Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Sharkey, Apr 28, 2016.

  1. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    With the Derby just over a week away and a lot of people already starting up on the handicapping process for the big race, I figured I'd start up a thread for us pony fans that post here. I'm sure there's a few and especially at this time of the year when the Derby can present opportunities for some life changing payouts. As one of those who has already started handicapping the race, I also have a shit load of data I've compiled over the last few days and would be more than happy to share it with anybody who is interested in it. It may be of little use. But maybe not. And who knows. Maybe after the Derby, Preakness and Belmont are run perhaps this thread can be used to share plays from those of us who play the ponies with some frequency.
     
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  2. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    So let's get this started with some possibly useless data for this year's Derby runners and see how some of these numbers stack up to the Derby winners profiles from recent history;

    Name, Combined Beyer & Brisnet speed rating over last three races with more recent one first, (Brisnet late pace figure in final prep), and also the AWD of both the sire and dam sire.

    Gun Runner - 95.5, 93.5, 87 - (98) - 7.0, 8.2
    Nyquist - 95.5, 102, 93 - (95) - 7.1, 6.4
    Exaggerator - 102.5, 98.5, 99.5 - (98) - 7.6, 6.9
    Outwork - 94.5, 97, 83 - (64) - 7.1, 7.7
    Brody's Cause - 92.5, 85.5, 89 - (94) - 8.2, 7.2
    Creator - 98, 92.5, 86 - (101) - 7.5, 8.5
    Lani - no speed rating data since horse ran overseas* - 7.5, 8.7
    Mor Spirit - 94, 99.5, 96 - (76) - 7.3, 6.9
    Mohaymen - 83.5, 98.5, 96 - (81) - 7.5, 6.9
    Danzing Candy - 85, 102, 95 - (53) - 6.4, 6.0
    Destin - 98.5, 99, 84 - (100) - 8.2, 6.4
    Suddenbreakingnews - 96.5, 89.5, 93.5 - (98) - 7.3, 7.4
    Oscar Nominated - 86.5, 83, 74.5 - (96) - 7.8, 9.1
    Shagaf - 89.5, 90.5, 84 - (63) - 7.6, 7.2
    Whitmore - 94.5, 94.5, 90 - (94) - 7.6, 7.1
    Tom's Ready - 89.5, 75, 87.5 - (94) - 7.0, 7.5
    My Man Sam - 90, 97.5, 94 - (94) - 6.6, 7.9
    Majesto - 91, 92.5, 77 - (93) - 7.6, 7.2
    Trojan Nation - 94.5, 80.5, 80 - (83) - 8.0, 7.7
    Mo Tom - 87.5, 91, 91 - (95) - 7.1, 7.0
    --------------------------------------------------------------
    Fellowship - 89.5, 90, 87 - (94) - 6.4, 6.6
    Adventist - 91.5, 87.5, 87.5 - (68) - 7.0, 7.6
    Laoban - 86, 88.5, 81 - (71) - 7.1, 6.5
    Dazzling Gem - 91.5, 88.5, 86 - (81) - 6.4, 6.9

    The bottom four are on the also eligle list as of now and are waiting for a defection before they can draw into the field. I included them anyways just in case

    *Lani recieved an estimated BSF of 83 and a TimeformUS rating of 107 when winning the UAE Derby. Both those numbers aren't even close to being competitive with the majority of these runners
     
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  3. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Now lets look at the ThoroGraph numbers and the (patterns) of these runners for the past three races;

    Gun Runner - 6 1/2, 5 1/2, 5 (P, P, P)
    Nyquist - 2 3/4, 2 3/4, 3 (P, P, P)
    Exaggerator - 2 1/2, 2 1/2, 0 3/4 (T, P, T)
    Outwork - 6 3/4, 2 3/4, 1 1/2 (T, T, T)
    Brody's Cause - 7 1/2, 8, 3 (X, X, P)
    Creator - 5 1/2, 4 1/2, 2 1/4 (T, P, T)
    Lani - 9 1/2, 5 (2 races no pattern)
    Mor Spirit - 3, 1 1/4, 4 1/2 (O, P, O)
    Mohaymen - 2 1/2, 1, 5 (P, T, X)
    Danzing Candy - 4, 1, 8 1/2 (P, T, X)
    Destin - 9, 7, -0 3/4 (O, P, T)
    Suddenbreakingnews - 3, 4 1/4, 1 1/4 (T, O, T)
    Oscar Nominated - 12, 9, 5 (X, O, T)
    Shagaf - 5, 4, 5 1/2 (O, P, O)
    Whitmore - 4 1/2, 2 1/2, 2 1/2 (T, T, P)
    Tom's Ready - 5 1/2, 10, 5 1/2 (T, X, P)
    My Man Sam - 6, 4, 3 1/2 (T, T, P)
    Majesto - 9, 7 1/2, 5 3/4 (O, O, P)
    Trojan Nation - 12 1/2, 9 1/4, 4 1/2 (O, P, T)
    Mo Tom - 5 1/2, 5 3/4, 6 3/4 (P, P, O)

    Dont have the TG numbers for the AE's yet.

    Also, the lower the number the better if you're not familiar with Thorograph

    T = ran a new top race improving thier previous top number by 1 or more
    P = the horse paired their previous top figure meaning they came within 1 point either way
    O = an off race where the horse had a number that was between 1 and 4 points lower than their previous top race
    X = the horse was 4 or more points worse than their previous top race


    There's some fluctuation from year to year in the percentages when it comes to the patterns, but historically for 3 year-olds at this time of year patterns like (T, P, T) and (P, P, T) are the better ones for a horse about to run a new top race. A (P, P, T) pattern is quite good as well. A (T, T, T) pattern may seem really good, but it's just okay. Not great, but not bad either. Patterns like (P, P, P) and (T, P, P) are some of the best for pairing up again a previous top race. Patterns with an X in it in a most recent race are obviously bad news for the horse. A (T, T, X) or (T, O, X) pattern right near the bottom. Generally shows a horse running too hard to get that new top figure and doesn't recover for some time afterwards. These patterns are for all 3 year-olds races at this time of year and not specific for the Derby itself

    For the Derby, though? I'm not going to offer up data on the three race pattern because that would be may too much work and way too many different combinations. But I did do some calculating for the last race and then the last two races for past Derby winners and top 3 finishers;

    - Since TG started keeping their own data in 1982, 19 of the 34 Derby winners ran a new T (top) in their final prep race. 9 of those Derby winners ran a P (pair) in their final prep. 5 of them won the Derby after running an O (off) race. And only one came after running an X race last time out

    - Those with a (P, T) pattern in their final two preps won 12 of the last 34 Derbys, which is the most. 7 Derby winners came into the race race with a (T, T) pattern in their final two preps. 5 of them had a (P, P) pattern. 4 had a (T, P) pattern. 3 of them had a (T, O) pattern. And (P,O), (P, X), and (O, O) all had 1 win each.

    I only found data for the top 3 finishers of the Derby from 1997 on. But when added up (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

    P, T - (6, 5, 1 record)
    P, P - (4, 4, 4)
    T, T - (3, 2, 5)
    T, P - (2, 4, 1)
    T, O - (3, 0, 1)
    O, P - (0, 1, 3)
    O, O - (1, 0, 1)
    O, T - (0, 1, 1)
    T, X - (0, 1, 1)
    X, T - (0, 0, 1)

    Those with a (P, O), (P, X), (O, X), (X, O), (X, P) or (X, X) pattern in their final two prep races didn't produce a single top 3 finisher in the Derby over those 19 years.
     
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  4. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    Shit. I forgot to add the recent historical data to that previous post with the BSF/BRIS and late pace numbers. I'll get that tomorrow.
     
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  5. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    Does this guy look like a Derby winner to any of you? If you do then you can have him at less than 10/1 and very likely the 2nd to 4th choice.

     
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  6. Agent Mulder Brown Belt

    Agent Mulder
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    Damn! Great stuff dude. Im gonna have to read up on all these terms when i get home so I understand the stats better. Anyways, really appreciate the work.
     
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  7. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    Ah, fuck it. It's still early enough out here on the left coast to add that other stuff;

    BSF/BRIS, late pace and AWD distance trends for the Derby winners over the last 16 years.

    For the Derby winners;

    - 15 of the past 16 winners had a combined BSF/BRIS speed figure above 95 in their last prep at 9F with Mine That Bird in '09 being the only exception.
    - 15 of the past 16 Derby winners had a maintain (less than 4 pt drop in any of their last 2 races) or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS over their final prep races with Street Sense being the one exception. Street Sense also had an excuse since he was trying to come off the pace into a prep race with a 51 2/5 half mile and 1:16 3/5 three quarter mile and still only lost by a nose
    - 12 of the last 16 Derby winners had their best BSF/BRIS combined rating regardless of margin in their final prep at 9F
    - 15 of the past 16 Derby winners had a Brisnet late pace figure of 95 or more in their final prep race at 9F with Mine That Bird being the lone exception again
    - 14 of the last 16 Derby winners saw a AWD of their dam sire side that was greater than on the sire side, which seems to back the often repeated thought that classic runners should be bred for speed on top, stamina on the bottom


    For the place spot;

    - 13 of the past 16 second place finishers in the Derby had a combined BSF/BRIS speed figure that was above 95 in their final prep at 9F
    - 13 of the past 16 second place finishers also had that maintain or improve pattern for their final two prep races
    - 12 of the past 16 second place finishers had their best BSF/BRIS combined figure in their final prep at 9F
    - 12 of the past 16 second place finishers had a Brisnet late pace number of 95 or greater in their final prep with 14 of 16 being 91 or greater


    For the show position;

    - 14 of the past 16 third place finishers in the Derby had a combined BSF/BRIS figure of 95 or more in their final prep at 9F
    - 12 of the past 16 third place finishers in the Derby had a maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final two prep races
    - 11 of the past 16 third place finishers had their best combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final prep at 9F
    - 10 of the last 16 third place had a late pace figure of 95 or above with 13 of them being 90 or above

    (AWD is only slightly in favour of the dam sire side for 2nd and 3rd place finishers)
     
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  8. Sharkey Silver Belt

    Sharkey
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    Cheers man. A lot of this stuff is quite confusing I'll give you that. If you have a question or two I'd be more than happy to answer it if I can.
     
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  9. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    The top 5 performances in a 9F prep race according to these various figure makers.


    Beyers; Exaggerator 103, Creator 96, Mor Spirit 94 (tie), Nyquist 94 (tie), and Suddenbreakingnews 94 (tie)

    Brisnet; Exaggerator 102, Creator 100 (tie), Gun Runner 100 (tie), Suddenbreakingnews 99, Nyquist 97 (tie), and Whitmore 97 (tie)

    TimeformUS; Exaggerator 119, Nyquist 116, Creator 115, Mor Spirit 114 (tie), Outwork 114 (tie), and Suddenbreakingnews 114 (tie)

    Roman's PF; Creator -57, Suddenbreakingnews -52, Whitmore -46, Exaggerator -44, and Nyquist -41

    ThoroGraph; Exaggerator 0 3/4, Suddenbreakingnews 1 1/4, Outwork 1 2/4, Creator 2 1/4, and Whitmore 2 1/2


    Those particularly figure makers seem to think that the Arkansas Derby (Creator, Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore) and the Santa Anita Derby (Exaggerator and Mor Spirit) were the two best 9F prep races this spring and could be key races when filling out some tickets. That's not a big surprise because recent history shows that those have been the two best paths to Derby success. I only went back 12 years, but...

    Where a Derby top 3 finisher ran their final prep and the track's record over that 12 year span;

    Oaklawn (Arkansas Derby) - 3 wins, 3 seconds, and 4 thirds
    Santa Anita (Santa Anita Derby) - 3 wins, 1 second, and 2 thirds
    Gulfstream (Florida Derby) - 3 wins, 1 second, and 0 thirds
    Keeneland (Blue Grass) - 1 win, 3 seconds, and 2 thirds
    Fair Grounds (Louisiana Derby) - 0 wins, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds
    Aqueduct (Wood) - 0 wins, 0 seconds, and 0 thirds

    Those are the six main ones, but other tracks have featured a top 3 finish or two in that span as well like Turfway Park (1 win and 1 second), Hawthorne, and Sunland. Turfway is the only one that has a runner this year, though, with Oscar Nominated coming from there.
     
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  10. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    In case anyone is wondering, I didn't include Destin with the above top 5 groups since his final prep race was ran at 8.5F. I also forgot to mention something with the Thorograph numbers in that other post and it relates to Destin. The biggest jump up by a horse in their final prep race on the TG numbers that went on to win the Derby was 4 1/2. The vast majority of horses who ran a new top figure in their final prep and then won the Derby only improved their tops by 2 or 3 points. Destin's new top figure in the Tampa Bay Derby was a 7 3/4 point jump. That's why the connections of Destin chose to skip his final prep at 9F. Pretty sure his owners also have ownership in the Ragozin sheets (similar to TG) such they are very familar with the "bounce" pattern after such a big effort and to try to avoid the regression that may (or probably) have come after running such a big effort they elected to give him extra time off. We'll see if it works.

    P.S. Destin is trained by Todd Pletcher;

    - Pletcher's record in the Derby when entering a horse off of 3 weeks rest - 1 win, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, and 2 fourths out of 19 Derby horses he did that with
    - Pletcher's record in the Derby when entering a horse off of 4 or more weeks rest - 0 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third, and 0 fourths out of 22 Derby horses he did that with

    The Pletcher trained Destin will have 8 weeks off
     
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    Last edited: Apr 28, 2016
  11. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

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    definitely fine w/this having its own thread, imagine there'll be a lotta betting talk with it
     
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  12. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    Cheers man. Regardless of the size of a person's bankroll, there aren't too many betting opportunities in sports that give the player a chance at a big score like in the Derby. I haven't seen updated averages yet, but going into last the average exacta payout for the past 25 years was $822 for a $2 bet. The average tri for a $2 bet paid over $12,000. And the average super for a $1 bet paid over $90,000. Those numbers are going to be skewed some on the high side due to what happened in the 2005 Derby when two huge longshots finished 1st and 2nd. But even eliminating that result the averages are only going to be decreased about 40% or so. Potentially great to huge payouts to be had if the result ends up matching one's betting opinion.
     
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  13. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    Final prep races for the majority of these runners;





     
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  14. Sharkey Silver Belt

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  15. Sharkey Silver Belt

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  16. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    It's quite important how good a horse looks coming off of their last race and how they are coming into the Derby from both a physical and mental standpoint. Workouts and the subsequent workout reports from the track are often a big factor in who may run well in the Derby.

    Mike Welsch of DRF is very good if looking for his opinion on how the horses look in the morning;

    http://www.drf.com/kentucky-derby-workouts


    Bruno De Julio is the best in the business, though. He charges money for his complete workout reports of the Derby runners, but he'll also freely offer up some opinions on twitter if you want to read what he says or maybe even ask him a question. He's at @Racingwithbruno on twitter.

    Or you can watch parts of the workouts yourself on the Kentucky Derby youtube page. You don't necessarily have to have a great eye for those things although some smaller details can be tough to spot;

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLl40UP8fX1C5CELhqkouYIGbftC230-oh
     
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    Last edited: Apr 28, 2016
  17. BluntTrauma21 SpottieOttieDopaliscious

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    Love it Shark, thanks for all the info as usual. That Arkansas Derby might have been my favorite race I've seen. Gotta love the closers. Seeing a lot of love for Nyquist from a lot of people but betting favorites is not as fun :).
     
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  18. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    Not only is betting favourites not that fun, but it hasn't been at all profitable for those that did this spring either. At least for the last 12 prep races. The favourites record in those 12 races? 0-2-0 with Mor Spirit's two 2nd place finishers being the only ones that hit the board. But I have a lot of respect for Nyquist, though. We'll see how playable he is once we get the rest of the puzzle next week (post draw, final works, etc).

    Ditto for me on the Arkansas Derby. At least in recent times since it was my most profitable race in quite some time. I think I've watched that race about 25 times since it happened and I'd say more than half of those times was just to relive the moment when the top two crossed the line. The other 10 times I watched it was to study it for next week, which I'm sure I'll do again.
     
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  19. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

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    Wow Sharkey this is awesome. I'm not big into the ponies but for the Triple Crown Races always like to get a few bets in.

    So I don't know if I've completely figured out all the data you posted but 5d actually has prop bets up for the Derby winner in the sportsbook (separate from the racebook). So the odds they list are locked in when you bet it, not tied to paramutual and subject to shifts. Based on what I'm seeing here I'm looking at taking:

    Gun Runner at +1200 (12 to 1)
    Whitmore at +3000 (30 to 1)

    Probably throw a few exacta trifecta bets in the racebook the day of the race but I think locking in now at these odds for small amounts is worth the risk they get pulled/hurt etc prior to the race. Thoughts Sharkey or anyone else? I really don't know a ton about horses so want to know if I'm interpreting this data okay.
     
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  20. Sharkey Silver Belt

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    Cheers man.

    You know, just using the data I posted here I think the two horses you landed on show that you interpreted that stuff quite well.

    My advice, though, if you want to lock in now is to take Whitmore at that price if you like him. His odds are going to be dropping quite a bit come Derby day simply because of who'll be riding him in the race (Victor Espinoza). I'd be surprised if he's north of 20/1 next week. I'd wait on Gun Runner, though. You should be able to get around 12/1 next week as well. Maybe even a little better. And if does drop it won't be more than a point or two I don't think.
     
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