Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

In addition to Gormley, there also seems to be a lot of support for Iliad out there as well as people are looking to beat Mastery tomorrow. Iliad is the same horse who had to shorten his stride by 2 feet at the end of his win at 6F, and then by 2.5 feet at the end of his 7F win in the San Vincente. Both times his stride frequency at the end of those fell off too, significantly so at the end of the San Vincente (2.3 to 2.15). He was moving at a pretty good clip early in those races, so some fall off could be expected. But that's way too much for me to give him much of a chance at all in a 8.5F race that should also be ran pretty fast in the early going. If he gets an easy lead over average/soft fractions then maybe he sticks around til the end. But with horses like Mastery and Gormley in this race I don't think he'll even finish top 3. Like Beasely in the Tampa Bay Derby, I have him throwing in the towel at the top of the stretch.

 

[Sharkey]

All done figuring this out for tomorrow.


San Felipe;

Mastery over Term of Art exacta for 1u
Mastery over Gormley over Term of Art trifecta for 1u
Term of Art to show for 1u


Tampa Bay Derby;

Tapwrit over Wild Shot/State of Honor in exactas for 1u each
Tapwrit over No Dozing exacta for 0.5u


I'll play both Mastery and Tapwrit to win at the right odds. Basically if Mastery goes off at even odds or better, and Tapwrit goes off at 2/1 or better. They're clearly the horses to beat in each race to me. If one or both aren't offered up at those odds then I'll just double up on the above plays.

Mastery to win the San Felipe (2.5u) and Tapwrit to win in Tampa (2u). I have to go and get my bets in a little earlier than I wanted to, but I think I'll get those odds on them. Hopefully anyways. Best of luck to anybody else playing the ponies today.

 

[t6p]

Mastery to win the San Felipe (2.5u) and Tapwrit to win in Tampa (2u). I have to go and get my bets in a little earlier than I wanted to, but I think I'll get those odds on them. Hopefully anyways. Best of luck to anybody else playing the ponies today.

Shamelessly tailing everything as usual. Thanks so much for sharing and best of luck today. Let's do this!

 

[gcoogan1]

tailed as well
cheltenham is next week over here, massive meeting il post bets next weeek if anyone wants a few tips

 

[Sharkey]

Mastery wins for fun. Term of Art plods along to finish 3rd. That's the good news. Bad news is that it looks like Mastery injured himself after the line.

 

[Sharkey]

Mastery was at least able to walk to the ambulance on his own power before being taken away. Still sucks.

 

[t6p]

Mastery was at least able to walk to the ambulance on his own power before being taken away. Still sucks.

Hate to hear that Shark, he ran a great race too.

 

[Sharkey]

Hate to hear that Shark, he ran a great race too.

Yeah, he ran tremendous. Basically ran both Gormley and Iliad into the ground over some pretty fast fractions.

 

[Hodge23]

Tailed the plays also

1U Mastery @ Evens
1U Tapwrit @ 9/4

Good stuff @Sharkey, great run by Mastery and apparently he walked off the ambulance fine, so fingers crossed nothings amiss.

Also looked at Dortmund later, who is racing in a turf race for the first time. Currently sitting at 5/1 so had to have 1U on that, if he can transfer his form to the turf then surely he has a huge chance?

And yeah cheltenham festival this week so would definitely be interested in your picks @gcoogan1

 

[gcoogan1]

great work Sharkey got it in a 5/1 double cheers

 

[Hodge23]

Bolted up, great picks man. Neither were in doubt!

 

[Sharkey]

1st - Tapwrit
(daylight)
2nd - State of Honor
3rd - Wild Shot

Easy money.

 

[Sharkey]

Not sure what the exacta is going to pay, but State of Honor was around 10/1 going to post so it should be okay.

 

[Sharkey]

15/1 on that exacta. Very nice.

 

[Sharkey]

I finished watching the video on all the Tampa Bat runners and after doing so I'd rank them like so when factoring in stride length, length maintenance, stride frequency, as well as the other conventional handicapping stuff;

1st - Tapwrit
(daylight)
2nd - Wild Shot
3rd - No Dozing
4th - State of Honor

Very little difference between the bottom 3. Basically equals to me.

No Dozing ended up 4th in the race too. If we would've keyed Tapwrit up top and then boxed the other three in the super we could have had it at 230/1.

 

[t6p]

Seriously I'm in awe of you @Sharkey. So impressive how you're able to key in on every detail of these races and cap them so beautifully. You sir, are the man. Thanks again for keeping this thread going and sharing with all of us!

 

[Sharkey]

Seriously I'm in awe of you @Sharkey. So impressive how you're able to key in on every detail of these races and cap them so beautifully. You sir, are the man. Thanks again for keeping this thread going and sharing with all of us!

You're way too kind, T. But thanks. I love doing shit like this, though, especially when we can find a way to cap these races in a way that nobody else is doing. If we can make a buck or two in the process then all the better.

 

[Sharkey]

Bob Baffert confirmed a short while ago that Mastery is off the Derby trail after suffering a condylar fracture in his left front, and he'll be undergoing surgery on Monday.

 

[t6p]

Bob Baffert confirmed a short while ago that Mastery is off the Derby trail after suffering a condylar fracture in his left front, and he'll be undergoing surgery on Monday.

That's disappointing, it's a lot of fun watching these horses work their way towards the Derby. But more importantly, it sounds like Mastery will be ok, thankfully.

 

[Sharkey]

The big monster that is Dortmund didn't look like he wanted any part of running on the green stuff. Looks like he hated it with every step.