Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

final day of Cheltenham which has been a brutal week for bettors, today was saved by a Ruby Walsh/Mullins four timer
Tomorrow im all in on Death Duty, Defi De Seuil and Native River
 
Keep an eye on this guy as the last round of preps begin over the next few weeks. My guess is that he'll probably stay in California for the Santa Anita Derby, but perhaps the Arkansas Derby is in play as well. This guy shows pretty good stride length, excellent length maintenance, and enough stride frequency and athletic ability to keep himself involved in his races and not get hurt rounding the turns. Not sure a Derby effort is in his future since that's asking a lot from a horse who just broke his maiden last month. But maybe a major player for the Preakness, Belmont or the Travers later in the summer.

 
Barring a scratch between now and this time tomorrow I'm 99.9% sure this is how I'll end up playing the Rebel tomorrow;

- American Anthem to win for 5u
- American Anthem over Petrov in an exacta for 2u
- American Anthem over Silver Dust, Look at Lee in exactas for 1u each
- American Anthem over Petrov over Silver Dust, Lookin at Lee in a couple of trifectas for 0.5u each

I thought about making a few other bets (small on Petrov to win, Silver Dust to show, etc.), but ultimately I'm going to keep it as straight forward as possible given my opinions. Nothing cute at all.
 
This will be the 3rd prep race in a row where I'm on the short priced favourite, which is not like me at all. I'm almost always looking for ways to beat those types. All three looked like the clear horse to beat going in and both Mastery & Tapwrit ran like it last week. I'm obviously expecting similar from American Anthem this week if I'm willing to take a short price on him.
 
Both American Anthem and Royal Mo have a similar maximum stride length yet a good way to tell the difference between a long stride due to athletic ability, flexibility, and co-ordination (American Anthem), and a long stride that is mainly a product of a horse's bone structure and sheer size (Royal Mo) is to look at how well they are able to navigate corners. Watch American Anthem in the Sham as they round the first turn. He's arguably the fastest horse through that portion of the race. After that watch the way Royal Mo navigates the 1st turn in the Bob Lewis. He's arguably the slowest horse in the race during that cornering portion. That outside post of Royal Mo's could be a double whammy because of that if they're looking to gain early positioning on him. He may be forced wide due to outside post, and also doesn't have the agility to navigate the corners as well as others thus he's losing more ground.



 
i.e. Royally Slo Mo is about to be exposed.
 
Sharkey said:
Barring a scratch between now and this time tomorrow I'm 99.9% sure this is how I'll end up playing the Rebel tomorrow;

- American Anthem to win for 5u
- American Anthem over Petrov in an exacta for 2u
- American Anthem over Silver Dust, Look at Lee in exactas for 1u each
- American Anthem over Petrov over Silver Dust, Lookin at Lee in a couple of trifectas for 0.5u each

I thought about making a few other bets (small on Petrov to win, Silver Dust to show, etc.), but ultimately I'm going to keep it as straight forward as possible given my opinions. Nothing cute at all.
Click to expand...

I'm about to head out the door to get these bets in. No changes. Best of luck to anybody playing the Rebel or any of the other races today.
 
Sharkey said:
I'm about to head out the door to get these bets in. No changes. Best of luck to anybody playing the Rebel or any of the other races today.
Click to expand...

Tailed all the plays Sharkey thank you. Looks like I missed out the last few weeks on a bunch of winners but I was moving. Good luck to everyone!
 
Mor Spirit, who American Anthem handled easily enough in that workout together last week, just came back to win the Essex for older horses against a pretty decent field a few minutes ago on the Rebel undercard. Hopefully that's a good sign for the Rebel itself.
 
Can I change my Derby futures to Tapwrit instead of American Anthem? My god that was an awful effort.
 
Arrogate going for the Dubai World Cup this weekend, looks a sure thing for it really at odds of 2/5. Another 5 million to add to his current 8.5 million earnings, what a horse he is.

The rest of the card looks very competitive however, with loads of top class horses from all over the world going over. Other favoured runners from the US include Mind Your Biscuits in the Dirt Sprint and Sharp Azteca in the Dirt Mile. Should be good fun.
 
I'm still having trouble digesting what Arrogate did about an hour ago;

 
kenfloshogun said:
Couple big Derby Prep races this weekend

Do we know who's running?
Click to expand...

We do.

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

I haven't decided how I want to play the Florida Derby yet, but I may take a chance on a longshot type in the Louisiana Derby just because I'm not terribly high on any of the favourites and how the shape of the race figures to play out. The #4 horse, Senior Investment (12/1 on the morning line), has peaked my interest in this spot.
 
Sharkey said:
We do.

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

I haven't decided how I want to play the Florida Derby yet, but I may take a chance on a longshot type in the Louisiana Derby just because I'm not terribly high on any of the favourites and how the shape of the race figures to play out. The #4 horse, Senior Investment (12/1 on the morning line), has peaked my interest in this spot.
Click to expand...

Nice, going to bookmark this page.

Excited to see Gunnevera run again.
 
5dimes has some odds on the Derby winner. All horses have action regardless if horse runs:

McCraken +550
Gunnevera +875
Thunder Snow +1200
Classic Empire +1250
One Liner +1250
Tapwrit +1000
Malagacy +1300
Unique Bella +1300
J Boys Echo +1600
Epicharis wins +1750
Irish War Cry +1750
Practical Joke +1800
El Areeb +2200
Battalion +2500
Mo Town +2550
Girvin +3000
Gormley +3000
Iliad +3000
Uncontested +3000
Always Dreaming +3300
Good Samaritan +3300
Guest Suite +3300
Hence +3300
American Anthem +3500
Beach Bum +3500
Cloud Computing +3500
Petrov +3500
Lookin At Lee +3750
Untrapped +3750
Royal Mo +4000
No Dozing +4250
Faja +5000
State of Honor +5250
Action Everyday +5500
Wild Shot +5500
Three Rules +6000
Hemsworth +6750
Takaful +10000
 
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