who's training him. With Mastery off the trail there really isn't a whole lot out there on the west coast besides some distanced challenged horses like Gormley & Iliad, and then a plodder like Term of Art. Rumour has it that Battalion Runner will race the Santa Anita Derby as well after he scratches out tomorrow, but he's not one I'm terribly high on either. American Anthem's stiffest competition next week may come from the other Baffert runner, Reach the World, who I mentioned a couple of weeks ago as someone to keep on eye out for. He may be worth the flyer.

 

[Sharkey]

Most of those horses in that +1000 to +2000 range look to be lacking as 10F horses or have something else going on that detracts from them. One Liner, Malagacy, J Boys Echo, Irish War Cry, Thunder Snow, Classic Empire, Practical Joke, etc. Things may change once this last round of prep races finishes, but I don't see a Derby winner in that group at all. There's really not much that's appealing in the +3000 range either besides maybe Lookin At Lee who'll probably be in the 30/1 range come Derby day anyways if he even makes the field.

 

[Sharkey]

Louisiana Derby; #4 Senior Investment (12/1 ML) to win and place for 2u each.

Florida Derby; #1 State of Honour (8/1 ML) to win for 2u.


The Florida Derby is a tough race to like much in. Gunnevera is clearly the best horse in the race, but there are signs with him that point to a possible regression as the even money favourite (just okay workouts, may have lost weight, slower pace to run into on a possible if not likely speed favouring track, big new top on thorograph, etc., etc.). We're supposed to bet against those types of horses in spots like this. The thing is, though, is that he can regress some and still beat this field because there's really not a whole lot in it besides a couple of decent sorts, one or two with some potential, and then half the field made up of filler. Always Dreaming looks okay, but he's not someone I want to back as the 2nd choice at 2/1 or thereabouts. He's the one with some potential, as he has a decent enough stride on him and has had some nice workouts lately. But there's still lots of questions there with him. How does he do when presented with a faster pace than the crawls he's been taking part in. Can he finally relax when a horse is sitting outside him or is he going to pull like he's shown in his workouts? A few other questions as well. But at 2/1 with some questions and a big class test I can't back him. Three Rules is a plucky likeable sort who generally gives his all, but he also had a tough effort in his last race as well when dueling with Irish War Cry on the lead, and then not getting much of a break before being set upon by Practical Joke then Gunnevera. That was a big effort by him, but also one that may leave him a little short this race since he hasn't had much time to freshen up since that last race of his. Also, the post he drew towards the outside does him no favours. He's going to have to go to avoid getting put wide. So I basically landed on State of Honor if somewhat by default. He's got some things going for him as well, though. His running style should suit him fine being fairly close early. He's got one of the top two or three strides in this race based on length and maintenance. He's been a consistent sort who's been improving slowly. Paired up his BSF last race, so a jump up may be in order. The move with taking the blinkers off has been good for his trainer, and should help the horse relax behind Three Rules. Etc, etc. I don't love State of Honor in this race since I don't see him as being much of a Derby contender at all going forward. But in this spot, and with some questions regarding the other three main "contenders", he's about the only one I can get behind betting at the odds he should be going off as.

 

[Sharkey]

It's funny. The Blue Grass was downgraded from a G1 to a G2 this year yet it may end up being the strongest prep race going into the Derby with both Tapwrit and McCraken likely to enter. Unless Gunnevera romps again later today, that Blue Grass is likely to produce the Derby favourite depending who wins the Tapwrit-McCraken rematch. Who knows. If it's a competive race between the two that's decided by a length or so it may even produce the top two choices for the Derby. Gonna be a very interesting race should both enter regardless.

 

[Sharkey]

http://www.xbtv.com/watch-live/

If playing the Florida Derby and wanting to watch the race live online. Set to go at 6:40 ET. The Louisiana Derby is set to go 15-20 minutes before that race, although I'm not sure if XBTV will be showing it on their site or not.

 

[Sharkey]

Louisiana Derby; #4 Senior Investment (12/1 ML) to win and place for 2u each.

Florida Derby; #1 State of Honour (8/1 ML) to win for 2u.

I'm also gonna play a couple of insurance type exactas just in case Gunnevera is ready to fire a good effort today. If he does then I don't see anybody beating him. I'll throw Three Rules in there as well just in case that last race didn't take anything out of him. Gunnevera over State of Honor/Three Rules for 1u each to go along with those other plays of mine today. Best of luck to anybody else playing these races today.

 

[t6p]

I'm also gonna play a couple of insurance type exactas just in case Gunnevera is ready to fire a good effort today. If he does then I don't see anybody beating him. I'll throw Three Rules in there as well just in case that last race didn't take anything out of him. Gunnevera over State of Honor/Three Rules for 1u each to go along with those other plays of mine today. Best of luck to anybody else playing these races today.

Tailing everything. Thanks for posting and GL!

 

[timmyclax22]

I'm also gonna play a couple of insurance type exactas just in case Gunnevera is ready to fire a good effort today. If he does then I don't see anybody beating him. I'll throw Three Rules in there as well just in case that last race didn't take anything out of him. Gunnevera over State of Honor/Three Rules for 1u each to go along with those other plays of mine today. Best of luck to anybody else playing these races today.

I'm in too thank you!

Always Dreaming seems to be a pretty popular pick today. You're not high on him?

 

[Sharkey]

I'm in too thank you!

Always Dreaming seems to be a pretty popular pick today. You're not high on him?

Not at the price he's likely to go off as, no. He'll probably be sitting between 2/1 and 3/1. He got to set some soft fractions in his last two races against weak horses, especially in his last one which was glacial, and I'm not sure how he'll react to a stronger pace with the addition of pace pressure. He gets over aggressive in his morning workouts when inside his workmates.I could get interested in him if he was 6/1 or something. But at half or even a third those odds I have to look elsewhere. He is one of the four win contenders, though, based largely on potential.

 

[Sharkey]

Doesn't look like I'll be watching the Louisiana Derby live as it happens unless I can find a stream somewhere. XBTV doesn't appear like they'll be showing it.

 

[Sharkey]

Twitter is telling me Girvin won the Louisiana Derby with Patch finishing 2nd. No idea where Senior Investment finished, but obviously not good enough to cash a ticket.

 

[Sharkey]

Gunnevera is sitting at 2/5 with a couple minutes to post. Yikes. Always Dreaming 2nd choice at 5/2, and State of Honor 3rd choice at 8/1.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm loving the way State of Honor looks out there on the track pre-race.

 

[Sharkey]

1st - Always Dreaming
2nd - State of Honor
3rd - Gunnevera

Shitty.

 

[t6p]

1st - Always Dreaming
2nd - State of Honor
3rd - Gunnevera

Shitty.

Damn it, I thought we were looking good and Always Dreaming just killed it down the stretch. Oh well, can't win em all. Thanks anyway for the picks Shark.