Kentucky Derby...and Beyond? | Page 47

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 28, 2016.

  1. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    In addition to Gormley, there also seems to be a lot of support for Iliad out there as well as people are looking to beat Mastery tomorrow. Iliad is the same horse who had to shorten his stride by 2 feet at the end of his win at 6F, and then by 2.5 feet at the end of his 7F win in the San Vincente. Both times his stride frequency at the end of those fell off too, significantly so at the end of the San Vincente (2.3 to 2.15). He was moving at a pretty good clip early in those races, so some fall off could be expected. But that's way too much for me to give him much of a chance at all in a 8.5F race that should also be ran pretty fast in the early going. If he gets an easy lead over average/soft fractions then maybe he sticks around til the end. But with horses like Mastery and Gormley in this race I don't think he'll even finish top 3. Like Beasely in the Tampa Bay Derby, I have him throwing in the towel at the top of the stretch.
     
    #921
  2. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Mastery to win the San Felipe (2.5u) and Tapwrit to win in Tampa (2u). I have to go and get my bets in a little earlier than I wanted to, but I think I'll get those odds on them. Hopefully anyways. Best of luck to anybody else playing the ponies today.
     
    #922
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  3. t6p Blue Belt

    t6p
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    Shamelessly tailing everything as usual. Thanks so much for sharing and best of luck today. Let's do this!
     
    #923
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  4. gcoogan1 White Belt

    gcoogan1
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    tailed as well
    cheltenham is next week over here, massive meeting il post bets next weeek if anyone wants a few tips
     
    #924
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  5. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Mastery wins for fun. Term of Art plods along to finish 3rd. That's the good news. Bad news is that it looks like Mastery injured himself after the line.
     
    #925
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  6. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Mastery was at least able to walk to the ambulance on his own power before being taken away. Still sucks.
     
    #926
  7. t6p Blue Belt

    t6p
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    Hate to hear that Shark, he ran a great race too.
     
    #927
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  8. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Yeah, he ran tremendous. Basically ran both Gormley and Iliad into the ground over some pretty fast fractions.
     
    #928
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  9. Hodge23 White Belt

    Hodge23
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    Tailed the plays also

    1U Mastery @ Evens
    1U Tapwrit @ 9/4

    Good stuff @Sharkey, great run by Mastery and apparently he walked off the ambulance fine, so fingers crossed nothings amiss.

    Also looked at Dortmund later, who is racing in a turf race for the first time. Currently sitting at 5/1 so had to have 1U on that, if he can transfer his form to the turf then surely he has a huge chance?

    And yeah cheltenham festival this week so would definitely be interested in your picks @gcoogan1
     
    #929
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  10. gcoogan1 White Belt

    gcoogan1
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    great work Sharkey got it in a 5/1 double cheers
     
    #930
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  11. Hodge23 White Belt

    Hodge23
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    Bolted up, great picks man. Neither were in doubt!
     
    #931
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  12. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    1st - Tapwrit
    (daylight)
    2nd - State of Honor
    3rd - Wild Shot

    Easy money.
     
    #932
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  13. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Not sure what the exacta is going to pay, but State of Honor was around 10/1 going to post so it should be okay.
     
    #933
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  14. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    15/1 on that exacta. Very nice.
     
    #934
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  15. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    No Dozing ended up 4th in the race too. If we would've keyed Tapwrit up top and then boxed the other three in the super we could have had it at 230/1.
     
    #935
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  16. t6p Blue Belt

    t6p
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    Seriously I'm in awe of you @Sharkey. So impressive how you're able to key in on every detail of these races and cap them so beautifully. You sir, are the man. Thanks again for keeping this thread going and sharing with all of us!
     
    #936
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  17. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    You're way too kind, T. But thanks. I love doing shit like this, though, especially when we can find a way to cap these races in a way that nobody else is doing. If we can make a buck or two in the process then all the better.
     
    #937
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  18. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Bob Baffert confirmed a short while ago that Mastery is off the Derby trail after suffering a condylar fracture in his left front, and he'll be undergoing surgery on Monday.
     
    #938
  19. t6p Blue Belt

    t6p
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    That's disappointing, it's a lot of fun watching these horses work their way towards the Derby. But more importantly, it sounds like Mastery will be ok, thankfully.
     
    #939
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  20. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    The big monster that is Dortmund didn't look like he wanted any part of running on the green stuff. Looks like he hated it with every step.
     
    #940

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