Are we already in a recession?

[BrotherClaudio]

How many trillion did Obummer spend of our money?

He literally is praised for one thing, it's disgusting that people can be so easily blinded

 

[Jake the Muss]

21% unemployment!? LOL, what kind of right wing propaganda bullshit is that? I cant speak for every market/local area in the US but I'd believe the 3.9% figure. Boise is ~2.8% unemployment and there are help wanted signs everywhere. Restaurants, banks, retail stores, construction, transportation, etc. Basically, if you want to work, you can easily find a job.

Im a Union electrician and have worked throughout the Pacific NW the past couple years. Every trade and damn near every contractor needs help. Electricians, plumbers, iron workers, pipe fitters, carpenters, glaziers, heavy equipment operators, masons, etc. The previous project I was working on would take weeks to get our equipment delivered to the job site because the trucking industry was so understaffed. There's even companies offering up to $200 per diem to get tradesman to man the jobs. Its ridiculous how much money is to be made. Counting benefits, I made over $150k in 10 months last year.

My point is that if all of this isnt a sign of a robust economy, I dont know what the hell is.

Why is 21.5% so hard to believe? Sure people can get part time jobs, which is included in the government's calculations, but part time jobs do not pay the bills. Even people with multiple part time jobs can't make it if they have a family to support.

Just because you don't see soup lines doesn't mean people are not struggling. When the person in front of you is buying groceries, you don't know if they are using an EBT card or not.

They have managed to cover up the poverty through entitlement and social programs. The flip side is that they kill the incentive for people to work. It is a double edge sword, because if these people were fully employed, and spending their hard earned cheap money, runaway inflation would collapse the dollar and you would have a civil war on your hands.

According to Trump, 43 million Americans are on food stamps, where the US labor force size is 160 million. That is about 26%.

That rough calculation is a lot closer to 21.5% then 3.9%.

 

[method115]

Why is 21.5% so hard to believe? Sure people can get part time jobs, which is included in the government's calculations, but part time jobs do not pay the bills. Even people with multiple part time jobs can't make it if they have a family to support.

Just because you don't see soup lines doesn't mean people are not struggling. When the person in front of you is buying groceries, you don't know if they are using an EBT card or not.

They have managed to cover up the poverty through entitlement and social programs. The flip side is that they kill the incentive for people to work. It is a double edge sword, because if these people were fully employed, and spending their hard earned cheap money, runaway inflation would collapse the dollar and you would have a civil war on your hands.

According to Trump, 43 million Americans are on food stamps, where the US labor force size is 160 million. That is about 26%.

That rough calculation is a lot closer to 21.5% then 3.9%.

I disagree with the "killing incentive to work". Not sure how many people on this site have actually been poor but it's not fun and the last thing it makes me want to do is keep living that way. When I had my first daughter we were so poor and everything was paid for literally didn't spend a dime. Just had my son I spent well over $5000 for everything. Not for one second was a I thinking "man wish I was poor again". I've been able to travel the world now, and if I want something I just go buy it (within reason of course). When I was poor just buying a video game was something that I had to carefully consider my bills over. Fuck going back to that BS.

 

[BoxingFan653]

How many trillion did Obummer spend of our money?

He literally is praised for one thing, it's disgusting that people can be so easily blinded

He didndonuffin!

 

[Madmick]

Everything about the economy where I live conforms to what most would consider to be the opposite of a recession in pretty much every possible facet.

So...yeah, I'm not seeing it.

 

[Jake the Muss]

Everything about the economy where I live conforms to what most would consider to be the opposite of a recession in pretty much every possible facet.

So...yeah, I'm not seeing it.

Well duh. You are in NorCal. The laws of economics doesn't apply there.

 

[Jake the Muss]

I disagree with the "killing incentive to work". Not sure how many people on this site have actually been poor but it's not fun and the last thing it makes me want to do is keep living that way. When I had my first daughter we were so poor and everything was paid for literally didn't spend a dime. Just had my son I spent well over $5000 for everything. Not for one second was a I thinking "man wish I was poor again". I've been able to travel the world now, and if I want something I just go buy it (within reason of course). When I was poor just buying a video game was something that I had to carefully consider my bills over. Fuck going back to that BS.

43 million Americans bro. If that notion wasn't true, that number would be a lot lower and not as consistent.

 

[HIMBOB]

You mean as opposed to other ST/LT spreads? I don't really know. Volume, maybe?

A flat or inverted yield curve is(st yield over Lt) its a signal that treasuries are expecting rates to drop in the short term. It's people voting with money so is considered a solid metric.

If that happens and a 10 year bond is paying say 2%pa and the market rate is 1.5%, the bond is worth more than it's face value.

 

[12ga.]

I don't think we ever recovered from that last one which is why Donald Trump was elected in the first place with his almost like Obama's Slogan "hope and change" - "make America great again" to appeal to masses of poor, under employed, and gig economy folks.

The insurgency by Bernie Sanders was the same symptoms. The Liberal democrats destroying the DLC corporate party elites in primaries currently is the same thing. Man on the street is doing terrible.

All the FED (and other G7s) did is inflate stock market and pump 14 trillion into the biggest banks and corps with almost none "trickling down" to main street. Stock market means little to the 82% who own no stock unless they are investing in America which they are not.

Why would they? You can't make money off Americans. Labor/regs costs more than globally and they are tapped out credit wise. Rich (top 10% or so) have all the marbles and bottom 90 has no wherewithall to make them money so they trade among themselves with interest free FED money and buy thier companies back..

This bubble will be worse than housing bubble by an order of magnitude and I think blow up on Trumps watch and we'll have martial law in America because they can't reflate anymore without destroying dollar.

Republicans shouldnt be so happy he won. Their name will be mud for decades.


Edit just ask yourself what kind of "good economy" is running a 1 trillion dollar deficit? I though good economies pay back debt under Keynesian like Clinton did.

 

[method115]

43 million Americans bro. If that notion wasn't true, that number would be a lot lower and not as consistent.

So what your point that the reason it's 43 million Americans is because none of them want to work? Can I just go ahead and assume you have absolutely no source for that?

Everything about the economy where I live conforms to what most would consider to be the opposite of a recession in pretty much every possible facet.

So...yeah, I'm not seeing it.

Same here other than O&G. With gas prices going back up only a matter of time until it picks back up again.

 

[Jake the Muss]

So what your point that the reason it's 43 million Americans is because none of them want to work? Can I just go ahead and assume you have absolutely no source for that?

Well based on your experience. If a person has the right mindset and abilities, it is possible to not be dependent on the government.

You are speaking for yourself, not for anyone else. As well meaning as you want the programs to be, since it worked for you, it is important to make that distinction.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Why is 21.5% so hard to believe? Sure people can get part time jobs, which is included in the government's calculations, but part time jobs do not pay the bills. Even people with multiple part time jobs can't make it if they have a family to support.

Just because you don't see soup lines doesn't mean people are not struggling. When the person in front of you is buying groceries, you don't know if they are using an EBT card or not.

They have managed to cover up the poverty through entitlement and social programs. The flip side is that they kill the incentive for people to work. It is a double edge sword, because if these people were fully employed, and spending their hard earned cheap money, runaway inflation would collapse the dollar and you would have a civil war on your hands.

According to Trump, 43 million Americans are on food stamps, where the US labor force size is 160 million. That is about 26%.

That rough calculation is a lot closer to 21.5% then 3.9%.

The U3 calculation is correct for what it measures. U6 includes unemployment people plus people who are working part time but would like to work full time, plus discouraged workers (who would like to work but aren't actively looking for work). It's currently at 8%, down from a post-recession high of 17.1%.