Are we already in a recession?

JosephDredd said:
He's just trying to have an informed, rational discourse.


What's the proper way to ask for sources that show that you are accurate in your ability to make sweeping statements about the economy because of the construction you see on your drives to and from wal Mart?
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Don't insult people who are making statements for the sake of insulting them. Read the entire posts between us. I'm not saying I'm perfect myself. I am intolerable towards socialist/communist rhetoric. There was no need to insult someone for making a claim on their experiences.
 
MadSquabbles500 said:
But aren't we at historical lows in unemployment? I hear tidbits on the news about that, but not much. They seem to breeze through it. I wonder why not be talked about on Sherdog. Maybe I start a thread if I can find a good article illustrating it.
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Yeah, but it's shit jobs. Yes, people are working, but pretty much all the working people I know are just scraping by. As soon as this bubble pops, most of those shit ass service jobs are going to evaporate.
 
Bloodworth said:
Your thinking way too much. Simply comes down to tax dollars .

More people ever are using tax based services and being paid taxed paid jobs then there are people contributing.

More people using the school system then Paying school tax.

More people driving on roads and bridges then there are people paying to maintain them.

Lots of people have cash and are doing well, but once the gov runs out of tax dollars the shit trickles down quick

Same people responsible for the tax gap and also sending damaging amounts of cash out of the country then ever seen in history.
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In addition to the risk of inflation, if the fed raises rates, that will increase the cost of capital.

Anybody burrowing money based on adjustable rates, which is the middle class and the poor, will bear the brunt of trying to pay for a lifestyle they can no longer afford.

We are in for a reset. Possibly a civil war.
 
HockeyBjj said:
There can be very strong arguments that the economy may not be actually doing as well as stocks and investors show, but I don’t think we’re anywhere near a recession at the moment
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Stock-market performance is not a good indicator for the economy (and actually stocks haven't been doing well--the S&P 500 is up just 1.4% YTD, and it's down 4.9% from the late-January high). But real metrics that people use to evaluate the strength of the economy show it doing well.

One of the few metrics that has had any success predicting recessions is the 10-year treasury constant maturity minus the 2-year. When it hits zero or goes negative, that's a sign that a recession could be coming soon (though that could mean a couple of years). Here it is:

fredgraph.png


We're getting to the point where we maybe should be a little worried, but not where it's a real red flag.
 
White Whale said:
Peter Schiff is saying we are going into a big one.

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He also said gold was going to skyrocket to $5k an ounce and 2008 was going to be worse than the Great Depression. That guy is a perpetual doomsayer, if he could even be considered a serious economist.
 
Bloodworth said:
I go by construction.

More people are building and upgrading, adding dormers then ever before.

Tons of middle eastern and Asian coming over with lots of cash.

These are not your poor immigrants of the past.
Big bucks,

Lots of foundations being dug . Nice mansions being tore down for new.
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Housing construction is a poor metric.

Upper class housing poorer still.

Housing growth is a growth hangover from a prior period. It does not create jobs once the building stops.

It's the middle class which drives a country.

Middle class spending the most powerful factor.

Business investment in America is what you need to look for.
 
HIMBOB said:
What kind of construction? What do you build?
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Lately.. high schools, hospitals and college add ons... that’s a very good indication of market direction..

Goes something like this..

Schools mean more people are moving to an area...means more houses being built...means more hospitals to supply the influx...means more college to also supply the pool of kids coming.

I also do high rise (downtown l.a.) and am not sure if anyone here has seen a horizon shot but last I counted there were over twenty boom cranes going...

What that means..

Private investors are getting in on the action..a lot of market confidence in play here..they know there going to make big money..

During a recession(which I’ve lived and worked through thankfully) ..you couldn’t find a high rise with a boom crane for ten years..

Schools..no way...a school will not be built unless there is a demand on the new homeowners and they have the taxes to back it up.


I’m not saying a recession won’t come...I just don’t see it anytime soon.. way to many confident investors and money movers then even before recession..

Not to sound hyperbolic,but I’ve never seen a boom like this in twenty years...which most certainly will result in a downward spiral eventually.

Our union cannot even supply enough manpower to cover the jobs and projected jobs needed..

Great time if your a young guy who wants to get into trades to jump.
 
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HIMBOB said:
Housing construction is a poor metric.

Upper class housing poorer still.

Housing growth is a growth hangover from a prior period. It does not create jobs once the building stops.

It's the middle class which drives a country.

Middle class spending the most powerful factor.

Business investment in America is what you need to look for.
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I agree with this some what.. I’ve lived through the waves and I can tell you with 100 percent certainty...

When houses are being built,that’s a great sign..

When there not..full recession within three years.. the wave hits hardest after the funds dry up for present projects.

What I’m seeing that’s positive is private multi million dollar projects...those really hit home market confidence...
People aren’t going to build a 60 million dollar bldg if they think there going to lose.

Las Vegas was the exception,that shit was crazy
 
Well the way I see it is this:

If the economy tanks it’s Trumps fault, if the economy improves it’s all because of obama.

That’s all that really matters here.
 
if i predict that we are going into a recession every year for 50 years and 1 year it is correct, am i a genius?
 
funcrusher2007 said:
I agree with this some what.. I’ve lived through the waves and I can tell you with 100 percent certainty...

When houses are being built,that’s a great sign..

When there not..full recession within three years.. the wave hits hardest after the funds dry up for present projects.

What I’m seeing that’s positive is private multi million dollar projects...those really hit home market confidence...
People aren’t going to build a 60 million dollar bldg if they think there going to lose.

Las Vegas was the exception,that shit was crazy
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True, very little housing construction during a recession but it is still there on the downward spiral.

However the upper end splashing cash means very little for the wider economic conditions. No one has any concerns what so ever about how the 0.01% is doing.
 
DynamicLoosener said:
if i predict that we are going into a recession every year for 50 years and 1 year it is correct, am i a genius?
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My boss has a favourite saying, economists have predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions.
 
Bamboozled said:
Don't insult people who are making statements for the sake of insulting them. Read the entire posts between us. I'm not saying I'm perfect myself. I am intolerable towards socialist/communist rhetoric. There was no need to insult someone for making a claim on their experiences.
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There wouldn't have been any insights if Bloodworth wasn't a clown who regularly contributes anecdotes to discussions ( instead of information) or if you had provided sources instead of defending his unsupported opinions. More than attacking Bloodworth, he was attacking the long, useless posting history of Bloodworth

How do you want someone treated who has no verifiable information and insists his unsupported ideas are just as valid as facts? Serious question
 
JosephDredd said:
There wouldn't have been any insights if Bloodworth wasn't a clown who regularly contributes anecdotes to discussions ( instead of information) or if you had provided sources instead of defending his unsupported opinions. More than attacking Bloodworth, he was attacking the long, useless posting history of Bloodworth

How do you want someone treated who has no verifiable information and insists his unsupported ideas are just as valid as facts? Serious question
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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-spending

But he was right
 
funcrusher2007 said:
Lately.. high schools, hospitals and college add ons... that’s a very good indication of market direction..

Goes something like this..

Schools mean more people are moving to an area...means more houses being built...means more hospitals to supply the influx...means more college to also supply the pool of kids coming.

I also do high rise (downtown l.a.) and am not sure if anyone here has seen a horizon shot but last I counted there were over twenty boom cranes going...

What that means..

Private investors are getting in on the action..a lot of market confidence in play here..they know there going to make big money..

During a recession(which I’ve lived and worked through thankfully) ..you couldn’t find a high rise with a boom crane for ten years..

Schools..no way...a school will not be built unless there is a demand on the new homeowners and they have the taxes to back it up.


I’m not saying a recession won’t come...I just don’t see it anytime soon.. way to many confident investors and money movers then even before recession..

Not to sound hyperbolic,but I’ve never seen a boom like this in twenty years...which most certainly will result in a downward spiral eventually.

Our union cannot even supply enough manpower to cover the jobs and projected jobs needed..

Great time if your a young guy who wants to get into trades to jump.
Click to expand...

In China, they create "Ghost Cities".



Just because they create it, doesn't mean people will buy it.

It seems like the US is taking a page out of China's book.
 
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