Are we already in a recession?

[YaWinSumYaLoseSum]

The quote was, "People seem to spending more than ever" and I just asked for facts to back that up. Maybe a little evidence. People like him and probably you will say anything to support your position and I need evidence. If there is something wrong with me for wanting evidence then so be it.

He’s not staying a fact. Just an observation from what he notices in his daily day to day. Now the fact you have an IQ of 50 is proof in your posts dumbass

 

[High Altitude]

You guys are nuts if you think we are going into recession today. We are going to kick this shit into boom 2.0.

Companies attitudes are now changing to a supply mentality. Meaning look for increase spending in equipment, processes to increase efficiencies, more into R&D, workforce development etc....

Don’t be a doom and gloomer or someone who sits on the sidelines and watches it all go by them as they hope everyday that it is going to all come crashing down. You have to get out there and take advantage of this shit.

Opportunity hasn’t been this good in a long time. Go out there and get yours.

Seriously guys.

 

[Oblivian]

isnt that just like the last recession?

Not even close. For those in the industry, the boom was blatantly obvious. Investors and landlords were unloading their properties due to the inflated prices due to any borrower being approved. People tend to gaze past how may people were refinancing as well. Many of the people that lost their homes just pulled cash out of it with these inflated prices and appraisals. We literally had properties that tripled in value from over 5 years.

We do have a shortage of houses on the market now. This has pushed up prices and values, but it's not even in the same ballpark as before. Furthermore, we aren't getting many refinances. Landlords also aren't in a hurry to unload. Sure, prices are a bit high now, but they can also push up the rent as many people aren't finding a house to buy due to low inventory. This has kicked up the rental market values. We've got quite a bit of non-residential activity as well. We're seeing a lot of farmers get out and sell to a large entity that manages farms throughout the state. That's where the big money is. We just did a grain storage facility that is valued near $40 million. That was an invoice near $45,000.00 for 10 hours of work at most.

I do think there is still an issue of people buying houses that shouldn't be approved though. I don't think that will ever change. IMO, the cash out refi game is much more dangerous.

 

[Jake the Muss]

You guys are nuts if you think we are going into recession today. We are going to kick this shit into boom 2.0.

Companies attitudes are now changing to a supply mentality. Meaning look for increase spending in equipment, processes to increase efficiencies, more into R&D, workforce development etc....

Don’t be a doom and gloomer or someone who sits on the sidelines and watches it all go by them as they hope everyday that it is going to all come crashing down. You have to get out there and take advantage of this shit.

Opportunity hasn’t been this good in a long time. Go out there and get yours.

Seriously guys.

Supplying to who though? What if there isn't sufficient demand on the other side? Aka Ghost Cities, excess inventories, etc.

Instead of allocating capital towards more meaningful uses, everyone is out to get theirs, not realizing that their efforts will ultimately tank the economy.

Greed, gluttony, and fear of missing out at it's finest. It's the same mentality that got us in trouble in 2007/8, and 2001.

Did we bounce back? Yeah, but at the expense of our purchasing power, our values, and our liberties.

 

[High Altitude]

Supplying to who though? What if there isn't sufficient demand on the other side? Aka Ghost Cities, excess inventories, etc.

Instead of allocating capital towards more meaningful uses, everyone is out to get there's, not realizing that their efforts will ultimately tank the economy.

Greed, gluttony, and fear of missing out at it's finest. It's the same mentality that got us in trouble in 2007/8, and 2001.

Did we bounce back? Yeah, but at the expense of our purchasing power, our values, and our liberties.

Demand is through the roof. Manufacturing backlogs are the largest in over 15 years.

The biggest issue is businesses can’t supply what their customers want because they don’t have it to give.

 

[Jake the Muss]

Demand is through the roof. Manufacturing backlogs are the largest in over 15 years.

The biggest issue is businesses can’t supply what their customers want because they don’t have it to give.

I was commenting on the sustainability and actuality of the demand.

If everyone is chasing opportunities and boosting up prices because of FOMO, then that is the exact same thing that happened in 2007/2008.

Were you warning everybody of a market correction before that happened or were you saying the same thing you are saying now?

 

[Street Fighter 2]

I'm sure you have all the data and metrics to back this up. Or are you just gong by what you observe at your local Wal-Mart?

Its credit card debt. They charge big items to the card and pay a low monthly fee for years, big intrerest much debt for all.

 

[High Altitude]

I was commenting on the sustainability and actuality of the demand.

If everyone is chasing opportunities and boosting up prices because of FOMO, then that is the exact same thing that happened in 2007/2008.

Were you warning everybody of a market correction before that happened or were you saying the same thing you are saying now?

It is two completely different situations.

Of course supply vs demand changes, it’s fluid, and yes markets will slow down as demand is fulfilled through increase supply. But unless we have an event that causes catastrophic layoffs, we won’t have another great recession type event, it will just be a normal type recession.

ie housing will slow, even go a little negative eventually, but won’t come crashing down. The market will just reach equilibrium.

Now if something happens that causes massive layoffs, well that is different, but nothing like that is on the horizon. It was on the horizon during the bubble pop because of all the liar loans, free money with no income or credit verification etc.....

What happened during the real estate bubble pop is not what we are seeing today.

The problem is we are moving more towards a two tier society and people not on the richer, upper middle class and up side, are having a very hard time believing what is happening.

Add in the memory of the Great Recession and a lot of people basically have like ptsd and now think Great Recession type events are the new norm and they aren’t. They got hurt during the Great Recession and are completely convinced everything is bad and will come crashing down around them at any time, even when everything says that isn’t true.

Backlogs are huge, unemployment is low, profits through the roof, companies screaming for more labor etc..... yet people all around still think since their life sucks, society must suck too and dooms day is right around the corner.

We still have a ways to go until we reach overall market saturation and go into a recession.

 

[Jake the Muss]

It is two completely different situations.

Of course supply vs demand changes, it’s fluid, and yes markets will slow down as demand is fulfilled through increase supply. But unless we have an event that causes catastrophic layoffs, we won’t have another great recession type event, it will just be a normal type recession.

ie housing will slow, even go a little negative eventually, but won’t come crashing down. The market will just reach equilibrium.

Now if something happens that causes massive layoffs, well that is different, but nothing like that is on the horizon. It was on the horizon during the bubble pop because of all the liar loans, free money with no income or credit verification etc.....

What happened during the real estate bubble pop is not what we are seeing today.

The problem is we are moving more towards a two tier society and people not on the richer, upper middle class and up side, are having a very hard time believing what is happening.

Add in the memory of the Great Recession and a lot of people basically have like ptsd and now think Great Recession type events are the new norm and they aren’t. They got hurt during the Great Recession and are completely convinced everything is bad and will come crashing down around them at any time, even when everything says that isn’t true.

Backlogs are huge, unemployment is low, profits through the roof, companies screaming for more labor etc..... yet people all around still think since their life sucks, society must suck too and dooms day is right around the corner.

We still have a ways to go until we reach overall market saturation and go into a recession.

The unemployment numbers are bogus. The Bureau Labor of Statistics (BLS) have changed the way unemployment is calculated so that discouraged workers (people who have been out of the workforce for more than 12 months) or people who have temporary work are not included.

According to shadowstats.com (which is based on the previous way the government calculated unemployment) the real unemployment number for April 2018 is 21.5%. That number seems a lot more realistic, compared to BLS' 3.9% calculations.

If companies started hiring all of those unemployed people, and those people started spending all that hard earned cheap money, it would increase the money velocity (spending, exchanges, transactions), and inflation is going to pop.

If decision makers are basing their needs on the way things are currently calculated, then it is only a matter of time before theory meets reality.

I can't speak on the backlogs, but I can speak on historical events and I can speak on the phenomena of ghost cities. But that doesn't bother people I guess. As long as they are paid in full, none of what I am saying really matters.

Also, there are loads of things they could set off the next downturn. The derivative markets, runaway inflation, interest rate hikes, a spike in oil prices, a terrorist attack, war, etc. It may not impact the real estate market the same way it did last time, but all that artificial demand would quickly dry up.

That is not even being a doom and gloomer, that is just someone who is reporting on stuff that is already in motion.

 

[ObamaPhoneLady]

Man you're a worthless poster. Always trying to stir shit up.

Fringe markets are successful right now. People have more options than ever to spend money on things like entertainment. The housing market kind of sucks, student loan debt is ridiculous. I don't know if people are spending more money, technically they would be due to inflation. But to anecdotally assume people are spending more money than ever isn't that hard to wrap your head around.

You can tell he is shit just by looking at who liked that post. All the most worthless retards on here.

 

[ObamaPhoneLady]

Well at least these clowns have given up on the Stormy Daniels shit. What a relief it would be if Trump led the country into a crushing recession, eh? You traitorous scumbags.

 

[HIMBOB]

So I guess this was just bullshit???

If true surely more of a story than just that shit article.

 

[method115]

Of course we are, it's always right around the corner, it's always going to be a big one.

 

[Johnny Mac]

So I guess this was just bullshit???

If true surely more of a story than just that shit article.

You sound poor.

 

[HIMBOB]

You sound poor.

I'll take that as no further evidence coming.

 

[HIMBOB]

2 biggest risks I see are a trade war and interest rates.

Trade war could start a recession but interest rates already being low and debt load high it will be hard to escape even if the initial cause is not as powerful.

 

[funcrusher2007]

In China, they create "Ghost Cities".



Just because they create it, doesn't mean people will buy it.

It seems like the US is taking a page out of China's book.

Lol..that’s a wierd equation..

Care to give me an example of a ghost city built recently in America?

 

[Jake the Muss]

Lol..that’s a wierd equation..

Care to give me an example of a ghost city built recently in America?

@High Altitude @funcrusher2007 @Oblivian @Bloodworth @ndwolfwood

 

[High Altitude]

@High Altitude @funcrusher2007 @Oblivian @Bloodworth @ndwolfwood

Just a hit piece. When the bubble popped the entire industry crashed. All unfinished developments where abandoned, existing housing crashed 30-50%.

That place is out in the middle of nowhere. Probably still like that today. He says riverside but probably riverside county, not city.

Any location people want to live has pretty much recovered today if not hit new highs.

Here is what riverside real estate has been doing.

 

[Bloodworth]

Just a hit piece. When the bubble popped the entire industry crashed. All unfinished developments where abandoned, existing housing crashed 30-50%.

That place is out in the middle of nowhere. Probably still like that today. He says riverside but probably riverside county, not city.

Any location people want to live has pretty much recovered today if not hit new highs.

Here is what riverside real estate has been doing.

For a few years there were these things called zombie houses. People who couldnt make payments and abandoned the property.

Houses went to crap.


Today there are not enough houses on the market in ny.

People are out bidding each other and and sellers are getting 20 to 40 thousand more then what the asking price is.

This next gen has a lot of their parents money and more wealthy foreigners then anything.

Wealthy and offered special loans help them. Special car loans, special home loans.

So they can pretend to be an American and drive a BMW and have a a home