Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Wow what an awesome performance. I wish I had been able to catch it live.

 

[Sharkey]

If true, this is quite a kick in the gut.

 

[Sharkey]

Should we help Irish War Cry's trainer out here and let him know the real reasoning behind his horse's lack of performance today?

 

[gcoogan1]

great call sharkey, wish i had staked more. Won so easily

 

[t6p]

If true, this is quite a kick in the gut.

Ah damn. I hate hearing stuff like this.

 

[Sharkey]

Ah damn. I hate hearing stuff like this.

Me too, T. Just by the way he was acting before the race he may have had something going on even before they hit the gate. Something was obviously bothering the poor guy as he made it quite clear the he didn't want to be there for whatever reason. With the way things turned out for him that is entirely a possibility. It always sucks when shit like this happens.

 

[Sharkey]

The Fountain of Youth runners ranked in order based on my interest in betting them as far as their chances to hit the board as I see it, and with their odds being considered as well.

1 - Gunnevera
2 - Huracan Americo
3 - Made You Look
4 - Three Rules
5 - Practical Joke

On the bright side, though, I'm quite happy with what this stride rate stuff showed me in yesterday's race. Huracan America gets an incomplete just because of what happened. But going in Gunnevera showed the best late race stride rate a pretty significant margin out of the North American runners and looked the best at maintaining that rate from early in the race. Three Rules had both the best stride rate late in the race of the front runners going in (27.5) and also showed the best maintain rate of those we thought would be up close (26.5 early). If anybody could hang around after being up close early, Three Rules looked like the guy to do it and he was the only one who did in finishing 3rd. Practical Joke had a 26.5 early, 28 late stride rate, which told me that while his style was suited to the projected race shape, it didn't look like the type who'd be able to sustain his late run as good as Gunnevera. And he didn't finishing well back in 2nd. Made You Look was the miss of the bunch, but his late race stride rate of 28 came on the grass while coming from off the pace. He sat up close just behind the early leaders yesterday for whatever reason, so it's no surprise that he faded late. He also probably didn't like the dirt in addition to be too close. But overall I was quite happy with what this stride rate stuff has been showing in the first test of it for us. We may have something here that I'd doubt anybody could find anywhere else. I've never heard of anybody else measuring this stuff and given it a numerical value anyways.

 

[Sharkey]

A lot of people have been posting their early Derby top 10 lists in recent weeks, but I can only see about four potential Derby horses right now with the potential to do something; American Anthem, Mastery, Gunnevera, and Tapwrit. McCraken would have been included in that last as well if he didn't have this recent hiccup that's forcing him to miss a race. Classic Empire's situation is way too much of a mess (no show last out, foot issues, missed month of training, misses race, injures back 1st work back). The rest don't look like they've be worth the time, although I'd expect some horses to make themselves known in the next few weeks. Battalion Runner, who's going to be getting hyped up some before the Florida Derby, isn't one of those though. Like Irish War Cry, he's another short striding horse that's probably going to get exposed as not being a route horse once the time rolls around (27 strides per furlong early, 29 late after a pace on the soft side in most recent race).

 

[Sharkey]

Mastery, Gormley and Iliad are all slated to run in the San Felipe this Saturday, and while Mastery is probably going to go off as a pretty heavy favourite, I would expect the other two to take their share of the money as well. I'll try to put a little spin on this stride rate stuff by using the Brisnet pace figures for all three;


- Iliad needed 25.5 strides to cover a furlong early when winning the San Vincente at 7F last month and that was him running a Brisnet E1 pace figure of 95. He needed 27.5 strides to cover the final furlong in that race at that 7F after running that pace early.

- Gormley needed 25.5 and 26 strides to cover the early furlongs in his last race at 8F, and that was him running a very strong Brisnet E1 pace figure of 108 while also dueling on the lead with American Anthem. He needed 27.5 strides to cover that final furlong while still having to battle to the line the whole way. In his G1 win as a two year-old in the 8.5F Front Runner, Gormley needed 26 strides to cover an early furlong running a Brisnet E1 pace figure of 92, and finished that race needing 28 strides to cover the final furlong.

- When he won the G3 Bob Hope at 7F as a two year-old, Mastery needed 25 strides to cover an early furlong while running a E1 figure of 86. In the final furlong of that race he only needed 25.5 strides to cover that distance. In his next race, still as a two year-old, he won a G1 at 8.5F. I can't figure out his stride rate early in the race due to the camera angles given, but he ran a E1 of 112 that race so my guess it's a 25 again. After running that hard early he still only needed 26.5 strides to cover the final furlong of that 8.5F race.


All three of these guys like to run near the lead in the early going with both Mastery and Gormley being on or just outside types, and Iliad being a just outside or just behind type. The post position draw may indicate who's tracking outside who between Gormley and Mastery, although Mastery's workout from the other day might say he's going to stalk and let Gormley (or maybe Iliad) have the lead early. But Iliad looks like he's throwing in the towel on the far turn based on this stuff, and while his gameness may allow him to put up some kind of battle, Gormley looks like he won't be able to step with Mastery in the late going either. This race could easily open up for a high priced longshot to come running from off the pace and grab 2nd behind Mastery. I have no idea who that could be yet since I don't know who else is pointing to the race. But It's something I'm going to look for once the field is drawn in a few days.

 

[Sharkey]

Uh, yeah. Sure.

 

[Sharkey]

I'll be glad to bet against that 102 BSF of J Boys Echo in the Wood if somebody even half decent shows up for that race.

 

[Sharkey]

Cowboy summing things up quite nicely here;

 

[Sharkey]

With apologies in advance to @kenfloshogun;

 

[kenfloshogun]

^haha hopefully I get a refund if he doesn't race in the Derby. Not sure how 365 grades these futures.

 

[Sharkey]

PP's for the San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby, as well as the Big Cap if anybody is looking to play that race;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

Term of Art looks like he might be the off the pace type I look to in the San Felipe to finish 2nd or even 3rd if I play a trifecta. He's got good stride length to him, does a fairly decent job of keeping his stride length to the end of the race when factoring in his early pace, although he has poor stride frequency. He's basically a plodder type, so he's going to need most of the horses sitting up close early in the race to be gasping for air as they hit the stretch to make any sort of mark on this race. But he'll be a big price, though, so I could see myself using him behind Mastery in the exacta and Mastery/Gormley in a tri.

I haven't watched the race videos of all the Tampa Bay runners yet, but have most of them. I'm hoping Beasely takes a lot of money and goes off as the 2nd choice behind Tapwrit. I'll be way against Beasely in this race, I know that. Looks like Tapwrit's race to lose, but maybe I can get either Wild Shot or State of Honor home 2nd for a decent exacta payout. Or vice versa with Tapwrit finishing 2nd. I'm not sure yet. Still plenty of time.

 

[Sharkey]

I'm pretty sure Beasely is going to go off as 2nd choice in the TB Derby now after reading some comments on twitter and elsewhere. He's getting a whole lot of support out there. He's basically getting some hype now because he finished just over a length behind another overhyped horse in Battalion Runner his last race.

Beasely had a 7F race in January where he finished 2nd. He covered the 2nd quarter in that race in 26 strides and had a stride frequency of 2.31 strides per second. He had to shorten up his stride significantly over the final furlong of that 7F race and needed 30 strides to cover it. His stride frequency at that point was 2.26 strides per second. He ran a Brisnet E1 pace figure of 83 and an E2 of 94, so he wasn't exactly blazing in the early going given the distance of the race.

Same thing happened to him in his next race at 8.5F. Beasely ran the 2nd quarter needing 27 strides to cover that distance. He was taking 2.29 strides per second at that point. His E1 and E2 pace figures were 84 and 87 respectively meaning that the pace he was showing wasn't all that strong. Yet he still again needed 30 strides to cover the final furlong and his stride frequency was 2.25 at that point.

Not only has Beasely's stride length decreased significantly at the end of his last two races, but his stride frequency is also decreasing at the end of his races as well. I've got this guy throwing in the towel as they hit the top of the stretch myself.

 

[Sharkey]

The morning line odds are finally listed for the Tampa race and they have Tapwrit listed at 3/1. Shit, I hope I can get that on him. I was thinking he would be 2/1 and then I'd have a decision to make. There's no decision at all if he's sitting 3/1, though. As long as he can keep his "spirit" in check before entering the gate he looks to be by far the most likely winner of the race. State of Honor is the 2nd choice on the ML at 4/1 with Beasely at 9/2. The ML has 6 horses in the field between 3/1 and 6/1 so they're predicting that the bettors will see this as a wide open race. Hope so.

 

[Sharkey]

There seems like there is a lot of support for Gormley out there too, so maybe Mastery goes off at a decent price after all. If 7/5 can be considered decent that is. I think he has a fair amount better than 50/50 shot against this whole field, though, so even money might even represent a little bit of value for me.

 

[Sharkey]

I finished watching the video on all the Tampa Bat runners and after doing so I'd rank them like so when factoring in stride length, length maintenance, stride frequency, as well as the other conventional handicapping stuff;

1st - Tapwrit
(daylight)
2nd - Wild Shot
3rd - No Dozing
4th - State of Honor

Very little difference between the bottom 3. Basically equals to me.

Beasely and Sonic Mule are the other two horses between 3/1 and 6/1 on the morning line, and both look to be in tough here. Sonic Mule is a early pace setter type that has shown a lot of leg weariness in his races at shorter distances (plus poor stride length in those shorter races), so my guess is that he's only entered in here to spread the field out some and ensure Tapwrit has the room to use those big long strides of his. Both Tapwrit and Sonic Mule trained by Pletcher.

 

[Sharkey]

All done figuring this out for tomorrow.


San Felipe;

Mastery over Term of Art exacta for 1u
Mastery over Gormley over Term of Art trifecta for 1u
Term of Art to show for 1u


Tampa Bay Derby;

Tapwrit over Wild Shot/State of Honor in exactas for 1u each
Tapwrit over No Dozing exacta for 0.5u


I'll play both Mastery and Tapwrit to win at the right odds. Basically if Mastery goes off at even odds or better, and Tapwrit goes off at 2/1 or better. They're clearly the horses to beat in each race to me. If one or both aren't offered up at those odds then I'll just double up on the above plays.